Russia regathers a lot of its lost territories after the USSR's collapse

[futurist]

I really hope that I didn't make this thread here before. Anyway, though, here goes:

What if Russia would have regathered a lot of its lost territories after the collapse of the Soviet Union?

What effects would this have on present-day Russia?

Also, for the record, the scenario that I am thinking of here is having Hitler get killed in 1923. Thus, here is no World War II and no Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Soviet Union does not expand beyond its 1938 borders. In turn, what this would mean is that even if the Soviet Union eventually collapses and breaks up in this scenario, it would be easier for Russia to pick up the pieces and regather a lot of its lost territories afterwards. After all, in this scenario, heavily nationalistic western Ukraine would remain a part of Poland (and possibly eventually be granted autonomy within Poland) and would thus be unable to influence political developments in the rest of Ukraine--thus making it much easier for the pro-Russian politicians in eastern and southern Ukraine to get their way and to form a renewed union with Russia in the early 21st century.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

[James G]

I was thinking initially more than just Crimea with Belarus, eastern Ukraine, the Caucasus countries after the USSR's fall.
this particular scenario of yours through, going back to a POD in 1923, throws that all up in the air though.
Butterflies aplenty!

[spanishspy]

With a PoD like that it's nigh-impossible to discern. A USSR without a WWII may well be able to survive to TTL's 2018 - less loss of materiel and so the state that strengthen itself.

[stevep]

Aug 29, 2018 18:14:33 GMT spanishspy said:

With a PoD like that it's nigh-impossible to discern. A USSR without a WWII may well be able to survive to TTL's 2018 - less loss of materiel and so the state that strengthen itself.

  It may or it may be weaker and collapse earlier without the OTL territorial gains or the legitimacy WWII gave the Soviets.  The economy and society was so mismanaged that if it gets into a war with a major power that isn't as deranged as Nazi Germany it could fall apart fairly quickly, or possibly without exterior military intervention at some time of crisis inside the USSR.  It was the fact that the Nazi regime was so evil and bat-shit insane that gave the Soviet system some value in the eyes of many of its subjects.

  But anyway, I agree that a POD so early, without some stated assumptions as to what happens after Hitler's death you can't really say what is likely at all.

[futurist]

Aug 30, 2018 14:29:28 GMT stevep said:

Aug 29, 2018 18:14:33 GMT spanishspy said:

With a PoD like that it's nigh-impossible to discern. A USSR without a WWII may well be able to survive to TTL's 2018 - less loss of materiel and so the state that strengthen itself.

  It may or it may be weaker and collapse earlier without the OTL territorial gains or the legitimacy WWII gave the Soviets.  The economy and society was so mismanaged that if it gets into a war with a major power that isn't as deranged as Nazi Germany it could fall apart fairly quickly, or possibly without exterior military intervention at some time of crisis inside the USSR.  It was the fact that the Nazi regime was so evil and bat-shit insane that gave the Soviet system some value in the eyes of many of its subjects.

  But anyway, I agree that a POD so early, without some stated assumptions as to what happens after Hitler's death you can't really say what is likely at all.

Well, you could have a later PoD here--such as having Britain and France actually challenge Hitler over the Sudetenland in 1938. However, the PoD needs to prevent the Soviet annexation of eastern Poland. Putting a lot of Ukrainian nationalists into the Soviet Union was a bad move which significantly increased the odds of Ukraine eventually falling out of Russia's orbit.

[futurist]

Aug 28, 2018 19:23:41 GMT James G said:

I was thinking initially more than just Crimea with Belarus, eastern Ukraine, the Caucasus countries after the USSR's fall.
this particular scenario of yours through, going back to a POD in 1923, throws that all up in the air though.
Butterflies aplenty!

IMHO, you need a PoD before 1939 for this to work since you'd need to prevent the Soviet Union from annexing eastern Poland (with all of its Ukrainian nationalists). Or, alternatively, the Soviet Union can create a separate Galician SSR instead of adding it to the Ukrainian SSR, but the question would then be whether these two separate Ukrainian SSRs would unite after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Also, you could try having Putin decide in early 2014 to militarily seize all of southern and eastern Ukraine. In our TL, Putin never actually had the guts to do this, but if that changes in this TL, well ...

[TheRomanSlayer]

You may need to have a guy other than Yeltsin to succeed Gorbachev and try to keep the USSR around, albeit in its different form. Here's something that could be of interest:

"Once upon a time, there was a man who dared to defy the odds against the tyrants who locked up the great reformer. He symbolized a hopeful path for the future, and even stood on top of a tank in order to electrify the Soviet (or Russian) people into placing their hopes on democracy. Sadly, this brave man was assassinated by an unknown fiend, and in the midst of the power vacuum that erupted as a result of this man's death, one schemer arose to lay claim to the succession. This schemer proceeded with his insane genius to keep the fractured union by force, even creating situations where ethnic strife and genocides were common. The new union succeeding the old barely hung on until a silent kingmaker emerged, working behind the shadows to ensure that he would be positioned into power once the schemer falls from grace. Upon the fall of the schemer, millions have perished, nations have revived their blood feuds and instability exploded and economies were on life support. The union still stands, but unsure of how long it will live."

Although the passage above actually refers to a well done TL that tackles this very subject, but in a way that would be seen as an outcome even bleaker than OTL.

[James G]

Sept 21, 2018 2:46:44 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

You may need to have a guy other than Yeltsin to succeed Gorbachev and try to keep the USSR around, albeit in its different form. Here's something that could be of interest:

"Once upon a time, there was a man who dared to defy the odds against the tyrants who locked up the great reformer. He symbolized a hopeful path for the future, and even stood on top of a tank in order to electrify the Soviet (or Russian) people into placing their hopes on democracy. Sadly, this brave man was assassinated by an unknown fiend, and in the midst of the power vacuum that erupted as a result of this man's death, one schemer arose to lay claim to the succession. This schemer proceeded with his insane genius to keep the fractured union by force, even creating situations where ethnic strife and genocides were common. The new union succeeding the old barely hung on until a silent kingmaker emerged, working behind the shadows to ensure that he would be positioned into power once the schemer falls from grace. Upon the fall of the schemer, millions have perished, nations have revived their blood feuds and instability exploded and economies were on life support. The union still stands, but unsure of how long it will live."

Although the passage above actually refers to a well done TL that tackles this very subject, but in a way that would be seen as an outcome even bleaker than OTL.

Which story is this from?

[TheRomanSlayer]

Sept 22, 2018 16:58:45 GMT James G said:

Sept 21, 2018 2:46:44 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

You may need to have a guy other than Yeltsin to succeed Gorbachev and try to keep the USSR around, albeit in its different form. Here's something that could be of interest:

"Once upon a time, there was a man who dared to defy the odds against the tyrants who locked up the great reformer. He symbolized a hopeful path for the future, and even stood on top of a tank in order to electrify the Soviet (or Russian) people into placing their hopes on democracy. Sadly, this brave man was assassinated by an unknown fiend, and in the midst of the power vacuum that erupted as a result of this man's death, one schemer arose to lay claim to the succession. This schemer proceeded with his insane genius to keep the fractured union by force, even creating situations where ethnic strife and genocides were common. The new union succeeding the old barely hung on until a silent kingmaker emerged, working behind the shadows to ensure that he would be positioned into power once the schemer falls from grace. Upon the fall of the schemer, millions have perished, nations have revived their blood feuds and instability exploded and economies were on life support. The union still stands, but unsure of how long it will live."

Although the passage above actually refers to a well done TL that tackles this very subject, but in a way that would be seen as an outcome even bleaker than OTL.

Which story is this from?

Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire.

www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/zhirinovskys-russian-empire.245924/

[lordroel]

Sept 22, 2018 20:24:57 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Sept 22, 2018 16:58:45 GMT James G said:

Which story is this from?

Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire.

www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/zhirinovskys-russian-empire.245924/

Nice have to read that.

[TheRomanSlayer]

I also contributed to the development of the TL as well, especially with updates related to the Philippines.

[James G]

Sept 22, 2018 20:24:57 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Sept 22, 2018 16:58:45 GMT James G said:

Which story is this from?

Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire.

www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/zhirinovskys-russian-empire.245924/

I read it at the time but, with it being so big, I didn't recognise the quote.
The best bit of that story was the 'insane' Putin with his conspiracy theories talking to the BBC... who might not have been as mad as it seemed. Brilliant storytelling.