Rethinking the “Lessons” of the First World War

[spanishspy]

Lines up with what I learned in International Security.

[stevep]

Jun 3, 2018 21:46:38 GMT spanishspy said:

Lines up with what I learned in International Security.

  Would agree it was a serious error by both Vienna and Berlin, although how the latter thought that a sudden invasion of France wouldn't cause massive outrage I don't know?  Especially since the German plans were not as secret as they liked to think.   [The French knew an attack was coming but expected that the main weight would be on the Franco-German border rather than further north through Belgium, where they only expected a fairly light attack to occupy positions and possibly draw French forces north away from the expected main battle zone.  Plus they had their own, stupid plan XVII for attacks against the German fortifications in Alsace-Lorraine.]

  I would also question one point about Franz-Ferdinand's marriage.  It was very much a love one, with his wife being treated badly by his own father and others, which tragically was one reason why they were visiting Bosnia, where she could get the status and respect as his wife.  However that was because she was of relatively low social/class status, not that she wasn't an Hapsburg as that would suggest a dangerously high degree of intra-marriage, if not verging on incest.  [The former was a problem for the Hapsburg's in the 16th and 17th C especially the Spanish branch were intra-marriage, between branches of the family and also the closely related Aviz, which caused both some serious problems in that period].

[raunchel]

I'm not much of an expert, but the points are sensible enough. The idea of them just being stupid never made that much sense. Sure, people are stupid but I don't think that at other times, large numbers will have been wiser.

And besides, there is nothing like a fear of losing face to lead to all kinds of unpleasantries.

[stevep]

Jun 5, 2018 7:00:32 GMT raunchel said:

I'm not much of an expert, but the points are sensible enough. The idea of them just being stupid never made that much sense. Sure, people are stupid but I don't think that at other times, large numbers will have been wiser.

And besides, there is nothing like a fear of losing face to lead to all kinds of unpleasantries.

  There were definitely cases of people being stupid.  The French plan, of attacking fortified positions and relying on the elan of their troops to bring them victory caused them appalling losses.  I think in those first ~3 months of the war they suffered something like 30% of their losses during the entire conflict.  For the Germans, while their attack into Belgium caused them a diplomatic disaster and largely ignored the logistical problems at least when they went up against modern fortifications such as Liege they had powerful seige artillery.  Also just about everybody had the delusion that they would win quick victories and the will of their opponents would quickly collapse.  Which was never likely in what quickly became a massive coalition war.  There were a few people who expected a very long and bloody war but most were largely ignored.  In some cases

  Definitely losing face was a factor as well, probably for the Austrians especially.  While Emperor Franz Joseph had pretty poor relations with his son the fact that the latter had been assassinated meant some actions were needed, especially since the empire was seem as a weak and faltering power and FJ was also aware of his own age and fading powers and desperate to leave a good legacy for his empire.

[raunchel]

Jun 5, 2018 10:54:39 GMT stevep said:

Jun 5, 2018 7:00:32 GMT raunchel said:

I'm not much of an expert, but the points are sensible enough. The idea of them just being stupid never made that much sense. Sure, people are stupid but I don't think that at other times, large numbers will have been wiser.

And besides, there is nothing like a fear of losing face to lead to all kinds of unpleasantries.

  There were definitely cases of people being stupid.  The French plan, of attacking fortified positions and relying on the elan of their troops to bring them victory caused them appalling losses.  I think in those first ~3 months of the war they suffered something like 30% of their losses during the entire conflict.  For the Germans, while their attack into Belgium caused them a diplomatic disaster and largely ignored the logistical problems at least when they went up against modern fortifications such as Liege they had powerful seige artillery.  Also just about everybody had the delusion that they would win quick victories and the will of their opponents would quickly collapse.  Which was never likely in what quickly became a massive coalition war.  There were a few people who expected a very long and bloody war but most were largely ignored.  In some cases

  Definitely losing face was a factor as well, probably for the Austrians especially.  While Emperor Franz Joseph had pretty poor relations with his son the fact that the latter had been assassinated meant some actions were needed, especially since the empire was seem as a weak and faltering power and FJ was also aware of his own age and fading powers and desperate to leave a good legacy for his empire.

Wasn't FJ's son Rudolf, who had been dead for a while? FF was his nephew if I'm not mistaken. But indeed, Austria had to do something because getting someone that important assassinated by foreign actors is seriously bad. The problem was that the Russians couldn't throw Serbia under the bus without a loss of face (and internal issues). At least, that's how I see it.

[stevep]

Jun 6, 2018 19:44:29 GMT raunchel said:

Jun 5, 2018 10:54:39 GMT stevep said:

  There were definitely cases of people being stupid.  The French plan, of attacking fortified positions and relying on the elan of their troops to bring them victory caused them appalling losses.  I think in those first ~3 months of the war they suffered something like 30% of their losses during the entire conflict.  For the Germans, while their attack into Belgium caused them a diplomatic disaster and largely ignored the logistical problems at least when they went up against modern fortifications such as Liege they had powerful seige artillery.  Also just about everybody had the delusion that they would win quick victories and the will of their opponents would quickly collapse.  Which was never likely in what quickly became a massive coalition war.  There were a few people who expected a very long and bloody war but most were largely ignored.  In some cases

  Definitely losing face was a factor as well, probably for the Austrians especially.  While Emperor Franz Joseph had pretty poor relations with his son the fact that the latter had been assassinated meant some actions were needed, especially since the empire was seem as a weak and faltering power and FJ was also aware of his own age and fading powers and desperate to leave a good legacy for his empire.

Wasn't FJ's son Rudolf, who had been dead for a while? FF was his nephew if I'm not mistaken. But indeed, Austria had to do something because getting someone that important assassinated by foreign actors is seriously bad. The problem was that the Russians couldn't throw Serbia under the bus without a loss of face (and internal issues). At least, that's how I see it.

  Damn!  That really smashes my street cred as an history fan.  Your totally correct.  Should have thought to check my memory if not my text books [or Wiki]

  As you say, Austria has to do something and wanted to act strongly towards Serbia but after the mess of the 2nd Balkan war it was Russia's only real ally in the region so the latter didn't feel it could leave them unsupported if they were attacked.