What if: Argentinian invasion of the Falklands in 1941

[lordroel]

What if: Argentinian invasion of the Falklands in 1941

It was September 26th 1941, Nazi Germany consolidated the siege on Stalingrad, America had yet to suffer Pearl Harbor and declare war on the Axis and the United Kingdom was suffocated under the pounding of German bombs and at sea losing tens of thousands of vital shipping. That same day in Buenos Aires an Argentine naval officer, Captain Ernesto Villanueva presented a paper titled "Army and Navy cooperation, Occupation of the Malvinas Islands", a detailed operation to militarily recover the South Atlantic archipelago occupied by the British.

The plan would see a Argentinean invasion fleet made up of two battleships, two heavy cruisers, a light cruiser, twelve torpedo boats, a tanker and mine-laying vessels. transport a battalion of Argentinean marines who would be fully armed. The thousand men could be distributed among the cruisers, battleships and torpedo boats. The marine battalion would be supplied with machine guns, mortars, artillery and communications equipment. The Argentinean Army would provide an extra 750 men in two transport vessels which would add to a force of 1.750, and if the fleet was not engaged an extra 500 could land for a total of 2.250 men. The British defense forces on the Falklands Islands would only be able to muster a group of 200 volunteers, who despite equipped with modern weapons had limited military training, possibility another 100 men from a visiting Royal Navy vessel could be added to the island defense, but overall the local defense force could at the most count with 500 men.

The flagship of the Argentinean invasion fleet would be the 30,000-ton, Great War-era battleship ARA Rivadavia, the pride of the Argentine fleet. The plan was to sail the ships into Berkeley Sound, just north of Port Stanley, and land the assault force at Cow Bay. The Argentine Marines, suggested by Villanueva report, would then “take control of Puerto Argentino (Argentine name for Port Stanley) in a surprise action.” But Villanueva’s plan encountered opposition from the army, Colonel Benjamin Rattenbach pointing out that while seizing the Falklands would pose few problems, defending the islands in the event of a British counter-invasion would prove far more difficult, if not impossible.

Picture of the Argentine dreadnought ARA Rivadavia. Although ageing, her dozen 12in guns would have made her a fearsome asset if turned against the defences of the Falkland Islands.

[kyng]

It's hard to imagine that Britain would have tried to re-take the islands by force immediately... we would've been too busy with other things at that point.

But, would we have tried to re-take them, either by force or by diplomatic means, after the war? Honestly, it seems doubtful to me. There wouldn't have been the appetite in the UK for another war; the British Empire as a whole was much larger (so the Falklands had less relative importance); and oil was a non-factor (since its existence there wasn't known at that time). There just wouldn't have been the impetus to do anything about it.

At the very most, my guess is that there would have been an inverse of the current situation - with the islands being controlled by Argentina, but claimed by the UK.

[lordroel]

Nov 23, 2019 23:25:18 GMT kyng said:

It's hard to imagine that Britain would have tried to re-take the islands by force immediately... we would've been too busy with other things at that point.

But, would we have tried to re-take them, either by force or by diplomatic means, after the war? Honestly, it seems doubtful to me. There wouldn't have been the appetite in the UK for another war; the British Empire as a whole was much larger (so the Falklands had less relative importance); and oil was a non-factor (since its existence there wasn't known at that time). There just wouldn't have been the impetus to do anything about it.

At the very most, my guess is that there would have been an inverse of the current situation - with the islands being controlled by Argentina, but claimed by the UK.

Whell i do have one advice for Argentina if they did a invasion of the Falklands in 1941, do not do it in December of that year, as it might look like they coordinated it with the Japanese, ore so i think the United States might see it.

[stevep]

Nov 23, 2019 23:25:18 GMT kyng said:

It's hard to imagine that Britain would have tried to re-take the islands by force immediately... we would've been too busy with other things at that point.

But, would we have tried to re-take them, either by force or by diplomatic means, after the war? Honestly, it seems doubtful to me. There wouldn't have been the appetite in the UK for another war; the British Empire as a whole was much larger (so the Falklands had less relative importance); and oil was a non-factor (since its existence there wasn't known at that time). There just wouldn't have been the impetus to do anything about it.

At the very most, my guess is that there would have been an inverse of the current situation - with the islands being controlled by Argentina, but claimed by the UK.

  I think that it would be seen by Britain and probably the US government as well, as a sign of Argentina siding with Germany, which wouldn't go down well in either capital.  Also it was still an important naval base, albeit not a top level one, as well as useful for helping in trying to track German raiders.  Plus it would simply be too much of a loss of face for Britain and with claims by assorted other powers at risk Britain couldn't appear to seem weak.  Not to mention I can't see any way Churchill would have allowed it to stand. 

  As the Argentinian army said in rejecting the idea taking the islands is easy but holding them against a vengeful Britain!  The Argentinian fleet is a sizeable regional one but how good is its quality in training, material and the like if Britain sends a task force.  Say a rerouted Force Z with a carrier attached and assorted escorts along with a couple of regiments of troops?  Yes they can't invade Argentina itself but being at war with each other is bad for both sides while Britain might look to 'assist' Chile or Brazil, the traditional rivals of Argentina.  And Buenos Aires would be totally insane to consider any political link with Germany as that would trigger strong American hostility.

  It could well hurt the allies as a whole as an additional burden for Britain especially.  Although possibly forces diverted for such operations might avoid OTL defeats, such as Force Z and some of the forces sent to Malaya.  However it would be a challenge I don't think Britain could turn down.  Britain would have another commitment defending the islands after their liberated and lose an economic partner of some importance but Argentina is probably going to lose much of its fleet and could end up very isolated.  Once the US is in the war then Argentina is going to have to make peace anyway as their going to face opposition from Washington as well as London.

[lordroel]

Nov 24, 2019 10:52:12 GMT stevep said:

Nov 23, 2019 23:25:18 GMT kyng said:

It's hard to imagine that Britain would have tried to re-take the islands by force immediately... we would've been too busy with other things at that point.

But, would we have tried to re-take them, either by force or by diplomatic means, after the war? Honestly, it seems doubtful to me. There wouldn't have been the appetite in the UK for another war; the British Empire as a whole was much larger (so the Falklands had less relative importance); and oil was a non-factor (since its existence there wasn't known at that time). There just wouldn't have been the impetus to do anything about it.

At the very most, my guess is that there would have been an inverse of the current situation - with the islands being controlled by Argentina, but claimed by the UK.

  I think that it would be seen by Britain and probably the US government as well, as a sign of Argentina siding with Germany, which wouldn't go down well in either capital.  Also it was still an important naval base, albeit not a top level one, as well as useful for helping in trying to track German raiders.  Plus it would simply be too much of a loss of face for Britain and with claims by assorted other powers at risk Britain couldn't appear to seem weak.  Not to mention I can't see any way Churchill would have allowed it to stand. 

  As the Argentinian army said in rejecting the idea taking the islands is easy but holding them against a vengeful Britain!  The Argentinian fleet is a sizeable regional one but how good is its quality in training, material and the like if Britain sends a task force.  Say a rerouted Force Z with a carrier attached and assorted escorts along with a couple of regiments of troops?  Yes they can't invade Argentina itself but being at war with each other is bad for both sides while Britain might look to 'assist' Chile or Brazil, the traditional rivals of Argentina.  And Buenos Aires would be totally insane to consider any political link with Germany as that would trigger strong American hostility.

  It could well hurt the allies as a whole as an additional burden for Britain especially.  Although possibly forces diverted for such operations might avoid OTL defeats, such as Force Z and some of the forces sent to Malaya.  However it would be a challenge I don't think Britain could turn down.  Britain would have another commitment defending the islands after their liberated and lose an economic partner of some importance but Argentina is probably going to lose much of its fleet and could end up very isolated.  Once the US is in the war then Argentina is going to have to make peace anyway as their going to face opposition from Washington as well as London.

It could also be just a limited Falklands War which might cause a regime change in Argentina as i doubt the people of Argentina want a war with the United Kingdom ore even the United States.

[stevep]

Nov 24, 2019 10:55:41 GMT lordroel said:

Nov 24, 2019 10:52:12 GMT stevep said:

  I think that it would be seen by Britain and probably the US government as well, as a sign of Argentina siding with Germany, which wouldn't go down well in either capital.  Also it was still an important naval base, albeit not a top level one, as well as useful for helping in trying to track German raiders.  Plus it would simply be too much of a loss of face for Britain and with claims by assorted other powers at risk Britain couldn't appear to seem weak.  Not to mention I can't see any way Churchill would have allowed it to stand. 

  As the Argentinian army said in rejecting the idea taking the islands is easy but holding them against a vengeful Britain!  The Argentinian fleet is a sizeable regional one but how good is its quality in training, material and the like if Britain sends a task force.  Say a rerouted Force Z with a carrier attached and assorted escorts along with a couple of regiments of troops?  Yes they can't invade Argentina itself but being at war with each other is bad for both sides while Britain might look to 'assist' Chile or Brazil, the traditional rivals of Argentina.  And Buenos Aires would be totally insane to consider any political link with Germany as that would trigger strong American hostility.

  It could well hurt the allies as a whole as an additional burden for Britain especially.  Although possibly forces diverted for such operations might avoid OTL defeats, such as Force Z and some of the forces sent to Malaya.  However it would be a challenge I don't think Britain could turn down.  Britain would have another commitment defending the islands after their liberated and lose an economic partner of some importance but Argentina is probably going to lose much of its fleet and could end up very isolated.  Once the US is in the war then Argentina is going to have to make peace anyway as their going to face opposition from Washington as well as London.

It could also be just a limited Falklands War which might cause a regime change in Argentina as i doubt the people of Argentina want a war with the United Kingdom ore even the United States.

  That's a possibility as well and likely the way both Britain and the US would seek to resolve the problem by encouraging a change of government.  Seizing the islands is likely to be popular initially as in 1982 but especially with the strong economic links with Britain at the time its going to be damaging to the economy and many will realise that.  Also once the islands are liberated by Britain, which I think is going to be pretty certain, then public opinion would very likely swing against the regime.

[lordroel]

Nov 24, 2019 11:00:47 GMT stevep said:

Nov 24, 2019 10:55:41 GMT lordroel said:

It could also be just a limited Falklands War which might cause a regime change in Argentina as i doubt the people of Argentina want a war with the United Kingdom ore even the United States.

  That's a possibility as well and likely the way both Britain and the US would seek to resolve the problem by encouraging a change of government.  Seizing the islands is likely to be popular initially as in 1982 but especially with the strong economic links with Britain at the time its going to be damaging to the economy and many will realise that.  Also once the islands are liberated by Britain, which I think is going to be pretty certain, then public opinion would very likely swing against the regime.

Well it is not the first time in the period of 1940 to 1945 (1943 Argentine coup d'état) there was a regime change in Argentina, so seeing Argentina loses most of its navy in a big showdown with the mighty Royal Navy and also the fear of getting attacked directly ore getting into a war with one of its neighbors, might be enough to change a government and sue for peace.

[Middlesex_Toffeeman]

Argentina doing this would be considered siding with Nazi Germany. This is a Bad Thing when America, British colonies with naval bases and French Guiana are relatively close.

[lordroel]

Dec 1, 2019 10:03:49 GMT Middlesex_Toffeeman said:

Argentina doing this would be considered siding with Nazi Germany. This is a Bad Thing when America, British colonies with naval bases and French Guiana are relatively close.

But Argentina invading the Falklands before Pearl Harbor is not going to get the United States involved, most likely Argentina will get some sanctions unplaced by the United States.

[stevep]

Dec 1, 2019 13:08:11 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 1, 2019 10:03:49 GMT Middlesex_Toffeeman said:

Argentina doing this would be considered siding with Nazi Germany. This is a Bad Thing when America, British colonies with naval bases and French Guiana are relatively close.

But Argentina invading the Falklands before Pearl Harbor is not going to get the United States involved, most likely Argentina will get some sanctions unplaced by the United States.

  I don't know.  The US realises, at least at the government level it needs to keep Britain fighting and for Argentina to attack Britain while its at war with Germany would be seen as aiding the latter.  Even if Hitler doesn't openly welcome Argentina as 'allies' and the government claims it has no contact with Berlin at all. 

  Plus Britain will respond.  The Falkland's are important as a base for naval operations in the S Atlantic, especially with German raiders active and also Britain can't afford to allow this to go without reacting.

[lordroel]

Dec 1, 2019 14:37:31 GMT stevep said:

 Even if Hitler doesn't openly welcome Argentina as 'allies' and the government claims it has no contact with Berlin at all. 

Will the United Kingdom believe that.

[stevep]

Dec 25, 2019 15:45:42 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 1, 2019 14:37:31 GMT stevep said:

 Even if Hitler doesn't openly welcome Argentina as 'allies' and the government claims it has no contact with Berlin at all. 

Will the United Kingdom believe that.

a)  Probably not

b)  Even if they do then they might say otherwise to both explain a British attack to liberate the islands and to get the US more pro-allied.

[lordroel]

Dec 25, 2019 18:33:25 GMT stevep said:

Dec 25, 2019 15:45:42 GMT lordroel said:

Will the United Kingdom believe that.

a)  Probably not

b)  Even if they do then they might say otherwise to both explain a British attack to liberate the islands and to get the US more pro-allied.

Well Brazil will watch closely what will happen next.

[markp]

Even the appearance of an Axis presence in the Americas would give FDR more clout to aide the UK. At least trade between the US/UK and Argentina would stop. In addition to other economic sanctions along with covert assistance to forces looking to trigger regime change in exchange for returning the islands. Even if none of these things return the islands to the UK. Once the war ends the US/UK would be looking to rid the world of Nazis and anything resembling Nazis. A likely scenario would be in late 1945 early 1946, it is summer in the Falklands then A US task force supported by several carriers, battleships and transports loaded with a couple of divisions of Marines show up on Argentina's doorstep with the goal of liberating a and freeing a allied colony captured by an Axis nation. If Argentina does not surrender the islands. The USMC would take them in a few days. If the Argentine fleet tried to intervene it would be promptly sunk. After that the new revolutionary government in Argentina would sue for peace.

[lordroel]

Jan 22, 2020 1:28:26 GMT markp said:

Even the appearance of an Axis presence in the Americas would give FDR more clout to aide the UK. At least trade between the US/UK and Argentina would stop. In addition to other economic sanctions along with covert assistance to forces looking to trigger regime change in exchange for returning the islands. Even if none of these things return the islands to the UK. Once the war ends the US/UK would be looking to rid the world of Nazis and anything resembling Nazis. A likely scenario would be in late 1945 early 1946, it is summer in the Falklands then A US task force supported by several carriers, battleships and transports loaded with a couple of divisions of Marines show up on Argentina's doorstep with the goal of liberating a and freeing a allied colony captured by an Axis nation. If Argentina does not surrender the islands. The USMC would take them in a few days. If the Argentine fleet tried to intervene it would be promptly sunk. After that the new revolutionary government in Argentina would sue for peace.

You think the United Kingdom and United States wait until 1945/46 do that, they could easily do it in 1943 to 1945.