MOABE: What if Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not assassinated.

[jasonsnow]

A sandwich started World War I.

It's not an exaggeration. Really, a sandwich was what altered the course of human history, mind and ideology for all eternity. And, very remotely, if you count the aftermath effects of World War I and its ideological effect on the German people, it also was a driving factor behind World War II and all its subsequent events. Millions upon millions of people died because a sandwich.

It was a sunny 1914 summer day in Sarajevo, in the Bosnian territory of Austria-Hungary. Archduke Franz Ferdinand rides with his wife Sophie the Duchess, in a roofless car, across the snaking roads of the city. The couple are on their way to the hospital, hoping to visit the injured from a bomb attack destined to end their lives. However, the driver takes the wrong turn. The vehicle veers its way down a narrow street, close by to a small café. A young Serb turns in awe as he looks the couple rolling down the road, perfectly in sight, right next to him. He quickly reaches for his FN Model 1910 pistol, and takes careful aim as the Archduke arches his neck.

He is tackled.

A bystander saw just as the would-be assassin was ready to take the shot. He pins the young Serb, with the name of Gavrilo Princip, into the stone floor. Two police officers jump into the scene, apprehending Princip and confiscating his pistol. The Serb, however, is strong-willed, and is able to kick the bystander away. He swipes a knife from his trousers and with a swift move slits the officer's hand, retrieving his handgun in the instant. In a marvelous act of coordination, he stabs a cop and shoots into the other. He rises, just as the Archduke's car speeds away.

The couple had no idea he was there.

During this quick second, more cops rush into the scene. Gavrilo turns and attempts to flee, however one of the officers shoot him in the leg just as the Serb attempts to run. He falls down and is taken away. 

Princip confessed of his participation in the conspiracy against the Archduke's life. He reveals the whole movement, aiding in the capture of his fellow conspirators. He is given 15 years in prison, a light sentence as reward for his cooperation. The leader of the conspiracy, as well as three others, are given the death penalty. 

So it ends the conspiracy. A few days later, the Archduke leaves Sarajevo, alive and well.


So this is just an idea. What would happen if the man wasn't killed? The ramifications and effects would be beyond imagination. This is MOABE: Mother Of All Butterly Effects. Come on, people, let's make this happen!

[raunchel]

I'm not really sure. I could see a war still breaking out because of some other event, the great powers really were in a terrible situation in that regard. But on the other hand, a little more time could have seen some alliances switch again, and of course, it gives us more buildup too.

[lordroel]

Mar 31, 2018 3:41:30 GMT jasonsnow said:

A sandwich started World War I.

It's not an exaggeration. Really, a sandwich was what altered the course of human history, mind and ideology for all eternity. And, very remotely, if you count the aftermath effects of World War I and its ideological effect on the German people, it also was a driving factor behind World War II and all its subsequent events. Millions upon millions of people died because a sandwich.

It was a sunny 1914 summer day in Sarajevo, in the Bosnian territory of Austria-Hungary. Archduke Franz Ferdinand rides with his wife Sophie the Duchess, in a roofless car, across the snaking roads of the city. The couple are on their way to the hospital, hoping to visit the injured from a bomb attack destined to end their lives. However, the driver takes the wrong turn. The vehicle veers its way down a narrow street, close by to a small café. A young Serb turns in awe as he looks the couple rolling down the road, perfectly in sight, right next to him. He quickly reaches for his FN Model 1910 pistol, and takes careful aim as the Archduke arches his neck.

He is tackled.

A bystander saw just as the would-be assassin was ready to take the shot. He pins the young Serb, with the name of Gavrilo Princip, into the stone floor. Two police officers jump into the scene, apprehending Princip and confiscating his pistol. The Serb, however, is strong-willed, and is able to kick the bystander away. He swipes a knife from his trousers and with a swift move slits the officer's hand, retrieving his handgun in the instant. In a marvelous act of coordination, he stabs a cop and shoots into the other. He rises, just as the Archduke's car speeds away.

The couple had no idea he was there.

During this quick second, more cops rush into the scene. Gavrilo turns and attempts to flee, however one of the officers shoot him in the leg just as the Serb attempts to run. He falls down and is taken away. 

Princip confessed of his participation in the conspiracy against the Archduke's life. He reveals the whole movement, aiding in the capture of his fellow conspirators. He is given 15 years in prison, a light sentence as reward for his cooperation. The leader of the conspiracy, as well as three others, are given the death penalty. 

So it ends the conspiracy. A few days later, the Archduke leaves Sarajevo, alive and well.


So this is just an idea. What would happen if the man wasn't killed? The ramifications and effects would be beyond imagination. This is MOABE: Mother Of All Butterly Effects. Come on, people, let's make this happen!

Well the Great War does not happen for now, but tensions where already high i believe that it was only a matter of time until something set it of.

[stevep]

It could go either way. Germany was concerned about the growing strength of Russia and there was a view in the Germany military that by 1917 Russia would be too strong for it to be ignored while Germany knocked out France, which of course they failed to do anyway. True the war suggests this estimation of Russia was exaggerated their strength by a large measure.

This means, depending on the interpretation of the German leadership that either they seek to trigger a war before then or if the powers avoid a clash for another 2-3 years things change. Other powers had a similar over-estimation of Russia so you could see an Anglo-German-Japanese alliance, as all three powers were concerned about Russia in various areas. Not sure where this leaves France but Britain would probably insist on no German attack on France as part of any alliance and make a similar warning to France. [It wouldn't want a perceived Russian threat to be replaced by an even greater threat of a Germany totally dominant on the continent west of Russia itself].

There are assorted other factors to consider. While Russia was making considerable progress it was still potentially deeply unstable because of the autocratic nature of the regime and the failure of the Czar especially to see that change must come. Germany had its own problems with the growing pressure for social change opposing the domination of the Prussian junkers. Britain had a still fairly limited franchise and the growing tension between the two extremes in Ireland. Lots of problems that could spark either a general war or keep one or more powers highly distracted for several years. Or you get a re-allignment with the aim of 'containing' Russia which might or might not lead to a major war.

Jason - by the mention of the sandwich did you mean that Princip had stopped for a sandwich, which was why he was at the cafe? Or that in OTL the bystander was eating a sandwich and hence unable to tackle him? I have read that he was ready to give up as it seemed he wouldn't get a shot so was taken by surprise when the wrong turning occurred and he suddenly got the chance.

One other thing of course is that, provided another assassin doesn't get him F-F survives and in a few years will become emperor of Austria. Apparently he was very determined to change the regime, giving more power to more of the minorities and especially the Serbs, which put him on a collision course with the Magyar aristocrats, who I think he despised so there's a good chance of civil war inside the empire but of it surviving and probably having a longer existence. Also I could be remembering it wrongly but I think he had doubts about the alliance with Germany.

[jasonsnow]

It is actually true Princip stopped for a sandwich at the Moritz Schiller café just as the Archduke unexpectedly passed by. Historians agree that if Princip had just left for home once the initial attack failed, the Archduke would've been saved. However, I wanted to add some more thrill to it! Interesting conclusions... I must agree, especially with the last bit. Certainly, the Empire would've changed completely under Ferdinand, possibly initiating a broader conflict from within the Empire. Perhaps, even, the breakup of several minorities.

[lordroel]

Mar 31, 2018 13:39:48 GMT jasonsnow said:

It is actually true Princip stopped for a sandwich at the Moritz Schiller café just as the Archduke unexpectedly passed by. Historians agree that if Princip had just left for home once the initial attack failed, the Archduke would've been saved. However, I wanted to add some more thrill to it! Interesting conclusions... I must agree, especially with the last bit. Certainly, the Empire would've changed completely under Ferdinand, possibly initiating a broader conflict from within the Empire. Perhaps, even, the breakup of several minorities.

Wait you say that a Sandwich could have prevented the deaths of millions.

[stevep]

Mar 31, 2018 13:47:51 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 31, 2018 13:39:48 GMT jasonsnow said:

It is actually true Princip stopped for a sandwich at the Moritz Schiller café just as the Archduke unexpectedly passed by. Historians agree that if Princip had just left for home once the initial attack failed, the Archduke would've been saved. However, I wanted to add some more thrill to it! Interesting conclusions... I must agree, especially with the last bit. Certainly, the Empire would've changed completely under Ferdinand, possibly initiating a broader conflict from within the Empire. Perhaps, even, the breakup of several minorities.

Wait you say that a Sandwich could have prevented the deaths of millions.

  Well if he hadn't have stopped for the sandwich he wouldn't have been in a position to shoot F-F.  If no butterflies occur to change things back you might avoid WWI.  Also as Jason says avoid that and you might avoid other problems, possibly including the rise of both communism and fascism.

[jasonsnow]

Well, there is a pretty big chance fascism would've not risen. The ancient notions of colonialism, imperialism and monarchic rule would've lasted much longer, possibly offsetting several major discoveries and ideas that built modern society. Communism is also kind of unlikely to happen. Nicholas II was much hated in Russia--the whole tsar line, in fact--and the Russian WWI disaster was the last drop. The Russo-Japanese war devastated the Russian military, especially the navy, making the tsar one of the most unpopular rulers in Russian history.

Perhaps not getting involved in another disastrous war would've saved Nicholas long enough for his offspring to become the new tsar. If things go lucky, the new tsar may hear the social outcry and change things for the better. If not, some kind of new revolution might begin anyways. If its not communism, then some less-extreme branch of it or even a democratic movement. If there is no WWI issue, Lenin--who is exiled in Switzerland--might not return and his communist movement might not happen at all

This would perhaps result in your run-off-the-mill, regular republic: The Russian Republic.

[lordroel]

Apr 1, 2018 0:18:33 GMT jasonsnow said:

Well, there is a pretty big chance fascism would've not risen. The ancient notions of colonialism, imperialism and monarchic rule would've lasted much longer, possibly offsetting several major discoveries and ideas that built modern society. Communism is also kind of unlikely to happen. Nicholas II was much hated in Russia--the whole tsar line, in fact--and the Russian WWI disaster was the last drop. The Russo-Japanese war devastated the Russian military, especially the navy, making the tsar one of the most unpopular rulers in Russian history.

Perhaps not getting involved in another disastrous war would've saved Nicholas long enough for his offspring to become the new tsar. If things go lucky, the new tsar may hear the social outcry and change things for the better. If not, some kind of new revolution might begin anyways. If its not communism, then some less-extreme branch of it or even a democratic movement. If there is no WWI issue, Lenin--who is exiled in Switzerland--might not return and his communist movement might not happen at all

This would perhaps result in your run-off-the-mill, regular republic: The Russian Republic.

So no Nazis, no communist, all thanks to a sandwich.

[stevep]

Apr 1, 2018 8:57:22 GMT lordroel said:

Apr 1, 2018 0:18:33 GMT jasonsnow said:

Well, there is a pretty big chance fascism would've not risen. The ancient notions of colonialism, imperialism and monarchic rule would've lasted much longer, possibly offsetting several major discoveries and ideas that built modern society. Communism is also kind of unlikely to happen. Nicholas II was much hated in Russia--the whole tsar line, in fact--and the Russian WWI disaster was the last drop. The Russo-Japanese war devastated the Russian military, especially the navy, making the tsar one of the most unpopular rulers in Russian history.

Perhaps not getting involved in another disastrous war would've saved Nicholas long enough for his offspring to become the new tsar. If things go lucky, the new tsar may hear the social outcry and change things for the better. If not, some kind of new revolution might begin anyways. If its not communism, then some less-extreme branch of it or even a democratic movement. If there is no WWI issue, Lenin--who is exiled in Switzerland--might not return and his communist movement might not happen at all

This would perhaps result in your run-off-the-mill, regular republic: The Russian Republic.

So no Nazis, no communist, all thanks to a sandwich.

  Not certain there is no WWI but at least a decent chance and if so fascism could well never occur.  Communism was already about as an idea so its likely to come to power somewhere but it could be a less extreme form and/or in a far less important state.  If so it might blunder on until either it reforms or collapses under its own weight.  Its likely to become just another failed ideology unless someone say invades to crush it, giving it a martyr status.

  Society is likely to be socially a bit more conservative in the short term but then there was a lot of pressure for reform, political, social and otherwise and the shock of WWI, while it discredited a lot of the older regimes also prompted a conservative reaction.  Also without the war there will still be the tension and international rivalry between the great powers so those who feeling their falling behind with be under pressure to reform.  You are likely to see at least the Ottoman and Hapsburg empires either drastically reform or largely collapse within a decade or so.  Russia and to a lesser degree Germany also have strong pressures for change opposed by established reactionary political interests so reform when it comes there could come fairly violently.

  Colonial empires will probably last longer without either/both world wars, especially as racism will be less discredited without the examples of Germany and Japan especially in WWII.  However there is likely to be another conflict sooner or later and if it involves coalitions its likely to be very long and bloody.  Hence you might see similar nasty ideas as fascism and hard line communism gaining support after such a conflict.  [Say there's a realignment against a very powerful looking Russia and a long war say in the early 1920's you might push things back a decade or so but have a not too dissimilar path, or totally different regimes and ideas emerging.]

[jasonsnow]

So we have a feudal, backwards Japan, a colonially-inferior Germany, a rural and despotic Russia (nos surprise there), an isolated, unreachable America and a France and Britain that rule supreme. On the event that a conflict does break out it would be sometime in the 20's. Any thoughts on this?

[lordroel]

Apr 1, 2018 15:09:52 GMT jasonsnow said:

So we have a feudal, backwards Japan, a colonially-inferior Germany, a rural and despotic Russia (nos surprise there), an isolated, unreachable America and a France and Britain that rule supreme. On the event that a conflict does break out it would be sometime in the 20's. Any thoughts on this?

Why is Japan feudal and backwards, they defeated the Chinese and Russians, also Germany might question your view on France and Britain that rule supreme.

[jasonsnow]

Japan during the early 20th century was NOTHING compared to today's Japan. Certainly they did won against Russia, but that was the result of terrible management rather than military superiority on the Rising Sun's part. Japan's economic boost came as a result of its interference in World War I, forging strong relations with the Allies and kickstarting an industrial and political revolution. Before that, Japan was a very traditional and conservative nation ruled by warlords, clans and social classes, with the Emperor ejecting very little authority. Japan was always very isolated and dictated by its ancient customs and traditions, so there's a chance they'll stay that way deep into the 30's. That means no big deal happens in Korea or Manchuria, and there is no place for an ideological revolution in Southeast Asia. Having in consideration all this, there's a chance China will remain a republic following the Qing Dynasty's downfall, and France might hold on to Indochina for longer, seeing no communist revolution erupts. Korea might remain a kingdom, but sooner or later it will need to change its ancient ways and convert into either a constitutional, unified monarchy or simply a republic. This means no North Korea and no Korea-Japan hate, which is present even to this day.

[stevep]

Apr 1, 2018 17:43:05 GMT jasonsnow said:

Japan during the early 20th century was NOTHING compared to today's Japan. Certainly they did won against Russia, but that was the result of terrible management rather than military superiority on the Rising Sun's part. Japan's economic boost came as a result of its interference in World War I, forging strong relations with the Allies and kickstarting an industrial and political revolution. Before that, Japan was a very traditional and conservative nation ruled by warlords, clans and social classes, with the Emperor ejecting very little authority. Japan was always very isolated and dictated by its ancient customs and traditions, so there's a chance they'll stay that way deep into the 30's. That means no big deal happens in Korea or Manchuria, and there is no place for an ideological revolution in Southeast Asia. Having in consideration all this, there's a chance China will remain a republic following the Qing Dynasty's downfall, and France might hold on to Indochina for longer, seeing no communist revolution erupts. Korea might remain a kingdom, but sooner or later it will need to change its ancient ways and convert into either a constitutional, unified monarchy or simply a republic. This means no North Korea and no Korea-Japan hate, which is present even to this day.

  No, that was before the Meiji Restoration.  Japan had a strong conservative culture even after that, which lead to the militaristic Japan of the 1930's and 40's but it also modernised technologically to a sizeable degree and also in some ways socially and politically.  Its industrialisation and cultural development was to some degree shallower than much of western Europe but it was definitely a significant power.

[mostlyharmless]

Coming back to the question of what would have happened in 1914, there was a strong belief that there would be a Third Balkan War between Greece and Turkey. This is discussed in a Youtube video by Sean McMeekin around 16 minutes from the start. However, it wasn't expected that this would lead to a general war (Ferguson showed that stock markets did not expect war even during the July Crisis) and the pattern of alliances was different with Russia possibly attacking Turkey but Britain building battleships for Turkey (note Germany was building a battlecruiser for Greece).

More generally, although there were influential voices in Germany calling for war before the alliance against them grew too strong, everyone agreed that Germany had no hope without Austro-Hungary and Austro-Hungary did not want a war with Russia. Indeed, whilst Franz Ferdinand was alive, it was unlikely that Austro-Hungary would become involved in a war with anyone. Further, the Kaiser had always insisted on peace during crises before 1914. He probably only backed Austro-Hungary in 1914 because he had been Franz Ferdinand's friend and felt his honour was involved.