Blue Dawn, 1994

[James G]

Mar 9, 2020 15:07:27 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 9, 2020 11:12:39 GMT James G said:

Anyone want to guess who Russia's Napoleon will be?

His name doe not begin with a P does he.

In 1992, Putin is a nobody and will continue to remain one through this TL. The security services are in a nadir and while they will come out of that, they will become very gangster-ist. That isn't somewhere suitable for him.

Mar 9, 2020 15:16:21 GMT forcon said:

I wouldn't think it would be Putin; he's more Siloviki than military. I'm probably wrong but how about Lebed or Zyuganov? My money would be on the former as a military man, but to be honest I'm not confident about it being either.

You're correct. A general it will be. The 'Napoleon' name that the West will deem him will not be accurate but that will be the impression of Lebed.

[James G]

6 – Russia’s Napoleon


Leader #5 of the Union, the fifth one in just six months, is someone chosen by the leaders of the nation’s component republics… excluding Russia that is. From Almaty, Kiev and Minsk, those who rule over those parts of the empire move against Khasbulatov. They pick someone who they believe is the only one who could save the Union. This has been done before, yet this time they tell themselves that they are correct in their choice. A puppet isn’t required but they do want someone amenable to their concerns. Their choice is someone whom they believe would be a leader for the whole of the Union, not favouring Russia over everyone else, and who has the strength to hold the nation together. Another weakling, another big talker isn’t required. They had a list of options and from that they have selected a military man.

The right choice for those politicians from the Union’s republics is Lieutenant-General Alexander Lebed.

Lebed is an Airborne Forces (VVS) officer. He’s only recently received his second general’s star and had been promoted from the role of deputy of the Airborne Forces to the service’s commander. This has come on the back of a remarkable past year for him. He had been in Moscow last summer when the Gang of Eight had wanted to use the military to crush the crowds opposing their putsch. Lebed had said no: a direct ‘no’ whereas other military officers had provided those coup-ists with an impossible set of circumstances rather than point-blank refuse to do their wishes. He’d been leading an airborne division at that point before moved to that deputy VVS post. Lebed played a major role in the operation in the Baltics at the beginning of this year and then came back to Moscow to help with the putting down of Makashov’s violent week-long illegal rule of the nation’s capital. It wasn’t just paratroopers which he had commanded during those fights but tankers and riflemen too: he knew how to lead and justified the faith put in him. Lebed had shown himself as a ‘can do’ officer. He was given orders and did them, well too. There were far more senior military men than him within the Union. Almost all of them had political ambitions of their own. None had the connections with the leaders of the republics like Lebed had though. Throughout his career, back as a junior officer, he’d always been on the fringes of politics. While in uniform, he’d served in Moscow assisting with the funerals of Soviet leaders during the early Eighties and then spent more time in the outlying parts of the empire during its dying days in the later part of that decade. Those leaders there, who’d survived the transformation of the nation into what it was now (whereas no one in Moscow had), knew him. They saw the potential in the man. Maybe they were making a mistake with Lebed? That was possible. However, they didn’t believe that they were. They saw a strongman alongside someone who was willing to listen to them. There would be no more repeats of Makashov turning Moscow into a battlefield nor any hesitation over having to fight against rebellions on the empire’s fringes as Khasbulatov was beginning to show.

With their backing, which made sure that the Union’s still weak intelligence services were compliant, Lebed takes charge in Moscow. With no more than a company of paratroopers and moving openly in the middle of the day, he marches into the (bullet-scared) Kremlin and deposes Khasbulatov. There are no shots fired. The Kremlin guards stand down and Lebed has Khasbulatov sign a letter of resignation. Those who aren’t present will later imagine that there was more drama to it than there really is. Khasbulatov doesn’t fight. There are men with guns here but more than that, he has in the preceding hours received messages from the republics where they have openly stated their opposition to his continued rule. Lebed allows Khasbulatov to leave: there is to be no shooting of him. The man has failed but he has done nothing worthy of killing. His safety will be ensured as long as his retirement is quiet and he no longer troubles the Kremlin.


Because he was a military officer who was seen as marching into Moscow and deposing the leader with force, outside the Union that name ‘Russia’s Napoleon’ was granted upon Lebed. The understanding wasn’t there overseas with the exact circumstances of his power grab. The Union remained something much misunderstood abroad. Rapid changes in leadership, fighting on the streets of Moscow and the occupation of the Baltics gave quite the negative impression. It was still the Soviet Union in the eyes of many too. Lebed was a man only seen by the West when wearing his uniform. They watched him assert control over the nation whose leadership he had taken and there was fear there of him. It was thought in some places that he might which to bring the Union back to what it had been before in terms of a real superpower, not the shadow of one which it had so recently turned into. Lebed’s history of being so intimately involved in the war to seize Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania was known too. There were observations from afar of how Lebed was acting domestically which also gave that impression of a general ruling roost backed with the force of guns. It was believed that when he announced the economic measures which he did, going in a different direction to what his immediate predecessor had done, that Lebed was bossing the republics around and they were frightened into doing his will.

Not everyone was taken in by this false impression of Lebed and his leadership of the Union though. Those at the top rungs of many governments in the West received reports from their intelligence services on what the situation was really like within the Union. Lebed himself was better understood too by those who met with him. Following Gorbachev, those who had held the leadership before Lebed had not really met with the heads of foreign governments. Lebed did so. Within two months of taking office, through the summer of 1992, the West gets to know him a bit better. The strongman routine isn’t an act yet Lebed tries not to make himself any enemies. Everything which happened during that short time when Makashov held Moscow is something that is forgotten… well, if not totally removed from memories then shoved aside. Lebed isn’t going to bring back the Soviet Union. He assures those leaders from Europe, Asia and North America that he meets with that he doesn’t want confrontation. There are assurances made, ones backed up by action, that the withdrawals of Soviet era military forces from the now free countries of Eastern Europe will continue. In addition, Lebed proposes a major demilitarisation of nuclear forces which will be led by the Union without conditions: he invites the West to do the same yet doesn’t say that his actions will be dependent upon theirs as others before him had.

There are things he will not do though. The West wants to see a withdrawal of Union forces from the Baltics. President George Bush, meeting with Lebed at the UN in New York, pushes him on this matter. Those are internationally recognised independent nations under Union military occupation. Bush will not budge when Lebed wants to take steps to improve relations unless there is a withdrawal. Lebed argues that he needs to ensure that the safety of native Russians in those countries but Bush will have none of that. There can be no un-thawing of relations until that matter is resolved to the United States’ satisfaction. The two men butt heads on this issue and their meeting doesn’t go as well as it could have in light of such a dispute. European leaders with whom Lebed himself has met with have likewise called upon Lebed to pull out Union forces but their positions have been less steadfast as Bush’s. The reason behind this is some of those economic initiatives which Lebed is the face of are actually ones designed to ‘save’ the Union which Khasbulatov had begun (he wasn’t given time and Lebed will take the credit). The West is in a recession and to both Western Europe & Japan there are sales being made of natural gas and oil. In the future, it is very possible that this could become quite the cash cow for the Union – the republic’s leaders are already beginning to siphon off the profits; corruption in the Union is not going to go away – as well as greatly aiding economies in the West. Therefore, while they join the Americans in protesting against Lebed’s refusal to withdraw from the Baltics, those other nations aren’t as firm as United States here.

Lebed is hoping that things might change with regard to the American’s position on this. 1992 is an election year in the United States. The recession that the West is having and global events – especially those in the Union with what Makashov did back in March – have played their part in how the lead up to the presidential election has gone. Directly influencing that isn’t something the Lebed could ever hope to influence but as November approaches, he waits to see what the outcome will be. A different president from Bush could maybe be someone who Lebed could possibly have better relations with…?

[stevep]

   James G ,

   Interesting but assuming that something else goes wrong as I don't think Lebed would be that willing to support a political assassination of a US President. Even if the incoming Democrat stays firm on the Baltics.  Especially since continental Europe seems more friendly on the issue.  Therefore assuming that there will be other factors raising tensions.  Quite possibly more internal problems in the union as Lebed's interests diverge from those who brought him to power, say on the issue of trying to stamp down on corruption.

  Looking good however.

  Steve

[stevep]

Mar 7, 2020 19:08:56 GMT James G said:

Mar 7, 2020 13:55:05 GMT stevep said:

  James G ,

    Thanks for clarifying on those points and apologies for the misunderstandings. 

   Also with the Jan 93 swearing in, forgetting that although the election is in Nov 92 they don't officially take the post until the following year. 

   I notice the "Part One of this story will be a 'Russia screw' of epic proportions." - which suggests things might well be a bigger task later on which I would expect if the US and its allies try to hold too much Russian/Union territory.

  Steve

 

Kerry / Kerrey is an easy mix-up to make.
Rule #1 of invading Russia: don't invade Russia. For rules #2 through to #999, see rule #1. 

  Should have replied earlier on this.

Rule #1000 - rules #1-#999 are overridden if your an all conquering Mongol Horde.

[James G]

Mar 10, 2020 9:36:20 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

   Interesting but assuming that something else goes wrong as I don't think Lebed would be that willing to support a political assassination of a US President. Even if the incoming Democrat stays firm on the Baltics.  Especially since continental Europe seems more friendly on the issue.  Therefore assuming that there will be other factors raising tensions.  Quite possibly more internal problems in the union as Lebed's interests diverge from those who brought him to power, say on the issue of trying to stamp down on corruption.

  Looking good however.

  Steve

Very much so!
There will be more leadership changes, violence and major conflict. The tail - the republics - will be unable to wag the dog - Russia and the Union as a whole - forever. There will be pressures rising and it will all explode again.
Next update is the US election. Any hope that a 'weak' Democrat will change things will be shown to be very foolish indeed. Europe likewise will not be complicit overall with this dangerous neighbour they have to deal with.

[James G]

7 – Read my lips…


“Read my lips… No more new taxes”.

Those words had been spoken four years beforehand at the Republican Party’s national convention by the nominee for the 1988 presidential election: George Bush. As Reagan’s vice president, Bush had been running to replace him when he said this. The remark was no idle comment. The soundbite was sold as a promise and used extensively by the Bush campaign to get himself elected. There would later be new taxes for Americans which Bush signed into law as president. It was a statement that he couldn’t get away from. His opponents, Democrats and fellow Republicans alike, make reference to this broken promise and say that Bush couldn’t be trusted to keep his word. Throughout the 1992 election, where he was seeking a second term, Bush will be haunted by that broken promise.


It could be argued that it wasn’t Bush’s fault that there were tax increases during his presidency. The economic situation which the country was in led to the belief that they were needed. The early Nineties recession struck. The causes of this were many. Interest rates were raised by the Federal Reserve, a major financial scandal (the Savings & Loan crisis) and then the 1990 Oil Shock were involved. With the latter, that came about when Iraq invaded Kuwait. Bush would go on to lead an international effort to successfully force Iraq from Kuwait by military means. Credit was given to Bush for the success of the Gulf War in terms of how it was fought and the coalition built too. Other countries – such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, but even Germany and Japan who weren’t directly involved – paid much of the costs of that war. However, while Bush is able to bask afterwards in the glory of victory, the recession is still ongoing. With hindsight, things aren’t as bad as they are portrayed but when it started, Bush is in the White House and thus many people blame him for it. Congress force these tax increases upon Bush. He can’t get anything done unless he agrees to them. It is thought that the United States can spend its way out of recession and so he, grudgingly, accepts them. It is a Democrat-controlled Congress which are behind them too but, as said, Bush is in the White House when they come in. Those same Democrats use his earlier pledges to not raise taxes against him.

Anyone who thinks politics is a game where the game is played fair is a fool.

America – like much of the West – is still in a recession when election season begins with an earnest at the beginning of 1992. Bush seeks to be re-nominated by his party (not too difficult as a sitting president yet still needing to be done) while the Democrats have what is called an ‘open field’. There is no stand-out candidate there who is sure to be a shoe-in for their nomination. Despite the recession, and the broken promise to use as a beating stick against Bush with his broken promise, several ‘big beasts’ have chosen to sit out the race. It is thought that Bush is still unbeatable after the success of the Gulf War and also that that maybe the recession will peter out too. Other Democrats step forward where their fellows won’t dare. The Iowa Caucus is the traditional first race but this year it holds no real meaning for the Democrats. A favourite son, Tom Harkin from Iowa, has thrown his hat into the ring and is sure to win there without standing a chance elsewhere. Those others in the race avoid Iowa and pay all attention towards the subsequent New Hampshire Primary. That contest is in mid-February and takes place just after the Ryzhkov-led Union of Sovereign States – still regarded as Russia or the Soviet Union to most Americans – have invaded the Baltics. That international outrage has a major effect upon the presidential race, especially for the Democrats. They can criticise Bush for apparent weakness on the matter (what could he really do though?) and talk tough themselves on how they would address this should they be president.

There are four serious candidates in the New Hampshire Primary. Jerry Brown is a former governor of California and a liberal left-winger. Bill Clinton is a New Democrat and the sitting governor of Arkansas. Bob Kerrey is a senator from Nebraska and a centralist. Paul Tsongas is a centralist former congressman & senator from Massachusetts. Among them Kerrey has been the early favourite though neither Brown nor Tsongas look weak. Most Americans have never heard of Clinton until a sex scandal will blow up at the end of January. At first, Clinton seems to have weathered that storm – and it makes him ‘interesting’ too, adding some colour to a dry campaign before this – but it seems that Tsongas might win in New Hampshire with a lot of that due to him being from a neighbouring state. Television images come from overseas though of Union tanks rolling across Latvia and their aircraft bombing the Estonia capital of Tallinn. It felts like the summer of 1990 again and into this comes Kerrey with a fantastic speech two days before the primary. He is at once regarded by his fellow Americans as standing more firm on the issue of criticising the Union than any of the other candidates are. He looks presidential when denouncing Moscow’s actions… some say far more than Bush does. Voters in New Hampshire go for Kerrey. Tsongas is a close second, Clinton third and Brown comes in fifth behind the no-hope campaign of Harkin.

After New Hampshire the momentum is with Kerrey. His campaign through following caucuses and primary focuses a lot on the actions of the Union. The attack line is that Bush isn’t standing up to Moscow and his fellow Democrats can’t be relied upon either to be strong on this issue too. He pays attention to the economy too, knowing that a presidential election isn’t won on foreign affairs, but his position on the actions of the Union is a very important part of his selling point. There were wins and second place finishes for Kerrey. Brown becomes his main challenger (embarrassment in New Hampshire long behind him), calling out Kerrey’s warmongering: Clinton falls away without fuss after being unable to take control of the narrative and watching Kerrey make use of many of his economic policies too. In the middle of March, there are primaries in Illinois and Michigan with these two delegate-rich states up for grabs. Neither look favourable to Brown but Kerrey doesn’t have them in the bag in the week leading up to them. However, then comes that coup in Moscow where the streets of the Union’s capital run red with blood. This is two days before the contests: perfect timing for Kerrey to make use of. Brown is made to look a fool when calling for a walk back in how Democrats should respond to events in the Union; Tsongas doesn’t do very well when he might have done and will leave the race following these big wins for Kerrey in the Mid-West. Fighting in Moscow continues during and leading up to a few more contests which Kerrey will win too. What is going on in the Union is a talking point across America. This is not something that can be ignored, not with CNN making regular broadcasts from there. In early April, following the return of some ‘normality’ to Moscow when Khasbulatov is in charge, the New York Primary takes place. As the frontrunner in the race, Kerrey is under fire from all sides and violence in Moscow isn’t on American television screens every night anymore. It is possible that Brown could make a comeback and stage a victory in of New York where there are a lot of delegates. Some in the Kerrey camp urge him to focus on Kansas, Minnesota & Wisconsin (the Mis-West, where is strong) who were voting the same day but Kerrey goes to New York and campaigns in that state. He wins handily. Brown is defeated not just here but overall now. The nomination schedule has many more contests left to play out, including Brown’s home state of California with even more delegates up for grabs than New York, but that is in June. The upcoming contests before then show only one (Oregon) where maybe Brown stands a decent chance of winning. The numbers don’t add up in terms of delegates to clinch the nomination. Even an outright victory in California isn’t going to be enough. Kerrey isn’t losing his momentum, not after that New York win, and so Brown will suspend his campaign.


Kerrey is back in New York in July. The Democrats are having their convention in the Big Apple with Kerrey formally nominated by the party as their candidate. His choice of vice president is Chuck Robb, a senator from Virginia. This pick isn’t about to excite the masses but Robb is selected because he is an important player in the party and a backer of Kerrey since the latter’s campaign really took off. It is thought too that he can help the Democrats win the South. The two of them are both regarded as strong when it comes to how they will deal with Lebed as well. Only a couple of weeks ago, that general has seized power in Moscow and there has been another wave of negative public attention paid to the Union. While domestic issues matter, and some in the party fear that the Kerrey–Robb ticket might have troubles on that note unless they properly focus, no one seriously doubts that they do of them are a credible force when it comes to that international matter. The question is though, can they defeat Bush?

It is August when the Republicans have their convention. They are down in Texas, the president’s home state. After being challenged by the outsider Pat Buchanan for the New Hampshire contest, Bush won there and every single subsequent one. He has appeared strong ahead of the convention. The event though is regarded by many as lacklustre, his speech too. There is a lot of nostalgia for Reagan and Bush only barely mentions the economy. That recession has been biting home hard for ordinary Americans throughout the previous months. The president focuses on the Lebed-led Union though. He is responding once more to Kerrey’s attacks. In addition, this presidential election season has seen headway made by serious independent challenger. Ross Perot, a businessman with quite the ego and money to spend on that, is has been running (though his campaign is currently suspended) and he too has taken Bush to task for his perceived weakness on this. Speaking in Houston, Bush promises to remain steadfast in United States policy towards the Union. He says that there will be no backing down to Russia’s Napoleon over the matter of the Baltics nor anything else. At times like these, he adds, America needs strong leadership.

The Republican convention gives Bush a boost in the polls but it isn’t a significant one. He is behind Kerrey. The Democratic candidate is out ahead and cannot be caught. It is the state of the economy which is causing this, despite the issue of the Union being much talked about. Voters are feeling the pinch. The Kerrey campaign continue to push their solutions to these while Bush doesn’t have an alternative that comes across well… and that broken promise from ‘88 is still being used against him.

The race goes on through September and into October. Perot comes close to re-entering the race though, in a surprise move, endorses Kerrey for the presidency. A clear lead in the polls that the Nebraskan senator has increases following this. There are some economic numbers which come out which suggest that despite on-the-ground feeling among the public, the economy isn’t as bad as it is with improvements around the corner. The voters aren’t convinced and watch as the Bush & Kerrey campaigns clash over the truth on that matter. November and thus election day come around. The polls narrow somewhat with Bush clawing back some ground. The Kerrey campaign is focusing less and less on matters related to the Union now with things being ‘quiet’ there (no more coups) but the economy is what matters. The public believe that Bush has mishandled that more than anything to do with foreign relations. Kerrey, while not being very exciting, is promising a fresh direction. He has the hopes of many people with him as well.


On November 3rd, Kerrey wins.

The upset is astounding. It takes a lot to unseat a sitting president, especially one who has only recently won a war. Kerrey is a good public speaker but not the greatest. His campaign has been given unexpected boosts from all quarters and Bush’s presidency had become tired & unwanted in the public eye. In January, the transition will happen and America will have a new president. The expectation for the Kerrey presidency will be that the Lebed and his Union will be challenged significantly by Kerrey, more so than it was under Bush.

[hussar01]

A Vietnam vet vs and Afghanistan vet. It will be interesting!

[James G]

Mar 10, 2020 20:37:43 GMT hussar01 said:

A Vietnam vet vs and Afghanistan vet. It will be interesting!

There will be a clash of wills over the matter of Eastern Europe.

[stevep]

Mar 10, 2020 20:37:43 GMT hussar01 said:

A Vietnam vet vs and Afghanistan vet. It will be interesting!

  Definitely, although since both have actual recent military experience that means they might be less reckless than some of the other possibilities as they have more knowledge of what a full scale war would cost everybody.

[stevep]

   James G ,

   One small typo in the last chapter.

He says that there will be backing down to Russia’s Napoleon over the matter of the Baltics nor anything else. At times like these, he adds, America needs strong leadership.

  I think there's a no missing there.

  Otherwise an interesting contest and background as to how Kerrey becomes President.

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 11, 2020 16:10:07 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

   One small typo in the last chapter.

He says that there will be backing down to Russia’s Napoleon over the matter of the Baltics nor anything else. At times like these, he adds, America needs strong leadership.

  I think there's a no missing there.

  Otherwise an interesting contest and background as to how Kerrey becomes President.

  Steve

Fixed: thank you.
I wanted Kerrey in there and so built things around that end goal. The primary season wasn't perfect for my need - and I have fudged things - but the aim was to show that foreign events on tv screens in the US could decide an election. America has no time for Clinton nor Brown with all this going on. Bush isn't being a wimp but the economic factor was there at the time and I think that would do him in against almost any opponent.
In OTL, Kerrey was a predicted frontrunner but floundered fast so overall I have been very kind here while relying on a true starting position.

[James G]

8 – Tail wagging the dog


The Republic of Russia gets itself a new president in January 1993 too. Lebed successfully campaigns and wins a democratic vote for the post which he has only been technically holding in an acting role since last June. He does what those before him have failed today and receive public backing for his leadership. Lebed has advantages to help him to this. He is the incumbent and he has the full power of the Union at his beck & call. There are some ‘irregularities’ (ballot stuffing, closing of polling stations early etc.) too while there are some candidates not allowed to run. In the vote, Lebed wins by forty-five plus per cent: he has several opponents who split the opposition. There is a low turnout as well. Still… Lebed has gotten himself elected with the backing of the Russian people. This gives him the legitimacy that no one before he has received. Lebed has campaigned on a nationalist line. He isn’t a nationalist but the people have responded well to the idea that here was a man to stand up for them.

Congratulations come from the leaders of the republics with his victory though there is some unease among those who are elsewhere at the strength of the nationalism employed by Lebed. Last year, when engaged in that dispute with the Americans over the Union occupation of the Baltics, Lebed had spoken out strongly on behalf of what he called ‘ethnic Russians’ in those occupied countries. They’d cheered him on then. They don’t like it when again he speaks of Russian-speakers to get himself elected and makes references to those who reside in the other republics. But, of course, these leaders in the outlying parts of the Union had put Lebed there and if he doesn’t do exactly as they wanted, it is on them after all.

The election has seen Lebed beat several candidates in a crowded field. Stand-out opposing candidates – those who receive plentiful votes – have been Gennady Zyuganov (a communist), Yuri Luzhkov (the seriously corrupt Moscow mayor), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (a real nationalist) & Yevgeny Primakov (a moderate). Lebed makes Primakov his prime minister and gives him much responsibility under a rewritten constitution. It will be Primakov who remains in Moscow while Lebed goes off ‘campaigning’ again. What Lebed does is politics, but not in the Western form of campaigning.


Acting in that fashion that gave him the Napoleon comparison from abroad, Lebed is down in the Caucasus where he uses Union military forces to restore order here. On Russian territory, not those of the Union republics, Lebed fights against separatists battling to illegally breakaway from Russia. Chechnya is where the real trouble is. Lebed crushes the long-running rebellion. He punishes those here who have not just sought their independence but also mistreated ethnic Russians who had long called the mountainous region their home. The Chechens have had their own way for too long and are punished. As he dealt with trouble in the Baltics, then crushed the usurper Makashov who took Moscow, Lebed wins by the correct use of military force... plenty of firepower and adaptive tactics. It isn’t easy though. There are many shortcomings that the Union forces have and the Chechens are rather good fighters. However, Lebed will have his way here. When final victory comes by April, that Russian nationalism angle will be once more played up by Lebed to the consternation of those leaders in the other republics who have Russian-speakers within their countries. The Ukraine and Kazakhstan each have millions of those whom Lebed calls his ‘fellow Russians’ yet whom the leaders in Kiev and Almaty consider their own people.

Lebed returns to Moscow on the back of his military success but is soon down in the southernmost extremes of the Union once more. He goes beyond the borders yet without troops accompanying him. Lebed travels to both Armenia and Georgia including areas of the latter country which are in rebellion against Tbilisi. Both of these nations didn’t join the Union of Sovereign States when it was formed two years ago. They have had many troubles in the meantime. Armenia has been through five leaders (challenging the Union for instability!) since the then president stood by in early ’92 when the Union supported component republic Azerbaijan in defeating the Karabakh revolt. Doing so had brought that first Armenia president down and the troubles afterwards have ruined attempts at effective leadership by successors who can’t match the challenges of the Azeris to the east and an always hostile Turkey to the east. In Georgia, those breakaway regions have fought to gain independence while there have been leadership changes in Tbilisi. An old ally of the Soviet Union’s Gorbachev, his former foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze, is now there. He wants an end to the troubles plaguing his country with many of those coming from ethnic Russians in armed revolt.

While not bringing either of these two nations back into the Union, Lebed wrangles out of them a partnership. They will join a commonwealth-type organisation for trade and security with guarantees given by Lebed of both firm independence as well as being free from threats from neighbours and internal rebels. With regards to Shevardnadze, Lebed wins him over by having the Abkhaz & South Ossetian rebels back down. There will be autonomous regions of Georgia – Lebed will not sell them out – but Moscow will keep them in-line. Another victory is won by Lebed with this. He seeks more too. The Baltics have those ethnic Russians in them as well. There are many in Latvia though less in Estonia and even fewer in Lithuania. All are useful regardless of actual numbers. Under Union supervision, there are collaboration governments in each. Lebed ensures that they now have strong Russian elements within them, all out of all proportion to their numbers. The politics at play here is to present to the international stage that those who live in the Baltics want to be part of the Union (formal readmittance for the Baltics is pencilled in for later in the year) and also to tie those republics to Russia once they re-join rather than having them as free to make alliances with others in the federation which Lebed dominates.


The other republics within the Union all have nowhere near the same population as Russia nor its economic power. The leaders in those distant capitals have for a long time been the tail which wags the dog when it come to deciding what would happen in Moscow with the direction that the federation will take. From out of none of them has one of their own taken charge of the Union, though there were some discussions about this before Lebed was chosen, but they have had their way to a significant degree in how the Union is run. Through ’93, much of the previous influence in being diminished. Lebed remains in charge and has much support. He is the strongman which they wanted but his agenda is his own. Pushing him into doing something they want is harder for the republics due to some leadership changes within their nations. Belarus and the Ukraine each see new rulers emerge during the year due to internal political factors. Those who replace Shushkevich and Kravchuk find out quickly that they don’t have the power that was yielded by their predecessors in Union politics. Kazakhstan remains headed by Nazarbayev (he is going nowhere) but his allies within the Union aren’t what they once were. What Kazakhstan does have though is a growing power throughout the smaller Central Asian republics: there Nazarbayev has influence, much more than he can have over what is going on up in Moscow. The stage for future disputes is being set here.

Powerplays within the Union are less important than they were last year because Lebed has brought that stability he was chosen to enforce. He has also overseen an improvement in the overall economic situation. Things on that front aren’t good but neither are they as dire as they were the year before. Lebed continues to claim credit though a lot of that does still belong to the replaced Khasbulatov who, during his short leadership, really pushed for the Union to export its energy resources to the hungry West with abandon. The Soviet Union had long sent oil and gas abroad in exchange for hard currency. Lebed does just what his predecessors have done just on a bigger scale when ruling the Union. Instructure for those exports is being stretched but the hydrocarbons are going out and in is coming the cash.

Then someone tries to put a stop to that.

July ’93 sees explosions take place. There are blasts which hit the pipelines which run from gas fields deep inside Russia through Belarus and the Ukraine on the way to Europe where the customers for it are. Damage is done to the flow of this cash-cow by targeted and carefully positioned explosions. In Moscow, the chairman of Gazprom is nearly killed by another bomb. Viktor Chernomyrdin, a Soviet-era politician who has survived all the national leadership changes, heads up this state company. The man has political ambitions but the head of that organisation is kept by Lebed because he has long done well. Only a little bit of luck saves him from assassination.

No one knows who is behind this and why they have struck. The Union has an ineffective domestic intelligence service which was under the outrageous influence of Belarus before Lebed forced the subservience of it to Moscow and Primakov in particular (he has ‘form’ when it comes to the intelligence world). Lebed has long been relying upon military intelligence, the historic GRU. They answer to the military high command though and while he himself wears the uniform and leads the Union, the relationship between him and the armed forces is rather complicated. Not willing to rely upon the GRU and wanting to see a challenger to them – divide and rule at its best –, Lebed allows for Primakov to oversee the transformation of the FSK into the FSB. This is more than just a name change. This will be an organisation which will grow in power and capabilities… in time beyond the grasp of Lebed and Primakov to the detriment of the Union. Neither man has the gift of hindsight and cannot see the beast which they will create. Old hands from some elements of the KGB will return to Moscow to join the new FSB and fast begin their nefarious work. It will take a few months but the new security force will locate and arrest some suspects for those bombings too. Questions remain as to the whole thing though, ones which answers to aren’t easy to understand.

There is something seriously wrong with all of this which Lebed keeps meaning to get around to. He takes his eye off the ball though, with consequences unseen now. There is distraction from abroad: President Kerrey.


After his inauguration, Kerrey doesn’t let the issue of the illegal Union occupation of the Baltics go. He denounces the illegitimate governments who Lebed sets up in those countries and pressurises American allies to do less business with the Union with regard to oil & gas exports. Kerrey is aiming to spend the United States out of the recession and things look promising on that front. Western Europe and Japan are each not so sure that following that lead is the best thing to do. When those pipeline explosions occur later in the year, it will be whispered in the corridors of power that those serve American interests. No one directly accuses Kerrey of somehow having something to do with it but the coincidence with how this serves his agenda is noticed. That agenda is one of economic blockade against the Union to pile on the pressure to get Lebed to withdraw from the Baltics. Such a policy isn’t a secret: from out of Washington, the media and foreign governments are made aware that this is what Kerrey wants.

Lebed responds. Yugoslavia began to fall apart when the Soviet Union did and that former country is a worse state than the latter in terms of conflict that has been seen. The federation that was Yugoslavia has broken for good and there has been fighting. The West is unwilling to intervene – Kerrey follows Bush’s position on that – in a multi-sided ethnic conflict. They have blockaded arms shipments to all though. Seemingly only to twist the tiger’s tail, Lebed sends weaponry to warring parties. He regards the Union still as a superpower when others don’t: a superpower can do this and so Lebed will. Moreover, the Union uses its UN role under Lebed than it has done since Gorbachev to frustrate matters with regard to the former Yugoslavia all while claiming that it is playing the peacemaker. Causing problems here is directed overall towards the Americans yet Lebed is playing a dangerous game with the Europeans on this note. There is a tightrope which he is walking: should he slip, there will be negative consequences for the Union.

Western Europe hasn’t been at Moscow’s throat because of the energy exports but also because Lebed has kept up the withdrawal of Soviet-era military forces from Eastern Europe. It is important to them that this happens – just as it is to the Americans – and Lebed continues to take steps which will win him favour throughout the Continent. When agreements were struck with regard to the then-divided Germanies back in 1990, a timetable for this had been agreed. There was supposed to be a full withdrawal by ’94. Lebed achieves this pull-out earlier than that date. The last troops are out come this September. He has brought home all those Union forces stationed abroad which the West wanted. In addition, there is still the ongoing decommissioning of extensive Union nuclear capability too. A formal agreement between Lebed and Bush on this never came about but the Union carries on standing down many nuclear forces. The best and most modern are being kept, naturally, but there are fewer nuclear delivery platforms (missiles, aircraft and submarines) than before. Such a thing isn’t just done for the benefit of the West but as part of Lebed’s internal reforms of Union military forces. He is making many changes and trying to transform them into a more capable force while ‘trimming the fat’. As part of that, Union Airborne Troops (the VVS: Lebed’s own service from which he still wears the uniform) along with Spetsnaz commando units increase while tank formations are eliminated. Cost factors are part of this but so too is the matter of making basing on home soil easier without such huge formations.

The biggest Soviet-era military presence had been in the former East Germany. Everyone from there, even those in East Berlin, are back within Union territory now. A far smaller presence had been in Poland and, while closer to home, personnel from there are among the last out of Eastern Europe this September too. Lebed personally oversees the final departure. This comes right on the eve of an unexpected (in terms of timing) major eruption in hostile relations between the Union and the quickly uniting West. Kerrey and Lebed will clash once more and the fault lines of their open dispute will be right here in Eastern Europe.

[hussar01]

Clash over the Ukraine?

[sandyman]

Great up date as usual I see Majour problems starting over the Baltic states comming.

[James G]

Mar 11, 2020 21:29:56 GMT hussar01 said:

Clash over the Ukraine?

There will be a Ukraine fact but Poland is going to be the issue.

Mar 12, 2020 9:07:30 GMT sandyman said:

Great up date as usual I see Majour problems starting over the Baltic states comming.

Mar 12, 2020 9:07:30 GMT sandyman said:

Great up date as usual I see Majour problems starting over the Baltic states comming.

Thank you.
Yep, from the Baltic to the Black Sea there is a volatile fault line that will set into motion a coming conflict.