Qusay Hussein succeeds his father? (no Iraq War)

[James G]

Sketch scenario.

Gore wins in 2000. 9-11 happens as it does. Saddam still celebrates as he does, yet the US is busy with Afghanistan going after Bin Laden.
A few years later, let's say 2005, Saddam dies peacefully in his sleep: no violence but a sudden illness.
The brothers fight and the younger Qusay, not the older and bloodthirsty Uday, emerges as leader: Uday exiled to Jordan.
Qusay is feted by the West. He promises (limited) political freedoms, non-aggression, letting the UN inspectors in... and cheap oil to the West.
The West buys it like they bought Assad the Younger and Gaddafi the Younger.
Peace and happiness for all etc, apart from pesky human rights campaigners in Iraq who returned from aboard who go missing and no one cares.

Plausible?

[lordroel]

Nov 13, 2018 22:50:21 GMT James G said:

Sketch scenario.

Gore wins in 2000. 9-11 happens as it does. Saddam still celebrates as he does, yet the US is busy with Afghanistan going after Bin Laden.
A few years later, let's say 2005, Saddam dies peacefully in his sleep: no violence but a sudden illness.
The brothers fight and the younger Qusay, not the older and bloodthirsty Uday, emerges as leader: Uday exiled to Jordan.
Qusay is feted by the West. He promises (limited) political freedoms, non-aggression, letting the UN inspectors in... and cheap oil to the West.
The West buys it like they bought Assad the Younger and Gaddafi the Younger.
Peace and happiness for all etc, apart from pesky human rights campaigners in Iraq who returned from aboard who go missing and no one cares.

Plausible?

And we will most likely also see some form of the Arab Spring happening in Iraq.

[raunchel]

Nov 13, 2018 22:50:21 GMT James G said:

Sketch scenario.

Gore wins in 2000. 9-11 happens as it does. Saddam still celebrates as he does, yet the US is busy with Afghanistan going after Bin Laden.
A few years later, let's say 2005, Saddam dies peacefully in his sleep: no violence but a sudden illness.
The brothers fight and the younger Qusay, not the older and bloodthirsty Uday, emerges as leader: Uday exiled to Jordan.
Qusay is feted by the West. He promises (limited) political freedoms, non-aggression, letting the UN inspectors in... and cheap oil to the West.
The West buys it like they bought Assad the Younger and Gaddafi the Younger.
Peace and happiness for all etc, apart from pesky human rights campaigners in Iraq who returned from aboard who go missing and no one cares.

Plausible?

If he manages to take power without too many issues (Qusay was no Usay, but still not the most competent), I could see it happen. To succeed, he would probably rely on a few competent higher-ups (at least, at first. You can always purge later), and as you mention, cheap oil. That's something that can make the West look away from quite a lot of things as long as you keep them internal. 

Of course, some activists and opposition get murdered, but we all know how much of a reaction that gets in the West (see for instance Saudi Arabia, which gets away with a lot as long as they don't do it too openly in other countries). 

[James G]

Nov 14, 2018 4:12:20 GMT lordroel said:

Nov 13, 2018 22:50:21 GMT James G said:

Sketch scenario.

Gore wins in 2000. 9-11 happens as it does. Saddam still celebrates as he does, yet the US is busy with Afghanistan going after Bin Laden.
A few years later, let's say 2005, Saddam dies peacefully in his sleep: no violence but a sudden illness.
The brothers fight and the younger Qusay, not the older and bloodthirsty Uday, emerges as leader: Uday exiled to Jordan.
Qusay is feted by the West. He promises (limited) political freedoms, non-aggression, letting the UN inspectors in... and cheap oil to the West.
The West buys it like they bought Assad the Younger and Gaddafi the Younger.
Peace and happiness for all etc, apart from pesky human rights campaigners in Iraq who returned from aboard who go missing and no one cares.

Plausible?

And we will most likely also see some form of the Arab Spring happening in Iraq.

Yes, different but overall the same. A very specific set of circumstances led to the Arab Spring yet the underlying causes - food issues - were still there without the WikiLeaks issue setting off events in Tunisia. Something else could bring protests elsewhere which could lead to an issue in Iraq. Qusay could go down like Gaddafi did when his new friends in the West turn on him now they know he has no WMDs.

[mullauna]

Then it's warlordism, just like has happened in Libya. Obama will mis-handle alt-Iraq just as he mis-handled Syria.

[James G]

Nov 16, 2018 19:00:59 GMT mullauna said:

Then it's warlordism, just like has happened in Libya. Obama will mis-handle alt-Iraq just as he mis-handled Syria.

I disagree that any Iraqi Spring would play out like Libya. Iraq and it's oil wealth are too important to be ignored like Libya was.
Moreover, as this is alternate history, without an Iraq War, the rise of Obama is nowhere near assured and even if he is president, he'd be a different president with a  different foreign policy agenda.