PC: Union State of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus

[TheRomanSlayer]

The Belavezha Accords was an agreement made in 1991 where the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union, and instead replace the proposed "Union of Sovereign States" with the OTL Commonwealth of Independent States (though this year Ukraine has left the CIS formally). It would also lead to the independence of all 15 Soviet republics. A defective attempt at a Union State of Russia and Belarus was made, but gradually evolved into the Eurasian Economic Union.

So how could we have an alt-Union State that keeps Russia, Ukraine and Belarus in one union, minus the Baltics, the Caucasus republics of the former USSR and the Central Asian republics? I do admit, that this is one of the most difficult challenges made due to the whole Russia-Ukraine controversy.

[James G]

Dec 27, 2018 1:28:43 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

The Belavezha Accords was an agreement made in 1991 where the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union, and instead replace the proposed "Union of Sovereign States" with the OTL Commonwealth of Independent States (though this year Ukraine has left the CIS formally). It would also lead to the independence of all 15 Soviet republics. A defective attempt at a Union State of Russia and Belarus was made, but gradually evolved into the Eurasian Economic Union.

So how could we have an alt-Union State that keeps Russia, Ukraine and Belarus in one union, minus the Baltics, the Caucasus republics of the former USSR and the Central Asian republics? I do admit, that this is one of the most difficult challenges made due to the whole Russia-Ukraine controversy.

I don't think it is that hard to do. Kiev and Minsk weren't keen on any mass break-up at the time and their leaders weren't that nationalistic at all. There is a chance that maybe some of the Central Asian republics would stay too.
Have the August coup d'état not occur or collapse very fast - say within hours - and I think this all might work.
Once together, tied to each other, many differences will be ironed out fast between the leaderships as I believe they will see it in their mutual interests to stick together rather than fight, dissolve and lose all that they have.  

[TheRomanSlayer]

Not having the August Coup happening would be hugely beneficial, although by 1990 or 1991, the three Baltic States, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia had left the Union. I wonder how a surviving rump USSR would have handled the Balkan mess, as well as the war in the Caucasus.