Forcon's alternate 1990s/noughties/Cold War 2.0 world-building thread.

[forcon]

Here is a thread for an AH universe with many similarities to ours that I came up with. All of it's a rough draft, but here is the background: 

The Middle East:
• Saddam is killed by a USAF strike during Operation Desert Storm. A power struggle between Uday and Qasay Hussein results, with the war ending in a similar fashion to OTL.
• Iraq descends into a brief ethnically-based civil war but then proceeds to collapse into a Shia south, Sunni midland, and Kurdish north.
• Turkey invades the independent Kurdish state in 1992, causing a major breakdown in relations with the West, which eventually results in Turkey withdrawing from NATO.
• Iran annexes the Shia southern Iraq throughout the early 1990s; the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia panic and US forces are invited to stay in Kuwait.
• The Arab Spring is on a smaller scale than OTL. Gaddafi is brought down by a Western invasion of Libya circa 2012 as the revolution occurs; dictatorships fall to internal rebellion across North Africa. However, Russia’s presence in Syria is enough to keep Assad in power without significant trouble.
• By 2020, the Middle East is somewhat more stable in some areas and more dangerous in others. A UN peacekeeping force is deployed in Sunni central Iraq after the rise of an IS-like entity in the noughties. Iraqi Kurdistan is under Turkish occupation, while southern Iraq is the site of a significant Iranian military presence, standing off with US and British forces in Kuwait. Central Iraq is perceived as a failed state, while northern Kurdish Iraq suffers under a brutal Turkish occupation, but southern Iraq survives in reasonable condition as part of Iran.

Europe:
• There is no August coup in 1991. As a result, Russia retains control over Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Armenia. The Central Asian States, the Baltic States, and Azerbaijan all go independent.
• In the 1990s, Russia launches military operations in Chechnya, leading to Western sanctions. The eventual result of this is Yeltsin being deposed in a hard-line coup by the military. The future rulers of Russia (Zyuganov, Putin and potentially others?) rule with rubber-stamp elections as part of an alliance between the siloviki and the military.
• NATO (or a similar Alliance without the more reluctant members) expands eastwards into Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia & Romania, all of whom are terrified of potential Russian expansionism. A joint US-British-French division is established in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with a brigade in each country, an analogue to the Berlin Brigade.
• The Balkans collapses still occur, with Western and UN military interventions greatly diminishing the death toll.
• Russia seeks to regain its superpower status and compete militarily and economically with the West. The Putin-esque shenanigans that began in 2014 OTL start in the early 2000s ITTL.
• As a result of a perceived dangerous and expansionist Russia, the US retains heavy forces in Germany and most Western European nations see far fewer post-Cold War defence cuts, although budgets are slashed somewhat following the fall of the Warsaw Pact.
• With no invasion of Iraq, US-Western European ties are even stronger than OTL. Germany opposes the Libya invasion, but the US, Britain, France, Italy and Poland are all in support.
• I haven’t thought this through fully but for UK governments; Labour wins in 1992 and again in 1997, with the Tories coming to power in 2003-2010, a Tory-LibDem coalition from 2010-2015 and a Blairite Labour victory in 2015.

United States:
• Clinton is brought down by the scandal of 1998, while Al Gore becomes President and wins in 2000, solidly defeating Bush but being ineligible to run again in 2004.
• 9/11 or a similar event takes place as per OTL; the US invades Afghanistan and does it right, with major international backing. SOF forces seize key points and several light infantry divisions are flown in to get the job done. The Taliban falls fast, and a significant force is kept in place to prevent their rising up again. However, there is still an insurgency in Afghanistan with moderate casualties and a continued American presence. US forces also form a significant part of the UN forces in Sunni Iraq.
• The US takes it as its key role to defend Arabia from a potential Iranian incursion, and also focuses on deterring Turkish aggression after the country withdraws from NATO. Iran is seen as a major regional threat as per OTL.
• US politics is somewhat more moderate than nowadays OTL; there is some violence but overall less vitriol from both sides. If the financial crash of 2008 can be avoided (I don’t know how, that is absolutely not my area of expertise) then this is possible.
• McCain wins in 2004 & 2008; Obama in 2012 & 2016; the next president will be…Elizabeth Warren?

Asia:
• North Korea undergoes a coup in the 1990s and moderates somewhat, forming a closer relationship with the PRC. Though the NK government is amongst the most repressive in the world, the regime is seen as somewhat more sensible in the modern era and the country is a bit richer; it is still poor, but there aren’t any mass famines on the same scale as the 1990s.
• China is on the path to become a military and economic superpower; some argue that it already is. The military build-up and economic growth progresses as per OTL, perhaps helped by a closer relationship with Russia and Central Asia. Possible Chinese military intervention in Central Asia to protect oil pipelines from Islamic Fundamentalists?
• India is in a similar position as OTL; same with Pakistan. I don’t know enough about that region of Asia to elaborate I’m afraid.

[stevep]

Feb 28, 2020 18:23:55 GMT forcon said:

Here is a thread for an AH universe with many similarities to ours that I came up with. All of it's a rough draft, but here is the background: 

The Middle East:
• Saddam is killed by a USAF strike during Operation Desert Storm. A power struggle between Uday and Qasay Hussein results, with the war ending in a similar fashion to OTL.
• Iraq descends into a brief ethnically-based civil war but then proceeds to collapse into a Shia south, Sunni midland, and Kurdish north.
• Turkey invades the independent Kurdish state in 1992, causing a major breakdown in relations with the West, which eventually results in Turkey withdrawing from NATO.
• Iran annexes the Shia southern Iraq throughout the early 1990s; the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia panic and US forces are invited to stay in Kuwait.
• The Arab Spring is on a smaller scale than OTL. Gaddafi is brought down by a Western invasion of Libya circa 2012 as the revolution occurs; dictatorships fall to internal rebellion across North Africa. However, Russia’s presence in Syria is enough to keep Assad in power without significant trouble.
• By 2020, the Middle East is somewhat more stable in some areas and more dangerous in others. A UN peacekeeping force is deployed in Sunni central Iraq after the rise of an IS-like entity in the noughties. Iraqi Kurdistan is under Turkish occupation, while southern Iraq is the site of a significant Iranian military presence, standing off with US and British forces in Kuwait. Central Iraq is perceived as a failed state, while northern Kurdish Iraq suffers under a brutal Turkish occupation, but southern Iraq survives in reasonable condition as part of Iran.

Europe:
• There is no August coup in 1991. As a result, Russia retains control over Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Armenia. The Central Asian States, the Baltic States, and Azerbaijan all go independent.
• In the 1990s, Russia launches military operations in Chechnya, leading to Western sanctions. The eventual result of this is Yeltsin being deposed in a hard-line coup by the military. The future rulers of Russia (Zyuganov, Putin and potentially others?) rule with rubber-stamp elections as part of an alliance between the siloviki and the military.
• NATO (or a similar Alliance without the more reluctant members) expands eastwards into Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia & Romania, all of whom are terrified of potential Russian expansionism. A joint US-British-French division is established in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with a brigade in each country, an analogue to the Berlin Brigade.
• The Balkans collapses still occur, with Western and UN military interventions greatly diminishing the death toll.
• Russia seeks to regain its superpower status and compete militarily and economically with the West. The Putin-esque shenanigans that began in 2014 OTL start in the early 2000s ITTL.
• As a result of a perceived dangerous and expansionist Russia, the US retains heavy forces in Germany and most Western European nations see far fewer post-Cold War defence cuts, although budgets are slashed somewhat following the fall of the Warsaw Pact.
• With no invasion of Iraq, US-Western European ties are even stronger than OTL. Germany opposes the Libya invasion, but the US, Britain, France, Italy and Poland are all in support.
• I haven’t thought this through fully but for UK governments; Labour wins in 1992 and again in 1997, with the Tories coming to power in 2003-2010, a Tory-LibDem coalition from 2010-2015 and a Blairite Labour victory in 2015.

United States:
• Clinton is brought down by the scandal of 1998, while Al Gore becomes President and wins in 2000, solidly defeating Bush but being ineligible to run again in 2004.
• 9/11 or a similar event takes place as per OTL; the US invades Afghanistan and does it right, with major international backing. SOF forces seize key points and several light infantry divisions are flown in to get the job done. The Taliban falls fast, and a significant force is kept in place to prevent their rising up again. However, there is still an insurgency in Afghanistan with moderate casualties and a continued American presence. US forces also form a significant part of the UN forces in Sunni Iraq.
• The US takes it as its key role to defend Arabia from a potential Iranian incursion, and also focuses on deterring Turkish aggression after the country withdraws from NATO. Iran is seen as a major regional threat as per OTL.
• US politics is somewhat more moderate than nowadays OTL; there is some violence but overall less vitriol from both sides. If the financial crash of 2008 can be avoided (I don’t know how, that is absolutely not my area of expertise) then this is possible.
• McCain wins in 2004 & 2008; Obama in 2012 & 2016; the next president will be…Elizabeth Warren?

Asia:
• North Korea undergoes a coup in the 1990s and moderates somewhat, forming a closer relationship with the PRC. Though the NK government is amongst the most repressive in the world, the regime is seen as somewhat more sensible in the modern era and the country is a bit richer; it is still poor, but there aren’t any mass famines on the same scale as the 1990s.
• China is on the path to become a military and economic superpower; some argue that it already is. The military build-up and economic growth progresses as per OTL, perhaps helped by a closer relationship with Russia and Central Asia. Possible Chinese military intervention in Central Asia to protect oil pipelines from Islamic Fundamentalists?
• India is in a similar position as OTL; same with Pakistan. I don’t know enough about that region of Asia to elaborate I’m afraid.

forcon,

  Interesting ideas but a few queries.  Chiefly centred on Britain as I know most about it.

a)  A 1992 Labour victory would put Kinnock in power or is there a different Labour leader, say an earlier John Smith?  Not sure if Labour had shed enough of its hard left image to achieve victory that early, although the Tories were in a mess with Thatcher's melt down in 1990 and conflict between hard line loyalists and reformers as to where to go from there.

b)  What is the status of Turkey?  Presumably pretty autocratic and isolated or is it very friendly with Putin?  If its occupied N Iraq it has even more Kurds to suppress so probably a lot of issues there and having left/been kicked out of NATO it doesn't have the west's support.  I can see links with Moscow being attractive to it, while Moscow gains potential additional bases and indirect control of the Black Sea entrance.  Greece and Bulgaria especially are probably very, very supportive of NATO.

c)  With no coup attempt in Russia in 1991 how restless are places like the Ukraine and Georgia - which I presume is still part of the empire if Armenia is.  Which also suggests that Armenia would have gotten Russian support in the conflict with Azerbaijan.  Although Armenia and Turkey would make very uncomfortable bedfellows to put it mildly!

d)  What powers are reluctant members of NATO that might have left the alliance?  With a more powerful Russia/Soviet rump state throwing its weight about earlier I suspect there would be few if any who sought to leave, especially since the US is somewhat more stable here.  I think even France would see an advantage of continuing to support the alliance and probably be back in full time.

e)  If the 2008 crash still occurs I doubt whoever was in power then would have any success in a 2010 election, especially a Tory part that had been in power since 2003 if it had been following anything like OTL policies as that would have been blamed for worsening the crisis.  Ditto I'm not sure about another Tory-LibDem coalition under those circumstances.  True Clegg was a total idiot OTL with the cock-up he made of a deal so it could happen again but while much of the party hierarchy are right wing in economic terms a lot of the voter support is more radical so a Tory party blamed for its role in the clash would be too poisonous to be considered.

f)  Obviously what's happening with the EU and also Brexit?  Expect the EU to seek to grab as many new states as it can and probably be successful but will it be more or less autocratic and centralised.  Going on from that will Britain still both get a 2nd vote and decide to leave?

g)  As I say above a lot depends on whether the 2008 crash can be avoided.  It would really need a much more interventionist government, especially in the US and to a lesser degree in the UK to keep the banks and fiscal institutions in check to a much greater degree.  That might be possible in the US with 6 years of Gore and 8 of McCain provided they can get support for reform but in many ways the horse had bolted once Thatcher and Reagan gave the fiscal industry such a free hand.

h)  With Gore in power and probably McCain following him with a more moderate policy your likely to see less failure on climate issues, although still going to be serious problems.  Hopefully by the time 2016 comes in you could see alternative power, in the US with others following it, much better placed and growing opposition to carbon based energy other than of course for transportation, which is likely to be the toughest nut to crack.

i)  If Afghanistan is handled better and the Taliban is keep from returning to contest control you could see a lot less extreme Islamic activity, although bound to be some.  This might mean that Pakistan and India are doing better in their international and internal relations, which would be a very good thing.  Also with much of the ME feeling threatened by Shia Islam and a probably still at least semi-secular Turkey Sunni Islam could be less likely to throw out so many extreme groups, or such venom is being directed at Turkey, Iran and Russia.

  Anyway initial thoughts on your ideas. 

  Steve

[forcon]

Thanks Stevep. I haven't thought a lot of it through in detail and the UK governments list was pretty preliminary. I thought that might change, especially with Kinnock in 1992.

Avoiding the financial crash is a pretty big factor in everything post 2008; I decided to go with Gore and McCain to get us in that direction. I suppose Gore would be somewhat more restrictive with the banks, although I'm not sure about McCain. I would expect there to be some moderation there, especially with Afghanistan going well and the Iraq war a non-issue. How this might affect the Obama Preaidency is a big unknown for me.

As for Turkey, my thinking is that Turkey would form a closer relationship not so much with Russia but with China instead. There would be a lot of regional issues between Ankara and Moscow, especially regarding Syria and an enlarged Russian presence there. Turkey occupying Kurdish Iraq would of course be a strain, but the alternative is allowing an independent Kurdistan, which is just not something that Ankara can do, regardless of the cost. A Sino-Turkish Alliance could be really interesting, with Russia as a major player in the region as well. The US would be focused on containing Iran as well as Turkey, with Shia militarism seen as the big threat in the region rather than Islamic fundamentalism, especially with Afghanistan handled better.

As for NATO, I would think the Alliance would retain its current membership. My concern was that certain nations, especially Germany, might be hesitant about expanding eastwards in the 1990s when TTLs Russia is much more assertive. Ukraine is pretty stable ITTL, although I would think that Georgia would have gone for independence, leaving Armenia an enclave like Kaliningrad.

[Brky2020]

Al Gore would have been eligible for a second full term. The 22nd Amendment states the VP can run for a second full term if he or she serves less than two years of their predecessors' term. Bill Clinton was IOTL acquitted on February 12, 1999; the length of time between that date and the next Presidential inauguration on January 20, 2001 was less than full years -- allowing for Gore to run for a second full term in 2004, assuming of course he won in 2000. Lyndon B. Johnson also could have run for a second full term in 1968; of course IOTL he declined to do so.

[stevep]

Mar 1, 2020 13:19:32 GMT forcon said:

Thanks Stevep. I haven't thought a lot of it through in detail and the UK governments list was pretty preliminary. I thought that might change, especially with Kinnock in 1992.

Avoiding the financial crash is a pretty big factor in everything post 2008; I decided to go with Gore and McCain to get us in that direction. I suppose Gore would be somewhat more restrictive with the banks, although I'm not sure about McCain. I would expect there to be some moderation there, especially with Afghanistan going well and the Iraq war a non-issue. How this might affect the Obama Preaidency is a big unknown for me.

As for Turkey, my thinking is that Turkey would form a closer relationship not so much with Russia but with China instead. There would be a lot of regional issues between Ankara and Moscow, especially regarding Syria and an enlarged Russian presence there. Turkey occupying Kurdish Iraq would of course be a strain, but the alternative is allowing an independent Kurdistan, which is just not something that Ankara can do, regardless of the cost. A Sino-Turkish Alliance could be really interesting, with Russia as a major player in the region as well. The US would be focused on containing Iran as well as Turkey, with Shia militarism seen as the big threat in the region rather than Islamic fundamentalism, especially with Afghanistan handled better.

As for NATO, I would think the Alliance would retain its current membership. My concern was that certain nations, especially Germany, might be hesitant about expanding eastwards in the 1990s when TTLs Russia is much more assertive. Ukraine is pretty stable ITTL, although I would think that Georgia would have gone for independence, leaving Armenia an enclave like Kaliningrad.

  forcon,

  OK thanks for expanding on some of the details.  I'm not sure of the 2008 slump being avoided, although with a President willing to be more active to control various fiscal bodies and a Congress giving enough support for that that he can get action you might end up with a couple of scandals and big firms going bankrupt and nothing else worse in the US.  I.e. a nasty shock and wake up call which could be very useful in the longer term for the US.  Possibly someone in the US points out how vulnerable the American fiscal system is to some of the dodgy practices being followed and the number of worthless loans being made, say triggered by a look at the stability of the system after either the dot-com burst or the east asian problems in the late 90's.

  Whether Britain or other countries could clean out their own cesspits here without more serious problems in their economies would be another matter but possibly with more drastic changes in Britain after a Labour victory in 1992 it might occur.

  If Turkey is linking up with China its likely to have tensions with Russia and is probably seeking to gain influence in the Turkic nations in central Asia.  Similarly if Russia is supporting Armenia then Turkey is probably contesting with Iran for influence in Azerbaijan.

  Well Germany will want to expand into E Germany and I think other powers would support Poland and Czechoslovakia or at least a Czech Republic joining the alliance, although nations further east or south/east could be left in the cold as a result.  Of course the EU will be seeking members anywhere it can get, albeit that is a different organisation but any nation that seeks to align with the west economically or politically will want a military cover that only NATO can provide.

 

  Steve

[gillan1220]

Feb 28, 2020 18:23:55 GMT forcon said:

Here is a thread for an AH universe with many similarities to ours that I came up with. All of it's a rough draft, but here is the background: 

The Middle East:
• Saddam is killed by a USAF strike during Operation Desert Storm. A power struggle between Uday and Qasay Hussein results, with the war ending in a similar fashion to OTL.
• Iraq descends into a brief ethnically-based civil war but then proceeds to collapse into a Shia south, Sunni midland, and Kurdish north.
• Turkey invades the independent Kurdish state in 1992, causing a major breakdown in relations with the West, which eventually results in Turkey withdrawing from NATO.
• Iran annexes the Shia southern Iraq throughout the early 1990s; the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia panic and US forces are invited to stay in Kuwait.
• The Arab Spring is on a smaller scale than OTL. Gaddafi is brought down by a Western invasion of Libya circa 2012 as the revolution occurs; dictatorships fall to internal rebellion across North Africa. However, Russia’s presence in Syria is enough to keep Assad in power without significant trouble.
• By 2020, the Middle East is somewhat more stable in some areas and more dangerous in others. A UN peacekeeping force is deployed in Sunni central Iraq after the rise of an IS-like entity in the noughties. Iraqi Kurdistan is under Turkish occupation, while southern Iraq is the site of a significant Iranian military presence, standing off with US and British forces in Kuwait. Central Iraq is perceived as a failed state, while northern Kurdish Iraq suffers under a brutal Turkish occupation, but southern Iraq survives in reasonable condition as part of Iran.

Europe:
• There is no August coup in 1991. As a result, Russia retains control over Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Armenia. The Central Asian States, the Baltic States, and Azerbaijan all go independent.
• In the 1990s, Russia launches military operations in Chechnya, leading to Western sanctions. The eventual result of this is Yeltsin being deposed in a hard-line coup by the military. The future rulers of Russia (Zyuganov, Putin and potentially others?) rule with rubber-stamp elections as part of an alliance between the siloviki and the military.
• NATO (or a similar Alliance without the more reluctant members) expands eastwards into Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia & Romania, all of whom are terrified of potential Russian expansionism. A joint US-British-French division is established in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with a brigade in each country, an analogue to the Berlin Brigade.
• The Balkans collapses still occur, with Western and UN military interventions greatly diminishing the death toll.
• Russia seeks to regain its superpower status and compete militarily and economically with the West. The Putin-esque shenanigans that began in 2014 OTL start in the early 2000s ITTL.
• As a result of a perceived dangerous and expansionist Russia, the US retains heavy forces in Germany and most Western European nations see far fewer post-Cold War defence cuts, although budgets are slashed somewhat following the fall of the Warsaw Pact.
• With no invasion of Iraq, US-Western European ties are even stronger than OTL. Germany opposes the Libya invasion, but the US, Britain, France, Italy and Poland are all in support.
• I haven’t thought this through fully but for UK governments; Labour wins in 1992 and again in 1997, with the Tories coming to power in 2003-2010, a Tory-LibDem coalition from 2010-2015 and a Blairite Labour victory in 2015.

United States:
• Clinton is brought down by the scandal of 1998, while Al Gore becomes President and wins in 2000, solidly defeating Bush but being ineligible to run again in 2004.
• 9/11 or a similar event takes place as per OTL; the US invades Afghanistan and does it right, with major international backing. SOF forces seize key points and several light infantry divisions are flown in to get the job done. The Taliban falls fast, and a significant force is kept in place to prevent their rising up again. However, there is still an insurgency in Afghanistan with moderate casualties and a continued American presence. US forces also form a significant part of the UN forces in Sunni Iraq.
• The US takes it as its key role to defend Arabia from a potential Iranian incursion, and also focuses on deterring Turkish aggression after the country withdraws from NATO. Iran is seen as a major regional threat as per OTL.
• US politics is somewhat more moderate than nowadays OTL; there is some violence but overall less vitriol from both sides. If the financial crash of 2008 can be avoided (I don’t know how, that is absolutely not my area of expertise) then this is possible.
• McCain wins in 2004 & 2008; Obama in 2012 & 2016; the next president will be…Elizabeth Warren?

Asia:
• North Korea undergoes a coup in the 1990s and moderates somewhat, forming a closer relationship with the PRC. Though the NK government is amongst the most repressive in the world, the regime is seen as somewhat more sensible in the modern era and the country is a bit richer; it is still poor, but there aren’t any mass famines on the same scale as the 1990s.
• China is on the path to become a military and economic superpower; some argue that it already is. The military build-up and economic growth progresses as per OTL, perhaps helped by a closer relationship with Russia and Central Asia. Possible Chinese military intervention in Central Asia to protect oil pipelines from Islamic Fundamentalists?
• India is in a similar position as OTL; same with Pakistan. I don’t know enough about that region of Asia to elaborate I’m afraid.

The premise of Al Gore winning in 2000 and McCain winning 2004 and 2008 is similar to this scenario on Alternate History Wiki:
althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Apocalypse%3A_2012#The_Point_of_Divergence_.28will_need_to_be_fleshed_out.29


So basically Gore wins in 2000, 9/11 still occurs as OTL and the U.S. invades Afghanistan. The Taliban retreat to Pakistan and infiltrate several sectors of the government. This causes the U.S. and India to seek closer ties. By 2003, Gore does not order the invasion of Iraq since no WMDs are found, therefore Saddam Hussein continues to rule until the early 2010s. McCain wins 2004 and continues the war in Afghanistan. Relations with Russia take a nosedive.