Hitler invades the Baltic countries instead of Czechia in March 1939

[futurist]

What if Adolf Hitler would have occupied the Baltic countries instead of occupying Czechia in March 1939?

For the record, the logic behind this would be that the Baltic countries would be a more logical Lebensraum destination than Czechia due to their lower population density.

[stevep]

Jul 1, 2018 0:04:51 GMT futurist said:

What if Adolf Hitler would have occupied the Baltic countries instead of occupying Czechia in March 1939?

For the record, the logic behind this would be that the Baltic countries would be a more logical Lebensraum destination than Czechia due to their lower population density.

  This probably means war with the SU, which neither side is really ready for yet.  Your got a power that has been very, very vocal about its hatred of both communism and Slavs in general and about its desire and 'right' to expand eastwards at the expense of the said Slavs seeking to seize three states bordering the Soviet Union, establishing a common border with it and getting very close to Leningrad, the union's 2nd city.  I can't see this being seen as anything but an extremely threatening move.

  Since there are few Germans in those countries its also going to be seen as an aggressive move by the western powers.  Not as much a breach of the Munich Agreement as the OTL occupation of the rump Czech republic but definitely going to increase mistrust and prompt further rearmament in Britain and France.

[futurist]

Jul 1, 2018 8:52:38 GMT stevep said:

Jul 1, 2018 0:04:51 GMT futurist said:

What if Adolf Hitler would have occupied the Baltic countries instead of occupying Czechia in March 1939?

For the record, the logic behind this would be that the Baltic countries would be a more logical Lebensraum destination than Czechia due to their lower population density.

  This probably means war with the SU, which neither side is really ready for yet.  Your got a power that has been very, very vocal about its hatred of both communism and Slavs in general and about its desire and 'right' to expand eastwards at the expense of the said Slavs seeking to seize three states bordering the Soviet Union, establishing a common border with it and getting very close to Leningrad, the union's 2nd city.  I can't see this being seen as anything but an extremely threatening move.

  Since there are few Germans in those countries its also going to be seen as an aggressive move by the western powers.  Not as much a breach of the Munich Agreement as the OTL occupation of the rump Czech republic but definitely going to increase mistrust and prompt further rearmament in Britain and France.

Having the Soviets go to war over this would be risky if they don't have the support of Britain and France, though. After all, with the Soviet military recently being purged, there was a risk that Hitler could conquer the entire European part of the Soviet Union if the Soviet Union would have declared war on him in response to his invasion of the Baltic countries. Thus, I think that it would have been more likely that the Soviet Union doesn't intervene if Britain and France are unwilling to do so and that instead the Soviet Union, Britain, and France begin working on a mutual defense alliance right after Nazi Germany occupies the Baltic countries.

Also, I wonder if Hitler is going to try getting neighboring countries--such as the Soviet Union, Hungary, and Romania--to participate in a population exchange. After all, Hitler has to get ethnic Germans from somewhere if he wants to settle the Baltic countries and there might be few volunteers for this in Germany proper. Plus, Nazi Germany was foolishly focusing on rural settlement in its plans for Lebensraum instead of focusing more on urban settlement like it should have done considering that Germany was already a pretty industrialized and urbanized country even back then.

In addition to this, I wonder if Hitler could occupy the Baltic countries and then dismember Czechoslovakia right afterwards. Or would that have been too much for Britain and France to swallow--thus triggering an Anglo-French declaration of war on Nazi Germany?

[stevep]

Jul 1, 2018 18:34:30 GMT futurist said:

Jul 1, 2018 8:52:38 GMT stevep said:

  This probably means war with the SU, which neither side is really ready for yet.  Your got a power that has been very, very vocal about its hatred of both communism and Slavs in general and about its desire and 'right' to expand eastwards at the expense of the said Slavs seeking to seize three states bordering the Soviet Union, establishing a common border with it and getting very close to Leningrad, the union's 2nd city.  I can't see this being seen as anything but an extremely threatening move.

  Since there are few Germans in those countries its also going to be seen as an aggressive move by the western powers.  Not as much a breach of the Munich Agreement as the OTL occupation of the rump Czech republic but definitely going to increase mistrust and prompt further rearmament in Britain and France.

Having the Soviets go to war over this would be risky if they don't have the support of Britain and France, though. After all, with the Soviet military recently being purged, there was a risk that Hitler could conquer the entire European part of the Soviet Union if the Soviet Union would have declared war on him in response to his invasion of the Baltic countries. Thus, I think that it would have been more likely that the Soviet Union doesn't intervene if Britain and France are unwilling to do so and that instead the Soviet Union, Britain, and France begin working on a mutual defense alliance right after Nazi Germany occupies the Baltic countries.

Also, I wonder if Hitler is going to try getting neighboring countries--such as the Soviet Union, Hungary, and Romania--to participate in a population exchange. After all, Hitler has to get ethnic Germans from somewhere if he wants to settle the Baltic countries and there might be few volunteers for this in Germany proper. Plus, Nazi Germany was foolishly focusing on rural settlement in its plans for Lebensraum instead of focusing more on urban settlement like it should have done considering that Germany was already a pretty industrialized and urbanized country even back then.

In addition to this, I wonder if Hitler could occupy the Baltic countries and then dismember Czechoslovakia right afterwards. Or would that have been too much for Britain and France to swallow--thus triggering an Anglo-French declaration of war on Nazi Germany?

  The thing is such an occupation, along a good stretch of the Soviet western border is going to be a red flag to Stalin.  He also doesn't know how bad the Red Army is at the moment so he could see some nasty set-backs but the Germans aren't really prepared for a major war yet in many ways.  Also without taking over the rump Czech state they won't have its equipment while with France undefeated and Poland no doubt increasingly worried they will need to watch those borders as well.

  If Germany suddenly attacks the Baltic states Stalin won't bother talking with the western powers, at least before the event, as there simply isn't the time.  He might start some talks, although given his paranoia and the Munich Agreement, to which the Soviets weren't invited he's very likely to suspect there was some agreement that Germany would turn its attention eastwards and the western democracies have guaranteed its western borders.

  Since an invasion of the Baltics is I believe pretty certain to lead to an immediate war with the Soviets the Germans might find they don't have the forces to do both.  Especially since once Stalin is at war the Czechs are likely to fight because they know their no longer alone.  They might still go down, especially since their lost their defensive lines, but its likely that the weakened German forces attacking them will take substantial losses and they won't be gaining the Czech military forces and industry largely untouched.

  An occupation of the Czech republic and also of the Baltics is likely to deeply upset the western powers, and probably many neutrals.  Hitler has shown his word is worthless and fatally wounded appeasement.  At the very least the western powers are going to expect war in the near future and be tooling up rapidly.  If the Czechs fight it could well prompt the allies to declare war and at this point with fighting in the Baltic states and Bohemia Germany is going to be bloody thinnly stretched, even if the allies are as inactive as in the OTL Phoney War.  You are likely to see a lot of neutrals worried as well and Belgium and Poland might support a war against Germany under those circumstances.  Poland would mean a much longer front with a lot of Poles to fight once their moblised and Belgium would offer the option of turning what defensive positions the Germans have in the west.

[futurist]

Jul 1, 2018 19:05:04 GMT stevep said:

Jul 1, 2018 18:34:30 GMT futurist said:

Having the Soviets go to war over this would be risky if they don't have the support of Britain and France, though. After all, with the Soviet military recently being purged, there was a risk that Hitler could conquer the entire European part of the Soviet Union if the Soviet Union would have declared war on him in response to his invasion of the Baltic countries. Thus, I think that it would have been more likely that the Soviet Union doesn't intervene if Britain and France are unwilling to do so and that instead the Soviet Union, Britain, and France begin working on a mutual defense alliance right after Nazi Germany occupies the Baltic countries.

Also, I wonder if Hitler is going to try getting neighboring countries--such as the Soviet Union, Hungary, and Romania--to participate in a population exchange. After all, Hitler has to get ethnic Germans from somewhere if he wants to settle the Baltic countries and there might be few volunteers for this in Germany proper. Plus, Nazi Germany was foolishly focusing on rural settlement in its plans for Lebensraum instead of focusing more on urban settlement like it should have done considering that Germany was already a pretty industrialized and urbanized country even back then.

In addition to this, I wonder if Hitler could occupy the Baltic countries and then dismember Czechoslovakia right afterwards. Or would that have been too much for Britain and France to swallow--thus triggering an Anglo-French declaration of war on Nazi Germany?

  1. The thing is such an occupation, along a good stretch of the Soviet western border is going to be a red flag to Stalin.  He also doesn't know how bad the Red Army is at the moment so he could see some nasty set-backs but the Germans aren't really prepared for a major war yet in many ways.  Also without taking over the rump Czech state they won't have its equipment while with France undefeated and Poland no doubt increasingly worried they will need to watch those borders as well.

  2. If Germany suddenly attacks the Baltic states Stalin won't bother talking with the western powers, at least before the event, as there simply isn't the time.  He might start some talks, although given his paranoia and the Munich Agreement, to which the Soviets weren't invited he's very likely to suspect there was some agreement that Germany would turn its attention eastwards and the western democracies have guaranteed its western borders.

  3. Since an invasion of the Baltics is I believe pretty certain to lead to an immediate war with the Soviets the Germans might find they don't have the forces to do both.  Especially since once Stalin is at war the Czechs are likely to fight because they know their no longer alone.  They might still go down, especially since their lost their defensive lines, but its likely that the weakened German forces attacking them will take substantial losses and they won't be gaining the Czech military forces and industry largely untouched.

  4. An occupation of the Czech republic and also of the Baltics is likely to deeply upset the western powers, and probably many neutrals.  Hitler has shown his word is worthless and fatally wounded appeasement.  At the very least the western powers are going to expect war in the near future and be tooling up rapidly.  If the Czechs fight it could well prompt the allies to declare war and at this point with fighting in the Baltic states and Bohemia Germany is going to be bloody thinnly stretched, even if the allies are as inactive as in the OTL Phoney War.  You are likely to see a lot of neutrals worried as well and Belgium and Poland might support a war against Germany under those circumstances.  Poland would mean a much longer front with a lot of Poles to fight once their moblised and Belgium would offer the option of turning what defensive positions the Germans have in the west.

1. Agreed with all of this.

2. Agreed with all of this.

3. What about going after the Czechs first and then going after the Baltic countries?

4. Agreed with all of this except the Poland part. I strongly don't think that Poland is ever actually going to want to have any Soviet troops on Polish soil. Thus, I think that Poland would have likely remained neutral in this TL's World War II.

[stevep]

Oct 4, 2018 22:32:15 GMT futurist said:

Jul 1, 2018 19:05:04 GMT stevep said:

  1. The thing is such an occupation, along a good stretch of the Soviet western border is going to be a red flag to Stalin.  He also doesn't know how bad the Red Army is at the moment so he could see some nasty set-backs but the Germans aren't really prepared for a major war yet in many ways.  Also without taking over the rump Czech state they won't have its equipment while with France undefeated and Poland no doubt increasingly worried they will need to watch those borders as well.

  2. If Germany suddenly attacks the Baltic states Stalin won't bother talking with the western powers, at least before the event, as there simply isn't the time.  He might start some talks, although given his paranoia and the Munich Agreement, to which the Soviets weren't invited he's very likely to suspect there was some agreement that Germany would turn its attention eastwards and the western democracies have guaranteed its western borders.

  3. Since an invasion of the Baltics is I believe pretty certain to lead to an immediate war with the Soviets the Germans might find they don't have the forces to do both.  Especially since once Stalin is at war the Czechs are likely to fight because they know their no longer alone.  They might still go down, especially since their lost their defensive lines, but its likely that the weakened German forces attacking them will take substantial losses and they won't be gaining the Czech military forces and industry largely untouched.

  4. An occupation of the Czech republic and also of the Baltics is likely to deeply upset the western powers, and probably many neutrals.  Hitler has shown his word is worthless and fatally wounded appeasement.  At the very least the western powers are going to expect war in the near future and be tooling up rapidly.  If the Czechs fight it could well prompt the allies to declare war and at this point with fighting in the Baltic states and Bohemia Germany is going to be bloody thinnly stretched, even if the allies are as inactive as in the OTL Phoney War.  You are likely to see a lot of neutrals worried as well and Belgium and Poland might support a war against Germany under those circumstances.  Poland would mean a much longer front with a lot of Poles to fight once their moblised and Belgium would offer the option of turning what defensive positions the Germans have in the west.

1. Agreed with all of this.

2. Agreed with all of this.

3. What about going after the Czechs first and then going after the Baltic countries?

4. Agreed with all of this except the Poland part. I strongly don't think that Poland is ever actually going to want to have any Soviet troops on Polish soil. Thus, I think that Poland would have likely remained neutral in this TL's World War II.

3)  That will really alienate the western powers.  Whether they would go to war in defence of the Baltic states, I don't know although there were talks about a joint alliance with them after the Czech occupation OTL.  If the western powers do act then the Nazi state will collapse fairly quickly because they must defend their western border, even if the west is very inactive and also the installation of a blockade and loss of trade with the rest of the world will really screw them.

4)  If it meant Soviet occupation of any of their territories I would agree.  However if Poland joined an existing war in alliance with the western powers, while the Soviets are already heavily involved against the Germans in the Baltic region that would seem unlikely.  Joining such a war would gain removal of the Nazi threat and possibly gain control of say Danzig to secure their sea access.  Plus by getting a clear alliance with Britain and France it would secure their position against a future Soviet threat.

  One other point that comes to mind.  If the attack into the Baltics occurs in autumn 39 and with no Nazi-Soviet pact Finland isn't going to be threatened [at least at the moment] so no Winter war and hence the threat to Leningrad is from the south only.