Blue Dawn, 1994

[James G]

83 – Backs to the sea


National guardsmen from Arkansas are fighting in the southwestern corner of Georgia, down in that country’s Adjara region. Batumi on the Black Sea coast is behind them and out ahead is the Union Army. Those with the 39th Infantry Brigade have their backs to the sea. They are being pushed closer and closer to the airhead at Batumi Airport – Camp Bowie as far as they are concerned: damn whatever the US Air Force wants to call it – yet in their fighting withdrawal, they are giving all that they’ve got to try to stop those trying to drive them into the sea from doing so. In some ways, the terrain found within Adjara in similar to the Ozarks and the Piney Woods back home. The soldiers from Arkansas fight through the hills and extensive woodland that they find somewhat familiar. They conduct ambushes and limited counterattacks while on the retreat, using the natural cover offered to them. Attacking Union forces are hit with all that the 39th Infantry Brigade can. The American part-time volunteers federalised for overseas service here now in Georgia are mainly on foot due to the 39th Infantry Brigade being a light infantry unit, but they have a squadron (company-sized) of armour with them which included a dozen M-60A3 tanks upon arrival. T-72s which come into their sights are engaged and knocked out of action by Arkansas’ own Cav’, though this isn’t just on-sided and there are American losses as well. The infantrymen also use their own man-portable weapons to go after enemy tanks and other armoured vehicles too. However, while falling back and making the 23rd Guards Motor Rifle Division pay for what they take, the 39th Infantry Brigade mainly engages riflemen. Up above, friendly aircraft provide a strong presence and they are hitting enemy amour with abandon. There are US Navy jets flying off their carrier out in the Black Sea, the US Air Force has aircraft over Georgia from Crimean bases & also now at Batumi and there are also US Army attack helicopters at Camp Bowie too. The AH-64 Apaches and OH-58 Kiowas are very welcome by the men with the 39th Infantry Brigade. They are using the terrain well themselves to make pop-up attacks and avoid enemy counterfire. There aren’t many of them currently here in Georgia but more are today being airlifted into Batumi. Air support, those few tanks of their own and also their organic artillery support is all being brought into play as the 39th Infantry Brigade makes extensive use of supporting firepower. They are still falling back though as the Union’s Fourth Army overruns more of Georgia through today.

Adjara came close to becoming an independent nation of its own outside of Georgia following the transformation of the Soviet Union into the Union of Sovereign States. Georgia broke away from Moscow’s rule and inside Adjara, local nationalists set the small region neighbouring Turkey on the path to succession while Georgia was beset by many other troubles. However, the alliance between Lebed and Shevardnadze before the former’s death doomed any Adjaran dreams of continued autonomy like they had in the Soviet era, let alone real independence. Abkhazia and South Ossetia were sold out too when Georgia was a Union ally and Lebed ruled Moscow. Some within the region have long dreamed of independence though. They don’t have popular support but they have guns and a determination to make an effort to see themselves free. With the Union overrunning Georgia following its siding with the Coalition, these wannabe freedom fighters believe that their moment has come. Union betrayal in the past is forgotten about and delusions of seeing the Union win the war against the West come… with the result being Georgian collapse there. They will help bring that about by freeing Adjara. There are groups of gunmen which have begun to make their presence felt in recent days. Firefights with what remains of the organs of the Georgian state present in Adjara have been initiated and they have set up roadblocks in places. No coordination has come with the Union for this and there have already been ‘incidents’ where 23rd Guards Motor Rifle Division units have mistaken them for Georgians themselves. The Americans are aware that there is a problem though currently believe that these armed Adjarans are working with the Union’s GRU. That mistaken belief is only reinforced following the attempted raid upon Camp Bowie today. Troopers with the Security Police unit at Batumi Airport aren’t the walkover expected to be met. The attackers are overcome by the US Air Force’s base defence personnel before they can penetrate the airport perimeter effectively with most of them killed and the rest captured while wounded. No American aircraft are attacked and these foolish Adjarans aren’t able to influence the ongoing fighting. All they have done is gained themselves another enemy.

Flying from Batumi Airport are American F-16 Fighting Falcon’s. The 301st Tactical Fighter Wing – an Air Force Reserve unit – has deployed here with their squadron of strike-fighters as well as supporting assets including those well-armed Security Police. The F-16s with the 301TFW started the war flying from Hungary after deploying there from Florida ahead of the shooting starting. Missions were flown over the Western Ukraine before they began the process of transferring to fly from Saki Airbase in the Crimea behind other air units. However, as there became the need for the Georgia Rescue Mission, they’ve been re-tasked to Batumi. Operation Dragon Dawn has them undertaking air missions increasingly closer to their current home. This means more weapons and fuel can be carried as well as the ability to give those on the ground in Georgia plentiful air support. It also means though that there is a possibility of Batumi Airport coming under attack: 301TFW ground personnel are at a high state of preparedness ready to fight off a strike. Armed local insurgents weren’t expected – they are anticipating Spetsnaz – but they are encountered and shot-up. Elsewhere in Georgia, there are A-10 Thunderbolts currently stationed at Kutaisi Airport who are also flying Dragon Dawn missions too. Those US Air Force regulars, the Air Force Reserve unit at Batumi and the American ground forces inside Georgia all report to Joint Task Force Thunder. A US Army senior officer, General Ronald Griffith, commands JTF Thunder. Three years ago, Griffith lead the 1st Armored Division into Iraq and the Battle of Medina Ridge: a huge tank battle where Saddam’s Republican Guard took one hell of a defeat. There are very few tanks in Georgia. He has air power on-call, infantry and Cav’ units (a squadron with each of his two infantry brigades) but no mass of armour. The airlifting of the few into Georgia which JTF Thunder has available was a big effort and took up space on transport missions that the Pentagon decided would be best filled by support troops to keep his infantry fighting, artillery and munitions. Without any one of the latter, JTF Thunder would be finished now with American forces overrun. But… he’d still like to have tanks here. Air power can still do a great deal though.

Near to Kutaisi, Army Reservists with the 187th Infantry Brigade are fighting a different sort of fight to what the national guardsmen are in Adjara. They are on the defensive here in Central Georgia, holding firm rather than making a fighting retreat. The Georgian Army’s 6th Brigade joins with the Americans in keeping the Union’s 295th Motor Rifle Division from reaching that small city. The airport outside Kutaisi is the second American airhead in Georgia, set further back from the forward positions, and somewhere that cannot be lost if JTF Thunder is to keep fighting. Around Nakhshirigele the fighting rages towards and which these American reservists are engaged in. Georgian T-62s are alongside the few M-60A3s that the Americans have. However, with Union tanks attracting the attention of everything flying, this is mainly an infantry-vs.-infantry engagement. It goes on all day. The 295th Motor Rifle Division cannot get forward and onwards to reach Kutaisi Airport. This is the Fourth Army’s ultimate objective because the Union commander regards it as just as important as Griffith does. A-10s flying from there, while larger transports are inbound & outbound on freight runs, take a couple of minutes to reach the frontlines. They are guided towards where they can find rifle units attacking friendly troops. Rockets are launched and bombs dropped. Back to Kutaisi they go to re-arm and re-fuel before coming out again. During the late afternoon, Union forces just back from the frontlines but moving in towards them, suffer an Arc Light attack. B-52 Stratofortress’ making a high-level massed bomb attack do what they did in the Southern Ukraine a few days ago in support of US Marines. Multiple three-aircraft cells open their bomb bay doors to drop extraordinary amounts of ordnance directly atop enemy forces where they are spotted bunched up. This only works with excellent liaison from the ground. American and Georgia troops are warned and take cover on que but the targeting is near perfect. Devastation is wrought before those bombers fly back towards their base in Britain. When there, they will be getting ready to return again tonight.

The Arc Light strike goes in straight after the 301TFW’s F-16s make an attack against remaining air defences protecting the 295th Motor Rifle Division. Two flights of the strike-fighters fulfilling the Wild Weasel role where they launch anti-radar missiles occur ahead of the big bombers appearing at a far greater altitude. Only a few of the AGM-88 HARM missiles are fired. That isn’t for lack of intent. The American aviators would have wanted to hit more air defences but there are so few of them left. For some time now, the Fourth Army and its component unit’s air defences have been shot-up extensively. Land-based aircraft flying captured airbases in the Crimea (there are seven of them there which the Americans are making much use of) have been busy doing this though not to the degree which jets off the USS America have been. The America’s air wing is back at it again today. They are flying general strike missions throughout Georgia and also reaching back into Azerbaijan at times too. However, there is soon to be a temporary stand down for those aboard the currently lone US Navy carrier in the Black Sea. Moving today through the Turkish Straits is the USS George Washington. Turkish-US relations are strained due to Turkey interpreting its neutrality in its own way, not as the United States says the government in Ankara should, but there is no closing of the connecting link between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Protected by the Turkish military and with tugboats plus a piloting crew aboard the carrier involved, the Washington approaches the Black Sea. Come tonight, her air wing will take over from the America’s. Passage through the Turkish Straits for the incoming carrier means going through the Dardanelles, crossing the Sea of Marmara and then navigating along the Bosporus. The Turks are fully involved in the passage. They have cleared maritime traffic and provide security. As part of the latter, before the Washington comes within sight of Istanbul ready to make the last part of the journey, the Turkish Navy’s SAT commandos conduct an ambush against a Union strike team seeking to block the Americans from getting another carrier into the Black Sea. There is a GRU operation about to get underway with their own commandos, Union Navy Spetsnaz, aiming to seize a civilian vessel and use it as a blockship at a perfect place. Only once the Spetsnaz show themselves does the SAT team move.

For many days, the Turks have waiting ready for this. Their commandos pull off the ambush with seemingly ease. It is far harder than it looks though and takes training, patience and skill to work as well as it does. The SAT team only has one casualty while eliminating the Spetsnaz. The GRU team had no idea they had been so thoroughly compromised and are caught unawares in the ambush. There is nothing to obstruct the Washington as it goes onwards into and then through the Bosporus. Turkey’s president calls President Robb after the success had by his commandos. There has already been contact below president-to-president level ahead of this including the sharing by the Americans of all the intelligence they had on this attempt. Turkey waited until the violation of its territory and neutrality was on the cusp of happening, which the United States wasn’t so happy about, yet there had been faith with Robb and the Pentagon that the Turks could pull it off: the intelligence supplied was perfect and SAT isn’t an unknown quality. Robb is asked where the United States received such information from and he provides answers whereas before his secretary of defence declined to. America has the GRU head in their custody since his snatching by Delta Force the other day. He is talking. He’s talking about more things than just this too, though the Turks aren’t told about that.

[stevep]

   James G ,

  National guardsmen from Arkansas are fighting in the southwestern corner of Georgia,

  I couldn't resist a chuckle at this.  Could image one of they joking.  "This ain't Georgia.  My brother's wife comes from Atlanta and this definitely ain't Georgie".

  I suppose one alternative ending, since Primakov is now in Moscow, is that once the US realises what actually happened they could arrange a nasty terrorist incident by 'Gromov' loyalists, which sees Primakov killed.  Possibly with a warning to whoever succeeds him as to what actually happened.

  It might be considered an option in that President Kerrey's assassin - or at least the man who ordered it - is dead and Russia/Union is further weakened and that it would be too embarrassing for everybody in the government to admit they were fooled and a hell of a lot of people, including American and allied troops died to depose the wrong man.  Its a potential time bomb for the future but possibly those in power think its less destructive to the country [and their careers] than telling the truth which would kick up a political storm and also raise the question of what to do about the political situation in Russia. 

  Of course whatever happens I can't see Gromov surviving.

  Steve

 

[James G]

May 29, 2020 9:44:58 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  National guardsmen from Arkansas are fighting in the southwestern corner of Georgia,

  I couldn't resist a chuckle at this.  Could image one of they joking.  "This ain't Georgia.  My brother's wife comes from Atlanta and this definitely ain't Georgie".

  I suppose one alternative ending, since Primakov is now in Moscow, is that once the US realises what actually happened they could arrange a nasty terrorist incident by 'Gromov' loyalists, which sees Primakov killed.  Possibly with a warning to whoever succeeds him as to what actually happened.

  It might be considered an option in that President Kerrey's assassin - or at least the man who ordered it - is dead and Russia/Union is further weakened and that it would be too embarrassing for everybody in the government to admit they were fooled and a hell of a lot of people, including American and allied troops died to depose the wrong man.  Its a potential time bomb for the future but possibly those in power think its less destructive to the country [and their careers] than telling the truth which would kick up a political storm and also raise the question of what to do about the political situation in Russia. 

  Of course whatever happens I can't see Gromov surviving.

  Steve

 

Yeah, I see that now! If only I could have had Georgians fighting Arkansans (spelling?).
A plot like that in Moscow could work, maybe even an air crash even: the latter being ironic in its own way. Such a thing would only be revealed later down the road when someone talks though.
The political affects of truth revelation are massive. All those deaths, all those countries deceived, nuclear war threatened... all for not just a lie but massive incomptence in going to war without knowing the truth.
Gromov's future isn't looking very bright. 

[James G]

84 – Legitimacy


The following day sees Turkey switch official recognition of the Union’s leadership from Gromov to Primakov. The latter is back in Moscow while the former has fled the nation’s capital some time ago. Turkey’s diplomatic relations with the Union at the highest level have been strained since February and the beginning of the civil war, yet Ankara had ties with Moscow and not Novosibirsk. Ankara-Moscow ties are still there… just with a new leader in the capital of the Union. Turkey isn’t alone. China does the same thing. Beijing has long aggravated Gromov by having dealings with Primakov but those have been of a non-official relationship. With Primakov now in the Kremlin, China makes their recognition of his legitimacy as the Union’s ruler official too. The Chinese have spent ten days criticising the American-led Coalition invasion of the Union – calling for non-interference in the domestic affairs of their neighbour – and they are also unhappy at Primakov being put where he now is on the back of American firepower, but diplomatic relations with his regime are now restored. Others are also recognising Primakov’s legitimacy. Across the world, there has been much hand-wringing for many long months over which faction in the Union’s civil war to recognise following Lebed’s death. Ambassadors in Moscow have been few with lesser representation here; there have too been ‘interest sections’ opened in Novosibirsk by countries hedging their bets somewhat. Primakov is in Moscow though and, while American bayonets have put him there, governments across the globe take the opportunity to see full relations with the Union restored.

Primakov makes a broadcast to his people today. He speaks from the Kremlin with his message sent out across the Union, including the republics which have broken away too. A call for unity is made and for an end to the fighting taking place. Supporters of Gromov, be they military or civilian, are urged to abandon him and accept that the Union needs reuniting. An amnesty is promised, one which Primakov says is to be unconditional. He wants the killing to stop and calls upon everyone watching and listening to see that done. The reach of this broadcast is meant to be Union wide though it certainly doesn’t get to every corner of the Union as intended. Regardless, many will hear about it afterwards even if they don’t witness it live. The public messages come with private ones. Primakov and those with him in Moscow – all brought here under American protection – are able to send some messages out from the capital themselves, though it is from out of Siberia that the majority of the communications to enemies desired to be made friends again with are dispatched from. Primakov’s regime urges behind the scenes what he has just done publicly: give in and you will not suffer consequences. Military commanders and civilian officials in important positions of regional power are directly contacted where possible.


Inside Moscow, American soldiers continue to occupy the city. The 82nd & 101st Airborne Divisions have men on the streets while further US XVIII Airborne Corps assets are here too. Britain and Poland have also flown in troops. There are few of them, a couple of thousand combined, and it is in many ways just a symbolic presence despite political posturing of it being an important nature. Soldiers with the Gloucestershire Regiment go to the British Embassy complex, located on the Island just across from the Kremlin, after coming up from lines of communications security duties back in Poland. The Primakov regime does have some soldiers of their own within Moscow as well. There aren’t that many of them and most are from Union forces who switched sides in the face of the Coalition invasion coming out of Eastern Europe. They are here though, pending the arrival of larger numbers of long-term Primakov loyalists from out of Siberia arriving in number. Small parties of them spend today moving with officials from the regime who came in from over the Urals via the Arctic yesterday in going to selected locations within Moscow. The Americans have a presence at the Moscow White House (where the seat of the State Duma is) but, due to agreements made, they stand aside as Primakov’s people arrive: plans are already underway to begin restoring the government. The Lubyanka building has survived the war with the Americans and to there Primakov’s people go too. However, it was only left untouched by falling bombs and cruise missile strikes because Gromov’s regime took over it in February where the FSB personnel there were arrested en masse. The near-destroyed Union military headquarters on Arbatskaya Square is also somewhere that representatives of the legitimate regime go to. Primakov is engaging in games of symbolic presence himself.

Occupied by foreign troops, Moscow hasn’t seen the descent into chaos which plagued Leningrad and Minsk before they fell nor have there been the scenes on the streets of troubling incidents post-capture such as in Kiev and Riga. However, Muscovites aren’t welcoming of the Coalition forces here. The Americans are everywhere throughout the city. Interactions take place between the occupiers and those who call this city home. Only a small portion of them are violent and come about when the Americans come under attack – or believe they are about to – yet it seems as if everyone knows about these… and hear a different version of what happened rather than the truth. There is no organised resistance from pro-Gromov armed parties but the odd riflemen with loyalties to that dying regime who hasn’t surrendered or switched factions to Primakov takes opportunities when presented to engage the Americans. This doesn’t work out well for them, not with the Americans everywhere. HMMWVs and helicopters move soldiers around the city at speed to respond to shooting incidents. Those other interactions come between civilians and the foreign troops with regards to security. The Militsiya – Moscow’s Police – didn’t fight to defend the city alongside what few troops that Gromov was able to get to defend his capital. They do not have the manpower though to stop acts of criminality now taking place. That is where the Americans step in when their attention is drawn to robberies, looting and violence. Elsewhere, Muscovites watch as the Americans are all over military sites across the city and extend cordons around them. Those who live here do not like these foreigners telling them what to do and pointing weapons at them when they refuse to. Insults are given, stones are thrown and, on occasion, ‘Molotov cocktails’ are also chucked. The worst of this unpleasantness isn’t everywhere but where it does occur, it exasperates a worsening situation.

US Secretary of State Blanchard arrives in Moscow late in the day. He visits Primakov at the Kremlin and the matter of troops in Moscow comes up. The two of them both want to see a lower number of American forces inside the city. Primakov wants to bring loyalists here, those from out in Siberia. The situation in the Urals complicates that but the air-link – via a roundabout route – is still viable. Blanchard is amenable to this and an agreement is reached to allow that to happen. He and the US Government both want to see Primakov’s forces taking responsibility for security in Moscow with the ultimate, long-term goal for there to be no American troops on the streets. A pull-out will take some time yet it is desired by each side. The still ongoing fighting with Gromov’s forces is something to factor in yet the two of them both know that Primakov legitimacy and his amnesty are having an effect throughout the Union. Successful discussions on this are met with disagreements on other things though. The details of what Primakov said when he called for national unity were unknown to the Americans ahead of that. That unity being spoken of was directed towards the other republics of the Union as well as within Russia. Primakov wants Central Asia back. He also wants to see the Union maintaining other territory to the west too. The Baltics aren’t included as per long standing agreements between the Coalition and him, but Primakov tells Blanchard that within Belarus and the Ukraine, those in power there want to stay with the Union. In response, Blanchard politely informs Primakov that those in power are actually Coalition troops. Independence for those two nations is what the Coalition wants. The Kaliningrad Oblast is another matter too. The different points of view on these matters aren’t going to be worked out as easily as the manner of troops on Moscow’s streets.

[James G]

A map of the situation on the ground at this point. (please ignore some of the borders in Yugoslavia)

Light Blue: Coalition countries in Europe.
Dark Blue: Coalition occupied territory.
Orange: Gromov's Union.
Red: Gromov's occupied areas in Georgia & Kazakhstan.
Green: The very edges of Primakov's reach from Siberia.

Click on the map to enlarge.

[stevep]

  James G ,

  Well things are rolling along and look to be going well.  It does seem a bit pointless having small British and Polish forces in Moscow while there is still disorder in Leningrad, plus it complicates things logistically and language wise. 

  I think the main danger with the odd sniper or unrest is if the US goes in guns blazing and a number of civilians are casualties, which is likely to cause a lot of unrest.

  The situation in Belarus and Ukraine is going to be 'interesting' with US [mainly] forces on the ground and mixed opinion in those states as to whether to be independent or rejoin the union under Primakov, let alone central Asia.  The US does have the military power at the moment but are they willing to defend such areas against Primakov if he can make it look like he has popular support for his cause?  Ditto for the Kaliningrad enclave.

  Also Primakov is probably going to want the US to stop attacking SSBNs, both because their important assets he would want to control and because he would have a point if a commander under attack decides to launch before their sunk.

  I predict that if the US isn't out by winter they will probably be there for some time.  Probably facing growing unpopularity.  One possibility once Gromov's faction is destroyed and he's dead or captured is that the allies quickly withdraw from Russia, possibly excluding Kaliningrad for the moment, into Belarus and Ukraine and start preparing for plebiscites under their supervision on independence or rejoining the union.  Trying to present Primakov or his successor with a fait accompli.  Possibly also accompanied by legal recognition of the assorted Central Asian states and trade and other deals with them.

  In terms of my earlier post what I meant was that, especially if they think a successor to Primakov - 'after his accident' - might have been involved in or know who was actually responsible for Kerrey's assassination, that they get a warning about what happened, in a way that can't be formally traced back to the US.  Basically a warning to behave or else.  After all any Primakov successor is unlikely to want to broadcast that he was responsible for the war and the American intervention that put them in power as while it would cause political uproar in the US if believed their also admitting having benefiting from the act.  Which could see them and their regime being less than popular both in the US and possibly inside the Union as it prompted the US/allied invasion and the destruction of much of the Union's military and a lot of deaths and suffering.

  Steve

[hussar01]

Post-war Russia? Broken apart much like the former Yugoslavia? Kaliningrad to Poland? New name Królewiec? With special autonomous status within Poland? A broken up Russia would bz defailt make it a threat to no one. China would welcome it. A broken up Russia whose states future independence guaranteed by the US?

[lordroel]

May 29, 2020 18:08:34 GMT James G said:

A map of the situation on the ground at this point. (please ignore some of the borders in Yugoslavia)

Light Blue: Coalition countries in Europe.
Dark Blue: Coalition occupied territory.
Orange: Gromov's Union.
Red: Gromov's occupied areas in Georgia & Kazakhstan.
Green: The very edges of Primakov's reach from Siberia.

Click on the map to enlarge.

View Attachment

Is Finland going for a Round Three to get its 1940 borders back.

[James G]

May 30, 2020 9:22:54 GMT stevep said:

  James G ,

  Well things are rolling along and look to be going well.  It does seem a bit pointless having small British and Polish forces in Moscow while there is still disorder in Leningrad, plus it complicates things logistically and language wise. 

  I think the main danger with the odd sniper or unrest is if the US goes in guns blazing and a number of civilians are casualties, which is likely to cause a lot of unrest.

  The situation in Belarus and Ukraine is going to be 'interesting' with US [mainly] forces on the ground and mixed opinion in those states as to whether to be independent or rejoin the union under Primakov, let alone central Asia.  The US does have the military power at the moment but are they willing to defend such areas against Primakov if he can make it look like he has popular support for his cause?  Ditto for the Kaliningrad enclave.

  Also Primakov is probably going to want the US to stop attacking SSBNs, both because their important assets he would want to control and because he would have a point if a commander under attack decides to launch before their sunk.

  I predict that if the US isn't out by winter they will probably be there for some time.  Probably facing growing unpopularity.  One possibility once Gromov's faction is destroyed and he's dead or captured is that the allies quickly withdraw from Russia, possibly excluding Kaliningrad for the moment, into Belarus and Ukraine and start preparing for plebiscites under their supervision on independence or rejoining the union.  Trying to present Primakov or his successor with a fait accompli.  Possibly also accompanied by legal recognition of the assorted Central Asian states and trade and other deals with them.

  In terms of my earlier post what I meant was that, especially if they think a successor to Primakov - 'after his accident' - might have been involved in or know who was actually responsible for Kerrey's assassination, that they get a warning about what happened, in a way that can't be formally traced back to the US.  Basically a warning to behave or else.  After all any Primakov successor is unlikely to want to broadcast that he was responsible for the war and the American intervention that put them in power as while it would cause political uproar in the US if believed their also admitting having benefiting from the act.  Which could see them and their regime being less than popular both in the US and possibly inside the Union as it prompted the US/allied invasion and the destruction of much of the Union's military and a lot of deaths and suffering.

  Steve

Brits and Poles in Moscow are few in number but, yes, overall it does seem pointless. I know that British forces went to Kuwait City in 1991 though when that was far from where the main body of British forces were. My thinking on this was regard to the political purposes of the Coalition.
The Americans really want to hand over general security to Primakov forces. They'll stay at key sites but the danger of a spiralling situation with locals and foreign occupiers is something no one would really want.
Belarus and the Ukraine might return to the Union whereas Central Asia and the Baltics are long gone. Kaliningrad is a problem which I am thinking on. I'm unsure on whether to have the Coalition give up ideas of independence for Minsk & Kiev or force the issue as you suggest.
I'd forgotten about the SSBNs and attacks on them. I'll need to think on that.
The US will want to be out, so too the Brits and others. Out of Russia for sure, maybe not elsewhere.
I still need to decide on where we go with Gromov/Primakov and 'the truth' for the end. It will be decided as I reach that point because I am still really unsure.

May 30, 2020 13:52:35 GMT hussar01 said:

Post-war Russia? Broken apart much like the former Yugoslavia? Kaliningrad to Poland? New name Królewiec? With special autonomous status within Poland? A broken up Russia would bz defailt make it a threat to no one. China would welcome it. A broken up Russia whose states future independence guaranteed by the US?

Kaliningrad is an issue, a big issue: one I am not sure about. It might be occupied and forced into independence but I am very unsure about Poland taking it.
A broke-up Russia being a threat to no one was thought possible in OTL 1991: look where we are now!
China will have a relationship with the Primakov regime. The West isn't friendly with Beijing so there will be an opportunity there.

May 30, 2020 13:59:26 GMT lordroel said:

Is Finland going for a Round Three to get its 1940 borders back.

Not something on the cards. Not really any 'Finns' to liberate from oppression and there is no real movement in Finland to regain territory long lost.

[James G]

85 – Switching sides


3 PARA conducts an airborne drop deep inside Western Russia at dawn. The battalion of British Army paratroopers land just before dawn at two selected areas along the banks of the Volga River downstream from the Rybinsk Reservoir. At Glebovo and Myshkin, small localities far away from where the frontlines of war are, the Paras arrive at sites marked by pathfinders who arrived during the night. Low-flying Hercules C3s flown by the RAF are the aircraft from which the Paras jump. The landings are generally on-target. Very few men end up blown off course or hurt by physical obstructions. From landing sites each side of where the Volga is particularly wide here, the Paras rapidly move upon their riverside objectives. There are Union Army engineers in their way, reservists from bridging and transportation units, along with a few riflemen up ahead. Gunfire is exchanged and where those near to Myshkin put up strong resistance, an air strike comes in with the RAF making a return. Tornado GR1 strike-bombers flying from the captured Pskov Airbase come in much lower than the departed Hercules’ did and drop their own cargoes. Explosions rock enemy positions, killing many and wounding more. Away the Tornados go and the Paras come forward themselves. Resistance is soon over at Myshkin when the Paras get in-close. Up at Glebovo, the single 3 PARA company dropped either side of the river here – the other two companies of men landed upstream – find no one willing to fight them: surrenders now follow desertions which occurred the moment the British were sighted. 3 PARA takes control of the bridge and ferry crossings over the Volga. Less than two hours later, they are reached by ground forces. The Desert Rats, the 7th Armoured Brigade, arrives with Royal Engineers tucked in behind the lead tank units. Sappers go to work to allow for the passage over the Volga of not just the Desert Rats but the rest of the 1st Armoured Division following behind them. The Volga here is quite the physical water barrier to forward movement but 3 PARA’s success in taking control of the Union’s own crossing links, to send their men west whereas the British wish to go east, mean that it won’t stop the advance going forward. The rail bridge at Glebovo is of use though there are better connections over the river at Myshkin with two vehicle ferries now in British hands. The Royal Engineers bring their own equipment to help move the 1st Armoured Division over the river too. German-built M2 amphibious bridging vehicles arrive and enter the Volga to allow for British tanks & armoured vehicles to roll over them. Work begins on erecting temporary bridges as well.

Meanwhile, the 3rd Mechanised Division reaches the large town of Cherepovets, on the far northern side of the reservoir. British tanks and infantry have come here ready for a fight after intelligence reports suggested that mobilised reservists have been instructed to report to Cherepovets to be armed with weapons taken from storage sites. The Army Air Corps helicopters flying scouting missions ahead of the arrival of the division’s 1st Mechanised Brigade aren’t shot at though when flying low and having a nose about. No gatherings of large numbers of armed men are spotted either. The 1st Mechanised Brigade rolls in with instructions to secure the mass of transportation links which converge here. That they do and meet no serious resistance. A few odd shots here and there are taken at them from some patriots who are willing to fight for the town but that doesn’t have any real impact. Cherepovets falls with ease. In discovering what has happened to the expected opposition, a Union Army colonel makes an appearance and declares to the brigadier commanding the 1st Mechanised Brigade that his loyalties no longer lie with the Gromov regime. He personally cancelled the mobilisation with regard to Cherepovets and is willing to work with Coalition in helping them rid his country of such illegitimacy. With this objective secured in this manner, there are moves made past Cherepovets by the 3rd Mechanised Division to reach further objectives. Fedotovo Airbase some distance away to the east is taken and then the town of Vologda reached. Union Navy aviation personnel at Fedotovo put up resistance – and are run through in a tank attack – but at Vologda, there are similar scenes as witnessed in Cherepovets. No fighting takes place in that second town and a senior officer echoes that of his distant comrade in stating that despite what communications the British might have intercepted talking of a mass mobilisation of fighting men, that has been shelved on a local level.

The Ninth Army has been formed during the past week on instructions from STAVKA to oversee the mobilisation of reservists across towns & cities through a large area around the Rybinsk Reservoir. Equipment from storage sites in the form of T-55s, BTR-50s, AK-47s and such like is meant to be issued to a complete field army assembled in Cherepovets, Vologda and other places. Reservists have answered the call in good numbers and STAVKA had intended to use the Ninth Army in conjunction with others raised elsewhere to march westwards. The British have reached this area first but there was still anticipated to be a fight put up. At Yaroslavl where the headquarters for the Ninth Army is, the general named as its commander was willing to do just that up until late yesterday when news came that not only Moscow had fallen but that Primakov was there in the Kremlin. Ahead of today’s call from Primakov for national unity and the promise of an amnesty, he’s already made his mind up to switch sides. The Ninth Army is going to be turned over to Primakov when the general figures out how to do that. Yet, his command over the widely scattered units raised out of cadre status collapses all around him. Subordinates have cut communications with his headquarters and are doing everything they can to rob the Ninth Army of all that it could have been. What is seen at Cherepovets and Vologda is done at Kostroma and Rybinsk too. Only in the city of Yaroslavl is his authority holding. Indecision grips the general through today when it comes over what to do. Does he stand the Ninth Army down? Does he try to maintain order somehow when everything is falling apart? The British I Corps ‘helps’ him find a solution. Their 1st Armoured Division approaches Yaroslavl after the Desert Rats come across from Myshkin. There is only silence from that outpost and the thinking was that there was mutiny there, not enemy action. Now streaming towards the city is a mass of armour. Aircraft and helicopters reach Yaroslavl ahead of the Desert Rats and they are engaged. Anti-aircraft guns open up on them and there comes the launch of a few SAMs but the Ninth Army has no air defences capable of doing anything much more than providing a dangerous nuisance. STAVKA was willing to send them into battle against Coalition forces without protection from above regardless. An impassioned plea is made by one of the Ninth Army’s headquarters staff officers to make a fight for it, to defend the Rodina against foreign invaders, but it doesn’t carry any weight. The army commander issues ceasefire instructions. The Ninth Army will not fight the British but will switch sides instead. Soon enough, the British are in Yaroslavl after beforehand taking Rybinsk. The Desert Rats will go all the way to Kostroma before the end of the day too, all without resistance.


The Americans follow the Volga Highway away from where they are east of Moscow towards Gorki. US III Corps elements, supported by massed air power, engage with the last remnants of Gromov’s Sixth Guards Tank Army on the way. The 55th Artillery Brigade and the 93rd Guards Motor Rifle Division spent yesterday exchanging fire with their supposed comrades-in-arms who were surrendering and not switching sides as believed, but today those Union Army forces in the area around Vladimir face the Americans. Led by the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment to make initial contact, the 2nd Armored Division comes into play once Union forces are under fire. A huge tank battle rages across the countryside north of the Volga Highway and then behind Vladimir to the east. The Americans push forward making use of all of their firepower on the ground and above to blast their opponents to pieces. A withdrawal back to better defensive positions eastwards would have been the best thing for the Union troops to do once they make contact with an overwhelming force like they do, but their commander obeyed orders coming down direct from STAVKA to hold their ground her. The result is this destruction on a grand scale along with many, many lives lost. The Battle of Vladimir was envisioned by the Union’s senior-most military commanders to be one which would last at least a full day and give them time to get other forces into defensive position closer to Gorki. This isn’t something that they get the chance to do.

From Vladimir, the Americans move further onwards. The Blackhorse Cav’ is back out in front and the III Corps has the 1st Cavalry Division (an armoured division in all but name) in behind too. Combat losses incurred with the 2nd Armored Division don’t mean that it can’t continue the advance but that follow-up division is believed necessary. There is strong opposition reported ahead of Gorki and back through that city on the Volga. Gromov has raised the Second Army there, something similar to the Ninth Army that the British are dealing with to the north. Poorly-equipped and nowhere near at projected strength it is yet the III Corps come prepared for a full-scale fight with it. That begins on the banks of the Klyazma River past Gorokhovets. Second Army troops put up a fight to try to stop the III Corps from following the Volga Highway past this narrow waterway. Once more, all that the Americans can bring into play they do. The Blackhorse Cav’ fought with the US XVIII Airborne Corps inside Belarus and they know how to effectively (and safety) coordinate air and artillery support to ensure they overcome opposition like this. Engineers are soon helping the Cav’s tanks and armoured vehicles get over the Klyazma as they go through brave mobilised reservists who should never have been sent into a fight like this. By the time the trailing 2nd Armored Division reaches that river, the Blackhorse Cav’ is already closing in upon the Mulino military base. Gromov and STAVKA are gone from here and there are just more riflemen armed with AK-47s supported by the old, ineffective tanks to try and stop its capture. Onwards, always onwards, the Blackhorse Cav’ go. The industrial city of Dzerzhinsk beside the Oka River is bypassed as the charge is made directly for Gorki. Since Moscow fell, the Coalition has considered Gorki to be Gromov’s de facto capital and the Americans want to take it. Alas, Gorki will not fall today.

Outside of where Sormovo Airbase is, next to the ruins of the Sokol Aircraft Plant (American bombing has destroyed one of the Union’s largest aviation manufacturing facilities), the Blackhorse Cav’ are brought to a halt. Even with the supporting efforts of AH-64 Apaches and A-10 Thunderbolts, there is no getting past an effective defence being mounted. This is repeated at Strigino Airport too. Both of these open areas of ground are located just outside the city itself and dug-in defenders from the Second Army are present. Back into the urban areas just behind them where Gorki’s western outskirts are, there are more defenders too. Artillery is within civilian areas and there are missile teams there which harass American aircraft enough to see the free-for-all witnessed earlier in the day with air power used as it was now ending. Infantrymen with the 2nd Armored Division come up and help to clear away the toughest defences at both the airbase and the airport but there are riflemen who fall back into Gorki itself once pushed out of open ground. The city beside the Volga is full of many civilians who are now in areas where the Americans would have to blast their way through if the effort is to continue with a full-on drive forward. The Americans come to a halt in terms of going into Gorki directly. However, they are still busy. Air attention is shifted away from the western reaches of Gorki to elsewhere to try to impede the movement of more Second Army units into the parts of the city on this side of the Volga. Gorki extends across the very base of the Oka and on the far side of the Volga too. The defended bits can be cut off. The 1st Cavalry Division doesn’t cross the Klyazma to follow the rest of the III Corps and instead goes over the Oka downstream near to Pavlovo. American tanks are quickly isolating Gorki from the south and meet surprised Second Army units during the night as they do so. Much of this reserve army is yet to reach where the frontlines are in Gorki and the Americans stop them from doing that by blasting their way through them away from urban areas. Orders from McCaffrey at EURCOM headquarters sent down the line to the III Corps are that the city’s defenders are to be pinned and bypassed: further III Corps units coming up with encircle the city until it eventually falls. Gorki will not provide the impediment to further advances deeper and deeper into the Union as STAVKA wishes it will be. The Americans plan to push onwards and, if need be, they will go all the way to the Urals.

Other events today elsewhere away from here and any other portions of the frontlines of the war will make that all unnecessary though. Further instances of the switching of sides are taking place and they are widespread with much significance.

[stevep]

May 30, 2020 13:52:35 GMT hussar01 said:

Post-war Russia? Broken apart much like the former Yugoslavia? Kaliningrad to Poland? New name Królewiec? With special autonomous status within Poland? A broken up Russia would bz defailt make it a threat to no one. China would welcome it. A broken up Russia whose states future independence guaranteed by the US?

  hussar01,

  I doubt this if by Russia you mean the Russia 'republic' itself being cut apart.  That would cause a lot of problems as there's a strong national identity in Russia which is only likely to be hardened by attempting such.  Possibly might have occurred if the allies hadn't been drawn in as aid to Primakov and the Central Asia Republic, whether by the west or China might have secured a longer split between the 'Siberians' and the west Russians but even so I'm not sure how long that would last.  Plus they would still have their nukes and other capacities, even if significantly reduced for the moment.  If you mean the 'near abroad' being split off, as happened OTL with the other republics of the former USSR escaping from Moscow's control then most of that will happen but as OTL a determined ruler [Putin] can still make himself an awkward neighbour.

  To really end Russian control of Kaliningrad would mean deporting the Russian population to the Russian heartland.  True that's basically what happened to the German population after 45 but ethnic cleansing, even if by deportation rather than slaughter is unpopular in the west nowadays and also the allied aim is to depose the 'killer' of the US President and his regime and get a [reasonably] friendly government in Moscow.  Which wouldn't be helped by a deportation of 'innocent' Russian civilians from the enclave.

  Steve

 

[stevep]

May 30, 2020 19:46:52 GMT James G said:

May 30, 2020 9:22:54 GMT stevep said:

  James G ,

  Well things are rolling along and look to be going well.  It does seem a bit pointless having small British and Polish forces in Moscow while there is still disorder in Leningrad, plus it complicates things logistically and language wise. 

  I think the main danger with the odd sniper or unrest is if the US goes in guns blazing and a number of civilians are casualties, which is likely to cause a lot of unrest.

  The situation in Belarus and Ukraine is going to be 'interesting' with US [mainly] forces on the ground and mixed opinion in those states as to whether to be independent or rejoin the union under Primakov, let alone central Asia.  The US does have the military power at the moment but are they willing to defend such areas against Primakov if he can make it look like he has popular support for his cause?  Ditto for the Kaliningrad enclave.

  Also Primakov is probably going to want the US to stop attacking SSBNs, both because their important assets he would want to control and because he would have a point if a commander under attack decides to launch before their sunk.

  I predict that if the US isn't out by winter they will probably be there for some time.  Probably facing growing unpopularity.  One possibility once Gromov's faction is destroyed and he's dead or captured is that the allies quickly withdraw from Russia, possibly excluding Kaliningrad for the moment, into Belarus and Ukraine and start preparing for plebiscites under their supervision on independence or rejoining the union.  Trying to present Primakov or his successor with a fait accompli.  Possibly also accompanied by legal recognition of the assorted Central Asian states and trade and other deals with them.

  In terms of my earlier post what I meant was that, especially if they think a successor to Primakov - 'after his accident' - might have been involved in or know who was actually responsible for Kerrey's assassination, that they get a warning about what happened, in a way that can't be formally traced back to the US.  Basically a warning to behave or else.  After all any Primakov successor is unlikely to want to broadcast that he was responsible for the war and the American intervention that put them in power as while it would cause political uproar in the US if believed their also admitting having benefiting from the act.  Which could see them and their regime being less than popular both in the US and possibly inside the Union as it prompted the US/allied invasion and the destruction of much of the Union's military and a lot of deaths and suffering.

  Steve

Brits and Poles in Moscow are few in number but, yes, overall it does seem pointless. I know that British forces went to Kuwait City in 1991 though when that was far from where the main body of British forces were. My thinking on this was regard to the political purposes of the Coalition.
The Americans really want to hand over general security to Primakov forces. They'll stay at key sites but the danger of a spiralling situation with locals and foreign occupiers is something no one would really want.
Belarus and the Ukraine might return to the Union whereas Central Asia and the Baltics are long gone. Kaliningrad is a problem which I am thinking on. I'm unsure on whether to have the Coalition give up ideas of independence for Minsk & Kiev or force the issue as you suggest.
I'd forgotten about the SSBNs and attacks on them. I'll need to think on that.
The US will want to be out, so too the Brits and others. Out of Russia for sure, maybe not elsewhere.
I still need to decide on where we go with Gromov/Primakov and 'the truth' for the end. It will be decided as I reach that point because I am still really unsure.

  James G,

  Thanks for the reply.  In terms of Belarus and Ukraine I was thinking offering a vote on independence or rejoining the Union which could give the population a genuine choice, at least while their under effective allied control.  Given that I expect Primakov to be dead shortly, or possibly extremely discredited and further uncertainty, if not disorder in Russia then reunion may look less than rewarding plus you might get promises of western economic support and access to western markets, technology, loans etc.  Given that there has been a period of instability in the union which is also looking very weak and there is a strong independence movement in Ukraine at least - not sure about Belarus - and both have been occupied due to apparent activities by Moscow there are significant incentives that in the former at least your likely to see a vote for independence.

  Of course this raises the issue of the Russian speakers in both states, especially in the eastern Ukraine which probably leads to problems similar to OTL but I doubt that would be avoided.  The alternative with a Ukraine back in the Union would probably be a large resentful number of Ukrainians inside this Union.

  Its a difficult issue as to what happens with the 'truth'.  There's no right answer but if Robb tries to cover up its likely to come out sooner or later and be explosive.  Alternatively being open about being fooled is going to open up a political shit-storm both inside the US and aboard and raises the question of what to do about Primakov, who they have pretty much put in control in Russia but are now claiming was responsible for the assassination.  Would there be the will for another round of conflict to remove him, possibly lengthy, especially if he escapes to Siberia and with Robb's Presidency discredited?  Hence why I'm wondering if a secret hit to remove him then withdraw might be the most attractive option.  Of course again if/when news leaks out it has the worst of both worlds in terms of the US being fooled into a war to put the man behind the assassination of their President into power in Moscow and then doing an assassination of him which is potentially very destablising. 

  If the truth had come out earlier while Gromov was still a viable Russian leader I could have seen Robb eating humble pie and seeking to mend fences, as well as helping him take down Primakov and his regime, but maintaining the independence of the Baltics at least.  Which would still have been very messy.  However having trashed so much of his forces, considerably helped by his incompetence, and with his support collapsing that's not a viable option. 

  Whatever way you end up choosing its going to be difficult for all involved I suspect.

  Steve

[James G]

May 31, 2020 10:20:09 GMT stevep said:

May 30, 2020 19:46:52 GMT James G said:

Brits and Poles in Moscow are few in number but, yes, overall it does seem pointless. I know that British forces went to Kuwait City in 1991 though when that was far from where the main body of British forces were. My thinking on this was regard to the political purposes of the Coalition.
The Americans really want to hand over general security to Primakov forces. They'll stay at key sites but the danger of a spiralling situation with locals and foreign occupiers is something no one would really want.
Belarus and the Ukraine might return to the Union whereas Central Asia and the Baltics are long gone. Kaliningrad is a problem which I am thinking on. I'm unsure on whether to have the Coalition give up ideas of independence for Minsk & Kiev or force the issue as you suggest.
I'd forgotten about the SSBNs and attacks on them. I'll need to think on that.
The US will want to be out, so too the Brits and others. Out of Russia for sure, maybe not elsewhere.
I still need to decide on where we go with Gromov/Primakov and 'the truth' for the end. It will be decided as I reach that point because I am still really unsure.

  James G ,

  Thanks for the reply.  In terms of Belarus and Ukraine I was thinking offering a vote on independence or rejoining the Union which could give the population a genuine choice, at least while their under effective allied control.  Given that I expect Primakov to be dead shortly, or possibly extremely discredited and further uncertainty, if not disorder in Russia then reunion may look less than rewarding plus you might get promises of western economic support and access to western markets, technology, loans etc.  Given that there has been a period of instability in the union which is also looking very weak and there is a strong independence movement in Ukraine at least - not sure about Belarus - and both have been occupied due to apparent activities by Moscow there are significant incentives that in the former at least your likely to see a vote for independence.

  Of course this raises the issue of the Russian speakers in both states, especially in the eastern Ukraine which probably leads to problems similar to OTL but I doubt that would be avoided.  The alternative with a Ukraine back in the Union would probably be a large resentful number of Ukrainians inside this Union.

  Its a difficult issue as to what happens with the 'truth'.  There's no right answer but if Robb tries to cover up its likely to come out sooner or later and be explosive.  Alternatively being open about being fooled is going to open up a political shit-storm both inside the US and aboard and raises the question of what to do about Primakov, who they have pretty much put in control in Russia but are now claiming was responsible for the assassination.  Would there be the will for another round of conflict to remove him, possibly lengthy, especially if he escapes to Siberia and with Robb's Presidency discredited?  Hence why I'm wondering if a secret hit to remove him then withdraw might be the most attractive option.  Of course again if/when news leaks out it has the worst of both worlds in terms of the US being fooled into a war to put the man behind the assassination of their President into power in Moscow and then doing an assassination of him which is potentially very destablising. 

  If the truth had come out earlier while Gromov was still a viable Russian leader I could have seen Robb eating humble pie and seeking to mend fences, as well as helping him take down Primakov and his regime, but maintaining the independence of the Baltics at least.  Which would still have been very messy.  However having trashed so much of his forces, considerably helped by his incompetence, and with his support collapsing that's not a viable option. 

  Whatever way you end up choosing its going to be difficult for all involved I suspect.

  Steve

Those are some good ideas for how a future might go with the western republics. It might work too. But it depends on a lot of things. There are pre-POD votes in those countries for the Union - nine republics did it in early 1991 - and I had them respected in the story as the USSR-to-USS went a different way post-August coup. In the story popular revolts have hit Belarus and the Ukraine but pro-Union figures piggy-backed that and want to stay with Primakov's 'legitimate' Union. The people might be sold a story if Primakov's rule holds.
Yet, the Union has been dealt a death blow by American tanks/air power. That defeat and occupation is in everyone's face. Lies told by those who've gained power might not hold and they can also be forced out by the Americans if things go the wrong way for Primakov.

And 'the truth' matter is still to come. I have always planned to bring it out, at the most inconvenient moment, and that is approaching fast!
Still in the final stages of deciding how that goes.
Poor Gromov is in an ever-worsening state. His rule is so very doomed!

[James G]

86 – Rats are abandoning the sinking ship


US Marines near to Rostov stay where they are. Either side of them, Coalition forces coming out of the Eastern Ukraine go into the attack as they advance into Southern Russia. The defiant stand by the Union’s Forty–Ninth Army only the Lower Don comes to an end. Hundreds of tanks, supported by waves of aircraft & attack helicopters, tear into their flanks to open up passage through. It isn’t Rostov which those on the attack aim to capture but they will eventually do so before the end of the day. Much to the annoyance of those serving with the 2nd Marine Division, they have no involvement in that either. Hungarian troops and US Army reservists go into the city as elements of the Eastern European Corps complete their operation to pound their way through the resistance offered by the 19th Motor Rifle Division. It is the US Marines which keep the Union’s attention facing to their front but the entrance into Rostov when opposition collapses is something that they can only watch from afar. Union forces surrender to the Hungarian’s 80th Mechanised Infantry Brigade and the American-manned 157th Infantry Brigade after they later proceed to come at those on the frontlines from behind. The 19th Motor Rifle Division is still firing on the US Marines up until the very end and are only giving up due to a complete destruction of their rear areas. In the grand scheme of things, when it comes to the progress of the war, this really shouldn’t matter. Enemy troops surrendering is good for the Coalition. However, the 2nd Marine Division would have much preferred to be the ones to which their long-term opponents outside Rostov laid down their weapons for. It is rather unfair.

The Eastern European Corps brought a small portion of its assigned units down to Rostov with most of the command’s units remaining up in the Donbas. In contrast, when the Polish I Corps attacks the 9th Motor Rifle Division to the east of Rostov, breaching the defensive line of the Don River, most of that force is here. Only the Poles with their 11th Armored Cavalry Division and the American 194th Armored Brigade are still in the Donbas: everyone else is here in Southern Russia. A three division attack goes forward upstream of Rostov. Polish troops with their 10th Mechanised Division fight Union Army units and locally-recruited Cossack volunteers on the edges of the small cities of Novocherkassk (an historic Cossack city) and Shakhty, while in between those two areas more Poles with their 1st Mechanised Division and the US Army’s 5th Infantry Division charge forward. They go over the Don and then the narrow Manych River on the way before spreading out once clear of water barriers. Air support rains bombs down from above on anyone in their way and those sighted up ahead too. The Poles break to the right, the Americans go straight ahead. Their tanks shoot at any distant targets which the air support has failed to silence and the infantry mounted in both division’s many infantry carriers aren’t called upon to dismount and dig-out opposition from anywhere. South of the Forty–Ninth Army’s forward positions on the Don, there is no one in the rear of any note that is capable of causing any form of slowdown to the advance underway. The Polish I Corps race through the North Caucasus.

Only once they get near to the city of Krasnodar do the 1st Mechanised Division meet serious opposition. US Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons are already engaging enemy units when the Poles show up on the ground. An accidental blue-on-blue soon occurs where a company of T-72s are attacked by the F-16s despite every precaution taken. The losses aren’t that serious though there will be Poles going home in body-bags because someone above them broke the rules. Other air support is far better directed. Without those Americans above, the victory won at Krasnodar wouldn’t have been as successful as it is and would have certainly be far more costly than it ultimately is. Enemy tanks are met by the Poles. These are T-55s but the ones fielded by the Union Navy’s marines here are up-gunned with additional armour add-ons. The 810th Naval Infantry Brigade is positioned to defend the coastline from further American amphibious assaults – there have been feinted moves at this; the US Marines are all up near Rostov and not aboard amphibious ships spotted out in the Black Sea – but now has enemy units coming from behind them. Their commander reacts well to the sudden Polish drive towards his rear and puts tanks in their way. In opposition, there are a lot of T-72s though and all that air power to be faced. Union tanks are blown up and BTR-60 infantry carriers rushing forward with the marines forming brigade’s on-hand operation reserve are hit too, many before they can unload their cargoes of riflemen. A major defeat is incurred by 810th Naval Infantry Brigade detachments sent away from the coast. The 1st Mechanised Division moves on from the Krasnodar area soon enough. They don’t go into the city but instead move on the coast from inland. More Naval Infantry units are encountered as it gets dark. They are spread over a large area with a sea-based defence and the Poles come at them from behind using weight of numbers, air support and then are assisted to by shelling from US Navy warships too. Through the night, the marines guarding the Black Sea coast will be overcome. Novorossiysk and the Taman Peninsula will both be reached.

The 5th Infantry Division advances towards the city of Stavropol, another important communications link for the North Caucasus. Cossack volunteers are met on the way there and there are also a few Union Army reservists also run into where men marching towards the Don are encountered on the way to battle. Nothing of substance is met to slow down the drive of American forces deep into Southern Russia. The 5th Infantry Division isn’t regarded as one of the best units of the US Army and is on the deactivation list (that has been put off again and again over the past few years) but how far forward through enemy territory it moves today is impressive. Air support is key to that. Without it, only half the distance would be covered. The presence of enemy forces in the way is reported and then attacked long before the 5th Infantry Division’s units can reach them. When they do, they run through what survivors are left and stay on schedule to get where they need to be. Stavropol’s airport doubles as a Union Air Force training facility. When American tanks and infantry carriers get here, they see the destruction caused by submarine-fired Tomahawks and aircraft from the USS America. The facility was supporting Union air efforts over the Caucasus before being knocked out of action. The airport is located northeast of the city and is taken first as part of the securing of the transportation links. Entry into Stavropol is then made. Armed personnel are reported to be in here complete with tanks. A careful entry by an American armoured column is made to reach that opposition and test its reaction. That reaction is a rapid collapse. Men abandon their units and run. The few who remain don’t fire on the Americans and instead make a call for parley. There will be no defence of Stavropol and no need for the whole city to be taken by the 5th Infantry Division. The Americans can look to move elsewhere come tomorrow.


Down in Georgia, Union forces fighting there have no idea that Southern Russia is being overrun: the idea that the Americans and Poles are just over the mountains would be dismissed as ridiculous when the frontlines are meant to be on the Don at Rostov. American senior officers are made aware through the day of the speed of the advance but the commander of Joint Task Force Thunder, General Griffith, knows that that isn’t going to have an immediate effect on the ongoing fighting throughout this Coalition country. The Polish I Corps would have to reach the Caucasus Mountains, come over them and then enter Georgia itself for the battle to be significantly affected by that advance from the Don. That could take a couple of days. The more pressing issue at hand is the Union’s Fourth Army. His forces fighting near Kutaisi are holding the enemy back but more of Adjara is overrun through today and the fighting reaches the very edges of Batumi. Flights into the airport of transport aircraft are cancelled. The F-16s are still flying – making combat take-offs and daring landings – but the presence of the 23rd Guards Motor Rifle Division practically at the gates of this port city make the air support they can give limited. There is too much ordnance in the air and Camp Bowie is under artillery fire. National guardsmen with the 39th Infantry Brigade out of Arkansas are doing their very best but they are being driven all the way back to the sea.

From out there in the Black Sea, the USS George Washington is now on-station. America is having a brief stand-down and jets from that newly-arrived carrier are in Georgian skies. They are flying missions from distance at the beginning of today though the carrier is sailing at flank speed eastwards. More air missions can be launched and ordnance loads increase as the hours go by. Bombs and missiles come off the A-6 Intruders and F/A-18 Hornets, slamming into Union forces below. There is an especially bad friendly fire incident where a dozen national guardsmen are killed & wounded due to a communications mix-up but elsewhere the air attacks hit where they are supposed to. Still, despite all of that, the 23rd Guards Motor Rifle Division edges its way forward. Not much is left of this unit but it is enough. They continue to get closer and closer to Batumi. Things change come the evening. Just after five o’clock, the advances halt. Union riflemen – there are oh so few tanks left – halt where they are and start digging-in. US Navy aircraft still bomb them and the men with the 39th Infantry Brigade engage them in fire-fights, but there is no further advance. A surrender isn’t happening and no ceasefire is taking place yet forward movement is over. Orders from JTF Thunder are for American forces here to continue what they are doing in firing on them. Griffiths is informed a few hours later that the 295th Motor Rifle Division is no longer trying to advance near to Kutaisi either. They cannot go forward through the defence mounted there by American and Georgian forces fighting together but are no longer trying those suicidal efforts to do the impossible. Fighting, and the deaths which come with that, goes on for the rest of the day regardless. The Washington makes heavier strikes as well. Meanwhile, events developing elsewhere which brought this halt to the Fourth Army’s advance are slowly being revealed to explain all of this.

During the period where non-Russian republics of the Union were the tail wagging the dog, before Lebed took charge in Moscow, there were wide-ranging and truly significant changes in the post-Soviet military forces of the Union. The West focused on the cutbacks and withdrawals out of Eastern Europe. There was an awareness of what else was going on though not as much attention was paid to the rising ethnic dynamics of Union military units. In the past, the Soviets had mixed ethnicities across their armed forces. A unit based in one location through their empire was formed from men conscripted nationwide and they were all garrisoned far from home. It made sense to the Soviets and wouldn’t allow for any nationalistic revolt in one region to allow for separatists there to gain control of large numbers of troops in coherent units to oppose Moscow. Additions to the New Union Treaty upon the formation of this new country saw that all discarded seemingly without a care. The republics gained control over the make-up of the military. It was still the Union Armed Forces but the republics filled units based in their territory with their own people. There were many exceptions to this – Spetsnaz, the Airborne Troops, Naval Infantry and the Strategic Rocket Forces being the best examples – and even at the level of ‘normal’ tank & motor rifle formations it wasn’t fully complete. However, when the Union fell into civil war and then since the Coalition began Operation Flaming Phoenix, the effect is just what Soviet system was there to stop. Central Asian troops stayed loyal to their homelands when succession came. Ukrainian troops who’ve recently surrendered near to Moscow did so with the knowledge that their homeland was free of Moscow’s rule and they wanted to go home.

The Fourth Army is an Azerbaijan formation. Ethnic Azeris make up the majority of its personnel including the command staff. Azerbaijan has remained loyal to Gromov’s Union throughout everything. That is until today. President Ayaz Mütallibov in Baku is deposed and a former leader of the Azerbaijan SSR when it was part of the Soviet Union, Ilham Aliyev, takes control. Aliyev is a former KGB man who fell from favour with Gorbachev back in 1987. He lost power back then though has never gone away. A reinvention of who he is has long been in the making and with the support of forces in Baku, Aliyev seizes power when Mütallibov has a sudden and very unnatural heart attack. Aliyev orders a halt to the Fourth Army’s attack in Georgia – regardless of the situation on the ground – and begins the process of taking Azerbaijan out of this war, out of the Union and to independence. There is talk of freedom and liberty from Aliyev but Azeris aren’t about to get any of that. This is all about one man and his power trip. More rats are abandoning the sinking sink that is the Gromov regime.

[stevep]

Jun 1, 2020 19:12:41 GMT James G said:

May 31, 2020 10:20:09 GMT stevep said:

  James G ,

  Thanks for the reply.  In terms of Belarus and Ukraine I was thinking offering a vote on independence or rejoining the Union which could give the population a genuine choice, at least while their under effective allied control.  Given that I expect Primakov to be dead shortly, or possibly extremely discredited and further uncertainty, if not disorder in Russia then reunion may look less than rewarding plus you might get promises of western economic support and access to western markets, technology, loans etc.  Given that there has been a period of instability in the union which is also looking very weak and there is a strong independence movement in Ukraine at least - not sure about Belarus - and both have been occupied due to apparent activities by Moscow there are significant incentives that in the former at least your likely to see a vote for independence.

  Of course this raises the issue of the Russian speakers in both states, especially in the eastern Ukraine which probably leads to problems similar to OTL but I doubt that would be avoided.  The alternative with a Ukraine back in the Union would probably be a large resentful number of Ukrainians inside this Union.

  Its a difficult issue as to what happens with the 'truth'.  There's no right answer but if Robb tries to cover up its likely to come out sooner or later and be explosive.  Alternatively being open about being fooled is going to open up a political shit-storm both inside the US and aboard and raises the question of what to do about Primakov, who they have pretty much put in control in Russia but are now claiming was responsible for the assassination.  Would there be the will for another round of conflict to remove him, possibly lengthy, especially if he escapes to Siberia and with Robb's Presidency discredited?  Hence why I'm wondering if a secret hit to remove him then withdraw might be the most attractive option.  Of course again if/when news leaks out it has the worst of both worlds in terms of the US being fooled into a war to put the man behind the assassination of their President into power in Moscow and then doing an assassination of him which is potentially very destablising. 

  If the truth had come out earlier while Gromov was still a viable Russian leader I could have seen Robb eating humble pie and seeking to mend fences, as well as helping him take down Primakov and his regime, but maintaining the independence of the Baltics at least.  Which would still have been very messy.  However having trashed so much of his forces, considerably helped by his incompetence, and with his support collapsing that's not a viable option. 

  Whatever way you end up choosing its going to be difficult for all involved I suspect.

  Steve

Those are some good ideas for how a future might go with the western republics. It might work too. But it depends on a lot of things. There are pre-POD votes in those countries for the Union - nine republics did it in early 1991 - and I had them respected in the story as the USSR-to-USS went a different way post-August coup. In the story popular revolts have hit Belarus and the Ukraine but pro-Union figures piggy-backed that and want to stay with Primakov's 'legitimate' Union. The people might be sold a story if Primakov's rule holds.
Yet, the Union has been dealt a death blow by American tanks/air power. That defeat and occupation is in everyone's face. Lies told by those who've gained power might not hold and they can also be forced out by the Americans if things go the wrong way for Primakov.

And 'the truth' matter is still to come. I have always planned to bring it out, at the most inconvenient moment, and that is approaching fast!
Still in the final stages of deciding how that goes.
Poor Gromov is in an ever-worsening state. His rule is so very doomed!

  James G,

   OK thanks for that explanation of the status in the western republics. 

  Well the defection of Azerbaijan basically removes the immediate threat to Georgia.  Could still be some tension as to how much of Georgia they hold and for how long, plus what happens with the rebels withing Georgia.  Also it might be making Armenia rethink its position as well as if Azerbaijan ends up on the winning side, which now looks certain it will want to do so as well to protect its position, especially in regards to Nagorno-Karabakh and the lands connecting it to Armenia.  Unless they were to do something stupid like attack Azerbaijan which is likely to end up very badly for them but hopefully that won't be happening.

  Steve