Smarter German strategy in 1939

[simpleton]

Poland was the only other military dictatorship with a strong army and good leadership (far superior to Italy and a shield against the USSR). Instead of using the surprise factor of initiating a world war, Hitler attacked the only country expecting to be invaded. This provided time for Britain and France to mobilize, import armament, recruit, train, etc, After defeating Poland, the huge German armed forces consumed a lot of scarce grain, etc, cost a fortune and did nothing until the invasion of Denmark & Norway. Then Hitler had to fight Holland, Belgium, France and Britain on 10 May, 1940. The worst possible move for Germany was the one made OTL, allying himself with Stalin to wipe out the Polish army and yield 2/3 of Poland, the Baltic countries and Finland to the USSR, moving the Soviet border much closer to East Prussia and Berlin. Before the war, the Polish border was minutes from Minsk and very close to Kiev, Smolensk, Leningrad, etc, 

 Poland and Finland have excellent intelligence networks, much superior to Germany's. Poland had defeated the much larger red army in the early 1920s and with a little German armament and training, it would be an invaluable ally to secure other alliances, to defeat and control the URSS. If Poland captured the Baltic Countries allied with Germany, Stalin would not dare oppose both countries and probably Japan (allied with Germany and sharing intelligence about the USSR with Poland for many yaers) and the axis would be even closer to Leningrad, Smolensk and Moscow.

Holland was extremely weak in 1939 (even less prepared than in May 1940) and capturing it would bypass the strong forts in east Belgium and the Maginot line, effectively rendering Belgium and France untenable. Invading a 30 km swath of Swiss territory along the German and French borders also bypasses the Maginot line and leaves Switzerland exposed to Italian invasion and German bombers if it declares war on Germany and counter attacks. Oslo had one of two airports and it would be easy capturing it in peacetime, with troops hidden in merchant ships and landed in the airport. Even France, Britain and Switzerland were unprepared for war in April 1939.

Stalin had executed many of his best officers and the red army was completely unprepared for war in 1939, even worse than in 1941, when it had T-34, KV-1, more officers and had learn valuable lessons and experience invading Poland, the Baltic countries, Bessarabia and Finland and fighting Japan in Mongolia.

Japan was incurring heavy losses in China fighting a huge army in a huge area, with a small IJA, the expensive and mighty IJN was mostly idle. 


ATL

in Nov 1938 Hitler convinces Poland, Japan, Thailand and Finland to form a secret coalition with Germany to secure and expand their countries. Poland will not only gain valuable territory, ports and population, but secure its flanks against a Soviet invasion after capturing the 2 larger, vulnerable Baltic countries. Japan will gain valuable European colonies, which are very weakly defended, a much better return on investment than invading China.  Finland will not only gain territory, eventually invading Karelia, but will gain strong allies against to preempt a Soviet invasion.

Accordingly, in April 1939 Germany invades Holland (capturing a 30 km wide swath along the whole Belgian border within 38 hours, before Holland, Belgium, France and Britain can react effectively), Germany invades a 30 km swath of Swiss territory along the German and French borders, Denmark, Oslo (including invaluable Fornebu airport and capturing King Hakon and the government), Bohemia and Moravia.

Being in peace time, the coalition can infiltrate troops using trains, ships, buses, planes, etc, into critical areas (RR, bridges, roads, ports, airports, crossroads, etc,) and after securing these, motorized forces advance rapidly, any resistence being rapidly wiped out by the intact coalition aviation and naval guns).

On the same day, Poland invades Lithuania, Latvia & Slovakia. Finland annexes Estonia and the coalition is diclosed, with a warning that an attack on any member means war with all members.

The fall of Holland renders Belgium and France untenable and exposes them and Britain to bombing, U.boats, etc, from nearby bases. The coalition extends an ultimatum to Belgium and Switzerland, to grant passage to German troops to France or join the G-P-F aoalition (to gain French territory). Otherwise (if Switzerland counter attacks or Belgium denies passage) all Belgian and Swiss cities will be razed by bombing.
The Coalition also extends an ultimatum to Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia and Hungary to join it or be at war with it. Romania joins the coalition, which induces all others to do likewise.
 
After a costly, failed Swiss counter attack and the destruction of Lugano by German bombers, Switzerland joins the coalition. Belgium grants passage to German forces.

Japan and Thailand invade French Indochina, British Borneo (acquiring undefended,  intact oilwells and refinery), Malaya, New Zealand, Tasmania, New Caledonia and Port Moresby.

After a week of stunning coalition successes and acquisition of new members, Italy and Sweden also join the coalition. Italy invades Corsica.

After deploying troops in Belgium, the coalition issues an ultimatum to France to join the coalition to gain territory in the USSR and wipe out the red army (which has more tanks and planes than the rest of the world combined), securing European civilization. Otherwise, France will be invaded from Belgium, Italy and Switzerland and Paris will suffer the same destiny as Lugano. France has lost Indochina, Corsica and New Caledonia and it knows that it cannot stop the coalition's huge air force and army. France joins the coalition, greatly boosting its navy and forcing Britain to do likewise (with the French, Italian, German and Polish navies and air forces, the invasion of Britain is guaranteed. The coalition now is invincible.

[lordroel]

Aug 28, 2017 21:36:30 GMT simpleton said:

Germany invades a 30 km swath of Swiss territory along the German and French borders,

That mean Switzerland is also in war with Germany.

[simpleton]

No, it doen't. The fact that Germany is invading only 30 km from the border and has not bombed Swiss cities and towns, shows that Germany does not intend to annex Switzerland, unless it declares war or counter attacks.
Swiss defense was based on strong fortifications in the interior, it was not prepared for a counter attack against overwhelming air and artillery support.

In WW I Germany marched through the SE corner of Holland and Holland did not declare war. Switzerland is not mobilized. By the time it mobilizes Germany will have occupied the border swath. A Swiss counter attack would be extremely costly and achieve nothing, except the bombing of Swiss cities and annexation of Switzerland. Switzerland can:
a) declare war, have its cities bombed, be unable to expel German forces, perhaps be attacked by Italy, when it is busy fighting Germany and lose the whole country.
b) deploy forces to prevent further invasion, refrain from declaring war and reluctantly grant passage to German forces to France.
c) Become a German ally (since the Maginot line and forts in east Belgium have been outflanked, France is doomed against air superiority) and gain French territory.

[lordroel]

Aug 29, 2017 14:48:22 GMT simpleton said:

In WW I Germany marched through the SE corner of Holland and Holland did not declare war.

According to Wiki:  For a stretch of 500 metres (550 yd) between border markers 42 and 43 the road was half Belgian and half Dutch territory. Dutch border guards made clear which part of the road was Dutch territory, and as a consequence the German army avoided it on their westward march.

[johnro]

Aug 28, 2017 21:36:30 GMT simpleton said:

 Poland and Finland have excellent intelligence networks, much superior to Germany's. Poland had defeated the much larger red army in the early 1920s and with a little German armament and training, 

red army in 1920s - 
the congregation of uncontrolled bandits.

Like the Ukrainian army now.

Back in 1939, the Red Army was weak.

The Finnish company- "The Winter War"-( military conflict between the Soviet Union and Finland in 1939–1940) - it clearly showed.

[simpleton]

johnro,
The red army was indeed deficient in 1939, so Hitler seizing the Baltic countries made a lot of sense, before the red army became stronger.

However, the utter and costly failure of the initial invasion of Finland was more due to Stalin's incompetence than to the red army. Stalin gratuitously chose the worst possible time to strike, the coldest December in the previous 30 years in Finland. He sent troops withut adequate clothing and food for such weather and gave Finnish sky troops a big advantage. He placed idiotic Voroshilov, political commissars, etc, in charge over less incompetent generals and colonels. . In the spring, a much reinforced and much better led and fed red army rapidly broke through.

Stalin could and should have easily invaded Finland, Bessarabia and the Baltic countries immediately after Poland capitulated, with better weather and Finland even more poorly armed and mobilized than in the winter. The USSR had the only large paratrooper force in the world at the time and a large navy, which could have greatly contributed to a rapíd Finnish capitulation in the fall of 1939 by landing troops behind the Mannerheim line. A quick defeat with few losses would have encouraged Stalin to set up a Finnish Soviet republic, eliminating the possibility of Finland joining Germany on an invasion of the USSR and providing Finnish troops to fight a German invasion.

[johnro]

Sept 2, 2017 16:22:20 GMT simpleton said:

johnro,
The red army was indeed deficient in 1939, so Hitler seizing the Baltic countries made a lot of sense, before the red army became stronger.

However, the utter and costly failure of the initial invasion of Finland was more due to Stalin's incompetence than to the red army. Stalin gratuitously chose the worst possible time to strike, the coldest December in the previous 30 years in Finland. He sent troops withut adequate clothing and food for such weather and gave Finnish sky troops a big advantage. He placed idiotic Voroshilov, political commissars, etc, in charge over less incompetent generals and colonels. . In the spring, a much reinforced and much better led and fed red army rapidly broke through.

Stalin could and should have easily invaded Finland, Bessarabia and the Baltic countries immediately after Poland capitulated, with better weather and Finland even more poorly armed and mobilized than in the winter. The USSR had the only large paratrooper force in the world at the time and a large navy, which could have greatly contributed to a rapíd Finnish capitulation in the fall of 1939 by landing troops behind the Mannerheim line. A quick defeat with few losses would have encouraged Stalin to set up a Finnish Soviet republic, eliminating the possibility of Finland joining Germany on an invasion of the USSR and providing Finnish troops to fight a German invasion.

Alright!
but Stalin's personality is largely exaggerated.

We need villains like Stalin, Hitler, Kaligula))

on which you can hang all the troubles.

But, those who really managed them, and remain in the shadows.


Lots of lies in these events ..


Lots of lies in these events ..

[lordroel]

Sept 2, 2017 16:55:47 GMT johnro said:

Sept 2, 2017 16:22:20 GMT simpleton said:

johnro,
The red army was indeed deficient in 1939, so Hitler seizing the Baltic countries made a lot of sense, before the red army became stronger.

However, the utter and costly failure of the initial invasion of Finland was more due to Stalin's incompetence than to the red army. Stalin gratuitously chose the worst possible time to strike, the coldest December in the previous 30 years in Finland. He sent troops withut adequate clothing and food for such weather and gave Finnish sky troops a big advantage. He placed idiotic Voroshilov, political commissars, etc, in charge over less incompetent generals and colonels. . In the spring, a much reinforced and much better led and fed red army rapidly broke through.

Stalin could and should have easily invaded Finland, Bessarabia and the Baltic countries immediately after Poland capitulated, with better weather and Finland even more poorly armed and mobilized than in the winter. The USSR had the only large paratrooper force in the world at the time and a large navy, which could have greatly contributed to a rapíd Finnish capitulation in the fall of 1939 by landing troops behind the Mannerheim line. A quick defeat with few losses would have encouraged Stalin to set up a Finnish Soviet republic, eliminating the possibility of Finland joining Germany on an invasion of the USSR and providing Finnish troops to fight a German invasion.

Alright!
but Stalin's personality is largely exaggerated.

We need villains like Stalin, Hitler, Kaligula))

on which you can hang all the troubles.

But, those who really managed them, and remain in the shadows.


Lots of lies in these events ..


Lots of lies in these events ..

johnro can you use normal sentences please.

[johnro]

I'll try)))

[lordroel]

Sept 2, 2017 17:36:11 GMT johnro said:

I'll try)))

Thanks.

[eurowatch]

Sept 2, 2017 16:22:20 GMT simpleton said:

johnro,
The red army was indeed deficient in 1939, so Hitler seizing the Baltic countries made a lot of sense, before the red army became stronger.

However, the utter and costly failure of the initial invasion of Finland was more due to Stalin's incompetence than to the red army. Stalin gratuitously chose the worst possible time to strike, the coldest December in the previous 30 years in Finland. He sent troops withut adequate clothing and food for such weather and gave Finnish sky troops a big advantage. He placed idiotic Voroshilov, political commissars, etc, in charge over less incompetent generals and colonels. . In the spring, a much reinforced and much better led and fed red army rapidly broke through.

Stalin could and should have easily invaded Finland, Bessarabia and the Baltic countries immediately after Poland capitulated, with better weather and Finland even more poorly armed and mobilized than in the winter. The USSR had the only large paratrooper force in the world at the time and a large navy, which could have greatly contributed to a rapíd Finnish capitulation in the fall of 1939 by landing troops behind the Mannerheim line. A quick defeat with few losses would have encouraged Stalin to set up a Finnish Soviet republic, eliminating the possibility of Finland joining Germany on an invasion of the USSR and providing Finnish troops to fight a German invasion.

Actually the biggest reason for why the war took as long as it did was because Voroshilov tried to take all of Finland at once, instead of focusing at just breaking through the Mannerheim Line (which is what Timoshenko did when he took over command). This allowed the Finns to concentrate on the areas that were actually important instead of having to face the full Soviet might at one point.
There were also insuffiecent preparations With soldiers only having summer uniforms (so in the snow they might as well be waving a giant "shoot me" flag) and had put to much Stock in the German Blitzkrieg strategy, completly ignoring that it was never intended With this kind of terrain in mind (remember that armoured warfare was still in its infancy at the time). 

[johnro]

Sept 2, 2017 21:12:38 GMT eurowatch said:

Sept 2, 2017 16:22:20 GMT simpleton said:

Actually the biggest reason for why the war took as long as it did was because Voroshilov tried to take all of Finland at once, instead of focusing at just breaking through the Mannerheim Line (which is what Timoshenko did when he took over command). This allowed the Finns to concentrate on the areas that were actually important instead of having to face the full Soviet might at one point.
There were also insuffiecent preparations With soldiers only having summer uniforms (so in the snow they might as well be waving a giant "shoot me" flag) and had put to much Stock in the German Blitzkrieg strategy, completly ignoring that it was never intended With this kind of terrain in mind (remember that armoured warfare was still in its infancy at the time). 

Humm,i understood correctly?



1. bad intelligence

2. bad equipment

3. bad leaders (boses)

4. bad soldiers (poorly trained soldiers)



There are some advantages?



In my opinion, the personality of Stalin and the Voroshilov in the last places.





I think, Soviet leaders - puppets,
" unknown" could manage them,
maybe not directly .

But the whole reign of Stalin - is one huge mistake .

from the point of view of the prosperity of his country.





But before, I reasoned like you.

[lordroel]

Sept 2, 2017 21:55:30 GMT johnro said:

Sept 2, 2017 21:12:38 GMT eurowatch said:

Actually the biggest reason for why the war took as long as it did was because Voroshilov tried to take all of Finland at once, instead of focusing at just breaking through the Mannerheim Line (which is what Timoshenko did when he took over command). This allowed the Finns to concentrate on the areas that were actually important instead of having to face the full Soviet might at one point.
There were also insuffiecent preparations With soldiers only having summer uniforms (so in the snow they might as well be waving a giant "shoot me" flag) and had put to much Stock in the German Blitzkrieg strategy, completly ignoring that it was never intended With this kind of terrain in mind (remember that armoured warfare was still in its infancy at the time). 

Humm,i understood correctly?



1. bad intelligence

2. bad equipment

3. bad leaders (boses)

4. bad soldiers (poorly trained soldiers)



There are some advantages?



In my opinion, the personality of Stalin and the Voroshilov in the last places.





I think, Soviet leaders - puppets,
" unknown" could manage them,
maybe not directly .

But the whole reign of Stalin - is one huge mistake .

from the point of view of the prosperity of his country.





But before, I reasoned like you.

Okay third time, please use normal sentences.

[simpleton]

Johnro,
It was STalin who decided to
1) invade Finland (thinking it the same walk in the park that the US expected invading Canada in 1812).
2) do it in the worse winter in 30 years.
3) to place Voroshilov and the commissars in charge.

It was also STalin who allowed Germany to start WW II by accepting the R-M pact a week before the war started. the idiot had even given Lithuania to Germany in the original secret protocol, he was lucky that Hitler (another idiot) did not invade Lithuania before invading Poland (putting him closer to Leningrad, Minsk and Smollensk at the start of Barbarossa) and that Hitler yielded Lithuania after Poland fell.
Had Stalin sent Ribbentrop to hell when he proposed the R-M pact to move the German border up to the Soviet border and invaded the Baltic Countries and faced East Prussia, Hitler would never have dared to invade Poland and start a fight on 2 strong fronts (Poland and the USSR in the east).

The same Soviet soldiers you deride broke through when concentrated with overwhelming artillery, armor and air support and better weather and food. BTW, just 2 years later, superbly trained, but poorly clad German supermen also suffered more casualties to the same cold weather than to bullets, shells, etc, and their offensive also stalled in the battle of Moscow, in easier terrain with ground to maneuver. all because Hitler's astrologists had predicted a quick Soviet collapse and an unusually mild winter (the winter arrived early and it was the coldest in 50 years). It was also Hitler who sent Guderian from Smolensk all the way to Kiev and Hoth from SMolensk to Leningrad, when Moscow was extremely poorly defended and the weather was excellent. They wasted that good weather and returned for Operation Typhoon in the muck, so they provided even more time for the Soviets to deploy troops from the east and fortify the area before the attack could be resumed when the muck froze. So a powerful idiot can have a huge impact even on an excellent army.