insect
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Post by insect on Feb 21, 2020 0:19:36 GMT
Suppose Reagan is never elected and Democratic is president t from 1981-1989 how would America be different then otl??
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 21, 2020 12:32:03 GMT
Suppose Reagan is never elected and Democratic is president t from 1981-1989 how would America be different then otl??
Difficult to see it happening unless you remove/resolve successful the Iranian revolution and hostage crisis and also the resulting oil shock and economic problems. I did read recently that this was made worse in the US because Carter took the decision to implement some tough economic policies that would make him unpopular but would resolve some of the underlying problems.
However if it did happen there is probably a little less military spending - most of the initial Reagan military boost was also something Carter was committed to - and almost certainly no 'Star Wars' programme. Detaint will probably end given the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and I would expect that the US and others will aid the resistance against the Soviets. Carter - assuming he wins a 2nd term - and a possible replacement are likely to be less aggressive toward Nicaragua but then won't have the secret [and illegal] Contras arms trade with Iran for instance.
Economically the situation will probably be somewhat better for the average American as the big tax cuts for businesses and the rich are going to be smaller if at all so the deficit will be significantly smaller and there will be less of the concentration of wealth that started during that period. Also with more environmental controls and looking for alternative energy your likely to see faster growth there rather than it being cut off and more spending on coal and oil. Ideally for the US it could prompt drastic new industrial growth in those areas or at the least it might then be picked up and pushed further by Japan and other Tigers which would have a similar effect but just displace the location of activity. With less concentration of wealth and political power the unions will be more powerful but also your likely to get more innovation as it would be easier for smaller entities to come forward with new ideas.
There could of course, especially after 12 years of liberal leadership, be a Reaganite/Tea Party type reaction in the 1990s, with more interest in big business being aided and reducing the power of government. However with a continued progressive leadership in the US in the 80's this might not go as far as OTL.
Not sure of the international situation. The Soviet empire is likely to fall roughly as OTL which if it happens before a change of government in the US might give the Democrats another turn but I suspect is more likely to occur under a new Republican leadership. However given how many butterflies we can't be sure that the collapse will be as peaceful as OTL and it could be a total disaster. Elsewhere, not having Reagan in the US could mean a shorter span for Thatcherism in Britain as it looks less 'the coming thing' with the US taking a different route. Probably going to be a bit less military interventionism and a bit more aid for Third World areas and crisis events - famines, natural disasters etc. However as above so many butterflies can occur after such a significance change by this time.
Anyway, initial thoughts on some possibilities.
Steve
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