The U.S. invades North Vietnam during the Vietnam War

[futurist]

What if the U.S. would have invaded North Vietnam during the Vietnam War?

For the record, it appears likely that China would have militarily intervened in North Vietnam in such a scenario:

www.wilsoncenter.org/article/china-contributed-substantially-to-vietnam-war-victory-claims-scholar

"ZHAI: One common misperception has to do with Lyndon Johnson's handling of the war in the 1960s. Critics say that Johnson allowed his fear of China to impede his handling of the war. When he escalated the war in Vietnam, he gradually expanded the bombing from south to north as he was afraid of incurring China's wrath. Like the Chinese side, Johnson remembered the Korean War and wanted to avoid another confrontation. He remembered that during the Korean War, the U.S. had failed to heed Chinese warnings after MacArthur crossed the 38th parallel, thus triggering a clash with China.



This time, Johnson and his advisers paid close attention to the Chinese role. They were afraid that if the United States pushed too hard or attacked North Vietnam without restraint, they would have a replay of the Korean War. Johnson's critics later said that China was just bluffing, that the Chinese weren't serious about intervening. Harry Summers and other military writers criticized Johnson for allowing his fear of Chinese intervention to undermine his bombing campaign.



However, the new evidence from China suggests that Mao was seriously prepared to intervene. There was a secret agreement between Hanoi and Beijing that if the Americans launched a ground invasion of North Vietnam (at that time, the United States had restricted itself to a bombing campaign), China would send ground troops into North Vietnam and would not allow the United States to defeat Hanoi. If the Americans bombed North Vietnam, China would match the American military action by taking measures to protect North Vietnamese cities and to rebuild roads and bridges. They would also send anti-aircraft artillery units and army engineers to support North Vietnamese troops and help them deal with the air bombing pressure.



Meanwhile back in China, Mao was making preparations in anticipation of war with the United States. He relocated industries, universities, and research institutions in the coastal areas of eastern China to the mountainous areas of southwest China. He ordered his people to build anti-air shelters throughout China.



Mao himself had staked a lot on the outcome of the Vietnamese War in terms of security as well as ideology. Mao took the American escalation seriously; he interpreted it as a security threat. But he also believed that the success of North Vietnam had ideological significance. At that time Mao was criticizing the Soviet Union for not giving enough support to national liberation movements, for pursuing détente with the United States. Thus he hoped to use the Vietnam War as a way to embarrass Khrushchev -- to show him that China had closely befriended anti-imperialist movements of the Third World.



For all these reasons, Mao was really interested in Vietnam and prepared to intervene. This means that critics of Johnson were wrong. The historical record shows that Johnson was prudent in his approach to the Vietnam War -- that he was right not to adopt more drastic measures. If the suggestions made by these critics had been adopted by Johnson, there would have been a real danger of war between the United States and China."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyway, how would the Vietnam War have progressed since that point in time?

Also, what effects would this have on Laos, Cambodia, and the rest of the region?

Finally, what effects would a US-China war in Vietnam have on both the US and China?

[stevep]

  futurist

  I suspect your right that if America had launched a massive invasion of N Vietnam the Chinese would have intervened.  Which would have lead to a much bigger conflict, even if as with the Korean example, the US didn't expand attacks to China itself.  Also since you have the options to infiltrate via Laos and the US was the one who triggered a wider conflict support for the US would be less.  You definitely wouldn't get a UN initiative in support of it and its smaller number of allies while some powers are likely to withdraw support.  [Australia had some troops there and probably would have ended such direct support.  Don't know what the Philippines would have done and Taiwan might have increased support but S Korea, fearing a new attack from the south might have been more reluctant as well.

  The big uncertainty might have been the Soviet reaction.  While technically on the communist side and it supplied a lot of weaponry as well as political support from ~1969 there were some very tense clashes with China, including heavy border clashes.  I have seen suggestions that worried by Mao's behaviour and the limited possession of nuclear weapons by PRC at the time that Moscow approached Washington for a joint operation to basically take out Chinese nuclear weapons.  Doubt that the Soviets would actually attack China if it and the US were at war but they might decide to offer only limited support and be quite happy that the US and China were tearing chunks out of each others military - and hence economic strength.  Even if the US started say direct bombing of targets in China.

  Given the last couple of decades Mao had virtually total control over China but had left it desperately weaken economically and socially in many ways.  The chaos of the 'Cultural Revolution' especially had done a lot of damage so how such a conflict might have gone is uncertain.  I suspect that sooner or latter public opinion would force a US withdrawal, almost certainly resulting in the fall of S Vietnam.  However both China and Vietnam could be badly mauled by the conflict and their development seriously retarded.  In China's case possibly this might also mean that after Mao's death the 'victory' over the US has given the hard-liners enough prestige that they win out over reformers.

  Of course all bets are totally off if some idiot starts using nukes.  China could well be broken into chaos and its unlikely that any attacks would hit the continental US but it would be very unpopular in the rest of the world and there would probably be an even strong anti-war and anti-nuclear reaction inside the US.

  Steve

[James G]

I would think that an invasion of North Vietnam would have been successful in beating the North in a military sense rather quickly. However, Chinese intervention was near assured and China would provide a different kind of fight. We might have seen a similar situation to the Korean War where the fight stays inside Vietnam though rather than it spreading directly up into China. I think it could have happened.

[futurist]

Sept 20, 2018 15:50:57 GMT stevep said:

  futurist

  1. I suspect your right that if America had launched a massive invasion of N Vietnam the Chinese would have intervened.  Which would have lead to a much bigger conflict, even if as with the Korean example, the US didn't expand attacks to China itself.  Also since you have the options to infiltrate via Laos and the US was the one who triggered a wider conflict support for the US would be less.  You definitely wouldn't get a UN initiative in support of it and its smaller number of allies while some powers are likely to withdraw support.  [Australia had some troops there and probably would have ended such direct support.  Don't know what the Philippines would have done and Taiwan might have increased support but S Korea, fearing a new attack from the south might have been more reluctant as well.

  2. The big uncertainty might have been the Soviet reaction.  While technically on the communist side and it supplied a lot of weaponry as well as political support from ~1969 there were some very tense clashes with China, including heavy border clashes.  I have seen suggestions that worried by Mao's behaviour and the limited possession of nuclear weapons by PRC at the time that Moscow approached Washington for a joint operation to basically take out Chinese nuclear weapons.  Doubt that the Soviets would actually attack China if it and the US were at war but they might decide to offer only limited support and be quite happy that the US and China were tearing chunks out of each others military - and hence economic strength.  Even if the US started say direct bombing of targets in China.

  3. Given the last couple of decades Mao had virtually total control over China but had left it desperately weaken economically and socially in many ways.  The chaos of the 'Cultural Revolution' especially had done a lot of damage so how such a conflict might have gone is uncertain.  I suspect that sooner or latter public opinion would force a US withdrawal, almost certainly resulting in the fall of S Vietnam.  However both China and Vietnam could be badly mauled by the conflict and their development seriously retarded.  In China's case possibly this might also mean that after Mao's death the 'victory' over the US has given the hard-liners enough prestige that they win out over reformers.

  4. Of course all bets are totally off if some idiot starts using nukes.  China could well be broken into chaos and its unlikely that any attacks would hit the continental US but it would be very unpopular in the rest of the world and there would probably be an even strong anti-war and anti-nuclear reaction inside the US.

  Steve

1. Agreed with all of this.

2. Agreed that the Soviet Union would only offer enough support to prevent North Vietnam from being completely conquered. Basically, the Soviets are only going to give as much as is necessary to prevent a total U.S. victory in the Vietnam War. Otherwise, as you said, they'd be quite happy watching the U.S. and China tear each other to shreds.

3. All of this is certainly very possible. In regards to the outcome of the war, the U.S. and South Vietnam might initially have the upper hand, but whether they would have been able to maintain their upper hand indefinitely is an open question. I do think that a new war with the U.S. in the 1960s over Vietnam might have actually made Chinese reformers more formidable after Mao's death, though. After all, Chinese reformers could say that China was severely hurt by fighting two wars against the U.S. and that it's thus now time to make amends with the U.S. in order to help facilitate China's economic development. Of course, there could be complications in regards to this if South Vietnam doesn't fall by the end of the 1970s; after all, the U.S. might make it a precondition for China to restrain its North Vietnamese allies if it wants to establish close economic ties with the United States. In such a scenario, we could potentially see China's economic reforms be delayed a bit--perhaps until South Vietnam finally falls.

4. I strongly doubt that the U.S. would have actually used nukes in the Vietnam War in this TL. However, if it would have and if China would have been nuked, things could really go haywire. For instance, was China already capable of firing nuclear missiles at South Korea and Japan by this point in time?

Also, in such a scenario, hatred of the U.S. among the Chinese would have probably gone through the roof and thus poisoned U.S.-China relations for decades.

[futurist]

Sept 23, 2018 12:01:15 GMT James G said:

I would think that an invasion of North Vietnam would have been successful in beating the North in a military sense rather quickly. However, Chinese intervention was near assured and China would provide a different kind of fight. We might have seen a similar situation to the Korean War where the fight stays inside Vietnam though rather than it spreading directly up into China. I think it could have happened.

Do you have any ideas on where the front lines would have stabilized in Vietnam--at least temporarily?