eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 8, 2017 19:20:58 GMT
With a PoD occurring during the Napoleonic Wars, Napoleon is eventually defeated much the same way as OTL, but a postwar settlement is established that leads to a rather greater territorial consolidation in the hands of the great powers, more expansion for the early USA, and an harsher peace deal for France and Turkey. ITTL the great powers are not really interested in restoring the pre-1789 situation for its own sake, granting a lenient peace to defeated France, or keeping the Ottoman Empire alive. They instead push for a territorial settlement that benefits all of them first and foremost.
- Russia gets its OTL territories, plus Posen, Galicia, Moldavia, most of Wallachia, Ottoman Armenia-Assyria, and Persian Azerbaijan.
- Prussia gets its OTL territories without Posen, plus Saxony, Hanover, Palatinate, Luxemburg, Hesse, and Nassau.
- Austria gets its OTL territories without Galicia, plus Bavaria, Parma, Modena, Lucca, Tuscany, most of the Papal States except Latium, Oltenia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Albania.
- Alsace and Lorraine (all of it, not just the portion Germany took in 1871) are carved out in a Kingdom of Lorraine with the Wettin on the throne, Switzerland becomes a Kingdom of Burgundy with the Wittelsbach on the throne, both join the German Confederation. Franche-Comte is partitioned between Lorraine and Burgundy. Thuringia is consolidated into a Grand Duchy with the House of Hesse on the throne.
- The Kingdom of the Netherlands gets its OTL territories without Luxemburg, plus the French Flanders. France is more or less pushed back to its 16th century borders. Sardinia-Piedmont gets its OTL territories plus Corsica. The Pope keeps Latium. Italy becomes a confederation like Germany. Dynastic changes lead to an early dissolution of the personal union between Britain and Hanover, and the British ruling elites are not interested in having possessions on the continent. Denmark, Norway, and Sweden establish a dynastic union.
- Bulgaria and Greece merge into a Kingdom that gets Macedonia, Thrace, Crete, the Aegean Islands, the Turkish Straits, and Cyprus. Palestine and Lebanon are carved up in the restored Kingdom of Jerusalem. The Ottoman Empire loses all its possessions in Europe, Armenia-Assyria, Palestine, and Lebanon.
- Spain restores the Iberian Union with Portugal and gets Roussillon.
- the USA gets all its OTL territories, annexes Canada thanks to its victory in the war with Britain (which takes place in the 1800s) and gets Florida, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Texas, California, the Southwest, and northern Mexico up to the Tropic of Cancer thanks to its successful intervention in the Spanish-American Independence Wars. It may acquire Louisiana much like the OTL way, or conquer it during the Napoleonic Wars. New Spain (central-southern Mexico and Central America) and New Grenada (Colombia and Venezuela) become client states of the USA. Brazil becomes an independent empire (and a client state of Britain) with the Braganza on the throne.
- Britain annexes the Dutch, French, and Portuguese colonies, the Boer states, and the Southern Cone (Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, southern Brazil).
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 8, 2017 19:26:00 GMT
- The Kingdom of the Netherlands gets its OTL territories without Luxemburg, plus the French Flanders. France is more or less pushed back to its 16th century borders. Sardinia-Piedmont gets its OTL territories plus Corsica. The Pope keeps Latium. Italy becomes a confederation like Germany. Dynastic changes lead to an early dissolution of the personal union between Britain and Hanover, and the British ruling elites are not interested in having possessions on the continent. Denmark, Norway, and Sweden establish a dynastic union. And the Kingdom of the Netherlands will suffer a Belgium Revolution but i think unlike OTL it might be only be the French speaking parts (Wallonia and French Flanders) that will try to become a independent country. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 8, 2017 19:53:09 GMT
- The Kingdom of the Netherlands gets its OTL territories without Luxemburg, plus the French Flanders. France is more or less pushed back to its 16th century borders. Sardinia-Piedmont gets its OTL territories plus Corsica. The Pope keeps Latium. Italy becomes a confederation like Germany. Dynastic changes lead to an early dissolution of the personal union between Britain and Hanover, and the British ruling elites are not interested in having possessions on the continent. Denmark, Norway, and Sweden establish a dynastic union. And the Kingdom of the Netherlands will suffer a Belgium Revolution but i think unlike OTL it might be only be the French speaking parts (Wallonia and French Flanders) that will try to become a independent country. Yep, France shall certainly have a mightly revanchist complex (the Bourbons shall be even more hated than OTL and probably lose the throne for good as soon as the great powers are distracted) and be highly interested in regaining its lost territories. It may well do so for the French-speaking territories with the help of local revolutionaries, but its ability to annex ethnically and linguistically distinct areas into its state or separate them from their owners shall be limited, due to a combination of lessened French resources, less favorable borders, and stronger Austria and Prussia. I'm greatly skeptical of the ability of a purely French-speaking Wallonia or Lorraine to exist as an independent country even if the great powers impose this compromise solution at first, the attractive force of the French nation would be irresistible. As soon as the next revolutionary wave occurs and/or the great powers are distracted, France shall re-absorb them kinda like interwar Germany did with Saar and Austria. On the other hand, Netherlands may well keep Flanders, and the German and Italian unifications likely occur without much loss of German- or Italian-speaking lands to France. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 9, 2017 3:17:50 GMT
And the Kingdom of the Netherlands will suffer a Belgium Revolution but i think unlike OTL it might be only be the French speaking parts (Wallonia and French Flanders) that will try to become a independent country. Yep, France shall certainly have a mightly revanchist complex (the Bourbons shall be even more hated than OTL and probably lose the throne for good as soon as the great powers are distracted) and be highly interested in regaining its lost territories. It may well do so for the French-speaking territories with the help of local revolutionaries, but its ability to annex ethnically and linguistically distinct areas into its state or separate them from their owners shall be limited, due to a combination of lessened French resources, less favorable borders, and stronger Austria and Prussia. I'm greatly skeptical of the ability of a purely French-speaking Wallonia or Lorraine to exist as an independent country even if the great powers impose this compromise solution at first, the attractive force of the French nation would be irresistible. As soon as the next revolutionary wave occurs and/or the great powers are distracted, France shall re-absorb them kinda like interwar Germany did with Saar and Austria. On the other hand, Netherlands may well keep Flanders, and the German and Italian unifications likely occur without much loss of German- or Italian-speaking lands to France. So you do not think a smaller French speaking country can exist along side France. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 9, 2017 13:13:33 GMT
So you do not think a smaller French speaking country can exist along side France. Well, theorically speaking, it is certainly possible if one looks to the historical cases of states that broke off from their original ethnic-linguistic community and developed a new identity. I'm not just sure the factors that worked for them would apply here. Although perhaps if France starts and loses a string of revanchist wars during the 19th and 20th century, and the other great powers keep defeatting the French and imposing a peace that keeps Wallonia and Lorraine separate, a different identity might eventually develop, like it happened with postwar Austria. Then again, the contrary example of Saar and East Germany reminds us things might go differently. Most importantly, if French irredentism historically fails ITTL, given geopolitical circumstances I assume the most likely course if for the neighbor states to keep and politically absorb French-speaking border areas, such as the Netherlands for Wallonia, Germany for Lorraine, Italy for Savoy, and so on, rather than for those areas to become independent states. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 9, 2017 13:27:43 GMT
So you do not think a smaller French speaking country can exist along side France. Well, theorically speaking, it is certainly possible if one looks to the historical cases of states that broke off from their original ethnic-linguistic community and developed a new identity. I'm not just sure the factors that worked for them would apply here. Although perhaps if France starts and loses a string of revanchist wars during the 19th and 20th century, and the other great powers keep defeatting the French and imposing a peace that keeps Wallonia and Lorraine separate, a different identity might eventually develop, like it happened with postwar Austria. Then again, the contrary example of Saar and East Germany reminds us things might go differently. Then again, if French irredentism historically fails ITTL, given geopolitical circumstances I assume the most likely course if for the neighbor states to keep and politically absorb French-speaking border areas, such as the Netherlands for Wallonia, Germany for Lorraine, Italy for Savoy, and so on, rather than for those areas to become independent states. do the Netherlands at least keep some of their colonies ore have the all become part of the United Kingdom. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 9, 2017 16:05:21 GMT
do the Netherlands at least keep some of their colonies ore have the all become part of the United Kingdom. They lose all the important ones (e.g. the Dutch West Indies, Guyana) to Britain. They may or may not keep some little island someplace, but honestly it seems irrelevant to the scenario. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 9, 2017 16:26:02 GMT
but honestly it seems irrelevant to the scenario. Maybe it is because relation between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom might suffer as a result of a Alternate Congress of Vienna. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 9, 2017 16:57:41 GMT
but honestly it seems irrelevant to the scenario. Maybe it is because relation between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom might suffer as a result of a Alternate Congress of Vienna. Oh, loss of the Dutch colonies to Britain is certainly relevant in terms of its political effects on the Netherlands, and I agree it may cause some serious Dutch bitterness and distrust of the British. I expect the political backlash would be enough to persuade the Dutch to rely more on Prussia than Britain for patronage. I was just uncertain when I wrote the scenario if it would be enough to drive the United Kingdom of the Netherlands to join the German Confederation. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 9, 2017 18:20:08 GMT
Maybe it is because relation between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom might suffer as a result of a Alternate Congress of Vienna. Oh, loss of the Dutch colonies to Britain is certainly relevant in terms of its political effects on the Netherlands, and I agree it may cause some serious Dutch bitterness and distrust of the British. I expect the political backlash would be enough to persuade the Dutch to rely more on Prussia than Britain for patronage. I was just uncertain when I wrote the scenario if it would be enough to drive the United Kingdom of the Netherlands to join the German Confederation. Wonder, could we see the Netherlands going the route of Belgium of OTL and take control of Congo, but with a better management this time. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Oct 10, 2017 17:11:24 GMT
Wonder, could we see the Netherlands going the route of Belgium of OTL and take control of Congo, but with a better management this time. Well, it might happen, with a big caveat. TTL greater post-Napoleonic political consolidation of Europe may easily pave the way for unification of Germany and Italy to occur rather earlier than OTL. If this be the case, the Germans and the Italians shall be in a position to take a major role in the Scramble for Africa just like Britain and France, and be much more assertive in the colonial game than OTL. So the room for middle powers such as the Greater Netherlands or Iberia to claim such colonial prime estate as an equivalent of OTL Belgian Congo or Portuguese Southern Africa shall be drastically curtailed. Even more so since all those minor actors lost their pre-existing colonies in the alt-Congress of Vienna. If and when the Dutch are able to grasp a few scraps, I'd assume they are rather more like OTL Spanish African colonies in size and value, rather than something like Belgain Congo or Portuguese Angola and Mozambico. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 10, 2017 17:41:50 GMT
Question is Northern Brazil still becoming a independent country.
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damianf
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Post by damianf on Oct 11, 2017 13:43:56 GMT
I'm guessing that either France was MAULED that she got pushed back 200yrs geographically. OTL Britain, France and Austria were against Prussia taking over Saxony, though I'm guessing the Austrian acquisition of Bavaria and the British gobbling up of nearly all of Europe's colonial possessions, persuaded them to look the other way.
Though two things I don't understand:
1) how can Brazil be independent under the Braganças AND be a British client state?
2) Why is the U.S. getting soo much? OTL they were reluctant to take the Louisiana Territory, while here they get British Canada, a good part of Mexico etc. What's cbanged there?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 11, 2017 17:43:17 GMT
I'm guessing that either France was MAULED that she got pushed back 200yrs geographically. OTL Britain, France and Austria were against Prussia taking over Saxony, though I'm guessing the Austrian acquisition of Bavaria and the British gobbling up of nearly all of Europe's colonial possessions, persuaded them to look the other way. Though two things I don't understand: 1) how can Brazil be independent under the Braganças AND be a British client state? 2) Why is the U.S. getting soo much? OTL they were reluctant to take the Louisiana Territory, while here they get British Canada, a good part of Mexico etc. What's cbanged there? Basically Eurofed is a fan of big, often continent spanning and autocratic states. If he takes this further its almost certain Europe will end up being 'unified' by a Prussian dominated mega-Germany. The US will rule all of the Americas and often somehow takes over both its OTL colony in the Philippines and Australasia. He finds democracy and human rights and people wanting to govern themselves as messy and untidy. Something as you can possibly tell we're often 'debated' as I'm on the other end of the spectrum, being very much a liberal.  |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 11, 2017 17:47:40 GMT
'unified' by a Prussian dominated mega-Germany Only going to happen in the game Europa Universalis IV i think. |
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