1bigrich
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Post by 1bigrich on Feb 14, 2020 19:43:07 GMT
Also did they still have radio silence, how would Kimmel be able to get into contact with Lexington without breaking his own radio silence .True. He might be able to have Hawaii broadcast something after he sorties, but to your point, direct communication would risk revealing he was out. Regards, |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 14, 2020 19:47:35 GMT
Also did they still have radio silence, how would Kimmel be able to get into contact with Lexington without breaking his own radio silence .True. He might be able to have Hawaii broadcast something after he sorties, but to your point, direct communication would risk revealing he was out. Regards, So we would have Task Force 12 consisting of Lexington, three heavy cruisers and five destroyers and the US Pacific Fleet made up of whatever battleships, cruisers and destroyers are out in the ocean versus the Kidō Butai. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 15, 2020 15:35:45 GMT
What would be the butterflies of u.s. evacuation before pearl Harbor attack. We often hear of wargames of this scenario, and the US Fleet suffers badly being at sea where sunk ships are not recoverable. But wargames don't occur without combat; how much time does the Japanese Strike Force, or Recon planes have to conduct a search around Hawaii? If the US Fleet has left Pearl Harbor, how exactly will the Japanese planes find them? I think this one largely depends on when the harbor is emptied, and the direction the US Fleet takes. If the harbor is evacuated by 1:00 am local time, and the fleet takes a course Southwest at 12 or 15 knots (IIRC, at the time it was thought the Japanese would approach from the Southwest), the Fleet would be 84 or 105 miles away. At 5,000 feet altitude, the horizon is just over 82 miles; the US Fleet will be out of sight of the Japanese planes at that altitude. (I'm not sure what altitude the Japanese flew to Pearl Harbor, it might have been lower. ) If the fleet is detected, how will the Japanese fare against a fully closed ship, with all AA batteries manned and ready for attack and able to maneuver? And the other side of the wargames with the fleet 'at sea'; how do the Japanese avoid the historic over-concentration that saw West Virginia hit with seven (maybe 9) torpedoes and Oklahoma hit with five? I would also note the Standards had a reputation for being very maneuverable battleships. I think the Japanese will not do as well as historic, but will suffer more aircraft losses to AA fire. Also, the raid was not just against the ships. The airfields around Pearl Harbor were targeted as well as Kaneohe NAS on the Eastern coast of Oahu. Would the Japanese split the strike force, the torpedo and level bombers searching for the ships while the dive bombers and fighters go after the airfields? And they would only be splitting when they find the harbor and airfields empty. The aircraft from those airfields would be airborne, and the 36 PBYs from Kaneohe would be out searching for the Japanese. When the Japanese strike force arrives over the island, they're going to get a very harsh reception. And the Japanese can't afford heavy losses in planes and pilots. If they suffer numerous losses, future operations will be in jeopardy, including deploying to Wake Island, the Netherlands East Indies, the Indian Ocean raid and Coral Sea. Pennsylvania has her screws removed, so she, Cassin and Downs in drydock, as well as Shaw in the floating drydock are likely not going anywhere. If the rest of the harbor is empty, those ships left behind will likely bear the brunt of the attack, includin g Utah and the ex-armored cruiser Baltimore. My thoughts,
Just to clarify I was thinking about a clash at a later point, with the US trying to block the Japanese advance southwards or even, if desperation and stupidity takes over trying to relieve the Philippines.
This situation is vastly different if the fleet sorties before KB arrives. If the Japanese know of it beforehand, from reports from agents there they might try and find the fleet and make a launch before heading home, especially given their precarious fuel situation. If they launch their attacks on bases without knowing the fleet has gone and might be somewhere at sea close to them I would expect them to withdraw as quickly as possible to avoid being located. In that case, depending on the circumstances - i.e. is this a chance move by the fleet or do they have info about an attack? - then either the 1st waves goes roughly as OTL although with less ships to attack or they could get a very hot reception.
Steve
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1bigrich
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Post by 1bigrich on Feb 15, 2020 21:28:39 GMT
So we would have Task Force 12 consisting of Lexington, three heavy cruisers and five destroyers and the US Pacific Fleet made up of whatever battleships, cruisers and destroyers are out in the ocean versus the Kidō Butai.
I would think that would be about as bad as it could get for the Japanese. The surprise is reversed. And the interwar US Fleet Problems showed well what happens when carriers find themselves under the guns of battleships....
Regards,
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 15, 2020 21:31:40 GMT
So we would have Task Force 12 consisting of Lexington, three heavy cruisers and five destroyers and the US Pacific Fleet made up of whatever battleships, cruisers and destroyers are out in the ocean versus the Kidō Butai. I would think that would be about as bad as it could get for the Japanese. The surprise is reversed. And the interwar US Fleet Problems showed well what happens when carriers find themselves under the guns of battleships....
Regards,
Also i assume none of the three task-forces can stay out there for long as they need to return back to their basses. |
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1bigrich
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Post by 1bigrich on Feb 15, 2020 21:34:09 GMT
[quote source="/post/86094/thread" Just to clarify I was thinking about a clash at a later point, with the US trying to block the Japanese advance southwards or even, if desperation and stupidity takes over trying to relieve the Philippines.
This situation is vastly different if the fleet sorties before KB arrives. If the Japanese know of it beforehand, from reports from agents there they might try and find the fleet and make a launch before heading home, especially given their precarious fuel situation. If they launch their attacks on bases without knowing the fleet has gone and might be somewhere at sea close to them I would expect them to withdraw as quickly as possible to avoid being located. In that case, depending on the circumstances - i.e. is this a chance move by the fleet or do they have info about an attack? - then either the 1st waves goes roughly as OTL although with less ships to attack or they could get a very hot reception.
Steve
Steve, I have my doubts about the Japanese being able to find the Pacific Fleet at sea, as the whole operation was predicated on the Fleet being in port. That said, I think they have no choice but to attack Hawaii, as operations off Malaya and the Philippines will be going on as well. Relief of the Philippines was never going to happen. War Plan Rainbow had been essentially mooted by the start of the war. What might be more likely, especially if the Japanese are handed an early defeat and kept out of the Solomons because of it, is a Central Pacific campaign, similar to the historic, but earlier. My thoughts, |
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markp
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Post by markp on Feb 17, 2020 17:29:59 GMT
If the US fleet left well before the attack. If the Japanese found out the attack on Pearl Harbor would not happen and the time line would be totally changed. If the US fleet left a few hours before the attack the first wave would be thrown into confusion. The attacks on the airfields would still happen. The results would depend on why the fleet sailed. If it was dumb luck than the ships that stayed behind would be destroyed along with the air assets. If the second wave could be equipped with bombs to attack the fuel depot than the pacific fleet would return relatively intact but trapped until additional fuel could be sent out. If the Japanese found the US fleet at sea.The results would have been worse for the U.S. the ships that were sunk would stay sunk with greater loss of life the Japanese would lose more aircraft to the active U.S. air defenses. Another less likely result would be that the US battle line finds the Japanese fleet with either the aircraft out on the raid or being recovered. If the Japanese ran the higher speed of the carriers and Kongos would have allowed them to escape with little if any damage but the strike aircraft and their pilots would be lost crippling Japanese naval aviation. This defeat would have been followed by the U.S. battle fleet executing War Plan Orange and the Japanese trying to stop it. There would be a Jutland type sea battle near the Philippines. Either the U.S. fleet wins this battle leaving the Japanese open to invasion in 1942. Since there is no great loss of life in the surprise attack the U.S. would be more likely to entertain a negotiated settlement to the war. If the Japanese win than either the Japanese are able to negotiate a cease fire leaving the Japanese in control of the western Pacific. If not U.S. production will replace the fleet lost with another one that will fight it's way across the Pacific. The Japanese empire would then die in a rain of fire and fallout maybe holding on until 1946.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 18, 2020 13:04:12 GMT
If the US fleet left well before the attack. If the Japanese found out the attack on Pearl Harbor would not happen and the time line would be totally changed. If the US fleet left a few hours before the attack the first wave would be thrown into confusion. The attacks on the airfields would still happen. The results would depend on why the fleet sailed. If it was dumb luck than the ships that stayed behind would be destroyed along with the air assets. If the second wave could be equipped with bombs to attack the fuel depot than the pacific fleet would return relatively intact but trapped until additional fuel could be sent out. If the Japanese found the US fleet at sea.The results would have been worse for the U.S. the ships that were sunk would stay sunk with greater loss of life the Japanese would lose more aircraft to the active U.S. air defenses. Another less likely result would be that the US battle line finds the Japanese fleet with either the aircraft out on the raid or being recovered. If the Japanese ran the higher speed of the carriers and Kongos would have allowed them to escape with little if any damage but the strike aircraft and their pilots would be lost crippling Japanese naval aviation. This defeat would have been followed by the U.S. battle fleet executing War Plan Orange and the Japanese trying to stop it. There would be a Jutland type sea battle near the Philippines. Either the U.S. fleet wins this battle leaving the Japanese open to invasion in 1942. Since there is no great loss of life in the surprise attack the U.S. would be more likely to entertain a negotiated settlement to the war. If the Japanese win than either the Japanese are able to negotiate a cease fire leaving the Japanese in control of the western Pacific. If not U.S. production will replace the fleet lost with another one that will fight it's way across the Pacific. The Japanese empire would then die in a rain of fire and fallout maybe holding on until 1946.
A lot would depend on the circumstances and timing as you say.
However would agree its unlikely that the US would try and relief the Philippines if CV lost most of its pilots. While it greatly weakens the IJN the US wouldn't fully understand this and the odds would probably still be against the USN given the land based air power that Japan could commit to such an operation. Could be very costly for both sides but would expect the US on probability to lose such a battle and the USN would realise this. As 1bigrich, said Plan Orange was already recognised as impractical and I only mentioned it as a low probability if panic and political pressure overrode the military professionals.
Even if they did win and somehow rescue the Philippines - which are reduced to isolated forces in some southern islands and the units MacArthur pulled into Bataan - there wouldn't be an invasion of Japan in 42. The US lacks the trained troops, shipping, amphibious facilities and experience to try anything like that. More likely if they by some miracle manage to relieve and hold the Philippines would be them basing forces there to isolate the Japanese as much as possible and cut supply lines. Any landings in the Far East in 42 might be in support of this by gaining other bases to tighten the strangehold or possibly in China to help the KMT.
Steve
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markp
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Post by markp on Feb 23, 2020 17:13:00 GMT
I didn't think there would be direct invasion of the home islands in 1942. If the US did manage to defeat the Japanese Navy early and hold the Philippines. The starvation campaign would start earlier along with bombing of the home islands. The forces used in the Guadalcanal campaign would have been available to invade islands closer to Japan such as Formosa or Okinawa creating additional locations for airbases and sub bases to strangle the Japanese economy. Also more direct aide to China would be possible. Even if the Japanese were able to take the oil fields in Indonesia they would not have been able to get the oil back home. An actual invasion may happen in 1943 or more likely early 1944 after a 2 year bombing and submarine chokehold had been applied. An open sea battle in December of 1941 would give either side the opportunity to loose the war in an afternoon. The difference would have been that a US loss would not have resulted in the ultimate conquest of the United States. The best the Japanese could have hoped for would have been capture of everything east of Hawaii and a negotiated peace. That would have only been possible if the Japanese declaration of war landed on FDR's desk before the bombs landed on Pearl Harbor. That would also be a good reason for the Japanese to find the harbor empty.
Mark
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oscssw
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Post by oscssw on May 25, 2020 21:00:48 GMT
Would Kimmel have linked up with the Enterprise and Lexington. Possibly, but they might be out of position with their ferry runs. Lexington might be able to join as she only went to Midway, but Enterprise might be more of a challenge. Regards, |
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1bigrich
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Post by 1bigrich on Jun 2, 2020 17:29:10 GMT
Big E was a lot closer to Pearl than was lady Lex. In fact some of Enterprise SBD's were shot down on 7 December as they were to land at Ford island. Enterprise made it into Pearl late the day after the raid after searching for the Japanese Task Force.
That's true, Senior. She was close enough to fly her planes off to Oahu, and have them shot at (and as you way, down) by nervous gunners.
This page
shows the USN ships not at Pearl at the time of the attack.
Part of this
site.
Regards,
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 2, 2020 17:31:58 GMT
Possibly, but they might be out of position with their ferry runs. Lexington might be able to join as she only went to Midway, but Enterprise might be more of a challenge. Regards, I also remember seeing in the movie Midway that some got shot by Japanese zeros, do not know if that is fact ore movie fiction. |
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1bigrich
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Post by 1bigrich on Jun 2, 2020 18:37:28 GMT
I also remember seeing in the movie Midway that some got shot by Japanese zeros, do not know if that is fact ore movie fiction.
According to this stie:
Task Force 8 with Enterprise was 315 miles from Pearl Harbor at 0618 in the morning, when they launched the scouts to reconnoiter ahead then land at Pearl Harbor.
If you check the 1223 entry, Commander, TF 8 (Halsey) asked about those planes. They should have landed at 0830, in the middle of the first attack.
Regards,
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James G
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Post by James G on Jun 3, 2020 11:25:22 GMT
I also remember seeing in the movie Midway that some got shot by Japanese zeros, do not know if that is fact ore movie fiction.
According to this stie:
Task Force 8 with Enterprise was 315 miles from Pearl Harbor at 0618 in the morning, when they launched the scouts to reconnoiter ahead then land at Pearl Harbor.
If you check the 1223 entry, Commander, TF 8 (Halsey) asked about those planes. They should have landed at 0830, in the middle of the first attack.
Regards,
Well that would have been interesting. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 4, 2020 18:38:07 GMT
I also remember seeing in the movie Midway that some got shot by Japanese zeros, do not know if that is fact ore movie fiction. According to this stie: Task Force 8 with Enterprise was 315 miles from Pearl Harbor at 0618 in the morning, when they launched the scouts to reconnoiter ahead then land at Pearl Harbor.
If you check the 1223 entry, Commander, TF 8 (Halsey) asked about those planes. They should have landed at 0830, in the middle of the first attack. Regards, Am i reading this correctly, at: 1258 Com 14 Four Japanese transports off Barbers Point.
1300 RAMSAY Jap ship four miles from Barbers Point.Parachute troops landing on North Shore.
plane.)Looking at this, not only where they under air attack, they toughed the Japanese where landing troops ashore as well. |
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