Blue Dawn, 1994

[James G]

My new main story.

This tale begins with a prelude and in medias res. We will go back and look at the how and why we get there but - believe me - I will not be spending months worldbuilding!

[James G]

Blue Dawn, 1994


Prelude – Independence Day


1 – Act of war


It is July 4th, 1994. Robert ‘Bob’ Kerrey, the forty-second American President, is at Camp David.

Throughout the holiday weekend, Kerrey has been here at the presidential retreat in rural Maryland. In the United States, Independence Day celebrations aren’t done with the president taking part in parades or ceremonies: the day is not a party political event. Kerrey has been staying in the historic Aspen Lodge up here and not had much time for relaxation. There is a lot going on in the world, trouble overseas aplenty, and he is busy with those: there are issues to address a presidential response to with the Balkans, Iraq, the wider Middle East… and the former Soviet Union too.

Kerrey takes a break from a seemingly endless series of strategy briefings and goes for a stroll in the grounds. He is accompanied by his White House chief-of-staff with one Secret Service agent in-close while many others are nearby. The agent hangs back, eyes open though, as the president and his closest aide – here at Camp David working, not for a break – get some fresh air and a bit of exercise. A wounded & decorated veteran from the Vietnam War, the former US Navy SEAL that is Kerrey sets the pace while his overweight, constantly harassed aide struggles to keep up with him. They get some distance away from the lodge and all the stresses in there.

A lone shot rings out.

It is perfectly aimed. Kerrey’s head is the target of the bullet fired and the target is hit. Dead before he hits the ground, Kerrey’s life is snuffed out in an instant.

The president is dead.


Secret Service agents spring into action – a bit late others will later say – even before the bullet strikes home. That rifle crack is heard near and far. There are agents who rush towards the president while others fan out. Camp David, a supposedly secure location, is always on lock-down but now the security situation is intense. Few know that Kerrey is dead: they only hear the call ‘BULLFROG is down!’ (Kerrey’s codename was based upon his Vietnam service) over the radio stating that he has been shot without any more details yet given. A gunman is loose and he is to be hunted down: that is what those here busy themselves with.

Medical attention directed towards Kerrey is pointless. It is still tried though. Carried to one of the many buildings within the retreat’s extensive grounds, there is a frantic effort to try to do anything possible for the president. Nothing can be done though. The fifty year-old divorcee has been dead since the very moment that that bullet struck him.

Messages out from Camp David are sent far and wide. The Vice President is one of the first informed with other political, intelligence and military figures finding out soon afterwards. There is no public announcement yet. The fellow Democratic Party politician elected alongside Kerrey, who took office like he did last January, another quiet & serious politician, will soon take the oath of office. Then, at that late point, the country – and the wider world – will be told of what has happened.

Meanwhile, the hunt for the president’s assassin at Camp David continues.


The retreat is a US Navy base – officially called Naval Support Facility Thurmont – and they have a military presence here. The Marine Corps flew Kerrey here back on the Friday and there are likewise US Marines at Camp David. Those in uniform assist the Secret Service in trying to locate whoever has just murdered Kerrey. All efforts are thrown into this. Nothing is overlooked. Nothing is not checked. A couple of hours later, just after the American people find out that they have a new president, this all pays off.

The gunman – without his rifle though – is cornered. Calls come for him to surrender from where he is in the undergrowth. He refuses and challenges those surrounding him to have a try. The US Marines want to shoot him but the Secret Service want him alive. The latter win out. They get in among the undergrowth and, after a tussle, capture him. The assassin is alive and in custody. He’ll soon be out of here, flown by helicopter away to somewhere very safe (the Secret Service Academy outside of D.C.)…

…less someone try to shoot him themselves in a repeat of the last time a gunman killed a president.

A white-painted helicopter from HMX-1, no longer using the call-sign ‘Marine One’, flies Kerrey’s body to Andrews Air Force Base. The deceased president’s fiancée goes with him. She is distraught. Her relationship with the president has been one of media intrusion, with much cruelty from them, and she is assured that there will be no press at Andrews. This brings no visible response from her: she will certainly need a doctor herself.

After his own helicopter ride, the captured assassin will have those who wish to talk with him. The US Intelligence Community, all of those government agencies better known by their acronyms, will be all over him. There will be a fight for jurisdiction – which the Secret Service will win – but there will be much access to him from the ‘other government agencies’ granted. His identity is confirmed before midnight. The CIA, DIA & NSA all have open files on him: he is not a so-called clean-skin.


The man who has just murdered the American president, on Independence Day and on United States soil, is a known intelligence officer serving now with the successor organisation of the former Soviet KGB. He’s a Russian, a suspected ‘wet-work’ operative, who is without doubt acting on behalf of the Union of Sovereign States. America and the USS (better known as either the Union or Russia: call it what you may) are currently engaged in a military stand-off through Eastern Europe because the Cold War has continued with full vigour into the Nineties.

Now, today, one of their people has just killed President Kerrey.

It’s an act of war if there ever was one.

[James G]

President Bob Kerrey?
Union of Sovereign States?
Blue Dawn!?

We'll find out soon enough!

[lordroel]

Mar 6, 2020 19:15:01 GMT James G said:

My new main story.

This tale begins with a prelude and in medias res. We will go back and look at the how and why we get there but - believe me - I will not be spending months worldbuilding!

Om my god, the UN is going to invade the United States, now you don it James G, the black choppers are coming.

[James G]

Mar 6, 2020 19:43:50 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 6, 2020 19:15:01 GMT James G said:

My new main story.

This tale begins with a prelude and in medias res. We will go back and look at the how and why we get there but - believe me - I will not be spending months worldbuilding!

Om my god, the UN is going to invade the United States, now you don it James G , the black choppers are coming.

No, not the case at all!

[lordroel]

Mar 6, 2020 19:52:49 GMT James G said:

Mar 6, 2020 19:43:50 GMT lordroel said:

Om my god, the UN is going to invade the United States, now you don it James G , the black choppers are coming.

No, not the case at all!

A then it just your average American-Russian war then, okay, then the black choppers can go back to their secret UN basses.

[lordroel]

If James G does not mind, i present you:

[hussar01]

1994, Yugoslavia still fall apart and civil war ongoing?

[hussar01]

Since the cold war is ongoing, I guess the Seawolf class was not limited to 3. With the Cold War ongoing, my guess is the B-2 program budget will not be cut in 1992 and more than the IOTL 20 to be built. The Seawolf and B-2 in 1994/1995 would be truly game-changer technology.

[lordroel]

Mar 6, 2020 21:00:29 GMT hussar01 said:

Since the cold war is ongoing, I guess the Seawolf class was not limited to 3. With the Cold War ongoing, my guess is the B-2 program budget will not be cut in 1992 and more than the IOTL 20 to be built. The Seawolf and B-2 in 1994/1995 would be truly game-changer technology.

Like many other stuff i guess.

[James G]

Mar 6, 2020 19:54:12 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 6, 2020 19:52:49 GMT James G said:

No, not the case at all!

A then it just your average American-Russian war then, okay, then the black choppers can go back to their secret UN basses.

Well... average wouldn't be the correct term. No black helicopters.

Mar 6, 2020 20:40:29 GMT lordroel said:

If James G does not mind, i present you:

[iframe title="Twitter Tweet" class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered" id="twitter-widget-0" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="true" style="padding: 0px; border: medium; border-image: none; width: 500px; height: 424.82px; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; display: block; visibility: visible; position: static; min-width: 220px; max-width: 1213px;" allowtransparency="true" data-tweet-id="1236027735316840449"][/iframe]

Excellent banner.
Sorry to be a pain, but I know English isn't your first language so this correction isn't a criticism.
"A president assassinated. The culprit: the Russians. The Americans responds and its World War III."

Mar 6, 2020 20:43:57 GMT hussar01 said:

1994, Yugoslavia still fall apart and civil war ongoing?

Yes, and causing all sorts of troubles but ignored by much of the West as they have scarier issues.

Mar 6, 2020 21:00:29 GMT hussar01 said:

Since the cold war is ongoing, I guess the Seawolf class was not limited to 3. With the Cold War ongoing, my guess is the B-2 program budget will not be cut in 1992 and more than the IOTL 20 to be built. The Seawolf and B-2 in 1994/1995 would be truly game-changer technology.

The US armed forces, much of NATO too, will be very different.
Russia though, the three years between 1991 to 1994, will be going in the opposite direction.

Mar 6, 2020 21:02:04 GMT lordroel said:

Like many other stuff i guess.

Yes, very true. Changes aplenty.

[hussar01]

Yes, the economic collapse post-Cold War actually started in the tail end of the Cold War for very good reasons. Their economic model simply collapses due to organic reasons. Reason for malinvestment, deferred maintenance, eating through their seed stock so to speak and just general sense of management irresponsibility meant the economy just finally paid the piper for all these years of horrendously bad policy and planning. The collapse began in earnest at the end of the cold war and there is no way if this continued that this ship od state turned around. Things could have only gotten worse as they at best put bandages on a sucking chest wound. Interesting to see the world you will have built in this new timeline.

[lordroel]

Mar 6, 2020 23:00:06 GMT James G said:

Excellent banner.
Sorry to be a pain, but I know English isn't your first language so this correction isn't a criticism.
"A president assassinated. The culprit: the Russians. The Americans responds and its World War III."

A but that is part of my clever plan, because if ever there is a lordroel impostor online with perfect English, you know it is not me.

[stevep]

Mar 6, 2020 19:18:47 GMT James G said:

President Bob Kerrey?
Union of Sovereign States?
Blue Dawn!?

We'll find out soon enough!

James G,

  Well this is different.  The USS will no doubt deny it and claim he was a rogue acting on his own, or that he's an innocent citizen who is being scapegoated, especially since he didn't have the gun with him but I think the USA is going to war with them.  Question might be who is going to support them in NATO?  Plus how srtong relatively is the USS? - Think I will start calling it Russia to avoid the almost certainly of confusion, especially since A and S are neighbours on the keyboard.

  I'm guessing that Russia includes Belorussia and Ukraine at least and probably some of the other former SSRs that don't manage to escape the collapse of the USSR.  However expecting that most/all of the E European states have broken away and are in or supported by NATO and that E Germany has been absorbed by W Germany.  Big issues, other than opinion inside NATO might be the Central Asian states and also relations between Russia and China. 

  Blue Dawn makes a parallel with Red Dawn, either the original story or your TL so wondering if the US is going to be planning something dramatic.

  I forgot that OTL Kerry didn't run until 2004 so 1992 is 12 years earlier than OTL which means some butterflies and I noticed you didn't name his VP, who is now President.  One possibility of course is Bill Clinton but could be a lot of other options.  I also noticed you mention on Kerry and his VP that "who took office like he did last January" which would suggest Jan 1994 or possibly 1993.  Since the election cycle would have occurred in 1992 I wonder if Kerry was himself a VP pick and something happened to the President elected in 92 - either death or some scandal that forces his resignation. 

  It could even be he was assassinated and the assassin then killed by a 3rd party.  When you say they don't want the assassin killed like that last time a President was assassinated initial thoughts was Kennedy in 1963 but of course something could have happened more recently.  Although if a President had been assassinated in Jan 94 I suspect the secret service would be a lot more intrusive so think this is a low probability event.

  Anyway an interesting start and gives a different background.  Wonder of we will avoid a lot of nukes flying TTL however?

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 7, 2020 7:34:29 GMT hussar01 said:

Yes, the economic collapse post-Cold War actually started in the tail end of the Cold War for very good reasons. Their economic model simply collapses due to organic reasons. Reason for malinvestment, deferred maintenance, eating through their seed stock so to speak and just general sense of management irresponsibility meant the economy just finally paid the piper for all these years of horrendously bad policy and planning. The collapse began in earnest at the end of the cold war and there is no way if this continued that this ship od state turned around. Things could have only gotten worse as they at best put bandages on a sucking chest wound. Interesting to see the world you will have built in this new timeline.

Nothing Gorbachev, or nor anyone else, can change this, yes. They were taking on water, going down by the head and with nowhere near enough lifeboats.
Part One of this story will be a 'Russia screw' of epic proportions.

Mar 7, 2020 7:42:01 GMT lordroel said:

A but that is part of my clever plan, because if ever there is a lordroel impostor online with perfect English, you know it is not me.

Cunning plan. You'll go far!

Mar 7, 2020 10:37:10 GMT stevep said:

James G,

  Well this is different.  The USS will no doubt deny it and claim he was a rogue acting on his own, or that he's an innocent citizen who is being scapegoated, especially since he didn't have the gun with him but I think the USA is going to war with them.  Question might be who is going to support them in NATO?  Plus how srtong relatively is the USS? - Think I will start calling it Russia to avoid the almost certainly of confusion, especially since A and S are neighbours on the keyboard.

  I'm guessing that Russia includes Belorussia and Ukraine at least and probably some of the other former SSRs that don't manage to escape the collapse of the USSR.  However expecting that most/all of the E European states have broken away and are in or supported by NATO and that E Germany has been absorbed by W Germany.  Big issues, other than opinion inside NATO might be the Central Asian states and also relations between Russia and China. 

  Blue Dawn makes a parallel with Red Dawn, either the original story or your TL so wondering if the US is going to be planning something dramatic.

  I forgot that OTL Kerry didn't run until 2004 so 1992 is 12 years earlier than OTL which means some butterflies and I noticed you didn't name his VP, who is now President.  One possibility of course is Bill Clinton but could be a lot of other options.  I also noticed you mention on Kerry and his VP that "who took office like he did last January" which would suggest Jan 1994 or possibly 1993.  Since the election cycle would have occurred in 1992 I wonder if Kerry was himself a VP pick and something happened to the President elected in 92 - either death or some scandal that forces his resignation. 

  It could even be he was assassinated and the assassin then killed by a 3rd party.  When you say they don't want the assassin killed like that last time a President was assassinated initial thoughts was Kennedy in 1963 but of course something could have happened more recently.  Although if a President had been assassinated in Jan 94 I suspect the secret service would be a lot more intrusive so think this is a low probability event.

  Anyway an interesting start and gives a different background.  Wonder of we will avoid a lot of nukes flying TTL however?

  Steve

Rouge act, state-sanctioned, or something in between? The Americans will take it as Moscow-authorised and go to war.
NATO will be in a difficult position indeed. Through the story I will be using 'the Union' but Russia will do just as well.
The opening piece mentions a stand off in Eastern Europe - not central or western - so that should tell you the state of the situation before I show it. Things are not good for the Union in any sense.
Blue Dawn is chosen for the parallel to Red Dawn, yes.
Ah, it is en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Kerrey : someone forgotten by history, not the better known John Kerry. Two very different guys.
I had a VP named but I edited that out. I called him a 'quiet and serious politician' and so that can't be Bill Clinton. It isn't a matter of a real surprise but I will do a 1992 US election update and wanted to leave it until then.
Nope, with the last assassin reference I meant Kennedy. This assassination is in 1994 so 'last January' will be Jan 1993 when Kerrey and his VP are sworn in after winning in 1992.
I've been planning this for a while. It is very much like the novel Arc Light... though without the nukes to start it. Whether we will have them, shall be seen. The Union has such weapons, but by the time 1994 rolls around - the POD is in the update below, back in 1991 - the military state of the Union will be terrible.