AH Challenge: Keep Algeria French

[James G]

What non outlandish ways would there be to keep Algeria an integral part of France?
I was thinking that France wins the First Indochina War or maybe Suez goes a different way?
Anyway of doing this without France needing to go full genocide on the natives to keep French Algeria?

[stevep]

Mar 6, 2018 12:24:13 GMT James G said:

What non outlandish ways would there be to keep Algeria an integral part of France?
I was thinking that France wins the First Indochina War or maybe Suez goes a different way?
Anyway of doing this without France needing to go full genocide on the natives to keep French Algeria?

  Not sure how practical either of those POD are but I doubt either would be that effective in altering the path to Algerian independence.  I think you would need to have the French give the 'native' population full equality in terms of social support, equal voting rights [which I suspect was not the case] and accept long term the presence inside 'France' of a significant and probably growing percentage wise Muslim minority.  This would not only be politically difficult and be resented by the French settlers in Algeria who would lose their privileges but also the wider French population as to give them full equality in terms of social services and the like would be hugely expensive.

  Even if somehow the French did all this there is still likely to be a sizeable bloc in Algeria who would want at least autonomy and France is, since 1789 anyway traditionally a highly centralised state.  Also even if somehow the European French accepted a large Muslim group as their equals your likely to having some Muslims arguing that they must live in a Muslim state - and meaning having Algeria independent rather than moving elsewhere.  Also with Algeria bordered by independent and overwhelmingly Muslim states there is always going to be a pull toward an independent, Muslim and N African identity.

  The least ASB and I suspect its not far from it way I could see it might work would be if France as a coloniser was far less religious tolerant,  Either seeking to force conversion to Catholicism or at the least giving significant advantages to those Algerians who did convert and a large proportion of the population, preferably a majority, did end up converting.  As such they might see themselves as predominantly French and possibly threatened by the surrounding Muslim states and hence cling closely to Paris.  However even apart from France's own conflicts between church and state since the 1790s the huge hostility this would generate inside the Muslim world, including those parts under French colonial rule this is very difficult to see occurring.  Plus even then your likely to see a significant minority who cling to Islam and unless their expelled when neighbouring colonies become independent that's going to be a continuous source of friction and conflict.

[lukedalton]

Maybe not all Algeria but the part with the greater presence of pied-noir (and the more industrializated) like Oran can be kept, if quickly separated from the rest of Algeria (that will be treated as a normal colony and later given independence) and basically became the French redoubt in North Africa

[James G]

Mar 6, 2018 13:03:21 GMT stevep said:

Mar 6, 2018 12:24:13 GMT James G said:

What non outlandish ways would there be to keep Algeria an integral part of France?
I was thinking that France wins the First Indochina War or maybe Suez goes a different way?
Anyway of doing this without France needing to go full genocide on the natives to keep French Algeria?

  Not sure how practical either of those POD are but I doubt either would be that effective in altering the path to Algerian independence.  I think you would need to have the French give the 'native' population full equality in terms of social support, equal voting rights [which I suspect was not the case] and accept long term the presence inside 'France' of a significant and probably growing percentage wise Muslim minority.  This would not only be politically difficult and be resented by the French settlers in Algeria who would lose their privileges but also the wider French population as to give them full equality in terms of social services and the like would be hugely expensive.

  Even if somehow the French did all this there is still likely to be a sizeable bloc in Algeria who would want at least autonomy and France is, since 1789 anyway traditionally a highly centralised state.  Also even if somehow the European French accepted a large Muslim group as their equals your likely to having some Muslims arguing that they must live in a Muslim state - and meaning having Algeria independent rather than moving elsewhere.  Also with Algeria bordered by independent and overwhelmingly Muslim states there is always going to be a pull toward an independent, Muslim and N African identity.

  The least ASB and I suspect its not far from it way I could see it might work would be if France as a coloniser was far less religious tolerant,  Either seeking to force conversion to Catholicism or at the least giving significant advantages to those Algerians who did convert and a large proportion of the population, preferably a majority, did end up converting.  As such they might see themselves as predominantly French and possibly threatened by the surrounding Muslim states and hence cling closely to Paris.  However even apart from France's own conflicts between church and state since the 1790s the huge hostility this would generate inside the Muslim world, including those parts under French colonial rule this is very difficult to see occurring.  Plus even then your likely to see a significant minority who cling to Islam and unless their expelled when neighbouring colonies become independent that's going to be a continuous source of friction and conflict.

Yep, this really looks impossible to do. Those are very valid points.
Follow up: what about a Ceuta / Mellila style outpost of France? Algiers or even Oran might be too much but a smaller port town on the coast made French?

[stevep]

Mar 6, 2018 21:17:07 GMT James G said:

Mar 6, 2018 13:03:21 GMT stevep said:

  Not sure how practical either of those POD are but I doubt either would be that effective in altering the path to Algerian independence.  I think you would need to have the French give the 'native' population full equality in terms of social support, equal voting rights [which I suspect was not the case] and accept long term the presence inside 'France' of a significant and probably growing percentage wise Muslim minority.  This would not only be politically difficult and be resented by the French settlers in Algeria who would lose their privileges but also the wider French population as to give them full equality in terms of social services and the like would be hugely expensive.

  Even if somehow the French did all this there is still likely to be a sizeable bloc in Algeria who would want at least autonomy and France is, since 1789 anyway traditionally a highly centralised state.  Also even if somehow the European French accepted a large Muslim group as their equals your likely to having some Muslims arguing that they must live in a Muslim state - and meaning having Algeria independent rather than moving elsewhere.  Also with Algeria bordered by independent and overwhelmingly Muslim states there is always going to be a pull toward an independent, Muslim and N African identity.

  The least ASB and I suspect its not far from it way I could see it might work would be if France as a coloniser was far less religious tolerant,  Either seeking to force conversion to Catholicism or at the least giving significant advantages to those Algerians who did convert and a large proportion of the population, preferably a majority, did end up converting.  As such they might see themselves as predominantly French and possibly threatened by the surrounding Muslim states and hence cling closely to Paris.  However even apart from France's own conflicts between church and state since the 1790s the huge hostility this would generate inside the Muslim world, including those parts under French colonial rule this is very difficult to see occurring.  Plus even then your likely to see a significant minority who cling to Islam and unless their expelled when neighbouring colonies become independent that's going to be a continuous source of friction and conflict.

Yep, this really looks impossible to do. Those are very valid points.
Follow up: what about a Ceuta / Mellila style outpost of France? Algiers or even Oran might be too much but a smaller port town on the coast made French?

  I think Luke has a decent point there.  Not sure how big an outpost or more than one but you could end up with some coastal regions in a similar role to Ceuta say.  Possibly a fair bit bigger, but a lot would depend on the circumstances, especially probably the relationship with the rest of Algeria.  If that is nasty it would be difficult to maintain a lodgement unless large enough that it could house a strong garrison and have much of it beyond artillery range of Algeria.  Possibly also if the French could manage to Balkanise Algeria to some degree, say if there's a significant Berber population.  - Checking the Wiki entry there are a lot of people of Berber descent, possibly a majority but Wiki says

Despite the dominance of the Berber culture and ethnicity in Algeria, the majority of Algerians identify with an Arabic-based identity, especially after the Arab nationalism rising in the 20th century

  If this division could be highlighted prior to the independence movement becoming powerful and then the French are relatively liberal you might get a reasonably stable situation.  Possibly with a predominantly Berber Algeria or large parts of it even looking to the French enclaves as allies against Arabic pressure/encroachment.  However this might be pretty difficult to maintain even if the French set out on this at a fairly early stage rather than being determined to keep all of Algeria as national territory.  Also I don't know how widely the European settlers were spread as they might well object to giving up large areas of the country and being restricted to a relatively small section.

[jasonsnow]

If you wanna go extreme, full military authority and ruthless laws are your only option. You'll have the UN and Amnesty International all over your hair and develop some serious bad rap among European countries but hey, you got Algeria. Many would die in the process, which is obviously not cool. At some point or another, France gotta give up on Algeria some way or another.

Or how about a French version of the Commonwealth? Split up the territory in smaller countries and let them form a Francophone community, Commonwealth-style. The only problem is that you have no monarchic figurehead to keep things together and no true sense of unity. Still, sounds good.

[futurist]

Mar 6, 2018 12:24:13 GMT James G said:

What non outlandish ways would there be to keep Algeria an integral part of France?
I was thinking that France wins the First Indochina War or maybe Suez goes a different way?
Anyway of doing this without France needing to go full genocide on the natives to keep French Algeria?

How far back do you want to go?

After all, I could see France permanently keeping a part of Algeria if the World Wars were completely avoided and if the pied-noir population in Algeria was 25-30% rather than our TL's 10-15% (as a result of greater European immigration to Algeria; after all, a lot of young European men were killed in World War I). If you add on the, say, 10-15% of Algerian Muslims who supported continued French rule (they were called harkis), you could get a situation where 35-40% of Algeria's total population supports continued French rule (though this percentage might diminish over time since pieds-noirs are probably, on average, going to be less fertile than Algerian Muslims are). In such a scenario, I could see France permanently keeping a part of Algeria--probably some of the coastal cities. That said, though, there would probably need to be some population transfers in order to create cleaner borders and in order to ensure that the independent Muslim Algerian state will be viable (basically, the Europeans can't keep all of the Algerian ports for themselves).

Of course, you could try keeping all of Algeria under French rule by giving full rights and full equality to Algeria's entire Muslim population and by consistently and massively subsidizing Algeria out of the French budget. This might be how the Soviet Union was able to retain the loyalty of Muslim Central Asians; indeed, Muslim Central Asians opposed the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. However, please keep in mind that such an approach could generate a lot of resentment in a democratic society. After all, Algerian Muslims might, say, demand that some seats be set aside for them in the French Parliament or that a certain percentage (as in, a quota) of them would have guaranteed admission to French universities. There could also be a lot of French resentment in regards to subsidizing the Algerians--especially if Algerian living standards and academic performance won't converge to French levels after several generations of equality.

Basically, in such a scenario, you'd have a lot of French people complaining about many Algerians being "welfare queens" or about how less qualified Algerian students are taking their place at France's universities, medical schools, et cetera. In other words, it would be a French equivalent of many White Americans' anger at affirmative action and welfare dependency in the United States of America. Of course, the tension might be more intense in France considering that the cultural gap between Muslim Algerians and European Christian or non-religious French people would probably be greater than the cultural gap between Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics in the U.S.

Long story short: I am unsure that the French people would be willing to accept full equality for the entire Algerian population. Indeed, rather than share a country with Algerians as equals, most French people might very well prefer to withdraw from Algeria--or at least from most of Algeria (depending on just how large the pied-noir presence in Algeria is in this TL).