Britain's worst nightmare: Japan strikes British colonies in 1939, takes Ceylon and liberates India.

[simpleton]

After 2 years fighting in China with heavy IJA casualties, Yamamoto convinces army, navy and government leaders that the expensive IJN can be used to acquire rapidly invaluable, poorly defended British and French territories much faster and at a lower cost than gaining large territories of little value in China, fighting against a poorly supplied, but huge army.

Yamamoto explains that the American isolationist movement is very strong and likely to become stronger if Britain & France are rapidly defeated in the east, so that the US is not likely to enter the war. Moreover, during the attack (which will certainly please Germany), Japan can ask Germany to threaten Holland with war if it declares war on Japan. Accordingly, Japan will only face weak British and French forces for the few months it will take to finish the campaign.

Yamamoto is ordered to prepare a detailed plan for the campaign. He already has it and presents it:

On day zero, Japanese troops arrive in merchant ships in Hong Kong, British Borneo, Malaya, Singapore, Mauritius, the Burmese oil port, Penang, Ceylon, Rabaul, Port Moresby, Rangoon, Hanoi, Hobart (Tasmania), Wellington (NZ), New Caledonia and Reunion. A destroyer and a light cruiser will also arrive to refuel in each port (carrying more troops and supporting the invasions with artillery). Submarines will be ready to start sinking warships in these ports and provide artillery support after using up their torpedoes, when the attack begins. When ports are seized, other ships will land with reinforcements and heavy cruisers will arrive to provide covering fire. Carrier planes will provide support in all necessary places. The initial operation will secure intact oil wells and refineries, vital for Japan and ports and airfields to reinforce and supply the invasions.
Japan will inform Holland that the war is limited to Britain and France offer an alliance with Holland to secure the DEI. Any attack from the DEI will result in its invasion by Japan.
Japan offers Thailand an alliance to liberate the territories stolen by France and Britain from Thailand.

The capture of Reunion, Mauritius and Ceylon will secure the Indian Ocean for Japan and exclude the allies. On Day 1 Japan will announce to the world the liberation of India, which will make Japan popular in the US. Ceylon will fall within weeks. Japan will induce India to sign an alliance with Japan, in order to invade other British colonies, Persia, the middle east, etc, together and share them. India cannot refuse the alliance, for Japan will be its only source of oil, steel, grain, etc, and trade partner. The millions of Indian troops will help Japan and Germany considerably. When Japan and India capture Persia and the midle east (expelling the British), Germany and Japan will be able to link forces, providing Germany and Italy with oil, rubber, tin, nickel, etc, 

The rapid allied debacle in the far and middle east and the large Indian army will probably induce the Italy, Turkey, Rumania, etc, to form the a coalition with India, Germany, japan and Thailand, securing victory and enabling the IJA's plan to invade China and the USSR successfully.

After seizing French and British territories and securing oil, Japan can invade at leasure even weaker and more valuable, but much larger DEI.

[lordroel]

Aug 24, 2017 17:41:08 GMT simpleton said:

After 2 years fighting in China with heavy IJA casualties, Yamamoto convinces army, navy and government leaders that the expensive IJN can be used to acquire rapidly invaluable, poorly defended British and French territories much faster and at a lower cost than gaining large territories of little value in China, fighting against a poorly supplied, but huge army.

Yamamoto explains that the American isolationist movement is very strong and likely to become stronger if Britain & France are rapidly defeated in the east, so that the US is not likely to enter the war. Moreover, during the attack (which will certainly please Germany), Japan can ask Germany to threaten Holland with war if it declares war on Japan. Accordingly, Japan will only face weak British and French forces for the few months it will take to finish the campaign.

Yamamoto is ordered to prepare a detailed plan for the campaign. He already has it and presents it:

On day zero, Japanese troops arrive in merchant ships in Hong Kong, British Borneo, Malaya, Singapore, Mauritius, the Burmese oil port, Penang, Ceylon, Rabaul, Port Moresby, Rangoon, Hanoi, Hobart (Tasmania), Wellington (NZ), New Caledonia and Reunion. A destroyer and a light cruiser will also arrive to refuel in each port (carrying more troops and supporting the invasions with artillery). Submarines will be ready to start sinking warships in these ports and provide artillery support after using up their torpedoes, when the attack begins. When ports are seized, other ships will land with reinforcements and heavy cruisers will arrive to provide covering fire. Carrier planes will provide support in all necessary places. The initial operation will secure intact oil wells and refineries, vital for Japan and ports and airfields to reinforce and supply the invasions.
Japan will inform Holland that the war is limited to Britain and France offer an alliance with Holland to secure the DEI. Any attack from the DEI will result in its invasion by Japan.
Japan offers Thailand an alliance to liberate the territories stolen by France and Britain from Thailand.

The capture of Reunion, Mauritius and Ceylon will secure the Indian Ocean for Japan and exclude the allies. On Day 1 Japan will announce to the world the liberation of India, which will make Japan popular in the US. Ceylon will fall within weeks. Japan will induce India to sign an alliance with Japan, in order to invade other British colonies, Persia, the middle east, etc, together and share them. India cannot refuse the alliance, for Japan will be its only source of oil, steel, grain, etc, and trade partner. The millions of Indian troops will help Japan and Germany considerably. When Japan and India capture Persia and the midle east (expelling the British), Germany and Japan will be able to link forces, providing Germany and Italy with oil, rubber, tin, nickel, etc, 

The rapid allied debacle in the far and middle east and the large Indian army will probably induce the Italy, Turkey, Rumania, etc, to form the a coalition with India, Germany, japan and Thailand, securing victory and enabling the IJA's plan to invade China and the USSR successfully.

After seizing French and British territories and securing oil, Japan can invade at leasure even weaker and more valuable, but much larger DEI.

So they bypass Netherlands and American hold possessions.

[stevep]

So they are operating with what supply bases? It was only when the Japanese occupied southern French Indo-China in spring 41 [IIRC] that they were in range to attack Malaya.

Your idea of a massively conplex operation to land small numbers of troops across a fair proportion of the globle may have some successes but in general is going to fail badly because of the difficulty of co-ordinating such attacks. Once the defenders are aware, which will only take a few hours at most those isolated and undefended MS are going to be easy meat for the defenders. If the Japanese scatter light elements of their fleet as you suggest a lot of it is also going to be lost quickly and the 4 fleet carriers they had in operation at the time are too few to support more than a fraction of the landings even if they have infinite range. Also all those MS and scattered military units are going to raise a lot of questions.

Even if Ceylon was taken why would India suddenly accept being a Japanese colony, especially given the example of what's happening in China. Further so when Indian troops are being killed across a large chunk of the world by the Japanese. It will, as history showed, raise millions of volunteers to fight to defend Indian and the British empire but for a far more brutal Japanese empire?

This all assumes that the IJA is going to put its prized war in China on the back burner to enable the Navy, its bitter rival, to gain massive prestige. Not to mention that Japan has taken on two European great powers who may decide under those circumstances to come to terms with Hitler to free up forces to crush an overstretched Japan. This is in Hitler's interests as well as he wants to get in Russia ASAP. Or that if you think the US, already deeply concerned about Japanese actions will be happy with it suddenly seeking to massively expand its empire with sneak attacks on friendly powers that are furthermore doing an important task for the US - namely keeping the Nazis and Communists at a distance.

[simpleton]

lordroel:
Yes, they only invade British and French colonies initially, to secure intact oil wells and refineries in B. Borneo and Burma. The DEI is easy pickings afterwards. The philippines are irrelevant, as long as isolationists prevail in US politics.

stevep,
Supply and reinforcement ships are underway. The initial attack is only to secure ports and airfields. The Japanese supplies were ridiculous during the 700 km advance down the Malay Peninsula, they lived mostly thanks to captured British supplies (much like Rommel in Libya).In this scenario the Japanese not only capture British goods at the peacetime ports, they have ships (and in Ceylon, B. Borneo, Malaya, Singapore and Indochina also planes) arriving there shortly after the invasion with supplies and reinforcements. British forces in these colonies in 1939 are ridiculous. In British Borneo there are a handful of Indian police, in Malaya and Ceylon not only are there few British, the locals hate the British and are ready to get rid of them (they don't know yet that the Japanese are worse). Mauritius, Reunion, Tasmania, Wellington, Rabaul and New Caledonia have ridiculous forces and are unprepared for war. 

The IJA is in deep trouble in China (the government and HQ were against it and a few rogue, idiotic officers started the invasion), the IJA is in a similar situation to the WM in the URSS in the winter of 1941. It expected a quick campaign with few losses and rapid Chinese capitulation and they are consuming lots of munitions and troops fighting millions of troops, without any light at the end of the tunnel. Japan is spending its monetary reserves importing oil, scrap, etc, and gaining few minerals for its troubles. B. Borneo has oil, Ceylon was the main rubber and cinnamon exporter and the key to controlling the Indian Ocean, ruining Britain and to millions of Indian troops as allies, instead of enemies of the axis.

[simpleton]

The exclusion of the allies from the Indian Ocean prevents any Anzac and Indian troops arriving in Egypt for Britain, certainly facilitating Italian invasion of Egypt and Sudan.

The rapid fall of the far east fleet and colonies (especially the liberation of India and its joining the axis occupy the press at the time of the ridiculous Phoney war in Europe. The British and French are shocked. Chamberlain's government (including Churchill as 1st lord of the admiralty) is toppled. The new government cannot cope with the rapid shipping losses (Japanese submarines, light cruisers, G3M and G4M, long range torpedo bombers in Reunion, etc, sink, damage or capture more ships in December 1939 than the KM did in all of 1939) and the waning American supplies. Britain sues for peace, which also forces France to sue for peace.

[lordroel]

Aug 25, 2017 18:30:52 GMT simpleton said:

The exclusion of the allies from the Indian Ocean prevents any Anzac and Indian troops arriving in Egypt for Britain, certainly facilitating Italian invasion of Egypt and Sudan.

Are the Italians going to do better in this time period because they will still be defeated by the British.

[simpleton]

OTL the Italians were defeated mostly by Indians and some Anzacs in Egypt-Libya, Ethiopia, Somalia, etc,and with Matilda II tanks (impervious to Italian tank and AT guns) deployed with plenty of time in 1940, that's not happening here (Japan ruling the Indian Ocean and liberating India and Matilda tanks being badly needed in France)
OTL mussolini did not use any surprise, nor did he warn his border forts in Libya, his merchant fleet, etc, that Italy was at war and took months to do anything, so the British surprised him. ATL he is emmulating japanese surprise and infiltration tactics which proved so effective in Ceylon, etc,

ATL it is not the IEA which is isolated, but Kenya, Rhodesia, Madagascar, etc, the Italian fleet in IEA is not wiped out, but reinforced by the IJA, both invade Aden (defended by Indians)

[oldbill]

Ok, WHEN in 1939 does this take place? Secondly, WHY? Japan has all the resources it needs in 1939, it is only its conduct in China that causes the embargoes by European nations and the US that lead to its shortages. So, again, why would they start a second major war?

[lordroel]

Aug 24, 2017 17:41:08 GMT simpleton said:

After 2 years fighting in China with heavy IJA casualties, Yamamoto convinces army, navy and government leaders that the expensive IJN can be used to acquire rapidly invaluable, poorly defended British and French territories much faster and at a lower cost than gaining large territories of little value in China, fighting against a poorly supplied, but huge army.

Yamamoto explains that the American isolationist movement is very strong and likely to become stronger if Britain & France are rapidly defeated in the east, so that the US is not likely to enter the war. Moreover, during the attack (which will certainly please Germany), Japan can ask Germany to threaten Holland with war if it declares war on Japan. Accordingly, Japan will only face weak British and French forces for the few months it will take to finish the campaign.

Yamamoto is ordered to prepare a detailed plan for the campaign. He already has it and presents it:

On day zero, Japanese troops arrive in merchant ships in Hong Kong, British Borneo, Malaya, Singapore, Mauritius, the Burmese oil port, Penang, Ceylon, Rabaul, Port Moresby, Rangoon, Hanoi, Hobart (Tasmania), Wellington (NZ), New Caledonia and Reunion. A destroyer and a light cruiser will also arrive to refuel in each port (carrying more troops and supporting the invasions with artillery). Submarines will be ready to start sinking warships in these ports and provide artillery support after using up their torpedoes, when the attack begins. When ports are seized, other ships will land with reinforcements and heavy cruisers will arrive to provide covering fire. Carrier planes will provide support in all necessary places. The initial operation will secure intact oil wells and refineries, vital for Japan and ports and airfields to reinforce and supply the invasions.
Japan will inform Holland that the war is limited to Britain and France offer an alliance with Holland to secure the DEI. Any attack from the DEI will result in its invasion by Japan.
Japan offers Thailand an alliance to liberate the territories stolen by France and Britain from Thailand.

The capture of Reunion, Mauritius and Ceylon will secure the Indian Ocean for Japan and exclude the allies. On Day 1 Japan will announce to the world the liberation of India, which will make Japan popular in the US. Ceylon will fall within weeks. Japan will induce India to sign an alliance with Japan, in order to invade other British colonies, Persia, the middle east, etc, together and share them. India cannot refuse the alliance, for Japan will be its only source of oil, steel, grain, etc, and trade partner. The millions of Indian troops will help Japan and Germany considerably. When Japan and India capture Persia and the midle east (expelling the British), Germany and Japan will be able to link forces, providing Germany and Italy with oil, rubber, tin, nickel, etc, 

The rapid allied debacle in the far and middle east and the large Indian army will probably induce the Italy, Turkey, Rumania, etc, to form the a coalition with India, Germany, japan and Thailand, securing victory and enabling the IJA's plan to invade China and the USSR successfully.

After seizing French and British territories and securing oil, Japan can invade at leasure even weaker and more valuable, but much larger DEI.

What about the Tientsin incident, this could lead to war between Japan and the United kingdom.

[stevep]

Feb 1, 2018 10:17:26 GMT oldbill said:

Ok, WHEN in 1939 does this take place? Secondly, WHY? Japan has all the resources it needs in 1939, it is only its conduct in China that causes the embargoes by European nations and the US that lead to its shortages. So, again, why would they start a second major war?

  The author of the thread was rather well known for producing subjects which were wildly unrealistic and ignoring any attempts to bring reality into the discussion.  Got to the point where I automatically ignored threads he started.  I think he hasn't posted for a while so best not to bother.

  Lordroel - If the Japanese attacked then, it could well negate the war in Europe as Britain and France would be too busy to support Poland so you would probably get a German attack on Poland, followed with a year at the most with war between Stalin and Hitler.  [Hitler might not be the immediate aggressor in that conflict as under those circumstances there's unlikely to be a Nazi-Soviet Pact and Stalin would be very twitchy about the Germans occupying all of Poland.

  The Japanese were markedly weaker at this point, with no Zeros and two less CVs as well as other ships still in refit/reconstruction so your likely to see a fairly long war but with Japan eventually losing as they don't have the resources for a long war, especially not with so much of their army bogged down in China.  Also they lack the bases for a realistic attack on Malaya and neighbouring regions, hence the rather odd idea of a coordinated massed sneaking of troops into multiple colonies via merchant ships.  I don't think they even have the parts of China bordering FIC at this point so everything would have to come by sea with the nearest base being Hainan islands.  Also of course it assumes that the US does nothing, which is likely initially but you could then see the sort of economic embargo that pressurised the Japanese into the Pearl Harbour attack OTL, with their forces already bogged down fighting China, Britain, France and probably the Netherlands as well.

[lordroel]

Feb 2, 2018 23:00:39 GMT stevep said:

Feb 1, 2018 10:17:26 GMT oldbill said:

Ok, WHEN in 1939 does this take place? Secondly, WHY? Japan has all the resources it needs in 1939, it is only its conduct in China that causes the embargoes by European nations and the US that lead to its shortages. So, again, why would they start a second major war?

  The author of the thread was rather well known for producing subjects which were wildly unrealistic and ignoring any attempts to bring reality into the discussion.  Got to the point where I automatically ignored threads he started.  I think he hasn't posted for a while so best not to bother.

  Lordroel - If the Japanese attacked then, it could well negate the war in Europe as Britain and France would be too busy to support Poland so you would probably get a German attack on Poland, followed with a year at the most with war between Stalin and Hitler.  [Hitler might not be the immediate aggressor in that conflict as under those circumstances there's unlikely to be a Nazi-Soviet Pact and Stalin would be very twitchy about the Germans occupying all of Poland.

  The Japanese were markedly weaker at this point, with no Zeros and two less CVs as well as other ships still in refit/reconstruction so your likely to see a fairly long war but with Japan eventually losing as they don't have the resources for a long war, especially not with so much of their army bogged down in China.  Also they lack the bases for a realistic attack on Malaya and neighbouring regions, hence the rather odd idea of a coordinated massed sneaking of troops into multiple colonies via merchant ships.  I don't think they even have the parts of China bordering FIC at this point so everything would have to come by sea with the nearest base being Hainan islands.  Also of course it assumes that the US does nothing, which is likely initially but you could then see the sort of economic embargo that pressurised the Japanese into the Pearl Harbour attack OTL, with their forces already bogged down fighting China, Britain, France and probably the Netherlands as well.

A okay then, thanks for the explanation.