Post by Tipsyfish on Aug 14, 2017 16:24:44 GMT
Link to Part 1:
Link to Part 2:
Germany entered the war with a two-front war in mind called the schlieffen plan. The Schlieffen plan was created by Alfred Von Schlieffen as a thought experiment, a way to deal with Germany's neighbors. France to the west, and Russia to the east. There would be no way that Germany could win a prolonged defensive war against France and Russia, so the plan was to quickly maneuver around the French defenses by invading Belgium, take Paris, make peace on the western front and send the troops to deal with Russia. During its original construction. The Schlieffen plan also envisioned an invasion of southern Netherlands, allowing the armies to have more maneuvering room and additional railways as they advanced through Belgium and into northern France. This part of the plan was scraped however when Von Molke the younger took over from Schlieffen as Commander in Chief in 1906. The main reason for this was due to the modernization of the Dutch military. Among other things, he made the first and second armies, numbering some 600,000 men, advance along only a 12-mile gap through Belgium right towards the defensive positions of Liege. Meaning that quick capture of the intact Belgian railways was essential. As you can imagine, it didn't work out that well. The railways were destroyed, resistance was heavy, and delays were long. The Germans got stopped at the first battle of the Marne and the war on the western front turned into a slow, bloody grind. The problem was that during its construction in 1905 the plan was out-dated, and by 1914 it was in-flexiable, un-realistic, and didn't take into account the advances of military technology and the change of national armies. The Russians that were first thought to take at least 6 weeks to mobilize, took 3, the Russian army had reformed, expanded, and modernized to some degree from its 1905 counterpart.
Now, for this scenario, we will have the Netherlands allow the Germans to use their railways for their troop movement. The Netherlands wouldn’t even have to join the Central Powers for this, the Dutch government was rather pro-German at this point, and had some adjustments in the past occurred to further push the Netherlands into the German camp, then it is entirely possible for this scenario to occur. As to how this would be perceived within the warring nations is in question, it could very well be interrupted in an extreme way, basically being a move to ally themselves with the Central Powers, or being forced too under pressure from a stronger nation. For this scenario, let us assume that the Netherlands are viewed as a Central Powers ally, even if war hasn’t been officially declared by either party.
So, what could the Netherlands bring to the table? Well, the Netherlands were classed as a second-rate power. Their European peace time army numbered some 90,000 men. Once the war broke out, this number increased to 200,000. This number could be more than doubled and be ready to be put out onto the field in just a few days. Another 50,000 men were stationed within national defenses like the Waterlinie and the Defense line of Amsterdam. These fortifications had been in disrepair for some time and the advent of new heavy artillery had further rendered these defenses obsolete. The European army had 2,000 artillery pieces of which 700 pieces were used in fortifications. The field armies lacked much in the way of heavy or modern artillery, and the sieges guns in the forts had long needed an upgrade. In the home waters, they could muster 6 heavy destroyers, a dozen cruisers, seven costal defense ships 16 torpedo boats and a number of smaller craft.
The Dutch had around 60,000 men within its colonies, with the large majority of them being in the East Indies. The army in the East Indies consisted of 30,000 regular troops as well as 25,000 native troops, these men had access to around 400 artillery pieces, with only 60 of them being rapid fire. A large portion of their navy was stationed here as well, numbering six submarines, 6 coastal defense ships, 8 light destroyers, 14 torpedo boats and 26 smaller craft. When concentrated, the British Eastern Fleet was more of a match for a combined Dutch-German force especially with the assistance of the Japanese Imperial navy, but at the start of the war, the Eastern Fleet was scattered among its Asiatic Stations. Therefore, if the Central Power force takes the initiative before the British can concentrate, there is the possibility that they can defeat a portion of it in detail like the OTL Battle of Coronel.
German colonial possessions in the Pacific had all fallen by the end of 1914. However, this was due to the fact that Germany didn’t have adequate forces to hold the colonies against the British and Japanese forces. The East Indies would be a very difficult nut to crack even with large committed forces from the Entente. As to whether or not an invasion of the East Indies would happen before the war is over is un-certain, but what would be certain is that it would be a very bloody and slow invasion.
Without even taking into account the Dutch military strength, the simple land access for the German army to a much larger front would put them on track to take Paris. A good portion of the Belgian defenses could be outmaneuvered and dislodged, including the positions at Liege, and Antwerp. These positions were what held up large sections of the German 1st army, that, combined with logistic issues is what allowed the French and British to be able to transfer men to block the German first and second army at the battle of the Marne. There's probably no race to the sea, as at least one German or Dutch army is already in position along the coast. This army could probably get to Calais on the Northern French coast if the British don’t fight them and help defend against the main German punch to Paris instead. If they do fight this army, a battle would develop somewhere between Antwerp and Calais without either side really getting the upper hand, if this happens, the German armies aiming for Paris will be able to move far more freely then in OTL. If the British still deploy as they did historical, they'll probably have to retreat south of the Seine river to restore their logistics after the initial fights - leaving this coastal army now free to continue far further south, or possibly even continue further along the coast, capturing major ports along the way. It is very likely that Paris would fall in the first push and France would seek peace terms by the end of the year.
With the western front cleared. The Germans could bring their armies over to the eastern front. Russia wouldn't be able to last very long against the Central powers at that point. Their first offensive had been stopped in the disastrous battle of Tanninburg in September of that year which would still occur in this scenario. Tanninburg and its subsequent battles at the Masurian lake saw the destruction of The Russian first and second armies. While the southern offensives into Galicia was met with much more success, Confidence in the Russian army was still heavily shattered. This was further compounded by the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive that occurred in Mid-May of 1915. This offensive saw the Russians pushed back hundreds of Kilometers, and was only stopped by logistic problems. If that offensive kicked off in this time-line then you would see double if not more the number of German troops being allocated to it, the Russian lines would be pushed as far back as supplies allowed, and the eastern front would collapse. Granted, it's doubtful that Tsar Nichalos would have waited so long before trying to sue for peace.
What would Germany Europe look like after this scenario? Well, we would see a successful Central Powers with Peace terms being sent to the French and Russians. The exact terms of the conditions cannot be 100% predicated, however it is likely that Germany would use the war to expand its influence both at home and on a colonial level at the expense of the French. This would secure German dominance in Europe. As to the immediate ramifications of such a scenario, it would all be up to speculation. IOTL, the Russian Civil war raged on for five years, turning the Russian empire into a communist state. This war would still cost Russia immensely, with over five million estimated Casualties, least going by OTL numbers. Food and other material shortages would still plague the major cities, hatred for the Tsar would still be heavy. A Revolution was guaranteed to happen, as to the extent that the Revolution would be, is hard to predict.
Now, for this scenario, we will have the Netherlands allow the Germans to use their railways for their troop movement. The Netherlands wouldn’t even have to join the Central Powers for this, the Dutch government was rather pro-German at this point, and had some adjustments in the past occurred to further push the Netherlands into the German camp, then it is entirely possible for this scenario to occur. As to how this would be perceived within the warring nations is in question, it could very well be interrupted in an extreme way, basically being a move to ally themselves with the Central Powers, or being forced too under pressure from a stronger nation. For this scenario, let us assume that the Netherlands are viewed as a Central Powers ally, even if war hasn’t been officially declared by either party.
So, what could the Netherlands bring to the table? Well, the Netherlands were classed as a second-rate power. Their European peace time army numbered some 90,000 men. Once the war broke out, this number increased to 200,000. This number could be more than doubled and be ready to be put out onto the field in just a few days. Another 50,000 men were stationed within national defenses like the Waterlinie and the Defense line of Amsterdam. These fortifications had been in disrepair for some time and the advent of new heavy artillery had further rendered these defenses obsolete. The European army had 2,000 artillery pieces of which 700 pieces were used in fortifications. The field armies lacked much in the way of heavy or modern artillery, and the sieges guns in the forts had long needed an upgrade. In the home waters, they could muster 6 heavy destroyers, a dozen cruisers, seven costal defense ships 16 torpedo boats and a number of smaller craft.
The Dutch had around 60,000 men within its colonies, with the large majority of them being in the East Indies. The army in the East Indies consisted of 30,000 regular troops as well as 25,000 native troops, these men had access to around 400 artillery pieces, with only 60 of them being rapid fire. A large portion of their navy was stationed here as well, numbering six submarines, 6 coastal defense ships, 8 light destroyers, 14 torpedo boats and 26 smaller craft. When concentrated, the British Eastern Fleet was more of a match for a combined Dutch-German force especially with the assistance of the Japanese Imperial navy, but at the start of the war, the Eastern Fleet was scattered among its Asiatic Stations. Therefore, if the Central Power force takes the initiative before the British can concentrate, there is the possibility that they can defeat a portion of it in detail like the OTL Battle of Coronel.
German colonial possessions in the Pacific had all fallen by the end of 1914. However, this was due to the fact that Germany didn’t have adequate forces to hold the colonies against the British and Japanese forces. The East Indies would be a very difficult nut to crack even with large committed forces from the Entente. As to whether or not an invasion of the East Indies would happen before the war is over is un-certain, but what would be certain is that it would be a very bloody and slow invasion.
Without even taking into account the Dutch military strength, the simple land access for the German army to a much larger front would put them on track to take Paris. A good portion of the Belgian defenses could be outmaneuvered and dislodged, including the positions at Liege, and Antwerp. These positions were what held up large sections of the German 1st army, that, combined with logistic issues is what allowed the French and British to be able to transfer men to block the German first and second army at the battle of the Marne. There's probably no race to the sea, as at least one German or Dutch army is already in position along the coast. This army could probably get to Calais on the Northern French coast if the British don’t fight them and help defend against the main German punch to Paris instead. If they do fight this army, a battle would develop somewhere between Antwerp and Calais without either side really getting the upper hand, if this happens, the German armies aiming for Paris will be able to move far more freely then in OTL. If the British still deploy as they did historical, they'll probably have to retreat south of the Seine river to restore their logistics after the initial fights - leaving this coastal army now free to continue far further south, or possibly even continue further along the coast, capturing major ports along the way. It is very likely that Paris would fall in the first push and France would seek peace terms by the end of the year.
With the western front cleared. The Germans could bring their armies over to the eastern front. Russia wouldn't be able to last very long against the Central powers at that point. Their first offensive had been stopped in the disastrous battle of Tanninburg in September of that year which would still occur in this scenario. Tanninburg and its subsequent battles at the Masurian lake saw the destruction of The Russian first and second armies. While the southern offensives into Galicia was met with much more success, Confidence in the Russian army was still heavily shattered. This was further compounded by the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive that occurred in Mid-May of 1915. This offensive saw the Russians pushed back hundreds of Kilometers, and was only stopped by logistic problems. If that offensive kicked off in this time-line then you would see double if not more the number of German troops being allocated to it, the Russian lines would be pushed as far back as supplies allowed, and the eastern front would collapse. Granted, it's doubtful that Tsar Nichalos would have waited so long before trying to sue for peace.
What would Germany Europe look like after this scenario? Well, we would see a successful Central Powers with Peace terms being sent to the French and Russians. The exact terms of the conditions cannot be 100% predicated, however it is likely that Germany would use the war to expand its influence both at home and on a colonial level at the expense of the French. This would secure German dominance in Europe. As to the immediate ramifications of such a scenario, it would all be up to speculation. IOTL, the Russian Civil war raged on for five years, turning the Russian empire into a communist state. This war would still cost Russia immensely, with over five million estimated Casualties, least going by OTL numbers. Food and other material shortages would still plague the major cities, hatred for the Tsar would still be heavy. A Revolution was guaranteed to happen, as to the extent that the Revolution would be, is hard to predict.
Link to Part 2:
In OTL the war destroyed the German monarchy, but ITTL the German Kaiser remains a predominate figure throughout the 20th century. His power would start to weaken over-time as more democratic or socialist forces in Germany gain power, it would be likely that the monarch would eventually turn into little more than a simple figure-head. The German Chancholler Theobald Hollweg had drafted the Septemberprogramm in 1914 that stated German war goals and aimed peace terms for the ongoing conflict. These terms included annexing Luxembourg into the German Empire, annexing or creating a vassal state out of Belgium, with them ceding the eastern end of their nation up to Antwerp. For France they wanted a strip of land connecting Germany or Belgium to Dunkirk on the English Channel as well has 10 million marks in reparations and destruction of fortifications. Having these be the final peace treaty I find to be rather dubious. The German government never approved as this list as being the “stated” war goals, so much more reasonable peace terms would likely be proposed. The small nation of Luxembourg may very well be annexed into Germany proper as well as some adjustments along the French border though, primarily in the area of Longwy-Brier or the whole Lorraine province. This region was rich in coal, limestone and iron, producing close to 80% of Frances pre-war Iron Ore and contained a large amount of varied resources within a rather compact area, which was something heavily sought after. With this land, Germany would not only cripple Frances iron production, but also produce nearly half of all Iron ore in Europe.
Many may look at the Treaty of Brest Litovsk as what German territorial ambitions would be in the east. However, this thought is almost certainly incorrect. When the treaty was presented, the Central Powers were on the brink of starvation, exhaustion and bankruptcy and wanted to make sure that Russia could not be a threat to them in the near future. The land taken was not only to cripple Russian population and industry, but also to get grain, meat, and other food products to prevent starvation both at home and on the front lines. The more realistic ambitions in the east would likely only consist of ceding Russian Poland, and Lithuania to the Germans.
The Austro-Hungarian empire split apart into four separate nations towards the end of 1918, but even if the Empire comes out of this alternate war relatively un-scathed, it will still be near collapse. It had been in decline for over a century and ethnic tension was about to its breaking point. The main Austrian army had all but been destroyed during the Russian counter-offensive into Galicia at the end of 1914, and various minorities (primarily Slavs) within the Austrian army actually joined the invading Russians. Other’s like the Czechs were reluctant to fight away from their cultural homeland as they did not have equal rights through-out the empire. Land gains for the Austrians would be limited to putting Serbia as a client state under their control, if a Polish puppet state is created by the Germans, it is possible that the Polish strip of the empire would join that state. The death of emperor Franz Joseph in 1916 removed one of the few factors that held the empire together. While the new Emperor could attempt to improve the political conditions of the minority, he would be faced with constant back-lash from the larger ethic groups such as the Germans and Hungarians, that didn’t want to lose any political control within the Empire.
The Ottoman Empire would likely survive for a few decades after this war. Nationalism within the rest of the empire, had mainly sparked during the late 19th century, and while many cultural /nationalist groups were still active by WW1, many demanded autonomy, rather than outright independence. The Arab Revolt that occurred in OTL wouldn’t occur, it got a large amount of funding from the British and French, as well as some military support, it is possible to have them still fund these nomads for their own interests in the area (primarily the British) but they simply don’t have the military might to achieve OTL success, remember, the Ottomans were fighting on five fronts for a long period of the war. How long will they last after this war? Who knows, they could survive until the modern day and beyond, or more likely be destroyed as time went on in this alternate time-line.
How would Russia and France be after this war? It is difficult to predict. The Russian Revolution that occurred IOTL, likely wouldn’t occur, however, a revolution of some kind is almost certain to happen. A defeat would shatter what mass confidence people had for the Tsars government, and a revolution had already occurred in 1905. As to whether or not this revolution would mirror the 1905 one is uncertain. It may very well be a repeat, with the Tsar quote in quote, giving more power to a national assembly, one which he never used. Or he may well be over-thrown. It’s impossible to know. The dominate forces behind the revolution would not be communist in nature. The Petrograd Soviet and communist forces in general, didn’t have much power until over a year later IOTL. In this scenario, they would likely just side with left/socialist factions.
France may very well experience of a revolution of her own, but we simply don’t know for certain. A large amount of the far-right had been opposed to the war at the start, while many of the far-left, socialists and proto-fascists had supported the government’s decision for war. While this might cause support for the united left to fall, it’s uncertain if this would cause the Raymond Poincaré government to fall. If a revolution does occur, the communists wouldn’t even be a factor. The French communist party wasn’t even established until the split of the popular front in 1920, following the Communist International founded by Lenin in 1919.
Many may look at the Treaty of Brest Litovsk as what German territorial ambitions would be in the east. However, this thought is almost certainly incorrect. When the treaty was presented, the Central Powers were on the brink of starvation, exhaustion and bankruptcy and wanted to make sure that Russia could not be a threat to them in the near future. The land taken was not only to cripple Russian population and industry, but also to get grain, meat, and other food products to prevent starvation both at home and on the front lines. The more realistic ambitions in the east would likely only consist of ceding Russian Poland, and Lithuania to the Germans.
The Austro-Hungarian empire split apart into four separate nations towards the end of 1918, but even if the Empire comes out of this alternate war relatively un-scathed, it will still be near collapse. It had been in decline for over a century and ethnic tension was about to its breaking point. The main Austrian army had all but been destroyed during the Russian counter-offensive into Galicia at the end of 1914, and various minorities (primarily Slavs) within the Austrian army actually joined the invading Russians. Other’s like the Czechs were reluctant to fight away from their cultural homeland as they did not have equal rights through-out the empire. Land gains for the Austrians would be limited to putting Serbia as a client state under their control, if a Polish puppet state is created by the Germans, it is possible that the Polish strip of the empire would join that state. The death of emperor Franz Joseph in 1916 removed one of the few factors that held the empire together. While the new Emperor could attempt to improve the political conditions of the minority, he would be faced with constant back-lash from the larger ethic groups such as the Germans and Hungarians, that didn’t want to lose any political control within the Empire.
The Ottoman Empire would likely survive for a few decades after this war. Nationalism within the rest of the empire, had mainly sparked during the late 19th century, and while many cultural /nationalist groups were still active by WW1, many demanded autonomy, rather than outright independence. The Arab Revolt that occurred in OTL wouldn’t occur, it got a large amount of funding from the British and French, as well as some military support, it is possible to have them still fund these nomads for their own interests in the area (primarily the British) but they simply don’t have the military might to achieve OTL success, remember, the Ottomans were fighting on five fronts for a long period of the war. How long will they last after this war? Who knows, they could survive until the modern day and beyond, or more likely be destroyed as time went on in this alternate time-line.
How would Russia and France be after this war? It is difficult to predict. The Russian Revolution that occurred IOTL, likely wouldn’t occur, however, a revolution of some kind is almost certain to happen. A defeat would shatter what mass confidence people had for the Tsars government, and a revolution had already occurred in 1905. As to whether or not this revolution would mirror the 1905 one is uncertain. It may very well be a repeat, with the Tsar quote in quote, giving more power to a national assembly, one which he never used. Or he may well be over-thrown. It’s impossible to know. The dominate forces behind the revolution would not be communist in nature. The Petrograd Soviet and communist forces in general, didn’t have much power until over a year later IOTL. In this scenario, they would likely just side with left/socialist factions.
France may very well experience of a revolution of her own, but we simply don’t know for certain. A large amount of the far-right had been opposed to the war at the start, while many of the far-left, socialists and proto-fascists had supported the government’s decision for war. While this might cause support for the united left to fall, it’s uncertain if this would cause the Raymond Poincaré government to fall. If a revolution does occur, the communists wouldn’t even be a factor. The French communist party wasn’t even established until the split of the popular front in 1920, following the Communist International founded by Lenin in 1919.
