Yamamoto deploys his invincible fleet better. He wipes out the USN in Midway

[simpleton]

OTL Yamamoto divided his mighty fleet. He sent the carriers far ahead of the surface and invasion fleets. It was absurd to waste scarce planes and aviators and to risk the vital and vulnerable carriers to bomb and strafe Midway. It was also absurd to place Nagumo in charge of the carriers, while Yamamoto sailed in the rear in Yamato. It was also absurd to leave undamaged Zuikaku (the best fleet carrier) in Japan, only because she had lost most of her planes and aviators. An additional carrier would be invaluable to launch, retrieve and rearm planes in black. It would also provide additional AAA, space to transport spares, torpedoes, bombs, plane fuel, operating rooms, mechanics, etc, It was also absurd to send two carriers as decoys to Alaska with reduced plane complements to entice the USN, when the whole purpose of the operation is to attract the much smaller USN to Midway, in order to wipe it out in a decisive battle. 

ATL Yamamoto decides to place the much more abundant, less vulnerable and valuable BB (including Yamato) and CA (with 1/4 of the DD) in the van to shell Midway, saving his pilots to attack the carriers and for ground support during the invasionn of Midway. Yamamoto sails with the carrier fleet and places the surface fleet under Nagumo. The surface fleet will sail 100 miles ahead of the carrier fleet and will include 1/4 of available DD. The carrier fleet will include all carriers (also Ryujo, Junyo, Zuiho and Zuikaku with her few planes, the few surviving planes from Shokaku and 12 planes from each of the other 4 fleet carriers), 1/2 of available DD and all CL. The carrier fleet sails 100 miles behind Nagumo's fleet and provides CAP when it comes within attack distance from Midway. The surface fleet is to arrive at 0200 and shell Midway for 26 hours 16,000 shells under 6" (destroyer guns, etc,), 8,000 of 6" shells and a thousand 8" shells. The invasion fleet will arrive before dawn when the bombardment stops and will land with naval gun and air support.

Although Nimitz knows in advance the disposition of the fleet and the time and place it will arrive, there is little he can do other than set up an ambush for the large carrier fleet and let the BB and CA wreak havoc in Midway

. Since surface ships will arrive at night and bomb continuously for a long time, it is pointless to launch the bombers from Midway , so planes are not deployed i PH. they avoid the destruction by shells, since they won't be able to land when they run out of fuel (the ships will still be shelling and the runways will be useless). Even if Midway or carrier planes attack the BB and CA, damage will be small (owing to much better armor than carriers and even if a BB or CA is sunk, the IJN will be much less affected, than if a fleet carrier is sunk will all planes and hands on board. Nimitz evacuates to Hawaii all US personnel from Midway, since it is untenable.

Accordingly, Nimitz places his fleet at point luck and orders them to ignore IJN surface BB, CA, CL and DD. Both USN carrier task forces are detected by the IJN surface fleet scout planes. both carrier fleets start to launch their waves simultaneously. However, the larger number of experienced IJN carriers result in a much larger wave taking off much faster (the IJN is using 8 carrier decks, Vs. the 3 USN, inexperienced carrier decks). The larger IJN CAP and the AAA devastate the smaller, poorly coordinated USN wave, which arrives piecemeal and attacks several carriers (the first each squadron encounters). In contrast, the large Japanese wave attacks in a coordinated manner the three USN carriers, penetrates the limited CAP and AAA and heavily damages all 3 ships within minutes, which are finished off by long lance torpedoes from carrier fleet DD and CL. When the 3 carriers are heavily damaged (even before they are sunk by torpedoes), IJN planes concentrate on USN CA, which are also attacked by IJN BB detached from Midway and DD and CL torpedoes. Within 5 hours both USN task forces are anihilated. The landing force does not encounter any opposition and rpidly occupies the island. without losses. However, Marines buried several tons of explosives timed to go off at 1000, which kill several thousand Japanese and disable key installations.

[steffen]

A landing on midway is a desaster for the japanese. They can´t win this... never.

Also the american intelligence knew very well how strong the japanese were. if Nimitz think the japanese are to strong he would not fight for midway... instead he sacrifice the base forces, who will slaughter the japanese invasion force, maybe sink a destroyer or two (similar to Wake). If the japanese take midway (how?) the americans will kill japanese ships who resupply it and bomb it around the clock...

Sorry, for sure the japanese should concentrate all their carriers... but they did not know that the enemy knew them comming. They belived in 2 US carriers, not 3, they had victory disease... The only change you could do pro japan is the lacking DD that is not detected by the divebombers and so the deadly strike need to return without finding the japanese carriers. With this you get one US carrier sunk (Yorktown), maybe later another?, but also the "victory" of the japanese because they slaughtered the torpedo bombers. Later - with the invasion force wiped out by the base force on midway, the japanese will retreat. Propably still thinking they sunk 2-3 US carriers (all they attack).

With their codes broken the only winning move is NOT to move at all.

[dayton3]

I can see only at best the Japanese managing a temporarily more favorable outcome to the Battle of Midway without impacting the war in the long run.

[raunchel]

Landing on Midway is an excellent way to lose a lot of manpower and ships trying to hold it. The American carrier fleet going down would be a setback, but it doesn't take them that long to come back with a much more powerful one, while the Japanese are even more overextended.

[steffen]

Mar 17, 2018 8:39:18 GMT raunchel said:

Landing on Midway is an excellent way to lose a lot of manpower and ships trying to hold it. The American carrier fleet going down would be a setback, but it doesn't take them that long to come back with a much more powerful one, while the Japanese are even more overextended.

Ah,

if the USN loose 2 or even 3 carriers it would be a deasaster for the allied effort to counterattack the japanese.

We have to understand that the racism in the USA (yellow subhumans beat us at coral sea, now they wiped out 3 carriers) would not be balanced by the defeat of the invasion force (here i see 99% casulties of the japanese forces, maybe 100%.. add in a few other ships, maybe a cruiser or Destroyer or two by ground forces, propably also some ships damaged/sunk by air force)

If this happens the USN has to stay on defence for at last 15 months (June 42 - Autum 43)... that also could influence the war in europe (both ways - either they concentrate MORE on the european sector or they draw more ressources into the pacific to defend the own bases... )

But i lack the imagination to see this total japanese victory. 

[lordroel]

Mar 19, 2018 10:40:49 GMT steffen said:

But i lack the imagination to see this total japanese victory. 

Especially as the United States can outproduce Japan.

[steffen]

Mar 19, 2018 14:47:31 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 19, 2018 10:40:49 GMT steffen said:

But i lack the imagination to see this total japanese victory. 

Especially as the United States can outproduce Japan.

Well, that is clear to me.
My point was about the "total victory" at midway... that was a battle with existing ships... no production surplus helps you here.
The "wipe out the USN at Midway"-scale-victory is difficult to see, because the japanese suffer the ammo and fuel to do that (wipe out = kill all destroyers, cruisers, carriers).

Yes, with more carriers, a more agressive japanese carrier admiral who ignore the island planes could - again with luck - still defeat the americans.
Maybe he even could cripple and - follow up-actions - sink all 3 US carriers.
But he could not hope to sink all american ships. All of them! 

The loss of the US carriers, esp. in a single sided engagement (Say the US planes do not find the japanese carriers - that destroyer move into the wrong direction (rudder damage ) in the critical moment, so the US dive bombers do not find the enemy, the torpedo bombers still get slaughtered and the counter strike - against carriers - again with more luck - find all 3 US carriers, sink all three, maybe an additional cruiser or 3... but - the others will survive. Even a total loss of the pilots (that would hurt, for sure) could only slow down the US gigant.
They will build fleet carriers, they will build up defence and at some point they will strike.

You can´t fight the USN in the pacific as japan, hoping to survive this war. For that you need the japan of 2018 switched with Japan 1941, so you have all the technology to really kill all US ships (japanese subs would do the trick, if you give em 3-4 years they will also have enough stuff to attack the US west coast, etc.), but with Japans capabilities of 1941? Never. Not in 1 million years in hell. Period.

The moment the japanese bombed pearl they were doomed. For sure - the war could have been more "interesting" = more casulties for the USA, but in the end the japanese have lost the war, propably by nukes. 

[stevep]

Steffen

To be honest Simpleton produced a number of ideas like this and didn't like any attempts to question his assumptions. As such after a while I ignored his posts and I think he hasn't posted here for a while. IMHO your probably wasting your time trying to get anything worthwhile out of his threads.

Steve

[steffen]

Mar 19, 2018 23:47:19 GMT stevep said:

Steffen

To be honest Simpleton produced a number of ideas like this and didn't like any attempts to question his assumptions. As such after a while I ignored his posts and I think he hasn't posted here for a while. IMHO your probably wasting your time trying to get anything worthwhile out of his threads.

Steve

Oh... well maybe we others could discuss the OP story?

Basically an idea is an idea... 

Maybe we start another thread, but it could be quite "fun" to speculate about the next steps if
a.) the USN loose 3 Carriers, 3 cruisers, 2 tankers, 5 destroyer and - to help japan more - 300 planes, 250 pilots,. compared to
b.) light japanese forces (1 CVE by sub, 1 CL by coastal artillery, 3 destroyers by coastal artillery. 1 CA by land based bombers and sub (finishing), 1 DD and 1 CL by airforces and say 110 planes and 80 pilots. (the invasion force is allways wiped out, because the used forces are WAY to weak to take midway) Add in some minor damages to Hiryu (2 months) and Akagi (4 months).

Even if that is near ASB, it COULD happen, with a lot 12 for the japanese and many 2 for the USN
(as i tried, say the Divebombers miss the japanese fleet, the japanese have more luck with their first strike, a japanese sub find another carrier, killing him with 6 torpedos sinking the ship in 4 minutes, another carrier get crippled by IJN airplanes and get lost by another sub)

But the WI from this point is interesting.

Japan need time to recover their air losses, pilots and planes. 
Say 4-5 months? 
The defeat at midway is recognized, they think about better invasion methods.

The USN - after Nimitz is removed - learn these lessons:
Carriers without adequate ASW are worthless targets
Carriers need planes with adequate range and better communications

So the USA start to build- additional to their plans allready in work
a.) 50 CVE, that could operate ASW-planes, they need to keep on with the fleets cruising speed, so something around 24kn max speed (very fast for CVE), that could carry say 15-20 planes.
b.) another 20 CVL, that could be used as ASW/fighter/Recon-platform, again to find the enemy, to keep contact and radio the carrier force to the target.
c.) additional CL-AA, to protect the ships better (overkill, but who cares in such situation of shock)

To achive this they also withdraw lots of ressources from the atlantic, in that they only had started to gain experience and support the RN.

Consequences:
the battle for the atlantic is more costly, less effective.
the battle for the pacific calms down, no offensive operations till mid 43. So the japanese after their victory go on with their outer defence perimeter.
They maybe visit the indian ocean again, to do 2 things.
a.) cut off the huge supplies in US and UK-ships bound for russia - helping their allies
b.) sink the other british war ships, esp. battleships and carriers, to keep the allies in the pacific weak.


If they do this "in time" they could avoid the significant supplies for the 8th army, so the allied operations in africa are delayed.
Torch is shelved - again negative cause the germans do not need to send in the critical winter of 1942 so many forces to africa (they will lay dry in the desert before ElAlemain, still building better defences, but beeing unable to push to alexandria. 
Maybe the germans want to do a Malta-operation (Hercules), because the losses to subs and planes will still hurt the Axis forces?

So you could create a scenario in that:
USA try to destroy the japanese by subs - for the next 12 months, build up huge bases in australia, NZ and Noumea, preparing for a huge operation to crush the japanese.
Japan in the same time would try something in burma - failing, but stretching the british thinner
if they go into the ocean they could cut off the huge supply convoys for the 8th army, causing a huge delay in the offensive operations that forced the axis out of africa.
Russia still will win at stalingrad, but the follow up operations could end in a desaster... just think about 100k more replentish forces for the german army in the south around nov42/jan43... with tigers (instead sinking into the mediterain mud), a lot airplanes (to achive full air superiority for the germans here), also not loosing so many pilots against the british and americans in africa. 


The end result is allways the same - the second the USA enters the war it was game over for the axis, but till this point is reached a lot could be changed. 



A timeline could see this:

July 42: USA decides to stop all work on Torch, cause the need to stabilize the pacific front mean there are no ressources left. Begin of an even bigger building program for carriers and cruisers. New slips will be build, esp. faster CVE for pacific use. 
July-October 42 - japanese TFs enters indian ocean, destroy around 250 british and american merchants, 12 "destroyers", 2 cruisers, 1 battleship, loosing only 1 destroyer and 4 subs and 70 planes. The allies suffers huge casulties as the key resupply-convoy get caught and destroyed. This caused churchill to halt all operations in africa and dig in till march 43. In the same time the routes to russia through persia dry out (fell to 10% of OTL numbers).
Nov 42: russians push for stalingrad, encircling it. Bitter fightings errupt, but in the end the Stalingradarmy is forced to surrender. Russian casulties around 30% higher as OTL.
Dez. 42: a german-italian operation for taking malta is started, intense bombardments (twice of the ones they did OTL in 1942) for 100 days. Invasion-day is planned for march 20th.
Januar 43: germans stop the russian operations cold, not loosing the italian army. They push the russians back, crushing around 100% more forces as OTL.
March 43: till now the americans, using their and british subs to destroy the japanese logistics have sunk 20% more merchants, additional 1 carrier (CV Junyo), 1 Battleship Nagato (in nov 42),2 CL and 4 cruisers. THe japanese react to this by starting an emergency program to build asw ships. 
April 43: the allies have build up for 6 months long range naval bombers (Liberators) to reestablish save routes for the persian route. First convoy for alexandria with significant armor reach the suez channel. 
May 43: Malta is invaded at the 2nd. Desaster. 1 italian Battleship is sunk, 3 cruisers and 2 destroyers heavily damaged. 1 italian and 1/2 german para-division had failed to establish a bridgehead. At may 15th the battle is over. The germans still achived the full takeout of the port, but the axis casulties are huge - they loose together around 24.000 men, 18k killed, 6k captured. Only in the air they had better casulties, also they catch HMS Illustrious and HMS Warspite by guided bombs, later sunk by italian torpedo bombers. 
June 43: The 8th army start their El Alemain operation. After 2 weeks of brutal fighting the germans are forced to retreat, huge casulties to both sides. 
oct 43: the USN start the retaking of the guadalcanars after this air base caused significant casulties to convoy forces. 
...
sometimes in summer 45: Germany surrenders
sometimes in autum 45: Japan surrenders
(that is unstoppable).

[lordroel]

Mar 19, 2018 23:47:19 GMT stevep said:

Steffen

To be honest Simpleton produced a number of ideas like this and didn't like any attempts to question his assumptions. As such after a while I ignored his posts and I think he hasn't posted here for a while. IMHO your probably wasting your time trying to get anything worthwhile out of his threads.

Steve

You are right steve, he was last online in November of 2017 but if a person like to contribute in a thread, who are we to stop him.

[stevep]

Mar 20, 2018 15:09:15 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 19, 2018 23:47:19 GMT stevep said:

Steffen

To be honest Simpleton produced a number of ideas like this and didn't like any attempts to question his assumptions. As such after a while I ignored his posts and I think he hasn't posted here for a while. IMHO your probably wasting your time trying to get anything worthwhile out of his threads.

Steve

You are right steve, he was last online in November of 2017 but if a person like to contribute in a thread, who are we to stop him.

  True.  Its just that he was so determined to ignore any arguments against his ideas I decided it was easier to ignore him.  Saved time and blood pressure.

[lordroel]

Mar 20, 2018 15:37:30 GMT stevep said:

Mar 20, 2018 15:09:15 GMT lordroel said:

You are right steve, he was last online in November of 2017 but if a person like to contribute in a thread, who are we to stop him.

  True.  Its just that he was so determined to ignore any arguments against his ideas I decided it was easier to ignore him.  Saved time and blood pressure.

Well some people are like that steve, the most i hope are not.

[steffen]

Mar 20, 2018 15:37:30 GMT stevep said:

Mar 20, 2018 15:09:15 GMT lordroel said:

You are right steve, he was last online in November of 2017 but if a person like to contribute in a thread, who are we to stop him.

  True.  Its just that he was so determined to ignore any arguments against his ideas I decided it was easier to ignore him.  Saved time and blood pressure.

Hi,

do not get angered... also not in discussions we will have. It is just alternative history, based on crude storylines
Also, politics aren´t worth trouble... we can´t influence that stuff (outside from elections)... people allways will have different opinions, actual politics is a mess (in the ASB-stuff you can´t avoid actual political developments) and you really fast get a problem, esp. if you have different opinions. 

The term "we agree to disagree" is the perfect solution for this, but really - no need for blood pressure about posts in a forum... not necessary...

the fallout of such "devasting victory" could be interesting, as i tried to describe, but on the other side it is also very asb-ish to achive that victory. 

[lordroel]

Mar 20, 2018 19:43:06 GMT steffen said:

Mar 20, 2018 15:37:30 GMT stevep said:

  True.  Its just that he was so determined to ignore any arguments against his ideas I decided it was easier to ignore him.  Saved time and blood pressure.

Hi,

do not get angered... also not in discussions we will have. It is just alternative history, based on crude storylines
Also, politics aren´t worth trouble... we can´t influence that stuff (outside from elections)... people allways will have different opinions, actual politics is a mess (in the ASB-stuff you can´t avoid actual political developments) and you really fast get a problem, esp. if you have different opinions. 

The term "we agree to disagree" is the perfect solution for this, but really - no need for blood pressure about posts in a forum... not necessary...

the fallout of such "devasting victory" could be interesting, as i tried to describe, but on the other side it is also very asb-ish to achive that victory. 

I am not angered, i like people discussing thread and alternative history on the forum but some people just can not get along with a other, that is a fact and that we must except as the realty.

[steffen]

Mar 20, 2018 19:46:30 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 20, 2018 19:43:06 GMT steffen said:

Hi,

do not get angered... also not in discussions we will have. It is just alternative history, based on crude storylines
Also, politics aren´t worth trouble... we can´t influence that stuff (outside from elections)... people allways will have different opinions, actual politics is a mess (in the ASB-stuff you can´t avoid actual political developments) and you really fast get a problem, esp. if you have different opinions. 

The term "we agree to disagree" is the perfect solution for this, but really - no need for blood pressure about posts in a forum... not necessary...

the fallout of such "devasting victory" could be interesting, as i tried to describe, but on the other side it is also very asb-ish to achive that victory. 

I am not angered, i like people discussing thread and alternative history on the forum but some people just can not get along with a other, that is a fact and that we must except as the realty.

Hi,

that is perfectly described!
in generally we should try to get along with each other... if two have different opinions they allways should respect the opinion of the other side. 
Esp. if we talk about alternate history it seems a bit silly if we do get in heated discussions, eh

Myself love to discuss in detail plots, esp. the basic consequences... 
Some things are quite often "problematic" - as a classic example - italy in ww1. They can´t fight UK, because they are fully dependent on british coal. (OTL the railway connections to germany could not handle the needed coal transports. Only after ww1 this was fixed. So you can´t do a TL in that italy joins the CP against UK, because that would be shooting yourself in the head. At best italy stay neutral. Something different it is with UK staying neutral at the beginning and italy joins against france. If two discuss such scenario they need to respect the OTL facts or give an explanation why italy could get supplied by germany with coal (say in 1900 they start to expand the connections in a way the germans could deliver the needed coal from their depots by railway).

But the way how that war change with such scenario (italy joins the CP in the early stage against france) is quite fascinating.

This scenario (USN wiped out) is near ASB, but could happen. But even with such result, the fate of both germany and japan is decided. They could not win against the USA. 
But the changes that could be created by this event are fun to discuss...