Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

[lordroel]

Feb 12, 2018 18:37:10 GMT James G said:

(13)

April 1979:

Qom was the centre of Islamist resistance inside Iran. After that was dealt with in such a brutal fashion as it was, the communist militias and with the army in support of them, not the other way around, moved onwards elsewhere through out the north-central and north-west parts of the country to crush other sites of opposition. Emissaries went out ahead though – religious figures who’d seen the light said some; turncoats others called them – to try to avoid further battles where possible. There was success with some of those missions, though not all. Stretching down from Qom along the road towards Yazd, there were further hotbeds of resistance which were bloodily put down through April. The nearby city of Isfahan had seen street battles between communists and Islamists through last month though there was an understanding come to before that fighting could continue this month. Isfahan was a major coup for the Tudeh and from there much could be achieved of stamping out that other resistance as it was a centre of communications and home to many MEK & Fedai fighters freed up.

Where there was fighting and deals struck in those areas, alliances were sought elsewhere with further combatants in the Iranian Civil War. The majority of Kurdish resistance came to an end with local autonomy offered within the national state. Many Kurds were wary, not trusting the Tudeh at all especially since it was standing with the SAVAK and what was left of the army, yet others were convinced that it was in their best interests to give up the fight. They had mainly been engaged in combat with Islamists anyway and there was little bad blood with the communists. Azeris groups had been silent throughout the past few months and they took the deal offered by Tehran too of autonomy. Sunni forces in the southwest didn’t. There was a nationalist drive to their leaders who hoped to pull their people with them into an independent state based on oil wealth. However, the destruction which had come there when fighting the government though had robbed them of that ability to offer any sort of long-term sustainability. There had been some previous contact with Iraq but now they found that Baghdad was deathly cold to any more overtures of encouragement. Tudeh and government forces were still far away and fighting on the other side of the Zagros Mountains. That wasn’t going to last though. Their leaders started to do some soul-searching… while thinking of their own necks.

As to Iraq, across there in Iran’s neighbour, those who had previously fled into Iraq remained held in refugee camps guarded by the Iraqi Army. Those inside came from all backgrounds in Iran from high-level officials of the regime of The Shah – the Iraqis had taken their bribes for freedom but kept them in captivity – to Islamist & Maoist fighters to ordinary people who wanted to get away from the civil war. President Al-Bakr made an agreement with Tehran in late April, pushed towards that by his vice president and also the Soviets too. Though they were yet to know it, those refugees were soon to return to Iran: all of them. Saddam was behind this as he curried more favour with Moscow while increasing unnerved at his president’s plans for the future when it came to another neighbour.

Wonder if Iraq might take advantages of this and start a war a year earlier than OTL.

[James G]

Feb 12, 2018 19:24:22 GMT lordroel said:

Feb 12, 2018 18:37:10 GMT James G said:

Wonder if Iraq might take advantages of this and start a war a year earlier than OTL.

Ah, you're on the right track. You'll find out soon enough.

[James G]

(14)

April 1979:

When the gun-running throughout Central America to various rebel groups before the wave of successful revolutions overthrew those country’s governments was exposed, the US Congressional hearings would call what went on starting in 1979 the ‘Panamanian Connection’. The smaller, more stable Central American nation which was Panama was instrumental in funnelling Soviet weapons elsewhere all the while with the pretence to the United States of friendly relations. The Soviet Union and Cuba had both been working hard to assist rebels in Guatemala and Nicaragua first before that was expanded to El Salvador next and also the small Caribbean island of Grenada as well: though with the latter that was after the coup d’état which took place there in March 1979. Torrijos was doing this in what was at first revenge against the Ford Administration for his belief that they had reneged on a handshake deal with regards to seeing the return of the Panama Canal to his country. As it continued though, Panama found itself more and more drawn into a web from which there would ultimately come a final showdown. That was far off in the distant future though. For now, Panama was a conduit of weapons that Andropov and Castro were seeing sent to those fighting against American-backed governments across the region. Torrijos enriched himself during this too, personally and not for the benefit of his country. Those hearings in future years would look at how the number two man in his regime, Noriega, was involved too… and how he had kept a lid on what was going on for so long while at the same time supposed to be an asset of the CIA. It would appear that Noriega – who also took a piece of the pie which was cash too – had been playing a very clever game with those in the CIA foolish enough to trust him.

Ford had continued decades of United States foreign policy in supporting regimes across Latin America in the fight against communist insurgency. This dated back to the Eisenhower Doctrine and it didn’t always matter if those rebels combatting the regimes were exactly, wholly, truly communist: just that the governments could have a case to make that they were. Moreover, since Castro in 1959, there had been the fear in Washington that rebels such as he had once been might not be communists when they were fighting against the ruling regime in their country, but they might be soon enough afterwards. Why take the chance unless it was absolutely obvious that they weren’t? In relation to American foreign policy towards Latin America, there had always been this approach taken and it couldn’t be imagined that when Ford was gone, whomever the next American president might be wouldn't take another approach.

The civil war inside Guatemala kicked into high gear during April. There were various guerrilla groups active for more than a decade fighting the series of military strongmen who used fraud and violence to install themselves as the country’s leaders. They fought for democracy, social & economic equality and also the ideas of socialism too. The mix was there and the lines were often blurred. They were all communists, the military would say, a line repeated by the current president in the form of Lucas García. He was just the latest in a long-line of seemingly never-ending generals who took power and worked to crush opposition in whatever form it took. Forced disappearances were the newest method being employed to deal with resistance: such people didn’t die or give in, they just vanished from the face of the earth. The various rebels had been the victims of this for a long time. However, more weapons were now flooding into Guatemala and put into the hands of men who actually knew what they were doing. A rural guerrilla group, one with socialist leanings known as the Guerrilla Army of the Poor (the EGP, who had the image of Che Guevara on their recruiting posters), had recently sent some men aboard – they’d been to Cuba though no one was meant to know that – and received much training there in leadership as well as the use of better weapons that they already had. They started to take the fight to the dictatorship, hitting then where they lived in a symbolic strike best referred to a propaganda of the deed: a good old-fashioned anarchist tactic. They got volunteers (unlucky fellows) into Guatemala City who set off bombs and made gun attacks on high-profile government targets. The physical damage wasn’t that dramatic and most of the volunteers were dead before they could do too much damage, but that wasn’t what the aim was. The EGP had struck a famous blow against the government. Fall-out was expected and actually welcomed too: the aim was to have the government send the army straight back at them and into their held territory throughout the central highlands of Guatemala. Then the EGP would bring the Guatemalan Army to battle.

[lordroel]

Feb 12, 2018 19:52:19 GMT James G said:

(14)

April 1979:

When the gun-running throughout Central America to various rebel groups before the wave of successful revolutions overthrew those country’s governments was exposed, the US Congressional hearings would call what went on starting in 1979 the ‘Panamanian Connection’. The smaller, more stable Central American nation which was Panama was instrumental in funnelling Soviet weapons elsewhere all the while with the pretence to the United States of friendly relations. The Soviet Union and Cuba had both been working hard to assist rebels in Guatemala and Nicaragua first before that was expanded to El Salvador next and also the small Caribbean island of Grenada as well: though with the latter that was after the coup d’état which took place there in March 1979. Torrijos was doing this in what was at first revenge against the Ford Administration for his belief that they had reneged on a handshake deal with regards to seeing the return of the Panama Canal to his country. As it continued though, Panama found itself more and more drawn into a web from which there would ultimately come a final showdown. That was far off in the distant future though. For now, Panama was a conduit of weapons that Andropov and Castro were seeing sent to those fighting against American-backed governments across the region. Torrijos enriched himself during this too, personally and not for the benefit of his country. Those hearings in future years would look at how the number two man in his regime, Noriega, was involved too… and how he had kept a lid on what was going on for so long while at the same time supposed to be an asset of the CIA. It would appear that Noriega – who also took a piece of the pie which was cash too – had been playing a very clever game with those in the CIA foolish enough to trust him.

Ford had continued decades of United States foreign policy in supporting regimes across Latin America in the fight against communist insurgency. This dated back to the Eisenhower Doctrine and it didn’t always matter if those rebels combatting the regimes were exactly, wholly, truly communist: just that the governments could have a case to make that they were. Moreover, since Castro in 1959, there had been the fear in Washington that rebels such as he had once been might not be communists when they were fighting against the ruling regime in their country, but they might be soon enough afterwards. Why take the chance unless it was absolutely obvious that they weren’t? In relation to American foreign policy towards Latin America, there had always been this approach taken and it couldn’t be imagined that when Ford was gone, whomever the next American president might be wouldn't take another approach.

The civil war inside Guatemala kicked into high gear during April. There were various guerrilla groups active for more than a decade fighting the series of military strongmen who used fraud and violence to install themselves as the country’s leaders. They fought for democracy, social & economic equality and also the ideas of socialism too. The mix was there and the lines were often blurred. They were all communists, the military would say, a line repeated by the current president in the form of Lucas García. He was just the latest in a long-line of seemingly never-ending generals who took power and worked to crush opposition in whatever form it took. Forced disappearances were the newest method being employed to deal with resistance: such people didn’t die or give in, they just vanished from the face of the earth. The various rebels had been the victims of this for a long time. However, more weapons were now flooding into Guatemala and put into the hands of men who actually knew what they were doing. A rural guerrilla group, one with socialist leanings known as the Guerrilla Army of the Poor (the EGP, who had the image of Che Guevara on their recruiting posters), had recently sent some men aboard – they’d been to Cuba though no one was meant to know that – and received much training there in leadership as well as the use of better weapons that they already had. They started to take the fight to the dictatorship, hitting then where they lived in a symbolic strike best referred to a propaganda of the deed: a good old-fashioned anarchist tactic. They got volunteers (unlucky fellows) into Guatemala City who set off bombs and made gun attacks on high-profile government targets. The physical damage wasn’t that dramatic and most of the volunteers were dead before they could do too much damage, but that wasn’t what the aim was. The EGP had struck a famous blow against the government. Fall-out was expected and actually welcomed too: the aim was to have the government send the army straight back at them and into their held territory throughout the central highlands of Guatemala. Then the EGP would bring the Guatemalan Army to battle.

Nice a fresh look at a different theater of chaos and destruction.

[James G]

Central America is key to this story as we go onwards.

[lordroel]

Feb 13, 2018 6:28:07 GMT James G said:

Central America is key to this story as we go onwards.

Good to hear that.

[James G]

(15)

May 1979:

Negotiations with the Soviet Union over the SALT II treaty had been ongoing throughout Ford’s presidency and the talks where the United States would agree with the Soviets on the future of strategic arms were of utmost importance to the White House. This was something regarded by Ford as being a key part of his legacy when he left office in less than two years time. Recent events in Iran where KGB activity had been uncovered along with difficulties elsewhere such as in the Caribbean with regards to Soviet covert measures were important, but in no way held any comparison to averting the threat of nuclear war. Limiting the number of first-strike weapons and curtailing the development of newer (and more-deadly) missiles trumped everything else. There were those at home, in the Senate especially, who argued that the Soviets couldn’t be trusted on a matter like this when everything else was going on but the position of the Ford Administration was that Moscow had stuck to SALT I and would do with a subsequent treaty. They too wanted to lower the risk of the ending of humanity in a nuclear conflict and wouldn’t cheat: such was his view on this. He went to Vienna in the middle of the month and met with Andropov where the two men along with their staffs exchanged pleasantries and put their signatures to the treaty. There were celebrations afterwards and warm words of trust exchanged. The Soviets would have no problem with their rubber-stamping of the treaty back in Moscow though it was well-known that to get politicians in Washington to agree was going to be quite the challenge. Ford was still going to try though with a back-up plan to see the terms implemented regardless of what the Senate said unless they expressly forbade such an approach with legislation. Ford was committed to this method of maintaining détente with the Soviets on this and nothing would assuage his view that this was the right thing to do.

The Iranian Civil War was coming to an end. There was still some ongoing fighting, among Maoist groups who wouldn’t give in when they really should have as well as the last of the Islamists, but the conflict was nearly done with. The Tudeh had won. The communists had taken control of most of Iran and their fighters were now just mopping up. Kianouri had now established himself as president in Tehran in all but name as there was still a hasty referendum to organise to make Iran a republic: the Tudeh was set to win that, their victory was assured due to public support but more so being the ones organising it. That was taking some time though, as were a lot of things Kianouri discovered. The civil war might have been won but now there was the peace to win. Iran was in a mess: revolution and civil war will do that to a nation. The Provisional Administration set about fixing some things and making changes. It was decided that a key priority was a reset of international relations. The United States was informed that the emergency government was abrogating bi-lateral agreements on security and military affairs. At once, as expected, there came strong American complaints and statements made that such moves broke diplomatic behaviour etc. but Iran pushed on with its cutting of ties. This was a new Iran, not the old Iran. That new Iran started to officially improve ties with the Soviet Union plus Iraq too: Iran’s neighbours who had been of great assistance to the Iranian people in helping them liberate themselves. Part of the agreements made with the Soviets concerned immediate security and military assistance. These replaced what had been provided by the Americans, strengthened those in fact. In secret, Soviet advisers and volunteers arrived in Iran to help Iran rebuild. Both the KGB and the GRU had personnel among those ‘advisers’ and ‘volunteers’.

[lordroel]

Feb 13, 2018 18:33:54 GMT James G said:

The Iranian Civil War was coming to an end. There was still some ongoing fighting, among Maoist groups who wouldn’t give in when they really should have as well as the last of the Islamists, but the conflict was nearly done with. T

That is a short but bloody civil war it seems.

[James G]

Feb 13, 2018 18:41:45 GMT lordroel said:

Feb 13, 2018 18:33:54 GMT James G said:

The Iranian Civil War was coming to an end. There was still some ongoing fighting, among Maoist groups who wouldn’t give in when they really should have as well as the last of the Islamists, but the conflict was nearly done with. T

That is a short but bloody civil war it seems.

Five months. Tens of thousands dead. Not the biggest of conflicts but horrible for those involved as the fighting brings a cut in food supply and medical care nationwide.
Further troubles in Iran, coming from new friends abroad, will make 1979 far worse for Iranians too.

[lordroel]

Feb 13, 2018 18:52:54 GMT James G said:

Feb 13, 2018 18:41:45 GMT lordroel said:

That is a short but bloody civil war it seems.

Five months. Tens of thousands dead. Not the biggest of conflicts but horrible for those involved as the fighting brings a cut in food supply and medical care nationwide.
Further troubles in Iran, coming from new friends abroad, will make 1979 far worse for Iranians too.

Did the Saur Revolution of 1978 happen as OTL in Afghanistan.

[James G]

Feb 13, 2018 18:55:25 GMT lordroel said:

Feb 13, 2018 18:52:54 GMT James G said:

Five months. Tens of thousands dead. Not the biggest of conflicts but horrible for those involved as the fighting brings a cut in food supply and medical care nationwide.
Further troubles in Iran, coming from new friends abroad, will make 1979 far worse for Iranians too.

Did the Saur Revolution of 1978 happen as OTL in Afghanistan.

I really, really need to read up on Afghanistan more before I go there!
Not sure yet, will know by the end of this week as by the I will be covering Afghanistan.

[James G]

(16)

May 1979:

The regime of Somoza in Nicaragua had been being given much support from the United States throughout the presidency of Gerald Ford. Ford wasn’t directly involved in that matter and left it to the CIA under its director George Bush. Bush in turn left the nitty gritty details of the support given to those below him; he was a ‘big picture’ thinker – focusing on the Soviets – and was also in the process of beginning an exit from the CIA so he could attempt to fulfil his political ambitions, ones hurt though by recent events in Iran. Therefore, what exactly happened down in Nicaragua wasn’t something directly overseen by those above them in positions of ultimate responsibility yet it would be Ford and Bush who would ultimately get the blame. The rule of Somoza was opposed primarily by the Sandinista guerrilla movement and with CIA assistance, the war had been taken to them in the past few years with quite the ruthlessness employed. Nicaraguans got their hands dirty in that as they targeted Sandinista leadership figures who were identified and tracked by the CIA. Hitting military leaders was more difficult than the political leaders and so the deaths fell upon the latter. Nicaraguan death squads eliminated key thinkers and intellectuals within the Sandinistas to inadvertently leave behind a hard-core of fanatics who were hell-bent on bringing down the Somoza regime without compromise, without mercy and without rules. Ortega rose and rose in prominence with his hatred of Somoza matched too by his personal detest for long-standing American influence in the country.

The Sandinistas couldn’t and didn’t take the targeted killing without getting their own back. They too went after politicians from the Somoza regime and struck at the president himself, going through his family not him personally as he was too difficult to get to. Somoza’s eldest son was assassinated in late May after months of trying. Sandinista gunmen got lucky and filled him full of holes in an ambush. This was the heir to the dynasty, who was meant to be the third Somoza to become president of Nicaragua: that was no longer going to happen.

His father didn’t take it well. Somoza knew that the guns which killed his son had been provided by Cuba and that the gunmen had been trained in that country from where Castro was an implacable enemy of his. The CIA had already long provided him with the proof of what he had always known: for years now, Cuba had been involved in supporting the rebels in Nicaragua like they were elsewhere in Central America though now with extra impetus provided by the Soviet Union. Cuba was responsible and he vowed revenge. He was soon provided with a method to help get that revenge as the CIA worked to assist him with authorisation coming from senior figures in that organisation though not the very top. The Director of Central Intelligence, normally a very dedicated man, was distracted by politics and would pay dearly for that distraction. Somoza sent his own gunmen to Cuba with the CIA helping them on their way.

[lordroel]

Feb 13, 2018 21:50:18 GMT James G said:

Feb 13, 2018 18:55:25 GMT lordroel said:

Did the Saur Revolution of 1978 happen as OTL in Afghanistan.

I really, really need to read up on Afghanistan more before I go there!
Not sure yet, will know by the end of this week as by the I will be covering Afghanistan.

And i wonder in Iran will get involved in Afghanistan as well.

[James G]

Ah, we shall have to see.

[James G]

(17)

June 1979:

Pope John Paul II arrived in his native Poland and kissed the ground at the airport upon landing. The crowds had come out to cheer for their native son and they would follow him wherever he went throughout the country. Three million Poles attended the open-air mass he gave in Warsaw: three million was ten per cent of the population! He was home and the Polish people were glad to see him, most of them anyway. The Polish Government wasn’t. They had their intelligence people watching his every move and everyone he met with. They had riot police on standby ready to move in against the crowds should they detect trouble as occurring or ready to occur. The leadership in Warsaw was gravely concerned about the potential for protests and rioting that may come with the Pope’s visit and believed that they were ready to respond to that. There was no trouble though. The Pope’s visit went off smoothly. He was soon to depart and there were smiles in Warsaw once he had left. Their fears had been misplaced. They told themselves though that it was down to their preventative measures that had made sure that nothing had happened though and gave themselves a pat on the back.

The Soviet Union had watched with interest too at the visit. The ‘Polish Bishop’ was a source of irritation for Andropov, Chebrikov and some others on the Politburo for his past statements on human rights and religious freedom across the Eastern Bloc. Others in the Soviet Government weren’t as concerned by the Pope though, he was just a nuisance and any ideas of dealing with him like the Persian Trotsky had been were dismissed as unnecessary. The KGB had monitored the visit just as the Polish secret police had done and were likewise interested in who had met with John Paul II though not really concerned with faces in the crowds as the Poles had been. Still, the KGB also had been expecting some troubles to occur with protests against the Polish Government speculated as being likely. The Pope was linked in the minds of the KGB to much of the underground – non-violent – Polish resistance as he was regarded as the latest inspiration for keeping that alive. Back in 1976, when Poland had erupted in riots over food prices, that political opposition had begun. There were sympathisers with that cause though no real active support. That could change though. The KGB feared a spark coming from somewhere could see the regime in Warsaw in trouble like it had been then. That wasn’t wanted. Polish internal security would remain a focus of Soviet interest after the Pope had left. That spark had yet to come but there was a real concern that it eventually would.


Weeks later, across in Western Europe, the commander of NATO forces on the Continent (SACEUR) was assassinated in Belgium. General Al Haig – a political general to many of his detractors – was slain when the West German terrorist group known as the Red Army Faction (RAF) blew his car up with him inside. There had been warnings that something like this was likely and those warnings had been ignored. SACEUR took the same route to work at NATO headquarters every day, his security detachment gave in too much to his wishes for comfort & ease and there was evidence too that an attack like this had been scouted out by the RAF. They got lucky yet so much of that luck had been gifted too them.

The RAF were domestic terrorists inside West Germany. They operated in a cell-like structure and had access to modern weaponry. Their intelligence information often came to them from outside. No matter the denials made, the RAF were supported by the intelligence agencies of the Eastern Bloc: the East German Stasi primary but the KGB from afar. Those ties were deliberately indirect and thus hard to prove but they were real. The RAF didn’t do what it did because they were puppets of the East Germans and the Soviets yet they wouldn’t be able to operate as they did without that foreign support. The attempt made to kill SACEUR was known about and not openly opposed by the friends of the RAF across the Iron Curtain.

The purpose of the RAF assassination was to strike a blow against the Americans with their military presence in West Germany. Killing Haig certainly did that. The RAF wanted a propaganda coup too. That they also got. Moreover, it also caused a major war scare in Western Europe for several hours afterwards. That wasn’t visible to the public for what it was but it was very real. Before the perpetrators were identified, the assassination was interpreted by some as possibly being the opening strike of a war. A blot from the blue attack didn’t come though. NATO signals analysts and intelligence personnel saw no sign of an invasion. The crisis passed quickly. National leaders weren’t evacuated to bunkers, fighter jets didn’t fill the skies and missiles weren’t readied to fire. Still, there had been a lot of alarm. Once the RAF had been behind the killing of SACEUR, not a Soviet Spetsnaz commando team, calm returned. The after-affects when it came to the direction which the RAF would take with what they would do next were of more significance than that war scare.