Romania attacks Bulgaria in 1916

[futurist]

I'm not sure if I have asked this question here before, but anyway, here goes:

What if Romania would have attacked Bulgaria instead of attacking Austria-Hungary in 1916?

Basically, the logic behind this would be that if Bulgaria is knocked out of WWI, the Central Powers would be split (literally--there'd be no land route between Germany/Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire) and thus the Entente would be able to first take out the Ottoman Empire and then to take out Germany and Austria-Hungary. If the Entente wins the war, Romania would obviously get Transylvania and at least southern Bukovina. Thus, there is no need for Romania to immediately attack Austria-Hungary after entering WWI in 1916.

Anyway, would this work? Would Romania--possibly together with Russia--be able to knock Bulgaria out of World War I in 1916 in this TL?

[stevep]

Apr 21, 2018 19:21:58 GMT futurist said:

I'm not sure if I have asked this question here before, but anyway, here goes:

What if Romania would have attacked Bulgaria instead of attacking Austria-Hungary in 1916?

Basically, the logic behind this would be that if Bulgaria is knocked out of WWI, the Central Powers would be split (literally--there'd be no land route between Germany/Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire) and thus the Entente would be able to first take out the Ottoman Empire and then to take out Germany and Austria-Hungary. If the Entente wins the war, Romania would obviously get Transylvania and at least southern Bukovina. Thus, there is no need for Romania to immediately attack Austria-Hungary after entering WWI in 1916.

Anyway, would this work? Would Romania--possibly together with Russia--be able to knock Bulgaria out of World War I in 1916 in this TL?

  Romania would be attacked from the north so would have even greater difficulty defending against the Germans, unless they possibly joined the war a little later.  Think I read once that if they had held on a little longer until snow closed the passes through the Carpathians they would have been largely safe until the spring. 

  Alternatively the Germans had a land link to Bulgaria as Serbia was occupied the previous year so CP forces could move south to support them directly.  Plus while they wouldn't be trusted very much by the Bulgarians the Turks could probably have sent some forces north as well to help. 

  If they did manage to overrun the Bulgarians and defend the north possibly they could get Russian help for a push into E Thrace to threaten Constantinople, which might have forces the Turks out of the war but whether they could do this before the Germans drove into Romania I don't know.  It could seriously strain the Germans and they would have less to fight on the western front and possibly against the Russians in the north?

[futurist]

Apr 21, 2018 19:30:43 GMT stevep said:

Apr 21, 2018 19:21:58 GMT futurist said:

I'm not sure if I have asked this question here before, but anyway, here goes:

What if Romania would have attacked Bulgaria instead of attacking Austria-Hungary in 1916?

Basically, the logic behind this would be that if Bulgaria is knocked out of WWI, the Central Powers would be split (literally--there'd be no land route between Germany/Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire) and thus the Entente would be able to first take out the Ottoman Empire and then to take out Germany and Austria-Hungary. If the Entente wins the war, Romania would obviously get Transylvania and at least southern Bukovina. Thus, there is no need for Romania to immediately attack Austria-Hungary after entering WWI in 1916.

Anyway, would this work? Would Romania--possibly together with Russia--be able to knock Bulgaria out of World War I in 1916 in this TL?

  Romania would be attacked from the north so would have even greater difficulty defending against the Germans, unless they possibly joined the war a little later.  Think I read once that if they had held on a little longer until snow closed the passes through the Carpathians they would have been largely safe until the spring. 

  Alternatively the Germans had a land link to Bulgaria as Serbia was occupied the previous year so CP forces could move south to support them directly.  Plus while they wouldn't be trusted very much by the Bulgarians the Turks could probably have sent some forces north as well to help. 

  If they did manage to overrun the Bulgarians and defend the north possibly they could get Russian help for a push into E Thrace to threaten Constantinople, which might have forces the Turks out of the war but whether they could do this before the Germans drove into Romania I don't know.  It could seriously strain the Germans and they would have less to fight on the western front and possibly against the Russians in the north?

So, such a move on Romania's part should not be viewed as a game-changer in itself but should be viewed as one move in the grand scheme of things, correct? Specifically, perhaps the strain that the Germans endure dealing with this Romanian attack allows the Entente to make some gains in northern France, Poland/Belarus, and/or the Baltics, correct?

[stevep]

Apr 21, 2018 19:35:16 GMT futurist said:

Apr 21, 2018 19:30:43 GMT stevep said:

  Romania would be attacked from the north so would have even greater difficulty defending against the Germans, unless they possibly joined the war a little later.  Think I read once that if they had held on a little longer until snow closed the passes through the Carpathians they would have been largely safe until the spring. 

  Alternatively the Germans had a land link to Bulgaria as Serbia was occupied the previous year so CP forces could move south to support them directly.  Plus while they wouldn't be trusted very much by the Bulgarians the Turks could probably have sent some forces north as well to help. 

  If they did manage to overrun the Bulgarians and defend the north possibly they could get Russian help for a push into E Thrace to threaten Constantinople, which might have forces the Turks out of the war but whether they could do this before the Germans drove into Romania I don't know.  It could seriously strain the Germans and they would have less to fight on the western front and possibly against the Russians in the north?

So, such a move on Romania's part should not be viewed as a game-changer in itself but should be viewed as one move in the grand scheme of things, correct? Specifically, perhaps the strain that the Germans endure dealing with this Romanian attack allows the Entente to make some gains in northern France, Poland/Belarus, and/or the Baltics, correct?

  Quite possibly, presuming that the Romanians time it right so they don't simply get stomped by Germany as OTL.  Which further complicated matters for Russia as it increased the length of the east front by about a third. 

  Bulgaria isn't in itself important enough to make much difference.  However if it lead to an attack on E Thrace and the clearing of the straits it might be very important.  [Albeit initially more for the moral boost and possibly avoiding a ruinous attack on the eastern front by Russia keeping the latter on an even keel until the war is pretty much won.

  The other possibly factor with a successful overrunning of Bulgaria is that the western powers have their forces in the Salonika enclave which might come into play here and also if it triggered full Greek intervention, which would add additional forces to the allies in the region. 

  At best if knocking out Bulgaria then puts Turkey into such difficulties they have to come to terms it might start a cascade.  Karl had taken over Austria by about this time and was looking for a way out of the war before the empire collapsed.  He's even more likely to jump at this in such a situation, with the threat of a new Serbian front as well as in Transylvania and possibly either Berlin agrees to a negotiated peace, which would mean some concessions on their part, or if they decide to fight on Vienna makes a separate peace.

  However this assumes that a lot of things go right for the allies.  Not just timing the attack south for when its too late for the Germans to strike through the Carpathians but simply Romania taking out Bulgaria on its own pretty much.  That could be a fairly tough ask to do quickly. 

  It could however go pear shaped as well.  If Romania pulls off a successful attack on Bulgaria and Germany has to plan to attack Romania in the following spring it could force them more onto the defensive elsewhere and as the disastrous Nivelle offensive and its parallel Russian counter-attack showed the allies still had serious problems attacking prepared defenses.  To be fair to the French they had shown better tactics towards the tail end of Verdun and quickly adjusted to a more measured doctrine again but the Nivelle attack nearly broke the French army.  Similarly while better tactics were available what Haig did during the Passchendale offensive markedly increased British losses.  Get the allies too over-confident in early 1917 and things could go even worse.  Then coupled with the rapid overrunning of Romania and collapse of the monarchy in Russia and possibly worse losses in the west things might come apart.