Suvorov, Operation August Storm and Icebreaker

[James G]

The Soviet GRU defector Viktor Suvorov - real name Vladimir Bogdanovich Rezun - wrote several books after arriving in the West.
I was reading 'Spetsnaz', published in 1987. He speaks in passing of a future war (a short alternate history piece actually) taking place at the Soviet's choosing starting in the month of August. He asserts that back under Stalin, when Germany was fighting the Western Allies, the Soviet Union planned to maintain its relations with the Nazis, wait until the Germans were worn down, and then attack in strength at the optimum moment. He refers to Operation August Storm, the immense Soviet operation against Japanese-controlled Manchuria where Stalin did just this to the Japanese.
In the later 'Icebreaker' (1990), Suvorov goes further on this and insists that Stalin was planning to attack Germany first ahead of Hitler's invasion. This theory has been deemed to be false in analysis of Suvorov's work. It is said he has no proof and the idea is rubbish.

What if he was right though?
How could this have occurred, that the Soviets would have waited until the Germans were bogged down in Europe during the early years of WW2 and thus open to a massive Soviet surprise attack going west? What type of geo-political situation would have brought about this opening?

[stevep]

Oct 9, 2018 20:19:11 GMT James G said:

The Soviet GRU defector Viktor Suvorov - real name Vladimir Bogdanovich Rezun - wrote several books after arriving in the West.
I was reading 'Spetsnaz', published in 1987. He speaks in passing of a future war (a short alternate history piece actually) taking place at the Soviet's choosing starting in the month of August. He asserts that back under Stalin, when Germany was fighting the Western Allies, the Soviet Union planned to maintain its relations with the Nazis, wait until the Germans were worn down, and then attack in strength at the optimum moment. He refers to Operation August Storm, the immense Soviet operation against Japanese-controlled Manchuria where Stalin did just this to the Japanese.
In the later 'Icebreaker' (1990), Suvorov goes further on this and insists that Stalin was planning to attack Germany first ahead of Hitler's invasion. This theory has been deemed to be false in analysis of Suvorov's work. It is said he has no proof and the idea is rubbish.

What if he was right though?
How could this have occurred, that the Soviets would have waited until the Germans were bogged down in Europe during the early years of WW2 and thus open to a massive Soviet surprise attack going west? What type of geo-political situation would have brought about this opening?

  If Stalin did then he would really need to move in May 40, although he was expecting that to be the start of an extended war of attrition in the west.  If the Germans had got bogged down it would have depended on the details and when exactly Stalin decided to move.  Ideally for him probably would be say ~41/42 with both sides having taken heavy losses and the Germans starting to be forced back as well, he would consider, the Red Army suitably rebuilt.  He needs to move before Germany is on the verge of collapse else it might just surrender quickly to the western powers to limit Soviet gains and you might even see what the Nazis hoped for OTL, the west and Germany [albeit probably a post-Nazi one] allying to drive the Soviets back.

  As such to use an OTL example possibly something similar to the autumn of 44 with the Germans being forced back by larger allied forces [albeit Anglo-American rather than Anglo-French in this case] but still fighting hard and with most of their forces pulled west to help defend the homeland.  [Which of course didn't happen OTL because they were in a bitter war with the Soviets]

  In that case depending on how efficiently the Red Army fights - which might be difficult to tell without any conflict since the Winter War - and how much the Germans have stripped their eastern front.  Would expect a drive into Prussia and German occupied Poland and another into Romania, both to broaden the front and to deny Germany its oil.  After that a lot depends on the relative military and political status of the two sides.  If successful the Soviet zone of control might be similar to OTL although it might not include Bulgaria or Yugoslavia if those states have stayed strictly neutral, and it might include more of Germany and possibly also Denmark which would secure control of the Baltic and its exit.  Although there's the possibility of it still backfiring.

[TheRomanSlayer]

If Stalin attacks, then it would actually flare up anti-communist rhetoric to new levels, and the Western Allies might find themselves fighting on the same side as Hitler.

[stevep]

Nov 23, 2018 4:57:26 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

If Stalin attacks, then it would actually flare up anti-communist rhetoric to new levels, and the Western Allies might find themselves fighting on the same side as Hitler.

  I'n doubtful it would go that far but if your talking of a say spring/early summer 41 attack that doesn't turn into a disaster for the Soviets then you might see a cease-fire or even peace between Britain and the Axis which might conceded some lands, say Alsace-Lorraine but would want the Germans out of the rest of France along with the Low countries and Norway to remove the threat to British supply lines.  Doubt Hitler would actually accept that unless he was desperate but can't see Britain accepting anything less.