mcnutt
Chief petty officer
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Post by mcnutt on Apr 21, 2019 12:30:42 GMT
OTL Claus Von Stauffenberg, who had volunteered to assassinate Hitler and then give the signal to being the planned coup, had only time to activate one of the two bombs he brought with him to the meeting, where Hitler would be in attendance.
Activating the bomb was difficult for Von Stauffenberg, because he had lost his right hand. He was called into the meeting before he could deal with the second bomb. ITTL he has his aide, who had two good hands, do the bombs. The aide puts them in Stauffenberg’s brief case and takes them to him.
Stauffenberg leaves the briefcase with the bombs behind as he leaves the meeting. ITTL he does not leave them next to the heavy wood leg of the table, which OTL cushioned the blast. He sees the explosion destroy the building and correctly assumes that the force of two bombs has killed everyone, including Hitler.
The coup fails, the SS arrests the plotters and Heinrich Himmler uses the emergency to take power. This starts a power struggle with the SS cracking down on opponents. This inspires German officers on the Western front to surrender.The most prominent defector is Erwin Rommel.
This causes chaos in the German military.The WAllies move quickly by November 17, 1944 they have surrounded Berlin. By December 3, 1944, they have taken Warsaw. Prague falls to the WAllies on December 4, 1944. On December 9, 1944, Himmler is overthrown and executed. The Provisional Government surrenders on December 16, 1944, VE Day.
The USSR declares war on Japan on March 16, 1945 and begins their invasion of China. The WAllied European veterans arrive in the Pacific front in April 1945. Okinawa falls on May 22, 1945. Japan suffers even more with the stepped up bombing and blockade, Hirohito surrenders on August 3, 1945.
The atom bomb remains a military secret until the Soviets announce they have developed one in 1949. There are other changes. In 1946, there is a not so velvet divorce, when Soviet occupied Slovakia breaks away from Czechoslavika. Poland is divided between its WAllied and Soviet occupied zones.
The London Protocal that sets ups the occupation zones of Germany is signed on September 12, 1944 as it was OTL. The Soviet Zone becomes East Germany. There is a Berlin Airlift and Berlin Wall, the big difference is that because East Germany is surrounded by free nations, the Soviets have the extra expense of supplying their troops in East Germany by ship.
Czechzia and West Poland are the frontline NATO nations.They are the home to most of the US military bases. If you are the child of a German and an American service veteran, you probably have a different heritage.
In 1946,the Soviets expel Jiang’s government which flees to Taiwan. This affects American politics. No one asks the question Who lost China? The Soviet occupied People’s Republic of China is a satellite. The Soviets veto the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. To help wean the Chinese off of Soviet aid, the Soviets encourage Deng Xiopeng’s reforms. China’s economy booms. There is no playing the China card. US China relations open up under Reagan, after corporations lobby for the right to cash in on the lucrative China trade.
The collapse of the Soviet Empire happens much the same ITTL as it did OTL. For example, in 1978, the courageous Cardinal from East Poland becomes Pope John Paul II. In 1979,he visits Poland. The people of East Poland organize the Pope’s stay without the involvement of the Communist Party. This encourages them to challenge the system. In 1980, a strike spreads across the country. A nationwide independent union called Solidarity emerges. The leadership is different then OTL. Lech Walesa is a citizen of West Poland ITTL. The death of the Soviet Bloc proceeds. In 1990, Germany and Poland reunited. In 1991, the Soviet Union breaks up.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Apr 21, 2019 19:14:38 GMT
Killing Hitler and the coup failing works well.
However, so much of eth rest ignores butterflies. There are many good ideas but I'm sorry, it just doesn't work.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Apr 22, 2019 10:09:37 GMT
mcnutt Some interesting ideas but not sure that the Germans in the west would surrender that quickly. At this point the allies are only just starting to break out from the Normandy beachhead after bitter fighting and lack the logistics to get so far so fast. You could see a bit more territory than OTL end up freed but the Soviets would probably still get most of their OTL empire.
Also as James say I think you ignore butterflies too much. Reagan might well never become a significant politician while if the Soviets are so openly driving a communist control of China their likely to clash with both Mao and with the west. Instead of Korea, which is likely to be totally under Soviet control, you could see a much greater war in China from say about 47/48 onwards probably leading to a partitioned China.
If that doesn't happen and you did get a western Poland and Czech republic isolating E Germany the Soviets would probably have transit rights to the latter similarly to those the west had to W Berlin. In which case your unlikely to have a blockade of W Berlin as the allies can respond by cutting links through W Poland and threatening a blockade by sea of E Germany. Plus you could at this point see an anti-Soviet uprising in E Germany and while it is probably going to be bloodily suppressed in such circumstances this is another possibly trigger for another war between the two blocs.
You may well never see John Paul II rise to prominence, especially since that in part resulted from the sudden death of his predecessor.
However an assassination which works in term of killing Hitler but sees the generals coup fail is definitely different to the more standard generals win scenario and I suspect more given the power of the Nazi party and divisions in the army by that point. Likely to see the European war end a bit quicker, which will definitely result in butterflies, but I suspect not as early as you think. Might see a British/allied liberation of Malaya and parts of DEI before the Japanese surrender as a result for instance, which is going to complicate the situation in the future Indonesia.
Steve
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Apr 23, 2019 7:08:04 GMT
The Russians are not going to get Germany as an enclave.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 23, 2019 11:40:26 GMT
The Russians are not going to get Germany as an enclave.
I'm not so sure. Even with smaller western losses and to a degree Soviet as well probably the Soviets will have done even more of the fighting while the western powers have glorified the Soviets as gallant allies. Especially with FDR in charge of the US its going to be difficult not to allow a Soviet share in occupying Germany politically while there will be a fear that a refusal to do so will prompt a war with them. Since the US also wants Soviet aid against the Japanese that's another reason why their unlikely to refuse Stalin on this issue.
What you might have is that Poland, east to say the Curzon line, is united under western control with the Soviets withdrawing to the territories to the west but getting an E Germany under their control. [Which might be bigger than OTL as without loss of so much eastern lands and with it in the western sphere Stalin isn't going to push for Poland gaining so much German territory. So they might get E Prussia say and Pomerania to get them a secure coastline but not Silesia. Also the Soviets will have access rights through Poland and probably limits on western forces in Poland.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Apr 24, 2019 5:53:15 GMT
The Russians are not going to get Germany as an enclave.
I'm not so sure. Even with smaller western losses and to a degree Soviet as well probably the Soviets will have done even more of the fighting while the western powers have glorified the Soviets as gallant allies. Especially with FDR in charge of the US its going to be difficult not to allow a Soviet share in occupying Germany politically while there will be a fear that a refusal to do so will prompt a war with them. Since the US also wants Soviet aid against the Japanese that's another reason why their unlikely to refuse Stalin on this issue.
What you might have is that Poland, east to say the Curzon line, is united under western control with the Soviets withdrawing to the territories to the west but getting an E Germany under their control. [Which might be bigger than OTL as without loss of so much eastern lands and with it in the western sphere Stalin isn't going to push for Poland gaining so much German territory. So they might get E Prussia say and Pomerania to get them a secure coastline but not Silesia. Also the Soviets will have access rights through Poland and probably limits on western forces in Poland.
*brainwave* What if Stalin - who hated Poles more than the BNP - decided to fuck the Poles over and give the East Germans East and West Prussia, Pomerania, Silesia, and all the other pre-Versailles Prussian territory? This has benefits for Stalin: * E Germany is contiguous with Soviet Russia, so no naval resupply is needed. * W Poland is now very small since Prussia has just popped back from the dead. * E Poland is mostly unaffected by Zombie Prussia. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Apr 24, 2019 15:08:08 GMT
I'm not so sure. Even with smaller western losses and to a degree Soviet as well probably the Soviets will have done even more of the fighting while the western powers have glorified the Soviets as gallant allies. Especially with FDR in charge of the US its going to be difficult not to allow a Soviet share in occupying Germany politically while there will be a fear that a refusal to do so will prompt a war with them. Since the US also wants Soviet aid against the Japanese that's another reason why their unlikely to refuse Stalin on this issue.
What you might have is that Poland, east to say the Curzon line, is united under western control with the Soviets withdrawing to the territories to the west but getting an E Germany under their control. [Which might be bigger than OTL as without loss of so much eastern lands and with it in the western sphere Stalin isn't going to push for Poland gaining so much German territory. So they might get E Prussia say and Pomerania to get them a secure coastline but not Silesia. Also the Soviets will have access rights through Poland and probably limits on western forces in Poland.
*brainwave* What if Stalin - who hated Poles more than the BNP - decided to fuck the Poles over and give the East Germans East and West Prussia, Pomerania, Silesia, and all the other pre-Versailles Prussian territory? This has benefits for Stalin: * E Germany is contiguous with Soviet Russia, so no naval resupply is needed. * W Poland is now very small since Prussia has just popped back from the dead. * E Poland is mostly unaffected by Zombie Prussia.
MT
He could try and I expect Poland not to get all the land it did OTL. However in this case he can't afford to upset the western powers too much and given he's demanding a lot of land from pre-war Poland, a member of the allied powers so I can't see that sort of demand being accepted. At the very least Poland will get some compensation for lands lost in the east and a route to the sea. It probably wouldn't get most/all of Silesia or E Prussia but its likely to get at least one of those.
Steve
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