Eagle Guardian: The War of 2010

[Brky2020]

May 18, 2019 16:37:19 GMT James G said:

May 18, 2019 0:53:36 GMT Brky2020 said:

Male lead. -- Dwayne Johnson
Female lead. -- Blake Lively
Male co-star (Russian Spetsnaz commander). -- Jason Isaacs

Good choices there.

I tried to account for the possibility some current OTL actors would have died during the war, either in action or behind the lines. 

A guy like Jason Isaacs would move up the ladder in that scenario, and he seems to have the chops to play the Spetsnaz role.

The Rock came to mind as the quintessential action hero type who could find himself in either a really good action movie or a clusterf*ck this movie appears to have become. I had trouble coming up with a female lead, but figured Blake Lively might have been cast as the girlfriend who could take care of herself with bombs and bullets all around her. 

[forcon]

One Hundred and fifty Nine

Spies, generally, have always operated from embassies and consulates around the world.

Though these personnel often have basic training in terms of firearms handling and survival skills, spooks in general are expected to remain out of the line of fire. Before World War Three, intelligence officers, "case officers", as the CIA coined them, would spend most of their careers at cocktail parties or embassy balls, gaining the trust of sources or "agents" within foreign governments. For American intelligence officers - Civilians with the CIA and military personnel with the Defence Intelligence Agency - this was sometimes punctuated by periods of service in more dangerous parts of the world such as Afghanistan.

The outbreak of global conflict led to a sudden and violent escalation in the normally peaceful spy wars that went on behind the scenes, in neutral countries as well as in ones that were participating in the war. Intelligence officers found themselves facing armed threats from all around.

This began in Stockholm, when Britain's Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, attempted to abduct a senior GRU officer as he moved about within the Swedish capital. The Russian officer was believed to hold vital intelligence concerning Moscow's potential plans to drag Scandinavia into the war, and so an operation utilising a covert element known as 'The Increment' was authorised.

Armed men belonging to this paramilitary force, personnel recruited from Britain's military Special Forces contingent, dressed in plain clothes, ambushed the GRU officers' car within Stockholm.

However, the planned 'lifting' of the Russian went awry. A shootout occurred which left four Russians and two British operatives’ dead, along with a pair of Swedish civilians caught in the crossfire. The British personnel sped back to the safety of the embassy, leaving the Foreign Office to deal with the consequences of that. Days later, retaliation occurred; an MI6 case officer stationed in Cairo washed up on the shores of the Nile with her throat cut. From then on, spies were at war just like soldiers were.

The United States' government authorised an operation that would take place at the highest levels of secrecy, involving the CIA's Special Activities Division as well as small contingents from Delta Force and SEAL Team Six. Codenamed Operation Global Reach, the objective of this mission was to neutralise Russia's overseas intelligence gathering capacity with extreme prejudice.

Operation Global Reach was something that would in the future be hotly debated by conspiracy theorists, although the truths of the matter remain classified. Such will be the case for the next 350 years.

In the Austrian capital city of Vienna, a spy was discovered amongst the ranks of the diplomatic staff attached to the American embassy. As part of Operation Global Reach, this man was assassinated by a Delta Force sniper on his way to meet with his Russian handlers.

The official story told by the State Department would always be that the SVR had killed the man after suspecting him to be a double agent. The evidence against him had been gathered illegally and so would not be admissible in court, making the arrest of the traitor a lost cause. CIA psychologists had decided that he was too ideologically set to be turned, and if the man was to be snatched and sent away to a black site somewhere then his absence would eventually be noted; he was an American citizen, after all.

The decision was made to kill the traitor and this was done covertly and professionally.

In Rabat, things would go differently. A team of SEALs assigned to Operation Global Reach were deployed to neutralise an SVR assassination team from Zaslon; the ambush that had been excellently planned only led to a firefight that saw a dozen people killed.

Delta Force operators in Singapore had more success in raiding and shutting down a front company used by the upper echelons of Russian society to launder money. In Hong Kong, a CIA officer was abducted, tortured, and shot by the GRU, revealing information that led to yet another violent shootout when the Russians attempted to neutralise the traitor of their own.

[James G]

Jez... 350 years!

[lordroel]

May 19, 2019 19:52:02 GMT forcon said:

Operation Global Reach was something that would in the future be hotly debated by conspiracy theorists, although the truths of the matter remain classified. Such will be the case for the next 350 years.

That is a long time, doubt we will see a Wiki leak here then.

[James G]

May 20, 2019 3:18:13 GMT lordroel said:

May 19, 2019 19:52:02 GMT forcon said:

Operation Global Reach was something that would in the future be hotly debated by conspiracy theorists, although the truths of the matter remain classified. Such will be the case for the next 350 years.

That is a long time, doubt we will see a Wiki leak here then.

It is a staggering length of time!

[James G]

One Hundred and Sixty

The US Army’s Lt.–General Helmick, the commander of the XVIII Airborne Corps, had asked for reinforcements to come to Latvia to support his multinational force here deep in the Russian rear. The 82nd Airborne Division and the British-led (but multinational) 6th Airmobile Division were unable to fulfil the mission given to Helmick on their own. He didn’t put it in such terms to Mattis and Petraeus but that was the case. The Russians were bypassing the area of control the XVIII Corps had established along the Daugava River – going around his men – and thus their supply lines to forward-deployed forces were still active. Riga was being used by the Russians especially as they sent convoys loaded with ammunition, fuel and other stores through that civilian area with the full knowledge that NATO was weary of bombing ‘friendly’ civilians there. The XVIII Corps had turned back organised Russian & Belorussian units sent against them in major engagements yet had that underestimated local security problem to deal with where there were ‘unfriendly’ civilians plus also foreign militia as well fighting them inside this Baltic nation. Helmick had asked for both the British 2nd Infantry & the US 7th Infantry Divisions. He’d hoped he’d get at least one of them: two seemed too much. There was also the chance that he could have been relieved too and replaced with someone else if his unadmitted failure was deemed as much in Krakow, Brussels or Washington. In a surprise, CJTF–East released both of those light formations to the command of the XVIII Corps. They were flown by air to Central Latvia, taking the routing over the Baltic rather than above Kaliningrad or Lithuania, and sent to the fight. With such a strong reinforcement, a doubling of strength, Mattis and Petraeus demanded more from Helmick.

They wanted him to take Riga.

Liberating the Latvian capital was something which was planned for the XVIII Corps to do when in the field though not so soon. Now political pressure had been brought to bear and Helmick had the instructions to begin the process of doing that. The blockage across a significant portion of the Daugava was being bypassed by the Russians using Riga and that was a part of it yet more than that, the politics of not letting events which had happened in Daugavpils and Jēkabpils occur there drove these orders. There had been some cautionary voices which said an advance upon Riga would bring that level of violence to that larger city as seen in the smaller ones but those weren’t being listened to. The Latvian government-in-exile, plus influential NATO leaders such as Cameron and Sarkozy, won out with their demands there… though it would be American troops marching on Riga. Before the majority of the reinforcements arrived, the 82nd Airborne began that advance. There had spent long parrying attacks by Russian paratroopers who protected the way around the blockage imposed but were now sent forward. The first objective was the town of Kegums, outside of Riga. This lay downstream away to the west of Jēkabpils. The peacetime river crossing there went over a road built into the hydroelectrical plant: something that the Americans had previously bombed and the Latvians had learnt about only after the fact. The Russians had pontoon bridges up to make use of the road connections around Kegums with the 76th Guards Air Assault Division in the way. The Americans moved from their forward outposts and started driving forward. They had tanks, air cover and also an (admittedly smaller) numerical advantage over their opponents. Helmick ordered the 82nd Airborne to get to Kegums within three days and then begin to advance closer to Riga. Near to where the Russian river crossings could be found – and the many dummy crossings that the Russians had set up too – there was also Lielvārde Airbase too. The French had had Mirage-2000s there at the opening of war and taken immense losses with few personnel and fewer aircraft getting away before it was overrun. The Americans would be going for there as well.

American and Russian paratroopers were back in action again, no longer fighting skirmishes but pitched battles. Tough, bloody fighting commenced with the 82nd Airborne going forward but the 76th Guards making it costly for them.


Behind the advance, those airlifts which saw the men of two NATO light divisions arrive in Central Latvia, were used to take out people too. XVIII Corps casualties as well as Russian POWs (injured and uninjured) were flown out. Moreover, on several of those airlifts went civilians. Those who needed medical care joined many children also leaving their home country. Germany, along with Belgium and the Netherlands too, had agreed to take them when Poland said that it was unable to. During the fighting along the Daugava, civilians from outside of the liberated area had flocked inwards despite the danger. They came to the frontlines – some caught up in the crossfire – and sought safety inside. Outside, there had been cases where Russian irregulars had been raping, robbing and murdering their way across the Latvian countryside and through small towns. Professional Russian troops – along with Belorussian security troops – had previously kept things under control but as they were drawn into the fighting, others took advantage. Those internal refugees arrived where there remained gunfire through Daugavpils and Jēkabpils. Explosions occurred too as terrorists actions went on. Far fewer attacks made by Russian-speaking Latvians were taking place: it was all now ‘outsiders’. There were kidnappings of NATO soldiers by these militia and also the use of civilians as human shields. Military police units from several countries had been flown in along with what special forces soldiers could be spared but the situation was unstable and deadly.

The 6th Airmobile with its British, Belgian & Canadian contingents expanded its area of operations as the Americans moved forward. They took over some of the area of responsibility of the 82nd Airborne on the basis that that would only be temporary. Once the two newly-arriving divisions were set up, they could be handling security operations all down the liberated area allowing for the 6th Airmobile to do what it had come here to ultimately do: raid outwards against enemy forces avoiding the Daugavpils-to-Jēkabpils area. Those supply columns and rear area forces for the Twentieth Guards Army fighting down in Kaliningrad and Lithuania were all exposed should the 6th Airmobile be able to concentrate on them rather than what it had been doing. As NATO’s senior people and politicians pushed for the Americans to drive on Riga, they too wanted a major expansion of operations radiating outwards from Daugavpils. If that could have been done, it would already have been done. Those on the ground in Latvia were fighting multiple, capable opponents in several different fights. It wasn’t just the volunteer militia they engaged but Russian paratroopers and Belorussian reservists (with tanks) too. Those opponents had been beaten but not destroyed. Russia’s 345th Guards Regiment and the Belorussians had fallen back after taken major losses. Yet they hadn’t gone away. They’d dug-in with good positions found and also brought up artillery. There were no longer any missile attacks – they appeared to be out of them – but had heavy guns taken from storage. There were D-20 & D-30 howitzers and even far older (World War Two vintage) M-30s as well. The shelling was continuous with casualties caused and a great deal of harassment inflicted. The 6th Airmobile didn’t want to sit still doing nothing as it was believed from far away they were happy to. They were waiting for the opportunity to move outwards and start launching proper, full attacks using all that they had to take their enemy on. That was now going to be coming soon, once the XVIII Corps reinforcements were in-place.

The Americans had their 7th Infantry Division full of all of those reservists, recent retirees and also officers on staff courses or leave etc. They came in first and into Jēkabpils. There was an eagerness from many within the division to get into the fight though some others were more cautious. They knew that the 7th Infantry still needed more of a work-up as a complete division but there was no longer any more time to do that. The orders were for them to take over the liberated zone which the 82nd Airborne had held – relieving the Belgians from the 6th Airmobile which had come north temporarily – and also aid that other, more experienced division in moving on Kegums & Lielvārde first before Riga afterwards. As to the British, they flew into both airheads at Daugavpils and Jēkabpils. The 2nd Infantry Division was formed around units from the Territorial Army though its components weren’t exclusively British reservists nor even only Brits. There was a battalion of British Army regulars in addition to Canadians from their Primary Reserve as well. Still, there were a lot of TA men which came to Latvia though and, like the Americans with the 7th Infantry, they came ‘light’ too. The 2nd Infantry had only one regiment (battalion-sized) of light armoured vehicles and just one other regiment (again, a battalion in reality) of howitzers. Their task wasn’t though to take place in mobile warfare, thankfully, but rather the security and defensive missions that the 6th Airmobile had been undertaking. For the TA soldiers arriving in Latvia, this was going to be an experience indeed.




2nd UK Infantry Division
Divisional combat assets:
The Queen’s Own Yeomanry (with Scimitars)
The 103rd Regiment Royal Artillery (with L-118)
15th Infantry Brigade:
1st Battalion, the Princess Louise’s Fusiliers (Canadians)
3rd Battalion, the Royal Anglian Regiment
4th Battalion, the Yorkshire Regiment
42nd Infantry Brigade:
2nd Battalion, the Duke of Lancaster’s Regiment (regulars)
4th Battalion, the Duke of Lancaster’s Regiment
4th Battalion, the Mercian Regiment
51st Infantry Brigade:
3rd Battalion, the Royal Welsh
6th Battalion, the Royal Regiment of Scotland
7th Battalion, the Rifles

[James G]

May 19, 2019 1:31:19 GMT Brky2020 said:

May 18, 2019 16:37:19 GMT James G said:

Good choices there.

I tried to account for the possibility some current OTL actors would have died during the war, either in action or behind the lines. 

A guy like Jason Isaacs would move up the ladder in that scenario, and he seems to have the chops to play the Spetsnaz role.

The Rock came to mind as the quintessential action hero type who could find himself in either a really good action movie or a clusterf*ck this movie appears to have become. I had trouble coming up with a female lead, but figured Blake Lively might have been cast as the girlfriend who could take care of herself with bombs and bullets all around her. 

I think, despite the strong contenders, you win the prize here.
See lordroel for your reward though: I am only a lowly Captain while he is a mighty Admiral.

[arrowiv]

I wonder what the post-war Baltics would be like and their attitudes toward NATO?

[James G]

May 20, 2019 21:00:48 GMT arrowiv said:

I wonder what the post-war Baltics would be like and their attitudes toward NATO?

The governments in exile are small with an important but ultimately neglible voice in NATO decision making. They are watching their countries being bombed by NATO.
If they get liberated they will be grateful but know at what cost that came at.

[raunchel]

May 20, 2019 21:18:46 GMT James G said:

May 20, 2019 21:00:48 GMT arrowiv said:

I wonder what the post-war Baltics would be like and their attitudes toward NATO?

The governments in exile are small with an important but ultimately neglible voice in NATO decision making. They are watching their countries being bombed by NATO.
If they get liberated they will be grateful but know at what cost that came at.

I think that it will be a bit like with how Western European countries looked at the US after the war. They will be incredibly happy with their NATO membership, and there are more than enough Russian atrocities to silence any opposing forces. Although I do fear for the Russian minorities. In their position, I would be getting ready to get out.

[lordroel]

May 20, 2019 19:39:50 GMT James G said:

May 19, 2019 1:31:19 GMT Brky2020 said:

I tried to account for the possibility some current OTL actors would have died during the war, either in action or behind the lines. 

A guy like Jason Isaacs would move up the ladder in that scenario, and he seems to have the chops to play the Spetsnaz role.

The Rock came to mind as the quintessential action hero type who could find himself in either a really good action movie or a clusterf*ck this movie appears to have become. I had trouble coming up with a female lead, but figured Blake Lively might have been cast as the girlfriend who could take care of herself with bombs and bullets all around her. 

I think, despite the strong contenders, you win the prize here.
See lordroel for your reward though: I am only a lowly Captain while he is a mighty Admiral.

Do not think both you, James G nor Brky2020 need any rewards, both of you already have the Grand Order of the master writer while i have not.

[James G]

May 20, 2019 23:58:50 GMT raunchel said:

May 20, 2019 21:18:46 GMT James G said:

The governments in exile are small with an important but ultimately neglible voice in NATO decision making. They are watching their countries being bombed by NATO.
If they get liberated they will be grateful but know at what cost that came at.

I think that it will be a bit like with how Western European countries looked at the US after the war. They will be incredibly happy with their NATO membership, and there are more than enough Russian atrocities to silence any opposing forces. Although I do fear for the Russian minorities. In their position, I would be getting ready to get out.

They'll need financial aid, medical help, power re-established, transport links repaired, clearing of EOD and the list goes on.
Oh yep. Minorities will be a HUGE issue. There were those there and those who arrived. The governments will want them gone.

[forcon]

One Hundred and Sixty One

Throughout the early 2000s, when Iran had been viewed as a principle threat to the United States, American commandos with the Joint Special Operations Command had operated in Peru, carrying surveillance against members of Iran's Quds Force supposedly operating in that region of the world.

Now that Russian Spetsnaz troops had been discovered operating there, JSOC was to return to Peru, this time with much more firepower at its disposal.

US intelligence agencies had a strong presence in Latin America, and had done for decades now. The drug trade had been a long-term focus of numerous organisations, as had the appearance (perceived or real) of Islamic extremist organisations using the region as a staging area for future attacks against the United States.

The initial missions of Operation Southern Comfort, in which Green Berets with the 7th Special Forces Group as well as Navy SEALs had struck at Russian Spetsnaz staging areas in Mexico and Nicaragua to close those rat lines were viewed in a spectacularly negative light by governments in the region. Even so, those same governments were desperate to avoid invoking the wrath of the United States Armed Forces. American commandos were sent into Peru following the incident in the Panama Canal, with the objective of shutting down the rat lines once and for all.

Navy SEALs, men from the same squadron that had prevented the attempted strike on the Panama Canal, mounted a hasty and successful operation against the small airfield which had been used to smuggle the Spetsnaz into Panama. Using MH-6 'Little Bird' helicopters, the Americans struck and rapidly captured the airfield, finding only a small SVR intelligence team present there as a support unit.

A far bloodier battle occurred in Peru, where those Russian commandos had originally landed.

The Americans had operated there before in the early 2000s against possible Iranian activities. Delta Force operators - the SEALs were still working in Panama - launched the strike, supported by members of the 7th Special Forces Group.

Nearly fifty men aboard four Black Hawk helicopters were involved in total in the raid. One chopper was struck by am RPG on approach, crash-landing outside the perimeter of the enemy airfield and denying the assault force a quarter of its assets.

Nevertheless, the remainder of the strike team pursued the assault, which resulted in a heavy firefight in the Peruvian countryside. By the time the dust had settled, two American commandos and five Russians were dead, with seven more in American custody.

Success had been met in closing the rat lines, but Latin America was soon to be up in arms about the numerous incursions across the continent by American troops.

Mexico remained compliant in cooperating with the United States. The border in Texas had been closed, not by order of President Biden, but instead by the governor of that state. The National Guard’s 36th Infantry Division had been used for that task, at least what units of it were not currently deployed overseas. Mexico City wanted trade relations with the United States to remain the same, and it was true that the Mexican security apparatus had failed to even notice the incursion onto its soil of Russian commandos, let alone do anything to stop it.

Nicaragua and Peru were less receptive. Despite being eager to avoid anything that could escalate into open conflict, the governments of both of those countries were furious at the violations of their airspace and territorial integrity by American commandos. Navy SEALs had struck in Nicaragua, and then both naval commandos and Army units had attacked Russian troops in Peru. It was in this country that the Central Intelligence Agency suspected Russian forces were operating with government permission, or at least with the tacit support of certain local authorities.

Questions were raised as to why this could possibly be the case, with even Venezuela and Cuba, with their long-term pro-Russian relations, had failed to act so recklessly, and ultimately there was little the United States could do beyond the continuation of the use of Special Operations Command, and it’s smaller Joint Special Operations Command units.

The Administration in DC was hesitant to get further involved in Latin America, even with the recent engagements between US and Russian troops. There was still a political side to this, with the US needing to maintain friendly relations with many of those nations south of the border. Furthermore, what had been termed Operation Global Reach was causing much controversy in other neutral countries, with assassinations, shootings, and bombings occurring all around the world as American and Russian spies and commandos fought each other from Vienna to Singapore.

A train of thought was emerging that if this continued, neutral nations who might play a part in peace negotiations further down the line would begin to see the United States in an aggressive, or even imperialistic light. The deaths of civilians at the hands of both Russian and American intelligence operations throughout the neutral world only furthered this sentiment; American incursions in Latin America were only to be carried out if they were of absolute importance.

[dunois]

May 21, 2019 6:54:12 GMT James G said:

May 20, 2019 23:58:50 GMT raunchel said:

I think that it will be a bit like with how Western European countries looked at the US after the war. They will be incredibly happy with their NATO membership, and there are more than enough Russian atrocities to silence any opposing forces. Although I do fear for the Russian minorities. In their position, I would be getting ready to get out.

They'll need financial aid, medical help, power re-established, transport links repaired, clearing of EOD and the list goes on.
Oh yep. Minorities will be a HUGE issue. There were those there and those who arrived. The governments will want them gone.

If all the Russian minorities are expelled, Estonia and Latvia will suffer huge losses to their workforces. Especially as "replacements" cant come from elsewhere.

A triage of sorts will likely be in place e.g.
Category 1: Proven collaborators
Category 2: Non-citizens without Latvian/Estonian nationality.
Category 3: Naturaliased Russians

Consequences will be less severe as you go down.

[James G]

May 21, 2019 21:29:13 GMT dunois said:

May 21, 2019 6:54:12 GMT James G said:

They'll need financial aid, medical help, power re-established, transport links repaired, clearing of EOD and the list goes on.
Oh yep. Minorities will be a HUGE issue. There were those there and those who arrived. The governments will want them gone.

If all the Russian minorities are expelled, Estonia and Latvia will suffer huge losses to their workforces. Especially as "replacements" cant come from elsewhere.

A triage of sorts will likely be in place e.g.
Category 1: Proven collaborators
Category 2: Non-citizens without Latvian/Estonian nationality.
Category 3: Naturaliased Russians

Consequences will be less severe as you go down.

Overall, collaboration has been rather limited. These are EU & NATO countries and ethnic Russians didn't flock to the invaders. The perception of collaboration is more than reality.
I agree with what you say about the consequences economically of trying to expel 'Russians' but there is also the legality of doing so. It will stink of ethnic cleansing to many elsewhere, those who the Baltic States will need to help them recover. Moreover it really wasn't those Russian speakers which started the war in any conceivable way to get the blame for that.