Cameron's Conservatives win in 2007 ?

[James G]

It is taken as a matter of fact that if there had been a UK general election in 2007, as many expected, Brown and Labour would have won. Won handily in fact.
(it was a matter of fact that May would win handily in 2017 too and... well...)
Everyone saw Brown's true colours as a poor election fighter in 2010.
I think he might have lost that election if fought.

How could Cameron have won if Brown called an election in 2007? How would Brown have messed up?
What does a Conservative or even Conservative-LibDem coalition government look like after a 2007 win?

[stevep]

Dec 13, 2018 20:41:14 GMT James G said:

It is taken as a matter of fact that if there had been a UK general election in 2007, as many expected, Brown and Labour would have won. Won handily in fact.
(it was a matter of fact that May would win handily in 2017 too and... well...)
Everyone saw Brown's true colours as a poor election fighter in 2010.
I think he might have lost that election if fought.

How could Cameron have won if Brown called an election in 2007? How would Brown have messed up?
What does a Conservative or even Conservative-LibDem coalition government look like after a 2007 win?

  It would depend on the circumstances as to what sort of Conservative victory occurred and it would definitely need a Tory minority in Parliament for them to consider any sort of alliance. 

  The crash would still come as everything was already in place for that, with massive corruption and gross incompetence in the financial markets across the world.  Cameron will still seek to blame Labour but I can't see him letting the banks go down either as the Tory party are even more in bed with the city than Labour were so they get rescued and everybody else goes to the dogs as OTL.  Ideally it is a solely Tory government as that would leave options for when Cameron was defeated 4-5 years later and some real reform, although if Clegg is in charge of the LibDems there is limited option for real change over the financial markets if their involved.  With another leader, for all their obsession with the EU there could be some real reform.  Of course a lot would also depend on what happens with Labour. 

[James G]

I can see the Conservatives getting the blame for the crash because they are there when it happens.
Oh a coalition in my mind was only a repeat of the 2010 situation, not a 2015 style victory.

[stevep]

Dec 14, 2018 9:43:25 GMT James G said:

I can see the Conservatives getting the blame for the crash because they are there when it happens.
Oh a coalition in my mind was only a repeat of the 2010 situation, not a 2015 style victory.

  It might depend on the circumstances but you could have a hung parliament, in which case a coalition becomes practical.  I wondered if an election in 2007, pre the crash would be enough to weaken Labour enough that the LibDems were the balancing party.  Also it gives less time for the gloss to wear off Cameron.  Hence there would be less dissatisfaction with both old parties and less chance of both of them failing to get a majority in parliament given our electoral system.

[kyng]

I don't think it would require *that* much explanation, really.

He was popular in the early months of his term mainly because of his handling of events like the Glasgow Airport bombing. His popularity dipped in October, mainly because he didn't call the election; however, had he called the election, I expect he would still have seen a dip in his poll numbers (albeit a less extreme one), simply because people were moving on from the Glasgow bombing by then, and so his numbers would have reverted to the mean. (This is a common error people make when analysing politicians' poll numbers: they usually attribute changes to new events occurring, but they're just as likely to change due to old events fading from memory)

My guess is he'd have started out the campaign with only a modest lead over Cameron, of at most 5%. He doesn't even need to run a terrible campaign in order to lose that: if Brown just runs a mediocre campaign, while Cameron runs a solid one, then it's a very winnable election for Cameron.

[James G]

Based off the Wikipedia article ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Cabinet_of_David_Cameron#Shadow_Cabinet_(2_July_2007_–_13_June_2008)  ), this is how a Cameron Cabinet would look.

Prime Minister - David Cameron
Chancellor - George Osborne
Foreign Secretary - William Hague
Home Secretary - David Davis
Justice Secretary - Nick Herbert
Health Secretary - Andrew Lansley
Communities & Local Gov. Secretary - Eric Pickles
Children, Schools & Families Secretary - Michael Gove
Defence Secretary - Liam Fox
DEFRA Secretary - Peter Ainsworth
Work & Pensions Secretary - Chris Grayling
Transport Secretary - Theresa Villiers
Culture, Media & Sport Secretary - Jeremy Hunt
Wales Secretary - Cheryl Gilan
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster - Francis Maude
International Development Secretary - Andrew Mitchell
Business Secretary - Alan Duncan
Universities Secretary - David Willetts
Scotland Secretary - David Mundell
Northern Ireland Secretary - Owen Paterson
Leader of the Commons - Theresa May
Party Chair - Caroline Spelman
Chief Whip - Patrick McLoughlin
Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Philip Hammond

Such a Cabinet would be a straight transfer from shadow ministerial briefs into government. It would, of course, be a Conservative-only government with an outright Cameron win.
Of note - to me anyway - is Davis' position and also May's. Osborne will be at the Treasury when the incoming global financial storm hits.