Republicans post-Gerald Ford's second term?

[mullauna]

it's fairly easy to get Ford to win a squeaker against Carter and 1980 will be uphill for the GOP as a result of 12 years of Republican rule and the crises in the late seventies so it's likely there is no President Reagan in the Ford World.

So what happens to the Republican Party going forward into the eighties? I don't see any one else plausible who can offer "the hard right with a human face" that Reagan was able to.

[sasalele]

I think the problem is that Reagan was so larger than life he just sucked up any attention from other viable hard right conservative Republicans in the 70s. I think you could look at George W. Bush and the platform he ran on in 2000.

Going off that, Jack Kemp could be the next Republican face for '88 or '92 if we assume there's an H.W. equivalent after a Dem win in '80. He's the most likely in my opinion.

[James G]

Nov 18, 2018 3:49:49 GMT sasalele said:

I think the problem is that Reagan was so larger than life he just sucked up any attention from other viable hard right conservative Republicans in the 70s. I think you could look at George W. Bush and the platform he ran on in 2000.

Going off that, Jack Kemp could be the next Republican face for '88 or '92 if we assume there's an H.W. equivalent after a Dem win in '80. He's the most likely in my opinion.

I agree with the line of thought running there.
However, there is no guarantee that the Republican Party goes further right than it already was. It could easily centralise in a different 80s under a Democrat who could maybe be centralist rather than to the left: a post-Ford / post-Reagan Republican Party could easily be fighting for the centre ground hard too and not moving away.

[sasalele]

[/quote]I agree with the line of thought running there.
However, there is no guarantee that the Republican Party goes further right than it already was. It could easily centralise in a different 80s under a Democrat who could maybe be centralist rather than to the left: a post-Ford / post-Reagan Republican Party could easily be fighting for the centre ground hard too and not moving away.
[/quote]


My personal view is that Mondale takes it in ‘80 winning on a moderate platform handidly over Reagan who defeated VP Dole in the primaries. He governs similar to Bill Clinton fiscally speaking. Democrats had been moving to the center fiscally since the end of the 60s. Carter actually started the campaign of deregulation.

[mullauna]

who is Mondale's VP in '80 in Ford World?

[sasalele]

Nov 19, 2018 1:33:16 GMT mullauna said:

who is Mondale's VP in '80 in Ford World?

Lloyd Bentsen would be an excellent choice. He's from the electoral heavyweight of Texas, a protege of the legendary Sam Rayburn, and a centrist. 

[kyng]

I don't know that Mondale would have it that easy: Ted Kennedy put in a stiff challenge against Jimmy Carter in the 1980 Democratic primaries. If he could seriously threaten OTL's incumbent president, who knows what he'd be able to do against a divided opposition led by TTL's unsuccessful running mate from four years previously?!

I agree, however, that in his case, Bentsen would be a natural choice of running mate. A southern centrist to balance out the northeastern liberal.

[sasalele]

Nov 20, 2018 0:03:52 GMT kyng said:

I don't know that Mondale would have it that easy: Ted Kennedy put in a stiff challenge against Jimmy Carter in the 1980 Democratic primaries. If he could seriously threaten OTL's incumbent president, who knows what he'd be able to do against a divided opposition led by TTL's unsuccessful running mate from four years previously?!

I agree, however, that in his case, Bentsen would be a natural choice of running mate. A southern centrist to balance out the northeastern liberal.

Running in ‘80 seems like a no-brainer on paper, but would Ted want to run though with Chappaquddick still around his neck combined with his valuable Senate position and countless familial problems?

I doubt it.

I can see that Mondale wouldn’t have a cakewalk through the primaries with essentially a repeat of ‘76. But to me it would seem he has the best chance to unite the party.

You have it like this likely:

Walter Mondale: Moderate Liberal. Supported by the unions and northern liberals. A protege and close ally of the late liberal icon Hubert Humphrey
Henry Jackson: Courts more conservative and hawkish Democrats. Ultra pro-Israel, likely leads among Jewish Americans. Opposed to school busing. Despite support of the Civil Rights Movement, could win states in the South.
Jerry Brown: Very fringe. You can’t really describe him as liberal or conservative. Read about his OTL 1980 Campaign on his Wikipedia page.

[mcnutt]

I also see Mondale beating Reagan in a Ford wins in 1976 world. Like OTL John McCain in 2008, Reagan is the candidate of the President's party in bad economic times. Since the Ford Administration would have given the Shah more military aid, there may not have been a hostage crisis. Reagan also had some unpopular views like his opposition to Medicare. If he weren't running against a President in a time of crisis, Reagan would have been a weak candidate for President. I am remember reading that Mondale's first choice for running mate, before he decided to make a statement by choosing a women. So I think he might want a fellow liberal as running mate. Maybe then New York Governor Hugh Carry. I think President Mondale's 1984 opponent might be George HW Bush. He would have four more years in some prominent position in the Ford Administration.

[insect]

In a ford wins 76 seneario Loyed Bentson would ahve a good chance of beating Reagan in 80. unlike teddy Kennedy he has no scandal. unlike jery Brown notont he fringe..remeber quayle debates he tells it like it is. by 1980 Republicans been in charge 12 years..

[James G]

Nov 20, 2018 19:08:14 GMT mcnutt said:

I also see Mondale beating Reagan in a Ford wins in 1976 world. Like OTL John McCain in 2008, Reagan is the candidate of the President's party in bad economic times. Since the Ford Administration would have given the Shah more military aid, there may not have been a hostage crisis. Reagan also had some unpopular views like his opposition to Medicare. If he weren't running against a President in a time of crisis, Reagan would have been a weak candidate for President. I am remember reading that Mondale's first choice for running mate, before he decided to make a statement by choosing a women. So I think he might want a fellow liberal as running mate. Maybe then New York Governor Hugh Carry. I think President Mondale's 1984 opponent might be George HW Bush. He would have four more years in some prominent position in the Ford Administration.

Hugh Carey? The UK would just love that considering his outspoken position on Ulster. Not as bad as Kennedy but on the way there with the IRA 'freedom fighters' crap.

[mullauna]

Even in 1980, Two freaking liberals on a Democratic ticket is not happening. Even in 2018, it's hard getting progressives to understand that combining a black man with a latino woman etc on a ticket isn't viable.

[sasalele]

Nov 21, 2018 18:33:21 GMT mullauna said:

Even in 1980, Two freaking liberals on a Democratic ticket is not happening. Even in 2018, it's hard getting progressives to understand that combining a black man with a latino woman etc on a ticket isn't viable.

Vice Presidential picks have almost always been about balance. In 76, Carter picked Mondale because he had the connections to the Northern east coast liberal and union bases of the Democratic Party. There are going to be advisor and strategists who will remind Mondale of the necessary ballance.

[insect]

How about Pete Dupont ina ford wins 76 scenario