Miscellaneous, Non-Frivolous ASB Ideas

[Zyobot]

As a cross-time presidential election proposal that interests me as of late, ‘1936 FDR Vs. 1956 Dwight Eisenhower’.

[Zyobot]

‘1910 Russian Empire To 1950’.

[stevep]

Jul 4, 2020 21:52:35 GMT Zyobot said:

‘1910 Russian Empire To 1950’.

  Much of the world, especially the west, breathes a deep, deep sigh of relief and N Korea won't be attacking the south, or if it already has its probably going to be hammered more than OTL.  There will be problems with Soviet forces outside the borders but their now isolated and cut off from supplies and can't expect any help from the 1910 empire - both because it will be diametrically opposed to them and because it wouldn't have the capacity if it wanted to.  Germany gets reunited but the situation with Poland will cause some questions, as your got about halve of 1950 Poland - most of which is former German territory but its historical heartland - including Warsaw and Krakow are now part of 1910 imperial Russia.  Expect a conflict there, although how it ends up I wouldn't know.  Plus you would have the Kaliningrad enclave and areas such as S Sakhalin and the Kurils as remnants of Soviet territory.

  Otherwise much as your earlier scenario in terms of the world has to adjust to the dramatic change in the Russian empire.  One advantage for the west would be its not currently so dependent on Russia oil and gas so there wouldn't be the same economic shock.  Still issues with what to do about an autocratic state centred on Russia including issues of disease and the like.  However because there's only 40 years separation the technological and social gulf is less and since its replaced the far, far more threatening Soviet empire the west is going to be a lot more relaxed about the issue.

  Since you included the empire its going to also include the Pale so there are a lot of Jews suffering persecution here which is likely to cause more tension in the ME as many possibly take the opportunity to escape to Israel.  Since the latter is absorbing large numbers of Jews being expelled from Muslim lands its going to come under a lot of pressure while at least some Arab states might seek to attack before Israel integrates this new supply of manpower and hence becomes potentially more threatening militarily.  There are also a lot more Poles still in what's now Belarus and also Ukrainians generally without Stalin's forced collectivisation and mass murder the accompanied it.

  How 1910 Russia reacts to the new world it finds itself in and the challenges, including a super power USA and considerably different social changes I don't know.  Likely to be some difficult times ahead.

  One possible wild card here would be if Mao invaded Russia to 'restore' communism'.  He would be mad to try but given his egomania and how threatened he might feel with the primary communist power suddenly disappearing plus the weakness of the 'new' Russia he now faces he might try it.

  If there is no new war in E Asia, either Korean or Chinese based it would be good for Britain.  After a very hard 5 years of seeking to rebuild while paying off foreign debts the country was just about seeing the light at the end of the tunnel when the Korean war and resultant military costs put new strains on the economy.  Avoiding that and ideally also seeing a build-down in Europe with NATO reducing forces as the threat has gone you could see a better upswing in the British economy compared to OTL. 

  One issue here is how people feel about a reunited Germany in 1950, especially with a very weak Russia to its east and Poland with very compromised borders.  There would still be great fear of a new wave of German revanchism especially considering many Germans might seek to reverse the 1945 changes to the eastern border.

  Anyway the initial ideas that come to mind.

[lordroel]

Jul 5, 2020 9:35:30 GMT stevep said:

Jul 4, 2020 21:52:35 GMT Zyobot said:

‘1910 Russian Empire To 1950’.

  Much of the world, especially the west, breathes a deep, deep sigh of relief and N Korea won't be attacking the south, or if it already has its probably going to be hammered more than OTL.  There will be problems with Soviet forces outside the borders but their now isolated and cut off from supplies and can't expect any help from the 1910 empire - both because it will be diametrically opposed to them and because it wouldn't have the capacity if it wanted to.  Germany gets reunited but the situation with Poland will cause some questions, as your got about halve of 1950 Poland - most of which is former German territory but its historical heartland - including Warsaw and Krakow are now part of 1910 imperial Russia.  Expect a conflict there, although how it ends up I wouldn't know.  Plus you would have the Kaliningrad enclave and areas such as S Sakhalin and the Kurils as remnants of Soviet territory.

  Otherwise much as your earlier scenario in terms of the world has to adjust to the dramatic change in the Russian empire.  One advantage for the west would be its not currently so dependent on Russia oil and gas so there wouldn't be the same economic shock.  Still issues with what to do about an autocratic state centred on Russia including issues of disease and the like.  However because there's only 40 years separation the technological and social gulf is less and since its replaced the far, far more threatening Soviet empire the west is going to be a lot more relaxed about the issue.

  Since you included the empire its going to also include the Pale so there are a lot of Jews suffering persecution here which is likely to cause more tension in the ME as many possibly take the opportunity to escape to Israel.  Since the latter is absorbing large numbers of Jews being expelled from Muslim lands its going to come under a lot of pressure while at least some Arab states might seek to attack before Israel integrates this new supply of manpower and hence becomes potentially more threatening militarily.  There are also a lot more Poles still in what's now Belarus and also Ukrainians generally without Stalin's forced collectivisation and mass murder the accompanied it.

  How 1910 Russia reacts to the new world it finds itself in and the challenges, including a super power USA and considerably different social changes I don't know.  Likely to be some difficult times ahead.

  One possible wild card here would be if Mao invaded Russia to 'restore' communism'.  He would be mad to try but given his egomania and how threatened he might feel with the primary communist power suddenly disappearing plus the weakness of the 'new' Russia he now faces he might try it.

  If there is no new war in E Asia, either Korean or Chinese based it would be good for Britain.  After a very hard 5 years of seeking to rebuild while paying off foreign debts the country was just about seeing the light at the end of the tunnel when the Korean war and resultant military costs put new strains on the economy.  Avoiding that and ideally also seeing a build-down in Europe with NATO reducing forces as the threat has gone you could see a better upswing in the British economy compared to OTL. 

  One issue here is how people feel about a reunited Germany in 1950, especially with a very weak Russia to its east and Poland with very compromised borders.  There would still be great fear of a new wave of German revanchism especially considering many Germans might seek to reverse the 1945 changes to the eastern border.

  Anyway the initial ideas that come to mind.

Do not know how many Soviet Forces where in Germany in 1950, but looking at the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany Wikipedia article, i can see at least 5 Soviet armies (not all on full strength it seems) who where in East Germany in 1950.

Checking Google some more i found this CIA PDF about Soviet Forces in East Germany 1950, you need to go to page 10 and you will see how much the Soviets had in East Germany in 1950.

[stevep]

Jul 5, 2020 10:08:15 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 5, 2020 9:35:30 GMT stevep said:

  Much of the world, especially the west, breathes a deep, deep sigh of relief and N Korea won't be attacking the south, or if it already has its probably going to be hammered more than OTL.  There will be problems with Soviet forces outside the borders but their now isolated and cut off from supplies and can't expect any help from the 1910 empire - both because it will be diametrically opposed to them and because it wouldn't have the capacity if it wanted to.  Germany gets reunited but the situation with Poland will cause some questions, as your got about halve of 1950 Poland - most of which is former German territory but its historical heartland - including Warsaw and Krakow are now part of 1910 imperial Russia.  Expect a conflict there, although how it ends up I wouldn't know.  Plus you would have the Kaliningrad enclave and areas such as S Sakhalin and the Kurils as remnants of Soviet territory.

  Otherwise much as your earlier scenario in terms of the world has to adjust to the dramatic change in the Russian empire.  One advantage for the west would be its not currently so dependent on Russia oil and gas so there wouldn't be the same economic shock.  Still issues with what to do about an autocratic state centred on Russia including issues of disease and the like.  However because there's only 40 years separation the technological and social gulf is less and since its replaced the far, far more threatening Soviet empire the west is going to be a lot more relaxed about the issue.

  Since you included the empire its going to also include the Pale so there are a lot of Jews suffering persecution here which is likely to cause more tension in the ME as many possibly take the opportunity to escape to Israel.  Since the latter is absorbing large numbers of Jews being expelled from Muslim lands its going to come under a lot of pressure while at least some Arab states might seek to attack before Israel integrates this new supply of manpower and hence becomes potentially more threatening militarily.  There are also a lot more Poles still in what's now Belarus and also Ukrainians generally without Stalin's forced collectivisation and mass murder the accompanied it.

  How 1910 Russia reacts to the new world it finds itself in and the challenges, including a super power USA and considerably different social changes I don't know.  Likely to be some difficult times ahead.

  One possible wild card here would be if Mao invaded Russia to 'restore' communism'.  He would be mad to try but given his egomania and how threatened he might feel with the primary communist power suddenly disappearing plus the weakness of the 'new' Russia he now faces he might try it.

  If there is no new war in E Asia, either Korean or Chinese based it would be good for Britain.  After a very hard 5 years of seeking to rebuild while paying off foreign debts the country was just about seeing the light at the end of the tunnel when the Korean war and resultant military costs put new strains on the economy.  Avoiding that and ideally also seeing a build-down in Europe with NATO reducing forces as the threat has gone you could see a better upswing in the British economy compared to OTL. 

  One issue here is how people feel about a reunited Germany in 1950, especially with a very weak Russia to its east and Poland with very compromised borders.  There would still be great fear of a new wave of German revanchism especially considering many Germans might seek to reverse the 1945 changes to the eastern border.

  Anyway the initial ideas that come to mind.

Do not know how many Soviet Forces where in Germany in 1950, but looking at the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany Wikipedia article, i can see at least 5 Soviet armies (not all on full strength it seems) who where in East Germany in 1950.

Checking Google some more i found this CIA PDF about Soviet Forces in East Germany 1950, you need to go to page 10 and you will see how much the Soviets had in East Germany in 1950.

  Its going to be a fair chunk and there are probably others in western Poland and Czechoslovakia as well as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, plus likely units at sea.  Along with satellite forces in those countries.  However their now in a very vulnerable position with no support and a less than friendly population in many cases.  Its going to be an awkward question what happens to them as they won't be welcome back in 1910 Russia and I doubt they would all fit into Kaliningrad which is the only substantial part of 1950 USSR left I think.  [S Sakhalin island is larger but barren and sub arctic so that isn't really an alternative option for them.  It might be that some of the local communist party establishments seek to keep them on to help the rulers stay in power but how long that could last even assuming that the west does nothing would be a question.

[lordroel]

Jul 5, 2020 11:51:09 GMT stevep said:

Jul 5, 2020 10:08:15 GMT lordroel said:

Do not know how many Soviet Forces where in Germany in 1950, but looking at the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany Wikipedia article, i can see at least 5 Soviet armies (not all on full strength it seems) who where in East Germany in 1950.

Checking Google some more i found this CIA PDF about Soviet Forces in East Germany 1950, you need to go to page 10 and you will see how much the Soviets had in East Germany in 1950.

  Its going to be a fair chunk and there are probably others in western Poland and Czechoslovakia as well as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, plus likely units at sea.  Along with satellite forces in those countries.  However their now in a very vulnerable position with no support and a less than friendly population in many cases.  Its going to be an awkward question what happens to them as they won't be welcome back in 1910 Russia and I doubt they would all fit into Kaliningrad which is the only substantial part of 1950 USSR left I think.  [S Sakhalin island is larger but barren and sub arctic so that isn't really an alternative option for them.  It might be that some of the local communist party establishments seek to keep them on to help the rulers stay in power but how long that could last even assuming that the west does nothing would be a question.

Is Poland not part of Russia in 1910 ore only Eastern Poland. 

[Zyobot]

Jul 5, 2020 11:54:04 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 5, 2020 11:51:09 GMT stevep said:

  Its going to be a fair chunk and there are probably others in western Poland and Czechoslovakia as well as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, plus likely units at sea.  Along with satellite forces in those countries.  However their now in a very vulnerable position with no support and a less than friendly population in many cases.  Its going to be an awkward question what happens to them as they won't be welcome back in 1910 Russia and I doubt they would all fit into Kaliningrad which is the only substantial part of 1950 USSR left I think.  [S Sakhalin island is larger but barren and sub arctic so that isn't really an alternative option for them.  It might be that some of the local communist party establishments seek to keep them on to help the rulers stay in power but how long that could last even assuming that the west does nothing would be a question.

Is Poland not part of Russia in 1910 ore only Eastern Poland. 

My impression is that it reigned over eastern Poland rather than the whole of Poland, which a comparison of maps seems to corroborate in my case.

[stevep]

Jul 5, 2020 11:54:04 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 5, 2020 11:51:09 GMT stevep said:

  Its going to be a fair chunk and there are probably others in western Poland and Czechoslovakia as well as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, plus likely units at sea.  Along with satellite forces in those countries.  However their now in a very vulnerable position with no support and a less than friendly population in many cases.  Its going to be an awkward question what happens to them as they won't be welcome back in 1910 Russia and I doubt they would all fit into Kaliningrad which is the only substantial part of 1950 USSR left I think.  [S Sakhalin island is larger but barren and sub arctic so that isn't really an alternative option for them.  It might be that some of the local communist party establishments seek to keep them on to help the rulers stay in power but how long that could last even assuming that the west does nothing would be a question.

Is Poland not part of Russia in 1910 ore only Eastern Poland. 

  lordroel ,

  At the time Poland was partitioned between Germany, Russia and Austria.  I was wrong in that Krakow will still be part of 1950 Poland as along with Galicia it was under Austria control in 1910 and hence unaffected by the ISOT.  However the bulk of the Polish heartland, as well as their eastern diaspora were under Russia rule and hence are now part of 1910 imperial Russia.  See Poland in 1910 for details, where the light blue and light green are now from 1910.  This includes Warsaw and Lublin for instance.  Its actually a map of how the country was occupied during the war but gives an idea of how the country is divided.

  Trying it as an image to see if this works. .  Damn that didn't work and now it won't let me delete/edit it!!  Can you help please lordroel, ?

  1950 Poland is going to be the Galacia region in the south, which was Austrian ruled in 1910 and those territories that were German ruled, to the north and west.  One complication here is that apart from Posen and parts of W Prussia those areas were overwhelmingly German in population until the forced movement of those people in 1945 only 5 years before.  As such you could see some of those people seeking to return or possibly even a unified German government possibly supporting this move, perhaps with the suggestion of having Poland go back to something like its 1919 borders with a large region to the east.  However so soon after WWII this is unlikely to be accepted by many, especially among the German neighbours.  In fact with a unified Germany, even under the current borders there's likely to be concern about its potential and intent.

  Steve

[Zyobot]

‘1900 People React To 20th Century’. Which—as a reminder—lasted from January 1st, 1901 to December 31st, 2000. With people having received a comprehensive knowledge of what would’ve been the next hundred years of human history, how would they tend to respond and what butterflies would ensue as they attempt to prevent its more...problematic facets from coming to pass?

[stevep]

Jul 6, 2020 14:56:08 GMT Zyobot said:

‘1900 People React To 20th Century’. Which—as a reminder—lasted from January 1st, 1901 to December 31st, 2000. With people having received a comprehensive knowledge of what would’ve been the next hundred years of human history, how would they tend to respond and what butterflies would ensue as they attempt to prevent its more...problematic facets from coming to pass?

  Might depend on which people.  In terms of the dominant European culture, including N America, they would be shocked at the collapse of their power and many of the ideas it was based upon and also the bloodshed of the two world wars.  Especially a desire to avoid the devastation of the 1st one although in some cases that might be by 'doing it right' rather than avoiding conflict altogether.  A lot of people in the 3rd world will be enjoyed at the idea of independence but possibly horrified at the problems that plague many areas with dictatorships, bloodshed and chaos.  How people in the Russian empire, China and Japan respond could be interesting as all three go through massive changes with much destruction and bloodshed but also massive economic changes, in most cases eventually leading to considerable benefits for the ordinary population.

  Demographic, cultural and social changes will probably be more of a shock than the technological ones, at least for those people in 'advanced' economies in 1900.

[Zyobot]

‘2013 US To 1913’. Hopefully, it can prevent the Great War from taking Europe by storm, never mind all of the extra geopolitical madness that would’ve followed in the years after.

[Zyobot]

'No More Resource Scarcity'. As in, finite resources like oil reserves and whatever other raw, unprocessed commodities exist replenish speedily and without end whenever they're exploited (which bypasses normal laws of thermodynamics via infinite matter creation from nothing).

[stevep]

Jul 8, 2020 21:11:31 GMT Zyobot said:

'No More Resource Scarcity'. As in, finite resources like oil reserves and whatever other raw, unprocessed commodities exist replenish speedily and without end whenever they're exploited (which bypasses normal laws of thermodynamics via infinite matter creation from nothing).

  Serious possibly fatal problems with pollution incoming.

  Also if those products are available worldwide in infinite amounts then some areas such as the ME are going to see their domination of key production, such as oil and gas being drastically undercut.

[Zyobot]

‘2024 Presidential Election: Barack Obama Vs. Ronald Reagan’. This match-up is probably best left to ‘Politics and Current Affairs’, but I thought to suggest it here anyway. Also, ASB hand-waves normal term limits so that they can each run for another term.

[Zyobot]

'United States Force Korea To 1950'.