Soviet Domination - A Red Dawn story

[lordroel]

Apr 22, 2018 18:47:23 GMT James G said:

Apr 22, 2018 18:42:30 GMT lordroel said:

Nice three updates, keep it up James, so many things happening and the big one has not even started yet.

There's a lot to happen before the start but the light is at the end of the tunnel.
Next Monday (April 30th) is a bank holiday so I am off work. That is the day - HOPEFULLY - where I can begin with the commencement of the war... if not, the next day. I have all my updates planned out and linked to that point. When it comes to the war's opening day: that is already written in my head.

Well take it easy, the Big One is not going anywhere without you, unless a real one starts in the meantime which i do hope is not going to happen.

[raunchel]

It's getting closer and closer. And now Lybia is drawing attention again, away from where it's really needed.

[James G]

Apr 22, 2018 19:57:34 GMT raunchel said:

It's getting closer and closer. And now Lybia is drawing attention again, away from where it's really needed.

Others will be playing from the same script too.

[lordroel]

Apr 22, 2018 20:04:30 GMT James G said:

Apr 22, 2018 19:57:34 GMT raunchel said:

It's getting closer and closer. And now Lybia is drawing attention again, away from where it's really needed.

Others will be playing from the same script too.

Written by people who most likely have a different ending to that script that what will most likely happen.

[James G]

Apr 23, 2018 3:50:44 GMT lordroel said:

Apr 22, 2018 20:04:30 GMT James G said:

Others will be playing from the same script too.

Written by people who most likely have a different ending to that script that what will most likely happen.

Very much so. Plenty will go wrong.

[James G]

(134)

Mid August 1984:

Noriega was eager to get on with it. He had deep concerns, secret worries that caused him great worry, that the Americans would find out what was coming and put a stop to that by acting first. In Panama, he was the only one who knew what was coming. He had told no one else that there would be an assault to take the Canal Zone very soon. No one else needed to know until closer to the time, those in the country which he ran would do as they were told following guidelines set down in exercises. Noriega didn’t trust anyone to keep their mouth shut… but then he didn’t trust anyone. When that time came, so far away it seemed, the Panamanian Army would attack. Before then though, just to make that more difficult – although the Soviets would send him some troops to assist; after hostilities began, not before – Noriega had to bring American attention towards Panama. He was in the same boat as Kim Il-sung was across in North Korea: seeing American troops arrive to reinforce what they had before that attack and therefore making the opposition stronger yet all for the purpose of leaving the American homeland exposed to attack. No further reinforcements would come afterwards for the Americans in Panama when the attack came, the plan ran, but before then, there would be reinforcements. There had come a message in the past week passed on from the Soviet military attaché at the embassy. It told him to begin the process of drawing enough attention now that the time was right.

The organised protests began again. This time the people were out in greater number than before. The events were stage-managed though meant to appear spontaneous. The call was for the Americans to leave and the Canal Zone to be turned over to the Panamanian people. Tens of thousands of people came out to demand this. Some did as they were told, but the majority joined in when given the right incentives. They were led by march directors out of Panama City and Colon towards American military bases where they made a lot of noise and this time were allowed to get a little ‘wild’. That they did. Cars were overturned. Windows were smashed. Mock US flags burnt. Curses and spittle were directed at American military personnel outside of the selected bases. Glass bottles were thrown. Fists were used in a few instances to try and harm sentries and guards. Rumours had spread through the crowds of some of the recent crimes committed by American servicemen against innocent Panamanians (all lies). The Americans had not just stolen Panamanian territory but they were violating its women too! Panamanian police were present and stood by while this happened. They did nothing to intervene. There were standing orders to move in if things got really bad, but it didn’t go that far. Enough was done for the intended purposes. Even if the Americans had an attack of the stupid, they would have to know that the Panamanian authorities had allowed these protests to happen and none nothing to stop the violence. That was intended. Noriega was to let them know he was doing this.

Noriega had the Panamanian Army out in the field again. More exercises were run, just outside the Canal Zone. These were far bigger than last time. There were two divisional headquarters active and troops answerable to them conducted live-fire exercises with assaults on defended positions. Each division was in all honesty no more than a brigade but Noriega was able to boast that his army was immensely strong by having both of those. Equipping those so-called divisions was not much armour nor heavy guns but a lot of man-portable weaponry. Some of it was American-sourced, other pieces from France: the French had been busy in recent years selling weapons across what parts of Latin America hadn’t been at war and Noriega had been a good client. The men themselves were a different beast. They were conscript soldiers and subject to harsh discipline. When the National Guard had been in existence, its job had been breaking the heads of unarmed civilians in support of the regime. Would these men be able to take part in a real fight? Could they survive modern combat? Were they able to be led effectively, especially when going up against the US Army? Those questions would be answered soon enough. There would come a decision in Washington to reinforce what American forces were in the Canal Zone on a deterrence mission. Noriega would show them how that deterrence would fail and also find out how good – or how bad – his Panamanian Army really was when not killing civilians but fighting real soldiers. Soon.

[lordroel]

Apr 23, 2018 17:56:24 GMT James G said:

(134)

Mid August 1984:

Noriega was eager to get on with it. He had deep concerns, secret worries that caused him great worry, that the Americans would find out what was coming and put a stop to that by acting first. In Panama, he was the only one who knew what was coming. He had told no one else that there would be an assault to take the Canal Zone very soon. No one else needed to know until closer to the time, those in the country which he ran would do as they were told following guidelines set down in exercises. Noriega didn’t trust anyone to keep their mouth shut… but then he didn’t trust anyone. When that time came, so far away it seemed, the Panamanian Army would attack. Before then though, just to make that more difficult – although the Soviets would send him some troops to assist; after hostilities began, not before – Noriega had to bring American attention towards Panama. He was in the same boat as Kim Il-sung was across in North Korea: seeing American troops arrive to reinforce what they had before that attack and therefore making the opposition stronger yet all for the purpose of leaving the American homeland exposed to attack. No further reinforcements would come afterwards for the Americans in Panama when the attack came, the plan ran, but before then, there would be reinforcements. There had come a message in the past week passed on from the Soviet military attaché at the embassy. It told him to begin the process of drawing enough attention now that the time was right.

The organised protests began again. This time the people were out in greater number than before. The events were stage-managed though meant to appear spontaneous. The call was for the Americans to leave and the Canal Zone to be turned over to the Panamanian people. Tens of thousands of people came out to demand this. Some did as they were told, but the majority joined in when given the right incentives. They were led by march directors out of Panama City and Colon towards American military bases where they made a lot of noise and this time were allowed to get a little ‘wild’. That they did. Cars were overturned. Windows were smashed. Mock US flags burnt. Curses and spittle were directed at American military personnel outside of the selected bases. Glass bottles were thrown. Fists were used in a few instances to try and harm sentries and guards. Rumours had spread through the crowds of some of the recent crimes committed by American servicemen against innocent Panamanians (all lies). The Americans had not just stolen Panamanian territory but they were violating its women too! Panamanian police were present and stood by while this happened. They did nothing to intervene. There were standing orders to move in if things got really bad, but it didn’t go that far. Enough was done for the intended purposes. Even if the Americans had an attack of the stupid, they would have to know that the Panamanian authorities had allowed these protests to happen and none nothing to stop the violence. That was intended. Noriega was to let them know he was doing this.

Noriega had the Panamanian Army out in the field again. More exercises were run, just outside the Canal Zone. These were far bigger than last time. There were two divisional headquarters active and troops answerable to them conducted live-fire exercises with assaults on defended positions. Each division was in all honesty no more than a brigade but Noriega was able to boast that his army was immensely strong by having both of those. Equipping those so-called divisions was not much armour nor heavy guns but a lot of man-portable weaponry. Some of it was American-sourced, other pieces from France: the French had been busy in recent years selling weapons across what parts of Latin America hadn’t been at war and Noriega had been a good client. The men themselves were a different beast. They were conscript soldiers and subject to harsh discipline. When the National Guard had been in existence, its job had been breaking the heads of unarmed civilians in support of the regime. Would these men be able to take part in a real fight? Could they survive modern combat? Were they able to be led effectively, especially when going up against the US Army? Those questions would be answered soon enough. There would come a decision in Washington to reinforce what American forces were in the Canal Zone on a deterrence mission. Noriega would show them how that deterrence would fail and also find out how good – or how bad – his Panamanian Army really was when not killing civilians but fighting real soldiers. Soon.

So how is the Panamanian Army compared in strength and size compared to OTL 1984.

[lordbyron]

Methinks Noreiga's plans are not going to go as he thinks...

Waiting for more...

[James G]

Apr 23, 2018 17:59:01 GMT lordroel said:

Apr 23, 2018 17:56:24 GMT James G said:

(134)

Mid August 1984:

Noriega was eager to get on with it. He had deep concerns, secret worries that caused him great worry, that the Americans would find out what was coming and put a stop to that by acting first. In Panama, he was the only one who knew what was coming. He had told no one else that there would be an assault to take the Canal Zone very soon. No one else needed to know until closer to the time, those in the country which he ran would do as they were told following guidelines set down in exercises. Noriega didn’t trust anyone to keep their mouth shut… but then he didn’t trust anyone. When that time came, so far away it seemed, the Panamanian Army would attack. Before then though, just to make that more difficult – although the Soviets would send him some troops to assist; after hostilities began, not before – Noriega had to bring American attention towards Panama. He was in the same boat as Kim Il-sung was across in North Korea: seeing American troops arrive to reinforce what they had before that attack and therefore making the opposition stronger yet all for the purpose of leaving the American homeland exposed to attack. No further reinforcements would come afterwards for the Americans in Panama when the attack came, the plan ran, but before then, there would be reinforcements. There had come a message in the past week passed on from the Soviet military attaché at the embassy. It told him to begin the process of drawing enough attention now that the time was right.

The organised protests began again. This time the people were out in greater number than before. The events were stage-managed though meant to appear spontaneous. The call was for the Americans to leave and the Canal Zone to be turned over to the Panamanian people. Tens of thousands of people came out to demand this. Some did as they were told, but the majority joined in when given the right incentives. They were led by march directors out of Panama City and Colon towards American military bases where they made a lot of noise and this time were allowed to get a little ‘wild’. That they did. Cars were overturned. Windows were smashed. Mock US flags burnt. Curses and spittle were directed at American military personnel outside of the selected bases. Glass bottles were thrown. Fists were used in a few instances to try and harm sentries and guards. Rumours had spread through the crowds of some of the recent crimes committed by American servicemen against innocent Panamanians (all lies). The Americans had not just stolen Panamanian territory but they were violating its women too! Panamanian police were present and stood by while this happened. They did nothing to intervene. There were standing orders to move in if things got really bad, but it didn’t go that far. Enough was done for the intended purposes. Even if the Americans had an attack of the stupid, they would have to know that the Panamanian authorities had allowed these protests to happen and none nothing to stop the violence. That was intended. Noriega was to let them know he was doing this.

Noriega had the Panamanian Army out in the field again. More exercises were run, just outside the Canal Zone. These were far bigger than last time. There were two divisional headquarters active and troops answerable to them conducted live-fire exercises with assaults on defended positions. Each division was in all honesty no more than a brigade but Noriega was able to boast that his army was immensely strong by having both of those. Equipping those so-called divisions was not much armour nor heavy guns but a lot of man-portable weaponry. Some of it was American-sourced, other pieces from France: the French had been busy in recent years selling weapons across what parts of Latin America hadn’t been at war and Noriega had been a good client. The men themselves were a different beast. They were conscript soldiers and subject to harsh discipline. When the National Guard had been in existence, its job had been breaking the heads of unarmed civilians in support of the regime. Would these men be able to take part in a real fight? Could they survive modern combat? Were they able to be led effectively, especially when going up against the US Army? Those questions would be answered soon enough. There would come a decision in Washington to reinforce what American forces were in the Canal Zone on a deterrence mission. Noriega would show them how that deterrence would fail and also find out how good – or how bad – his Panamanian Army really was when not killing civilians but fighting real soldiers. Soon.

So how is the Panamanian Army compared in strength and size compared to OTL 1984.

Bigger and better-armed. The National Guard was there to kill unarmed civilians; this new Army is supposed to fight in a real war.

Apr 23, 2018 18:00:14 GMT lordbyron said:

Methinks Noreiga's plans are not going to go as he thinks...

Waiting for more...

Big mistake. You do not invite the Soviet Army into your country.

[James G]

(135)

Mid August 1984:

The highest-levels of thinkers at the Pentagon, the smartest guys in the room, had said that there would be an assault to take Saltillo and then afterwards the Mexican communists would advance down towards Monterrey for yet another set-piece assault. The first city would have to fall before the capital of the Northern Alliance would be taken. That made sense. Saltillo and the troops forced into there couldn’t be left to threaten the rear of an attack on Monterrey. No one had told Tirado López’s Nicaraguan military advisers nor his own Mexican generals that that was how things were meant to go though. Even if they had, they were doing what they were to end the civil war as directed from Havana, not the Pentagon. Everyone recognised that the capture of Monterrey would do that yet there were those two schools of thought as to how that could be brought about. In Mexico City, bypassing Saltillo was judged to be worth the risk for there was no offensive capability in its garrison. Moreover, from Havana, there came the rush to get on with things and end this for good. There was a timetable that was in danger of slipping. Northern Alliance territory all the way up to the Rio Grande needed to be taken and Monterrey stood in opposition to that. It was the key to unlocking the end.

Cuban troops were involved in the attack on Monterrey. It was Managua in 1980 all over again when they had been there to bring down the Somoza regime. This time as they brought down the Northern Alliance they were a little less open in their presence but there they were to help in the assault playing a key role again. Light yet heavily-armed troops were mixed in with Mexican communist forces which came down from the mountains above and away to the west. Most were on foot or in light vehicles yet there were also aircraft in the sky. Flying back over Texas, the crew of a US Air Force E-3 Sentry were witness (via radar screens) to a whole load of airborne contacts detected in the Monterrey area where before there had been a dearth of air activity. It was known that the Mexican communist were using light aircraft to fly around small groups of men – some of which had been shot down – but there were many contacts all at once. One of the battle staff aboard suddenly realised what he was seeing: airborne assault! Standing orders while Operation Avid Castle was still going on were that Mexican communist aircraft and helicopters were to be engaged if possible but this was quite the big deal with so many targets in the sky and no fighters at once available. Those aircraft near Monterrey were low-flying turboprops of all shapes and sizes and were soon dropping parachutists as well as weapons canisters. A flight of F-16s was eventually on-station after racing down and ready to engage plenty of defenceless targets, which they did, but against retreating aircraft which had no idea of what came down from above to hit them with missiles. That was too late though. The Cubans paratroopers were already taking part alongside Mexican communists in getting into Monterrey from nearby landing sites and far behind forward defences, those already being hit by frontal assaults all over the place. Inside Monterrey, the US Embassy was located at a hotel that the Americans had fully taken over and surrounded by US Marines: the only boots on the ground in Mexico. There was the diplomatic presence at that hotel and also the presence of the official military mission to the Northern Alliance. When the assault came on the city’s edges, that building was wracked by gunfire inside and then the detonation of several bombs throughout. The terror attack was something supposed to be guarded against and in part it failed where it didn’t see the deaths of neither the ambassador nor the senior US military staff as planned. Regardless, it was seen as quite the blow to the United States.


Monterrey fell during the night of August 18th / 19th after the initial morning attack. In less than twenty-four hours, the Northern Alliance lost their capital. Those at the embassy waited for instructions following the ambassador’s request to urgently leave the city like the Monterrey Government was. Washington appeared to be twiddling their thumbs rather than making a decision. President Herzog Flores and some of his government escaped; others weren’t so lucky. It was to Nuevo Laredo on the border opposite Texas where Herzog Flores was going. The Monterrey Government – they were going to need a new name, weren’t they? – was now in its last days. The Americans stayed behind in Monterrey, retreating into their compound, while around them more and more Mexican communist troops (but not Cubans) flooded into the city. As before in other cities, there would be a blood-reckoning as the Red Terror arrived.

Up in Washington, Kennedy met with the National Security Council. He was told that despite their efforts to disguise their presence, Cubans had been spotted involved in the taking of Monterrey. They were there and they might be elsewhere in Mexico too… there might have been some mis-identification of Cuban soldiers as Guatemalans & Nicaraguans instead. The president asked what would it take to roll back the tide of the hostile advances? The answer was the same as before: boots on the ground, in addition to far bigger air strikes such as B-52s on Arc Light missions. Only the full shebang could stop the final fall of democratic Mexico and a reaching of the US-Mexican border down almost all of its length by communist forces. Nothing else could stop that.

[raunchel]

Now this is a hard decision. At this time, with the current political situation, going for a full war will be difficult and incredibly expensive. The Vietnam trauma is still too recent. But not acting also isn't much of an option. Not with communists on the border.

[lordroel]

Apr 23, 2018 19:43:27 GMT James G said:

(135)

Mid August 1984:

The highest-levels of thinkers at the Pentagon, the smartest guys in the room, had said that there would be an assault to take Saltillo and then afterwards the Mexican communists would advance down towards Monterrey for yet another set-piece assault. The first city would have to fall before the capital of the Northern Alliance would be taken. That made sense. Saltillo and the troops forced into there couldn’t be left to threaten the rear of an attack on Monterrey. No one had told Tirado López’s Nicaraguan military advisers nor his own Mexican generals that that was how things were meant to go though. Even if they had, they were doing what they were to end the civil war as directed from Havana, not the Pentagon. Everyone recognised that the capture of Monterrey would do that yet there were those two schools of thought as to how that could be brought about. In Mexico City, bypassing Saltillo was judged to be worth the risk for there was no offensive capability in its garrison. Moreover, from Havana, there came the rush to get on with things and end this for good. There was a timetable that was in danger of slipping. Northern Alliance territory all the way up to the Rio Grande needed to be taken and Monterrey stood in opposition to that. It was the key to unlocking the end.

Cuban troops were involved in the attack on Monterrey. It was Managua in 1980 all over again when they had been there to bring down the Somoza regime. This time as they brought down the Northern Alliance they were a little less open in their presence but there they were to help in the assault playing a key role again. Light yet heavily-armed troops were mixed in with Mexican communist forces which came down from the mountains above and away to the west. Most were on foot or in light vehicles yet there were also aircraft in the sky. Flying back over Texas, the crew of a US Air Force E-3 Sentry were witness (via radar screens) to a whole load of airborne contacts detected in the Monterrey area where before there had been a dearth of air activity. It was known that the Mexican communist were using light aircraft to fly around small groups of men – some of which had been shot down – but there were many contacts all at once. One of the battle staff aboard suddenly realised what he was seeing: airborne assault! Standing orders while Operation Avid Castle was still going on were that Mexican communist aircraft and helicopters were to be engaged if possible but this was quite the big deal with so many targets in the sky and no fighters at once available. Those aircraft near Monterrey were low-flying turboprops of all shapes and sizes and were soon dropping parachutists as well as weapons canisters. A flight of F-16s was eventually on-station after racing down and ready to engage plenty of defenceless targets, which they did, but against retreating aircraft which had no idea of what came down from above to hit them with missiles. That was too late though. The Cubans paratroopers were already taking part alongside Mexican communists in getting into Monterrey from nearby landing sites and far behind forward defences, those already being hit by frontal assaults all over the place. Inside Monterrey, the US Embassy was located at a hotel that the Americans had fully taken over and surrounded by US Marines: the only boots on the ground in Mexico. There was the diplomatic presence at that hotel and also the presence of the official military mission to the Northern Alliance. When the assault came on the city’s edges, that building was wracked by gunfire inside and then the detonation of several bombs throughout. The terror attack was something supposed to be guarded against and in part it failed where it didn’t see the deaths of neither the ambassador nor the senior US military staff as planned. Regardless, it was seen as quite the blow to the United States.


Monterrey fell during the night of August 18th / 19th after the initial morning attack. In less than twenty-four hours, the Northern Alliance lost their capital. Those at the embassy waited for instructions following the ambassador’s request to urgently leave the city like the Monterrey Government was. Washington appeared to be twiddling their thumbs rather than making a decision. President Herzog Flores and some of his government escaped; others weren’t so lucky. It was to Laredo on the border opposite Texas where Herzog Flores was going. The Monterrey Government – they were going to need a new name, weren’t they? – was now in its last days. The Americans stayed behind in Monterrey, retreating into their compound, while around them more and more Mexican communist troops (but not Cubans) flooded into the city. As before in other cities, there would be a blood-reckoning as the Red Terror arrived.

Up in Washington, Kennedy met with the National Security Council. He was told that despite their efforts to disguise their presence, Cubans had been spotted involved in the taking of Monterrey. They were there and they might be elsewhere in Mexico too… there might have been some mis-identification of Cuban soldiers as Guatemalans & Nicaraguans instead. The president asked what would it take to roll back the tide of the hostile advances? The answer was the same as before: boots on the ground, in addition to far bigger air strikes such as B-52s on Arc Light missions. Only the full shebang could stop the final fall of democratic Mexico and a reaching of the US-Mexican border down almost all of its length by communist forces. Nothing else could stop that.

I wonder what would have happen if the generals got what they wanted and had boots on the ground and increase B-52s missions.

[James G]

Apr 23, 2018 19:57:09 GMT raunchel said:

Now this is a hard decision. At this time, with the current political situation, going for a full war will be difficult and incredibly expensive. The Vietnam trauma is still too recent. But not acting also isn't much of an option. Not with communists on the border.

It would be political dynamite. Kennedy would lose his base for the upcoming election.
He is stuck and about to get major distracted but this time without the hand of Moscow.

Apr 24, 2018 3:50:17 GMT lordroel said:

I wonder what would have happen if the generals got what they wanted and had boots on the ground and increase B-52s missions.

Vietnam X10 from the Rio Grande to the Panama Canal!

[stevep]

Well that ended quicker than I expected but as you say Moscow is on a tight schedule.

Not sure boots on the ground would have had such a dramatic effect as if there was hope I suspect the communist domination and its measures are probably pretty unpleasant in places. However would still be bloody for all involved.

[James G]

Apr 24, 2018 10:39:48 GMT stevep said:

Well that ended quicker than I expected but as you say Moscow is on a tight schedule.

Not sure boots on the ground would have had such a dramatic effect as if there was hope I suspect the communist domination and its measures are probably pretty unpleasant in places. However would still be bloody for all involved.

There is still some mopping up to do and Baja is holding out but otherwise the way ahead is clear. Cuban Nicaraguan and Guatemalan forces will stay far back though.
You're right. I overstated that. Politically at home in the US it would look like that though.