Vichy stays recognised

[mullauna]

WI Vichy stays recognised as the French government?

[lordroel]

Feb 7, 2019 16:01:54 GMT mullauna said:

WI Vichy stays recognised as the French government?

You mean noGerman invasion of Vichy France in 1942 during operation Case Anton
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[stevep]

Feb 7, 2019 16:01:54 GMT mullauna said:

WI Vichy stays recognised as the French government?

  Damn I had something posted but the system fouled up when I tried to post a link.  Trying again.

  Presuming we still have an allied victory this requires Vichy to switch sides at a suitable point.  I can think of two possibilities.

a)  That there is no Operation Torch, or possibly Darlan isn't present and the Vichy forces more generally oppose the allied landings.  Then that Hitler doesn't overrun the rump French state but it switches sides shortly after the Normandy landings.  However I think this is more likely.

b)  That things go pretty much as OTL with Admiral_Darlan, being present and ordering the Vichy forces in N Africa to cease opposing the Germans, Hitler occupying rump Vichy as OTL and then Darlan not being assassinated two months later.  In this case with him having the support of the majority of the French forces outside France and possibly a lot in occupied France the allies might recognise him as the leader of a Vichy in exile.  Possibly forcing some sort of coalition between his forces and de Gaule's Free French in which the latter would be the junior partner.  There are some suggestions his presence in N Africa at the time was no accident and that he had been in discussions with the Americans for some time, although whether this is accurate I don't know.

  If Vichy is the formal government of France after the defeat of Germany then its going to be more conservative but also probably even more divided as the former FF as well as the communists will be unhappy with the situation.  At worse you might see a lot of violent unrest or even a civil war similar to that in Greece in 44/45.  This may or may not prompt a Soviet attempt to invade western Europe but probably not but France could end up as politically unstable as Italy for a while at least. 

  Also possibly France might not get a share in the occupation of Germany.  Their zone was by some way the smallest but this could mean that the borders of the other zones were slightly different different or simply that the US absorbs the OTL French zone with possibly the border with the British zone being a bit further south.  However not sure how much difference this might make.

  Another point that comes to mind, if say  Darlan led French is less trusted, France might not be a permanent member of the UN security council and have a veto.

  Presuming it isn't too gravely weakened a Vichy France is probably going to be more conservative and also more determined to hold onto its empire.  So expect a longer and bloodier 1st Vietnam conflict and Algerian war.  At some point something could snap and a fairly dramatic change occur.  Not necessarily a communist government but a fairly left socialist one.  Which would probably emphasis social programmes and withdrawal from empire but at what stage and with what effects would be uncertain.

  Anyway an interesting idea but I suspect Vichy surviving an allied victory is unlikely.