Poland's foreign policy if it breaks away from Russia after a revolution in a no-WWI scenario

[futurist]

What would Poland's foreign policy be in a scenario where World War I never occurred and where Poland (as in, Congress Poland) would have broken away from Russia after Russia would have experienced a revolution (which I suspect was only a matter of time due to Russian Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence)?

For the record, in this scenario, Poland would have territorial claims on all three of its neighbors--it would want Posen, Upper Silesia, Masuria, and the Polish Corridor from Germany, Galicia from Austria, and Vilnius and possibly Volhynia as well from Russia. Which territorial claims would Poland have prioritized in this scenario and what would its relations with its neighbors and with the other Great Powers have been?

Also, it is worth noting that an independent Poland could be a pain-in-the-butt in regards to Russia's alliance with France since Russia's border with Germany is going to massively shrink in this scenario as a result of Poland being in the way. Thus, it would be an absolute imperative of Russo-French foreign policy to make Poland enter the Franco-Russian alliance in this scenario. However, Poland is probably going to demand a very high price for entering this alliance, and promises of territorial gains in Germany and Austria in the event of a future war might not be enough to convince Poland in regards to this since there is no guarantee that this war would ever actually take place and since such a war could be extremely bloody.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

[stevep]

Oct 3, 2018 23:29:35 GMT futurist said:

What would Poland's foreign policy be in a scenario where World War I never occurred and where Poland (as in, Congress Poland) would have broken away from Russia after Russia would have experienced a revolution (which I suspect was only a matter of time due to Russian Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence)?

For the record, in this scenario, Poland would have territorial claims on all three of its neighbors--it would want Posen, Upper Silesia, Masuria, and the Polish Corridor from Germany, Galicia from Austria, and Vilnius and possibly Volhynia as well from Russia. Which territorial claims would Poland have prioritized in this scenario and what would its relations with its neighbors and with the other Great Powers have been?

Also, it is worth noting that an independent Poland could be a pain-in-the-butt in regards to Russia's alliance with France since Russia's border with Germany is going to massively shrink in this scenario as a result of Poland being in the way. Thus, it would be an absolute imperative of Russo-French foreign policy to make Poland enter the Franco-Russian alliance in this scenario. However, Poland is probably going to demand a very high price for entering this alliance, and promises of territorial gains in Germany and Austria in the event of a future war might not be enough to convince Poland in regards to this since there is no guarantee that this war would ever actually take place and since such a war could be extremely bloody.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

  I think one point is how Poland stays independent.  If it breaks away during the TTL Russian revolution then what is the view of the new rulers in St Petersberg [or Moscow] on this independence.  If they are hostile to it either Russia is still very weak and divided, in which case its not really an effective ally of France, or Poland has one or more powerful allies/protectors and I can only see Germany, possibly, in this role.  Possibly because as you say Poland would have claims on German and Austria territory, which would cause problems.  However provided the Poles weren't too vocal in this I could see Germany seeking to protect Poland as a useful ally/buffer to Russia, especially while their prime war plan is to strike west and defeat France quickly.  Which is likely to persist in a period where Russia has been weakened, at least for a while, by a revolution.

  Of course for Poland the other big problem is that a war between Russia and Germany will almost certainly be fought largely on Polish soil - which you probably meant but didn't explicitly state.  As you say this would be very bad for Poland so it depends on the foresight of their leaders.

[eurofed]

Oct 4, 2018 8:35:07 GMT stevep said:

Oct 3, 2018 23:29:35 GMT futurist said:

What would Poland's foreign policy be in a scenario where World War I never occurred and where Poland (as in, Congress Poland) would have broken away from Russia after Russia would have experienced a revolution (which I suspect was only a matter of time due to Russian Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence)?

For the record, in this scenario, Poland would have territorial claims on all three of its neighbors--it would want Posen, Upper Silesia, Masuria, and the Polish Corridor from Germany, Galicia from Austria, and Vilnius and possibly Volhynia as well from Russia. Which territorial claims would Poland have prioritized in this scenario and what would its relations with its neighbors and with the other Great Powers have been?

Also, it is worth noting that an independent Poland could be a pain-in-the-butt in regards to Russia's alliance with France since Russia's border with Germany is going to massively shrink in this scenario as a result of Poland being in the way. Thus, it would be an absolute imperative of Russo-French foreign policy to make Poland enter the Franco-Russian alliance in this scenario. However, Poland is probably going to demand a very high price for entering this alliance, and promises of territorial gains in Germany and Austria in the event of a future war might not be enough to convince Poland in regards to this since there is no guarantee that this war would ever actually take place and since such a war could be extremely bloody.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

  I think one point is how Poland stays independent.  If it breaks away during the TTL Russian revolution then what is the view of the new rulers in St Petersberg [or Moscow] on this independence.  If they are hostile to it either Russia is still very weak and divided, in which case its not really an effective ally of France, or Poland has one or more powerful allies/protectors and I can only see Germany, possibly, in this role.  Possibly because as you say Poland would have claims on German and Austria territory, which would cause problems.  However provided the Poles weren't too vocal in this I could see Germany seeking to protect Poland as a useful ally/buffer to Russia, especially while their prime war plan is to strike west and defeat France quickly.  Which is likely to persist in a period where Russia has been weakened, at least for a while, by a revolution.

  Of course for Poland the other big problem is that a war between Russia and Germany will almost certainly be fought largely on Polish soil - which you probably meant but didn't explicitly state.  As you say this would be very bad for Poland so it depends on the foresight of their leaders.

I concur in these circumstances continued independence of Poland is only feasible if Russia stays weakened by ongoing instability or Germany steps up to be Poland's ally and protector. If the Polish leaders were talented enough to accomplish a successful breakaway from Russia in the first place and a resurgent Russia later stabilizes enough to be a serious threat for Poland, I assume they would also be pragmatic enough to put their potential territorial claims on Austrian and German land deep into the freezer and ally with the CP. At most they would very politely lobby for German and Austrian Poles getting cultural and/or administrative autonomy.

As it concerns the military disadvantages of a CP alliance for Poland, I do not assume they would actually be that great, since in practice the Eastern front portion of the Great War would be largely fought on Baltic, Belarusian, and Ukrainian land rather than Polish one, unless the Polish army proves to be even more incompetent than all the other WWI belligerants or the Russian one substantially better than OTL. Even if the German war plan is the OTL one, either Plan Schliffen succeeds and then the CP walz their way into victory or (more likely) it fails and the Germans quickly turn to throw the bulk of their military power on the Eastern front before the Russian army can advance much deep into eastern Poland and Galicia. In practice the CP-cum-Poland would start WWI on the Eastern front someplace close to the eastern bank of the Vistula or the Bug (depending on which border the Poles were able to win from Russia in their war of independence) and steadily fight their way eastward until Russia collapses (again) into revolution, which would be a substantial strategic gain for the CP at large and not much of a serious burden for Poland (not more so than for the other WWI belligerants, anyway). Certainly this would mean the timetable of Russia's collapse is substantially accelerated, say by a year to year and half or so. This would almost surely guarantee a CP victory.

An interesting question in this scenario is whether the strategic shift in the balance of power the CP-Poland alliance would cause is enough to make Italy assume the CP are likely going to win and stay loyal to the Triple Alliance out of a wish to grab Nice, Savoy, Corsica, and Tunisia even if A-H turns out to be the usual tight-fisted, off-putting dicks that would not concede anything ever to compensate their allies despite pacts to the contrary. I think it would be quite possible and even likely, making a CP victory even quicker and easier. Of course, the Italians and the Poles would fight WWI to grab their own booties from France and Russia and in the secret hope the war effort causes postwar A-H to collapse, allowing them to pick their own chosen pieces. More or less the same point applies for Romania, which has good chances to assume the CP are going to win and join them to grab Bessarabia. ITTL it is exceedingly likely the expanded CP coalition would see victory on the horizon well before Germany ever feels tempted to use USW in earnest, which means the USA stays a true neutral and the Entente is toast.

[futurist]

Oct 4, 2018 8:35:07 GMT stevep said:

Oct 3, 2018 23:29:35 GMT futurist said:

What would Poland's foreign policy be in a scenario where World War I never occurred and where Poland (as in, Congress Poland) would have broken away from Russia after Russia would have experienced a revolution (which I suspect was only a matter of time due to Russian Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence)?

For the record, in this scenario, Poland would have territorial claims on all three of its neighbors--it would want Posen, Upper Silesia, Masuria, and the Polish Corridor from Germany, Galicia from Austria, and Vilnius and possibly Volhynia as well from Russia. Which territorial claims would Poland have prioritized in this scenario and what would its relations with its neighbors and with the other Great Powers have been?

Also, it is worth noting that an independent Poland could be a pain-in-the-butt in regards to Russia's alliance with France since Russia's border with Germany is going to massively shrink in this scenario as a result of Poland being in the way. Thus, it would be an absolute imperative of Russo-French foreign policy to make Poland enter the Franco-Russian alliance in this scenario. However, Poland is probably going to demand a very high price for entering this alliance, and promises of territorial gains in Germany and Austria in the event of a future war might not be enough to convince Poland in regards to this since there is no guarantee that this war would ever actually take place and since such a war could be extremely bloody.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

  1. I think one point is how Poland stays independent.  If it breaks away during the TTL Russian revolution then what is the view of the new rulers in St Petersberg [or Moscow] on this independence.  If they are hostile to it either Russia is still very weak and divided, in which case its not really an effective ally of France, or Poland has one or more powerful allies/protectors and I can only see Germany, possibly, in this role.  Possibly because as you say Poland would have claims on German and Austria territory, which would cause problems.  However provided the Poles weren't too vocal in this I could see Germany seeking to protect Poland as a useful ally/buffer to Russia, especially while their prime war plan is to strike west and defeat France quickly.  Which is likely to persist in a period where Russia has been weakened, at least for a while, by a revolution.

  2. Of course for Poland the other big problem is that a war between Russia and Germany will almost certainly be fought largely on Polish soil - which you probably meant but didn't explicitly state.  As you say this would be very bad for Poland so it depends on the foresight of their leaders.

1. If Russia remains liberal and democratic, it would probably be willing to support Polish independence--at least if Poland is willing to ally with Russia. I don't know what they would do if Poland refuses to ally with Russia, though I don't think that they would have had the appetite to reoccupy Poland during peacetime. If war breaks out, though, then it's probably going to be different since Russia mostly needs to get through Poland in order for it to actually have access to Germany.

I could see Germany trying to serve as Poland's protector in this scenario in order to prevent Poland from allying with Russia. However, the problem is that Russia has more to offer Poland than Germany does (assuming that Russia is actually willing to recognize Poland's independence, that is). After all, I would think that Galicia, Posen, the Polish Corridor, Upper Silesia, and Masuria are much more attractive to Poland than Vilnius and Volhynia are. I am skeptical that Poland would be willing to ally with Germany for such meager territorial gains in the event of victory; thus, for Poland, the most attractive option appears to be to ally with Russia if it is actually willing to respect Polish independence.

2. This is true, but there's an old saying which goes like this: "No pain, no gain!" Thus, Poland would understandably need to endure some pain if it wants to achieve territorial expansion, and the most logical path for Poland to endure pain is by allying with Russia against Germany and Austria-Hungary so that it could get much more of its desired spoils than it would get if it allied with Germany and Austria-Hungary against Russia.

[futurist]

Also, this is a radical idea, but I might as well propose it here: Could an independent Poland try joining Austria-Hungary? After all, this would allow it to reunify with some of its long-lost brethren and also make it much more secure since it would now be a part of a Great Power. Unifying with Germany makes no sense since the Germans will decisively outnumber the Poles, and reunifying with Russia would obviously be unacceptable to the Poles due to the fact that Russians will massively outnumber Poles. If continued independence for Poland doesn't look that attractive, might Poland desire to unify with Austria-Hungary?

For the record, if Poland is added to the Austrian part of Austria-Hungary, then it's possible that Poles would actually make up a majority or at the very least a plurality of the total population in Austria--something which should give the Poles a lot of political power. Of course, the downside in joining Austria-Hungary is that Poland would likely have to forever say goodbye to its territorial claims in the German Empire.

[stevep]

Oct 4, 2018 20:22:02 GMT futurist said:

Also, this is a radical idea, but I might as well propose it here: Could an independent Poland try joining Austria-Hungary? After all, this would allow it to reunify with some of its long-lost brethren and also make it much more secure since it would now be a part of a Great Power. Unifying with Germany makes no sense since the Germans will decisively outnumber the Poles, and reunifying with Russia would obviously be unacceptable to the Poles due to the fact that Russians will massively outnumber Poles. If continued independence for Poland doesn't look that attractive, might Poland desire to unify with Austria-Hungary?

For the record, if Poland is added to the Austrian part of Austria-Hungary, then it's possible that Poles would actually make up a majority or at the very least a plurality of the total population in Austria--something which should give the Poles a lot of political power. Of course, the downside in joining Austria-Hungary is that Poland would likely have to forever say goodbye to its territorial claims in the German Empire.

  I don't know if that would be practical.  Both because Polish nationalists would be reluctant and because also the Hapsburg's would probably find that too large a meal to digest.  At the very least it would have to become a Triple Monarchy with the Poles at least at the same level as the Hungarians.   Also if push comes to shove this merge would be dangerously exposed to a Russo-German alliance as its stuck between them and the Hapsburg regime lacks the strength to be able to defend against such a combination.  Due to the geographical reality such a merge is likely to force a break between Berlin and Vienna.

  I suspect, definitely if there was a liberal Russia that recognised Polish independence Poland would favour Russia rather than Germany.  It's largely got what it desires from Russia and Germany is the main power with a significant Polish minority.  Its only really if what emerges from Russia is revanchist that Poland is likely to be desperate enough to look to Germany for protection.

[futurist]

Oct 4, 2018 21:57:47 GMT stevep said:

Oct 4, 2018 20:22:02 GMT futurist said:

Also, this is a radical idea, but I might as well propose it here: Could an independent Poland try joining Austria-Hungary? After all, this would allow it to reunify with some of its long-lost brethren and also make it much more secure since it would now be a part of a Great Power. Unifying with Germany makes no sense since the Germans will decisively outnumber the Poles, and reunifying with Russia would obviously be unacceptable to the Poles due to the fact that Russians will massively outnumber Poles. If continued independence for Poland doesn't look that attractive, might Poland desire to unify with Austria-Hungary?

For the record, if Poland is added to the Austrian part of Austria-Hungary, then it's possible that Poles would actually make up a majority or at the very least a plurality of the total population in Austria--something which should give the Poles a lot of political power. Of course, the downside in joining Austria-Hungary is that Poland would likely have to forever say goodbye to its territorial claims in the German Empire.

  1. I don't know if that would be practical.  Both because Polish nationalists would be reluctant and because also the Hapsburg's would probably find that too large a meal to digest.  At the very least it would have to become a Triple Monarchy with the Poles at least at the same level as the Hungarians.   Also if push comes to shove this merge would be dangerously exposed to a Russo-German alliance as its stuck between them and the Hapsburg regime lacks the strength to be able to defend against such a combination.  Due to the geographical reality such a merge is likely to force a break between Berlin and Vienna.

  2. I suspect, definitely if there was a liberal Russia that recognised Polish independence Poland would favour Russia rather than Germany.  It's largely got what it desires from Russia and Germany is the main power with a significant Polish minority.  Its only really if what emerges from Russia is revanchist that Poland is likely to be desperate enough to look to Germany for protection.

1. I don't see why exactly Germany would have to break from Austria-Hungary in the event that Austria-Hungary annexes Congress Poland. After all, as long as Austria-Hungary doesn't make any claims on German territory, Germany and Austria-Hungary can still be allies against Russia.

2. Yeah, as I wrote above, Russia would have already lost most of its Polish-heavy territories while Germany and Austria-Hungary would still have a lot of Polish-heavy territories in Galicia, Upper Silesia, Posen, the Polish Corridor, and Masuria. Thus, you appear to be very much correct that Poland would likely ally with Russia if Russia didn't pose a renewed threat to Polish independence. Frankly, I would think that Russia's leadership would be smart enough to realize that threatening Poland isn't going to be very productive and will thus instead aim to cooperate with Poland. After all, it's much better to have Poland as an ally than to have it be a part of your country and be a constant pain-in-the-butt for you.

Also, as I previously wrote, Poland is going to be aware that there is a very serious risk that it will be the battlefield in any future conflict between Russia and Germany + Austria-Hungary. However, if Poland wants to expand, this is the only way for it to do so.

[stevep]

Oct 4, 2018 22:05:36 GMT futurist said:

Oct 4, 2018 21:57:47 GMT stevep said:

  1. I don't know if that would be practical.  Both because Polish nationalists would be reluctant and because also the Hapsburg's would probably find that too large a meal to digest.  At the very least it would have to become a Triple Monarchy with the Poles at least at the same level as the Hungarians.   Also if push comes to shove this merge would be dangerously exposed to a Russo-German alliance as its stuck between them and the Hapsburg regime lacks the strength to be able to defend against such a combination.  Due to the geographical reality such a merge is likely to force a break between Berlin and Vienna.

  2. I suspect, definitely if there was a liberal Russia that recognised Polish independence Poland would favour Russia rather than Germany.  It's largely got what it desires from Russia and Germany is the main power with a significant Polish minority.  Its only really if what emerges from Russia is revanchist that Poland is likely to be desperate enough to look to Germany for protection.

1. I don't see why exactly Germany would have to break from Austria-Hungary in the event that Austria-Hungary annexes Congress Poland. After all, as long as Austria-Hungary doesn't make any claims on German territory, Germany and Austria-Hungary can still be allies against Russia.

2. Yeah, as I wrote above, Russia would have already lost most of its Polish-heavy territories while Germany and Austria-Hungary would still have a lot of Polish-heavy territories in Galicia, Upper Silesia, Posen, the Polish Corridor, and Masuria. Thus, you appear to be very much correct that Poland would likely ally with Russia if Russia didn't pose a renewed threat to Polish independence. Frankly, I would think that Russia's leadership would be smart enough to realize that threatening Poland isn't going to be very productive and will thus instead aim to cooperate with Poland. After all, it's much better to have Poland as an ally than to have it be a part of your country and be a constant pain-in-the-butt for you.

Also, as I previously wrote, Poland is going to be aware that there is a very serious risk that it will be the battlefield in any future conflict between Russia and Germany + Austria-Hungary. However, if Poland wants to expand, this is the only way for it to do so.

1)  Not saying they would but think its a possibility because.

a)  You no longer have a realistic German -Russian border so Austria - in the form of its Polish provinces are stuck in between them.  Which as the Poles can tell them is a bad place to be with more powerful neighbours on opposing borders.

b)  Austria is likely to 'inherit' Polish claims/desires for liberating its people under foreign rule, which largely means in German provinces such as Pose, W Prussia and Silesia.  While Vienna is almost certain to downplay this its something that will be on the minds of Polish nationalists and the government in Berlin. 

2)  I suspect this would make the Polish state a lot more cautious, especially since it not only means being ravaged by the war but the considerable risk of losing their recently gained independence if they end up being occupied by the Germanic powers.