What If: US-Cuban War in the late 1970s

[James G]

Whilst researching some time ago for my TL (this thread has nothing to do with that), I was reading about Henry Kissinger's extremely hostile views towards Cuban activity in the 70s where Cuba was extending military activity across in Africa. Kissinger was SecState under Ford before the latter lost the election to Carter.

Let's say that Ford wins and Kissinger stays at the State Department. Cuba keeps sending men to fight in Africa. Kissinger wanted to bomb Cuban airports and harbours and convinces Ford to do so. Intelligence say that the targeted strikes won't hit any Soviet forces: they provided the transport aircraft and ships.

In go the bombs from F-4s and A-6s, no B-52s. The US Navy attacks with naval gunfire too. Mission: Success. No Soviets are killed and Cuban ability to supply their forces in Africa is brought to an end, at least a temporary one. What happens now? In the US? In Cuba? With the Soviets?
WW3 with nukes destroying New York and Moscow isn't a given, surely not. Can the Cubans hit back: Guantanamo Bay? Will the Soviets step in a negotiate a ceasefire? If Brezhnev does nothing - this is at the height of détente - does Ford go all the way and sent the 82nd Airborne & US Marines all the way to Havana?

[lordroel]

Mar 31, 2018 21:11:00 GMT James G said:

Whilst researching some time ago for my TL (this thread has nothing to do with that), I was reading about Henry Kissinger's extremely hostile views towards Cuban activity in the 70s where Cuba was extending military activity across in Africa. Kissinger was SecState under Ford before the latter lost the election to Carter.

Let's say that Ford wins and Kissinger stays at the State Department. Cuba keeps sending men to fight in Africa. Kissinger wanted to bomb Cuban airports and harbours and convinces Ford to do so. Intelligence say that the targeted strikes won't hit any Soviet forces: they provided the transport aircraft and ships.

In go the bombs from F-4s and A-6s, no B-52s. The US Navy attacks with naval gunfire too. Mission: Success. No Soviets are killed and Cuban ability to supply their forces in Africa is brought to an end, at least a temporary one. What happens now? In the US? In Cuba? With the Soviets?
WW3 with nukes destroying New York and Moscow isn't a given, surely not. Can the Cubans hit back: Guantanamo Bay? Will the Soviets step in a negotiate a ceasefire? If Brezhnev does nothing - this is at the height of détente - does Ford go all the way and sent the 82nd Airborne & US Marines all the way to Havana?

What about this: What if: Operation Pico (1977) Cuba-Dominican Republic War, could this lead to a US-Cuban War because i doubt the United States would not back Dominican Republic in their war against Cuba.

Sorry if i went of thread.

[James G]

That's an excellent POD!
Kissinger was really serious on the matter and this would be right after Ford's second term starts.
The US will defend democracy (cough) in the Dominican Republic!

[lordroel]

Mar 31, 2018 21:30:59 GMT James G said:

That's an excellent POD!
Kissinger was really serious on the matter and this would be right after Ford's second term starts.
The US will defend democracy (cough) in the Dominican Republic!

Keep thread ore move it to the other thread.

[James G]

Leave them separate, I think.

[lordroel]

Mar 31, 2018 21:39:14 GMT James G said:

Leave them separate, I think.

Okay, so will the Soviet get involved in this, i think they would.

[James G]

Mar 31, 2018 21:42:22 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 31, 2018 21:39:14 GMT James G said:

Leave them separate, I think.

Okay, so will the Soviet get involved in this, i think they would.

Maybe. It depends on a lot of things.
JFK and Khrushchev supposedly struck a deal on no invasion of Cuba but this would only be bomb runs and naval attacks.
Is WW3 worth it just for that? 

[lordroel]

Mar 31, 2018 21:50:35 GMT James G said:

Mar 31, 2018 21:42:22 GMT lordroel said:

Okay, so will the Soviet get involved in this, i think they would.

Maybe. It depends on a lot of things.
JFK and Khrushchev supposedly struck a deal on no invasion of Cuba but this would only be bomb runs and naval attacks.
Is WW3 worth it just for that? 

But what who makes sure it stops at only bombing runs and naval attacks.

[James G]

Mar 31, 2018 21:51:46 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 31, 2018 21:50:35 GMT James G said:

Maybe. It depends on a lot of things.
JFK and Khrushchev supposedly struck a deal on no invasion of Cuba but this would only be bomb runs and naval attacks.
Is WW3 worth it just for that? 

But what who makes sure it stops at only bombing runs and naval attacks.

That is the issue. The Cuban response would HAVE to be an assault into Guantanamo Bay. War expansion comes from that: tit for tat.

[lordroel]

Mar 31, 2018 22:02:51 GMT James G said:

Mar 31, 2018 21:51:46 GMT lordroel said:

But what who makes sure it stops at only bombing runs and naval attacks.

That is the issue. The Cuban response would HAVE to be an assault into Guantanamo Bay. War expansion comes from that: tit for tat.

And what if one of the Americans air ore naval stacks kills a Soviet we know are on Cuba.

[raunchel]

The Cubans have to act, they can't let tgeir infrastructure be destroyed just like that. They would also be a fairly hard nut to crack compared to what the USA usually attacked,so they would certainly end up with a bloody nose, even if they destroy the Cubans. It would also be hard to sell to the public again, especially in the light of Vietnam and if there isn't a very strong reason to attack.

[lordroel]

Mar 31, 2018 22:02:51 GMT James G said:

Mar 31, 2018 21:51:46 GMT lordroel said:

But what who makes sure it stops at only bombing runs and naval attacks.

That is the issue. The Cuban response would HAVE to be an assault into Guantanamo Bay. War expansion comes from that: tit for tat.

Yes and the Americans will respond with launching a full scale amphibious invasion and Airbone para drop, in the mean time if Soviets where killed and wounded by the American air and naval attacks will most likely launch a attack against West Berlin.

[stevep]

I wonder if in the aftermath of Vietnam and the anti-military feeling that left in the US that Ford would let Kissinger have his way. If it came actually dropping bombs on Cuba itself I could see it escalating as the Soviets would be as unhappy as the Cubans about the attacks and tension is likely to build up considerably. After all its only a couple of years before they go into Afghanistan, actually overthrowing a 'friendly' if unstable regime and a couple of years later was thinking about armed intervention in Poland - although admittedly that came more from the weakness of the Polish communists in the face of serious internal opposition.

True Cuba was directly aiding communist forces in Africa but this was against S African intervention and given how widely reviled the latter were that's not really a viable case politically for the US.

Things could get very nasty very quickly here. I could see Cuba acting against Guantanamo, possibly bombardment by artillery rather than a full scale attack and Ford getting a very angry hot phone call from Moscow. The Soviets may not do anything in Europe other than possibly some 'exercises' as I suspect most if not all Europeans, including very likely Britain, would be less than supportive of the US actions so it would be in the Soviet's interest to keep things reasonably quiet there.

As such I think this is a fairly low probability event but it could get nasty pretty quickly.


In terms' of Lordroel's mention of Operation Pico this looks more likely as it would only need a slight delay in the news of the release of the Cuba ship or the Dominican's possibly standing firm, especially if say they had asked the US for support and been promised it. If Castro actually launched a bombing attack, especially given the probable civilian casualties I can see a lot of anger in the region against Cuba and a strong American reaction. On the other hand, since the Cubans have taken a pretty rash action and also sought to exclude the Soviets from the operation I could see them getting little support, at least initially from the Soviets. I can see them opposing serious attempts at regime change but if the US launches some pretty tough retaliatory bomb attacks on military targets I could also see Moscow telling Castro to not escalate it further.

In part this depends on what's actually happened with the Cuban boat. If it has encroached into Dominican waters the latter has a case for stopping it. Also they can actually investigate what it was up to, like does it have a suspicious amount of intelligence equipment on board? Provided their not ill-treating the crew Cuba doesn't really have a leg to stand on in complaining, let along the initial dangerous overflights and actual bombing attacks.

[James G]

That is why I thought the Dominican POD was such an excellent idea: something that could get out of hand and from there a bigger incident occurs.
The idea that by Cuba acting independently against Moscow's wishes, even just a bombardment of GB rather than a full-on infantry assault, is appealing too.
The Soviets might stay out if there is no invasion of Cuba. It could all lead to a conflict getting bigger too if Washington feels like Moscow won't intervene once the Rubicon has been crossed.

[lordroel]

Apr 1, 2018 11:32:15 GMT James G said:

That is why I thought the Dominican POD was such an excellent idea: something that could get out of hand and from there a bigger incident occurs.
The idea that by Cuba acting independently against Moscow's wishes, even just a bombardment of GB rather than a full-on infantry assault, is appealing too.
The Soviets might stay out if there is no invasion of Cuba. It could all lead to a conflict getting bigger too if Washington feels like Moscow won't intervene once the Rubicon has been crossed.

I doubt the Soviets are going to sit back and watch as Cuba is being attacked, its not good for their reputation, it makes them look weak in the eyes of their allies and puppets.