1949: Mao's Timely Death

[puffyclouds]

Mao falls and dies in October 1949 with Liu Shaoqi, Deng Xiaoping, and Zhou Enlai emerging as the dominant politicians in China.  After a long discussion amongst themselves they agree that Mao's Great Leap Forward ideology is untenable.  How does Communist China develop with these three at the helm?

[lordroel]

Jul 9, 2017 5:54:56 GMT puffyclouds said:

Mao falls and dies in October 1949 with Liu Shaoqi, Deng Xiaoping, and Zhou Enlai emerging as the dominant politicians in China.  After a long discussion amongst themselves they agree that Mao's Great Leap Forward ideology is untenable.  How does Communist China develop with these three at the helm?

Something like This might happen: What-If: Mao Zedong dies in 1949

[stevep]

Jul 9, 2017 8:11:55 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 9, 2017 5:54:56 GMT puffyclouds said:

Mao falls and dies in October 1949 with Liu Shaoqi, Deng Xiaoping, and Zhou Enlai emerging as the dominant politicians in China.  After a long discussion amongst themselves they agree that Mao's Great Leap Forward ideology is untenable.  How does Communist China develop with these three at the helm?

Something like This might happen: What-If: Mao Zedong dies in 1949

  Very true.  I suspect overall China would have been better off without Mao.  However as that article says you might have seen bitter infighting between factions, including actual military conflict and also it staying closer to the Soviets longer.  Although since both nations/leaderships would have wanted to exert their own dominance or at least equality its likely that a split would have come sooner or later. 

  The worst scenario might be that a period of violent internal conflict might have ended with a Mao like figure emerging with a personality cult that is strengthen by the widespread desire of the party and many people for stability and hence such excesses being prolonged as a result.

  I wonder if, presuming a divided and less driven communist leadership, you might not see the intervention in the Korean war to prevent the collapse of the N Korean regime?  As long as MacArthur didn't do something stupid you might see Korean united and a hell of a lot of lives saved.  Although it would put the unified Korea right in the front line with borders with the Soviets and Chinese and you might not have seen it move as it did towards democracy.

 

[lordroel]

Jul 9, 2017 9:40:44 GMT stevep said:

Jul 9, 2017 8:11:55 GMT lordroel said:

Something like This might happen: What-If: Mao Zedong dies in 1949

  Very true.  I suspect overall China would have been better off without Mao.  However as that article says you might have seen bitter infighting between factions, including actual military conflict and also it staying closer to the Soviets longer.  Although since both nations/leaderships would have wanted to exert their own dominance or at least equality its likely that a split would have come sooner or later. 

  The worst scenario might be that a period of violent internal conflict might have ended with a Mao like figure emerging with a personality cult that is strengthen by the widespread desire of the party and many people for stability and hence such excesses being prolonged as a result.

  I wonder if, presuming a divided and less driven communist leadership, you might not see the intervention in the Korean war to prevent the collapse of the N Korean regime?  As long as MacArthur didn't do something stupid you might see Korean united and a hell of a lot of lives saved.  Although it would put the unified Korea right in the front line with borders with the Soviets and Chinese and you might not have seen it move as it did towards democracy.

 

I do Not think the Soviets are going to like the Chinese communist losing in China, i think we could see a bigger version of the Korean War beginning with the Soviet trying to back up the Chinese Communist and the United States backing the Chinese Nationalist.

[stevep]

Jul 9, 2017 9:43:15 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 9, 2017 9:40:44 GMT stevep said:

  Very true.  I suspect overall China would have been better off without Mao.  However as that article says you might have seen bitter infighting between factions, including actual military conflict and also it staying closer to the Soviets longer.  Although since both nations/leaderships would have wanted to exert their own dominance or at least equality its likely that a split would have come sooner or later. 

  The worst scenario might be that a period of violent internal conflict might have ended with a Mao like figure emerging with a personality cult that is strengthen by the widespread desire of the party and many people for stability and hence such excesses being prolonged as a result.

  I wonder if, presuming a divided and less driven communist leadership, you might not see the intervention in the Korean war to prevent the collapse of the N Korean regime?  As long as MacArthur didn't do something stupid you might see Korean united and a hell of a lot of lives saved.  Although it would put the unified Korea right in the front line with borders with the Soviets and Chinese and you might not have seen it move as it did towards democracy.

 

I do Not think the Soviets are going to like the Chinese communist losing in China, i think we could see a bigger version of the Korean War beginning with the Soviet trying to back up the Chinese Communist and the United States backing the Chinese Nationalist.

  Do you mean in Korea?  I was suggesting no Chinese intervention there rather than them losing?  Not assuming any fighting between UN and Chinese forces, unless as I say MacArthur or something else does something really stupid?

[lordroel]

Jul 9, 2017 9:53:47 GMT stevep said:

Jul 9, 2017 9:43:15 GMT lordroel said:

I do Not think the Soviets are going to like the Chinese communist losing in China, i think we could see a bigger version of the Korean War beginning with the Soviet trying to back up the Chinese Communist and the United States backing the Chinese Nationalist.

  Do you mean in Korea?  I was suggesting no Chinese intervention there rather than them losing?  Not assuming any fighting between UN and Chinese forces, unless as I say MacArthur or something else does something really stupid?

No i mean instead of a Korean War we with Mao's timely death in 1949 will see a Chinese War instead, maybe the UN lead by the United States who backs the Chinese Nationalists versus the Soviet Union who backs the Chinese Communist.

[puffyclouds]

The US was pretty occupied with the Berlin Airlift in the deciding months of the Chinese Civil War. You would probably need to have the Navy and Marines given free hand.

[lordroel]

Jul 9, 2017 22:49:01 GMT puffyclouds said:

The US was pretty occupied with the Berlin Airlift in the deciding months of the Chinese Civil War. You would probably need to have the Navy and Marines given free hand.

The United States Marine Corps would most likely expand Operation Beleaguer

[doug181]

The communists make break up into warring warlord like factions?

[lordroel]

Jul 11, 2017 14:09:57 GMT doug181 said:

The communists make break up into warring warlord like factions?

Ore the Chinese Communist held areas become part of the Soviet Union.