Blue Dawn, 1994

[James G]

Part One – Transformation


2 – Bump on the head


Just short of three years earlier, back in August 1991, there is a putsch underway in the Soviet Union. Hardliners have detained General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev while the country’s leader is holidaying at a private retreat in Crimea. Tanks are on the streets of Moscow to support the new regime. The self-declared State Committee on the State of Emergency have seized power. Led by the Chairman of the KGB, those conspirators (called the Gang of Eight) give orders for the arrest of many figures who there are sure will oppose them.

Boris Yeltsin is on that list.

Only the other month, Yeltsin had been democratically elected to the position of President of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR): quite the mouthful! The RSFSR is a component of the Soviet Union and this newly created post which Yeltsin has won wasn’t something he was supposed to ascend to. He did though and he has been using it to its full extent to oppose Gorbachev and the Soviet Government. Yet, that doesn’t make Yeltsin an ally of those hardliners, far from it. They want to take things in an entirely different direction to what he foresees with both visions again not the same as Gorbachev’s. The Gang of Eight don’t need to be reminded about Yeltsin’s history of opposition. Back in 1987, he was the only official to ever have voluntarily resigned from the nation’s Politburo: on a point of principle too! He’s a populist who can mobilise the masses. He is an enemy of theirs.

This man will cause them trouble, using the bully pulpit of ‘Russian President’ to attack their seizure of power of the Soviet Union as a whole. They will have none of that. Killing him pre-emptively is discussed but disregarded. The Gang of Eight wouldn’t kill Gorbachev and they don’t plan to murder Yeltsin either. They’d rather have him in their custody and thus out of sight.


An unfortunate delay sees the KGB arrest team dispatched to his Moscow apartment just miss him before he leaves there. However, now through a stroke of luck of their own, a car breakdown holding him up, Yeltsin is detained just before he can reach the White House. This is the parliament building in the middle of Moscow where Yeltsin was sure to set up a power base in opposition to those now in the Kremlin. Others are gathering there already with Yeltsin on the way to lead them if he can. Now he will not do so.

There is a struggle. Yeltsin is no shrinking violet… he’s also had a stiff drink before leaving home. He resists arrest and, in the struggle, he gets a bump on the head. Fighting with those he angrily calls ‘Chekists’, one bashes the president of the RSFSR with the butt of his pistol. That shuts him up. The blow has subdued him effectively and the injury looks to be nothing serious to these untrained eyes. Those KGB officers taking him to Lefortovo can’t see the damage they have done though. They think that their rough stuff has frightened Yeltsin but instead he has slipped into a coma while in the car: the vodka in his blood hasn’t helped with the expanding brain haemorrhage. The arrival at the KGB prison within Moscow – the infamous Lubyanka no longer has its Stalin-era dungeons which can be found in a newer fashion at Lefortovo – sees this serious condition their prisoner is in now discovered. A transfer is made to a KGB medical facility though only after time is wasted with bureaucracy over this.

It is a miracle that Yeltsin doesn’t die. He will never regain consciousness though he will live: kept breathing through the use of machines.

However, without him at the White House building to defy those who have taken power, there will be different outcome for his country. Other resistance to the Gang of Eight congregates there and stands firm regardless but they are without a leader of the calibre that is Yeltsin. The consequences will be quite something.


The Gang of Eight fall within a few days. Even without Yeltsin, there is still strong opposition which has the support of the people. Those behind the August putsch don’t have the stomach to do what would be necessary to crush the opposition: go and shoot all of those civilians out on the streets around the White House. Senior military officers, including General Alexander Lebed – he’ll show up again –, tell them that that will cause many casualties while stressing it is the only thing that will work. The conspirators are unwilling to go that far.

The coup d’état has failed.

The KGB head, the nation’s vice president, the defence minister, the interior minister and others from the top of the Soviet Union’s elite walk away without a fight from the power which they have illegally seized. They had the military, the intelligence services and much of the Communist Party on their side but they didn’t have the people with them. They needed the people.

Gorbachev is freed from custody and returns to Moscow. He has those who’ve turned on him, many of whom he had thought were the closest of allies, arrested themselves. They are brought up on criminal charges. In the midst of this, one of those who was involved in deposing him now goes and shoots himself rather than face justice. Meanwhile, Gorbachev sets about doing all that the Gang of Eight had feared he would – which he wasn’t actually planning to at first – and begin to seriously take apart the functions of this one-party state. He will reform it rather than see it die but the reform will be harsh.

Back in charge, Gorbachev knows he had been weakened but he can, and will, claim he has won. There is no unifying figure who can effectively claim that he hasn’t. There had been politicians at the White House who stood firm against the Gang of Eight but each of them rapidly will fade into the background. There is no one who will be able to mobilise any more opposition to the general secretary from a position of strength. Maybe if Yeltsin had still been here…

He continues with the plans for the transformation of the Soviet Union into something new. That something new will be the New Union Treaty: the making of an improved & revitalised country to replace the dying Soviet Union.

[stevep]

Mar 7, 2020 12:52:14 GMT James G said:

Mar 7, 2020 10:37:10 GMT stevep said:

James G,

  Well this is different.  The USS will no doubt deny it and claim he was a rogue acting on his own, or that he's an innocent citizen who is being scapegoated, especially since he didn't have the gun with him but I think the USA is going to war with them.  Question might be who is going to support them in NATO?  Plus how srtong relatively is the USS? - Think I will start calling it Russia to avoid the almost certainly of confusion, especially since A and S are neighbours on the keyboard.

  I'm guessing that Russia includes Belorussia and Ukraine at least and probably some of the other former SSRs that don't manage to escape the collapse of the USSR.  However expecting that most/all of the E European states have broken away and are in or supported by NATO and that E Germany has been absorbed by W Germany.  Big issues, other than opinion inside NATO might be the Central Asian states and also relations between Russia and China. 

  Blue Dawn makes a parallel with Red Dawn, either the original story or your TL so wondering if the US is going to be planning something dramatic.

  I forgot that OTL Kerry didn't run until 2004 so 1992 is 12 years earlier than OTL which means some butterflies and I noticed you didn't name his VP, who is now President.  One possibility of course is Bill Clinton but could be a lot of other options.  I also noticed you mention on Kerry and his VP that "who took office like he did last January" which would suggest Jan 1994 or possibly 1993.  Since the election cycle would have occurred in 1992 I wonder if Kerry was himself a VP pick and something happened to the President elected in 92 - either death or some scandal that forces his resignation. 

  It could even be he was assassinated and the assassin then killed by a 3rd party.  When you say they don't want the assassin killed like that last time a President was assassinated initial thoughts was Kennedy in 1963 but of course something could have happened more recently.  Although if a President had been assassinated in Jan 94 I suspect the secret service would be a lot more intrusive so think this is a low probability event.

  Anyway an interesting start and gives a different background.  Wonder of we will avoid a lot of nukes flying TTL however?

  Steve

Rouge act, state-sanctioned, or something in between? The Americans will take it as Moscow-authorised and go to war.
NATO will be in a difficult position indeed. Through the story I will be using 'the Union' but Russia will do just as well.
The opening piece mentions a stand off in Eastern Europe - not central or western - so that should tell you the state of the situation before I show it. Things are not good for the Union in any sense.
Blue Dawn is chosen for the parallel to Red Dawn, yes.
Ah, it is en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Kerrey : someone forgotten by history, not the better known John Kerry. Two very different guys.
I had a VP named but I edited that out. I called him a 'quiet and serious politician' and so that can't be Bill Clinton. It isn't a matter of a real surprise but I will do a 1992 US election update and wanted to leave it until then.
Nope, with the last assassin reference I meant Kennedy. This assassination is in 1994 so 'last January' will be Jan 1993 when Kerrey and his VP are sworn in after winning in 1992.
I've been planning this for a while. It is very much like the novel Arc Light... though without the nukes to start it. Whether we will have them, shall be seen. The Union has such weapons, but by the time 1994 rolls around - the POD is in the update below, back in 1991 - the military state of the Union will be terrible.

  James G,

    Thanks for clarifying on those points and apologies for the misunderstandings. 

   Also with the Jan 93 swearing in, forgetting that although the election is in Nov 92 they don't officially take the post until the following year. 

   I notice the "Part One of this story will be a 'Russia screw' of epic proportions." - which suggests things might well be a bigger task later on which I would expect if the US and its allies try to hold too much Russian/Union territory.

  Steve

 

[James G]

Mar 7, 2020 13:55:05 GMT stevep said:

Mar 7, 2020 12:52:14 GMT James G said:

Rouge act, state-sanctioned, or something in between? The Americans will take it as Moscow-authorised and go to war.
NATO will be in a difficult position indeed. Through the story I will be using 'the Union' but Russia will do just as well.
The opening piece mentions a stand off in Eastern Europe - not central or western - so that should tell you the state of the situation before I show it. Things are not good for the Union in any sense.
Blue Dawn is chosen for the parallel to Red Dawn, yes.
Ah, it is en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Kerrey : someone forgotten by history, not the better known John Kerry. Two very different guys.
I had a VP named but I edited that out. I called him a 'quiet and serious politician' and so that can't be Bill Clinton. It isn't a matter of a real surprise but I will do a 1992 US election update and wanted to leave it until then.
Nope, with the last assassin reference I meant Kennedy. This assassination is in 1994 so 'last January' will be Jan 1993 when Kerrey and his VP are sworn in after winning in 1992.
I've been planning this for a while. It is very much like the novel Arc Light... though without the nukes to start it. Whether we will have them, shall be seen. The Union has such weapons, but by the time 1994 rolls around - the POD is in the update below, back in 1991 - the military state of the Union will be terrible.

  James G ,

    Thanks for clarifying on those points and apologies for the misunderstandings. 

   Also with the Jan 93 swearing in, forgetting that although the election is in Nov 92 they don't officially take the post until the following year. 

   I notice the "Part One of this story will be a 'Russia screw' of epic proportions." - which suggests things might well be a bigger task later on which I would expect if the US and its allies try to hold too much Russian/Union territory.

  Steve

 

Kerry / Kerrey is an easy mix-up to make.
Rule #1 of invading Russia: don't invade Russia. For rules #2 through to #999, see rule #1. 

[James G]

3 – The centre will hold


Before the failed August putsch, there had been several referenda within the Soviet Union. Democracy was being put to the test under Gorbachev’s leadership. Yeltsin had gotten himself elected to that post of ‘Russian President’ ahead of the Gorbachev’s preferred candidate and also up for public vote had been a proposal for a New Union Treaty. The initial treaty of bonding which formed the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics had been back in 1922 and wasn’t in anyway democratic. This one was. However, the vote had only been held within nine of the fifteen republics which formed the Soviet Union. The Baltic Republics (Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania), Moldova, Georgia and Armenia all didn’t take part. The first trio were on their way towards independence while within the others, plus down in the Ukraine where there was a vote but the whole issue was complicated, there was no desire for all of this.

Returning to power when the Gang of Eight fell, Gorbachev sought to push for the implementation of the votes for a new relationship between the republics which set off that failed coup d’état against him. There was a lot of opposition. It came from the republics themselves where they weren’t willing to accede to the demands of Moscow. Within Moscow too, the man who had led the resistance at the RSFSR parliament building, Yeltsin’s vice president Alexander Rutskoy, sought to maintain that public support which he believed he had. That was illusionary. The people who’d been on the streets weren’t there for him and the other non-entities who’d been making speeches from the White House. They were against the Gang of Eight. Rutskoy was easily side-lined by Gorbachev and those who tried following his lead suffered the same exclusion from debate and power. Among the republics, Gorbachev recognised that if the New Union Treaty was to pass and the country stay together, he needed to get the Ukraine on-side. This was to be no easy feat.

In the midst of what had been happening in Moscow, there had been an emergency session of the Ukrainian parliament. Parliamentarians in Kiev had voted to succeed from the Soviet Union, only months after the people had voted in that referendum to reform the country via the New Union Treaty. Gorbachev came to the Ukrainian capital to negotiate. He sought to change the minds of those in the Ukraine about breaking away. While in the city, Gorbachev didn’t just spent time with Leonid Kravchuk – the de facto head of state here – but also members of the parliament who had both voted for and against that succession ordinance. Concessions were offered by Gorbachev, inducements were made with regard to the status of the Ukraine within the transformed unified country.

Gorbachev got his way. In Kiev, that parliamentary vote was nullified and a new vote was held to stick by the people’s decision made a few months earlier. This process involved some trickery to overturn that succession decision. It met opposition from those who had wanted to take the Ukraine on a path towards independence. The political stich-up saw a move to take the matter to the streets. People power in Moscow had brought down the coup-ists there: perhaps it would work here? That effort failed. Kravchuk and those never onboard with any real independence didn’t face what the Gang of Eight had. Those in parliament were only fulfilling the people’s will. They were aided by Gorbachev’s actions in the days ahead of him coming down to Kiev where he had emasculated the functions and ability of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. While there was yet any real political ideology to rally around in the place of communism, no real alternative had yet to get off the ground. Gorbachev did this to keep his country together and those in the Ukraine do the same. They couldn’t foresee the consequences of this down the line though. They were thinking of the here and now where they maintained all that they had.


The Ukraine wasn’t about to breakaway now. Gorbachev is ‘saving’ the union. Through August, he manages to have success in keeping other republics onside with his reforms. Belarus, Kazakhstan and others remain as part of this country he is transforming into something new. In addition, within the Russian SFSR, there are autonomous regions who had been clamouring for individual concessions which weren’t going to set them on a path to independence but, still threatened the whole union. Gorbachev is busy travelling from here to there. He keeps the union together as best as he can. Aiding him in this is Nikolai Ryzhkov. It had been this man whom Yeltsin had bested to that presidential role earlier in the year when Ryzhkov had been running as a communist. Likewise with Gorbachev, Ryzhkov is no longer claiming to be one of those now and instead is running as an independent. He is alongside Gorbachev throughout it all, gaining power and influence all the time.

Those victories in Kiev and elsewhere come alongside failures elsewhere. There are those half dozen republics who weren’t going to remain within the Union. The Baltic Republics are far out ahead of the others in seeking that independence. They had already held votes and made declarations ahead of the August putsch, which have seen overseas support for that due to their history of being forcibly pulled into the Soviet Union during World War Two. Gorbachev can’t turn it around with regard to them. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania apply to the United Nations to recognise them as independent nation states. Ryzhkov urges Gorbachev to oppose this diplomatically and muddle the waters so that they can be eventually brought back into the union. Gorbachev doesn’t though, believing that it is all too late. When the UN accepts them as members, with the Soviet Union abstaining on the matter, this begins the process where there would be an eventual firm break between Gorbachev and his number two. Disputes between them will intensify in the coming months. That is all behind the scenes though.

Georgia is leaving too. Nothing can stop this. In Tbilisi, they have a popular mandate for independence in the same vein as in the Baltic Republics. Gorbachev arranges for an agreement to keep some ties between Moscow and Tbilisi to make the split less acrimonious that it could have been. With Armenia and Moldova, those two republics have governments who wish to leave but public support isn’t so strong. There is a chance that maybe each can stay and join the new country which Gorbachev is trying to build. Alas, that is not to be. As the months go by, no matter how hard he tries, Gorbachev cannot stop the process of those two nations leaving. Their relationships with Moscow show no sign of being friendly due to the ongoing low-level conflicts taking place within them on ethnic grounds. Gorbachev wants to see the killings and ethnic cleansing cease but it is slowly getting worse threating the stability of the whole union.

In spite of those troubles, Gorbachev is able to declare that the ‘centre would hold’. What he argues is that the core members of the Soviet Union – Russia, the Ukraine, Belarus & Kazakhstan joined by five others – can begin now to form the new nation which is the Union of Sovereign States.

This union is a federation. The nine republics will all have more individual power than they ever did under the Soviet Union, almost independence just without taking that final step. Leaders in the republic’s capitals, including Ryzhkov who takes the presidential role in an acting capacity (pending an election pencilled in for January) for Russia, will have their own empires to run economically and politically. Gorbachev will retain the powers of the overall presidency with foreign affairs and security under his control yet everything else will be up to the republics. The terms of the New Union Treaty gave so much away already, more so now when Gorbachev has modified the terms to keep everyone on-side.

Ahead of the pre-putsch schedule, quicker than it had all been foreseen before the Gang of Eight had so foolishly struck, the Union officially comes into being on December 1st. Gorbachev has kept the centre holding together.

A new country has been forged. It is one which had been put together in a hurry with much papering over the cracks. Detractors claim that Gorbachev has only rearranged the deckchairs on the Titanic. Celebrations in Moscow – ones with politicians, not the ordinary people – take place among an unspoken fear that this is all going to soon come crashing down…

…hard.

[hussar01]

A good read on the economic collapse. www.jstor.org/stable/4401171?seq=1

[stevep]

   James G ,

  Given that the prime conflict Armenia was involved in was with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave what is the status of Azerbaijan?  If that's stayed in the union and Armenia is breaking away then I would expect Moscow to support Azerbaijan which would make it very difficult for NK to break away from it.  If Azerbaijan has gone independent as well it could follow the OTL path. 

  It sounds like the union will have a very rocky period and a lot of instability as well as prompting it overseas.  Anyway have to see what develops.

  Steve

[stevep]

Mar 7, 2020 21:06:07 GMT hussar01 said:

A good read on the economic collapse. www.jstor.org/stable/4401171?seq=1

  Thanks for that.  Didn't realise how bad things had gotten in that period in the former USSR.  It shows the interaction between areas such as machinery, fertiliser etc as well as cash and the weather and the fact that trying to go to a new system, while its likely to boost output and hence living standards in the longer term will cause problems in the shorter term.

  Also I managed to establish an account.  Know there's a hell of a lot of info on jstor but thought you had to be in some sort of educational or other establishment to actually have an account with them.

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 7, 2020 21:06:07 GMT hussar01 said:

A good read on the economic collapse. www.jstor.org/stable/4401171?seq=1

I had a read, thanks.
Things were really shocking, worse than I thought.

Mar 8, 2020 12:46:05 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  Given that the prime conflict Armenia was involved in was with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave what is the status of Azerbaijan?  If that's stayed in the union and Armenia is breaking away then I would expect Moscow to support Azerbaijan which would make it very difficult for NK to break away from it.  If Azerbaijan has gone independent as well it could follow the OTL path. 

  It sounds like the union will have a very rocky period and a lot of instability as well as prompting it overseas.  Anyway have to see what develops.

  Steve

That is exactly one of the situations which I had planned to address in the update below. Armenia left; Azerbaijan stayed. Gorbachev would want to keep on maintaining the pre-POD position of not getting directly involved. But Gorby will no longer be making decisions...
There is going to be other conflicts too. The Union is on a collision course with something bigger than itself.

[James G]

4 – Enemy of the West


Five weeks and two days. That is how long Gorbachev’s leadership of the Union of Sovereign States lasts. In January 1992, he is forced from office. There is no coup d’état against him, at least not anything that resembled what had occurred the previous August. There is a conspiracy though. Ryzhkov has been plotting and organising to oust him. Gorbachev’s chosen number two, the man who he had put into the position of influence that he has, turns against him. He has secured the support of each and every leader of the republics which form the Union – with Ryzhkov himself there heading up Russia – to vote against Gorbachev’s rule. That vote seemingly comes from nowhere… but, of course, it hasn’t. Ryzhkov has been at this for some time and the moment arrives to spring the surprise vote of no confidence on Gorbachev.

The moment comes about when revelations come that the economy of the Union has gone tumbling over the cliff edge.

Blame is apportioned for this upon Gorbachev. It certainly isn’t his fault but he has become the scapegoat. There is financial woe everywhere with the causes of this stretching back decades. The problems have long been apparent throughout Gorbachev’s rule first of the Soviet Union and now this new federated nation which he has forged. He has tried to avert what was coming and believed that the restructuring he made politically, to transform the country as a whole, will bring about the improvement in the economy. He has deluded himself here, thinking that keeping his fingers crossed will make everything better. Band-aids have been put on blood gushing fatal wounds. No change that he has made is every going to do what is needed. The economy of the Union remains a command driven one. It is a war economy in many ways. Whole industries lose money at a prodigious rate and produce junk. Corruption isn’t just rife: it makes the wheels go around. There are economists in the West who have ideas as to how to fix them. Approaches have been made by them: they suggest ‘shock therapy’. Gorbachev has dismissed such ideas. It isn’t as if Ryzhkov or the other leaders of the republics have any better ideas. They want rid of Gorbachev though, blaming him for all of this when they have no answer because it is a convenient excuse which they need.

Gorbachev could have fought them. He gives in though. He will stand down and retire. Ryzhkov takes his place when, by acclamation, he is granted the presidency of the Union. Weeks away from certain to lose the public election to affirm what Gorbachev had given him on an acting basis as president of Russia – opposition on the streets of Moscow and Leningrad to him has been immense –, Ryzhkov has wormed his way into the Kremlin. Another couple of weeks and he would have been nothing: now he leads a superpower.

What will he do to save the Union from the utter mess it is in where the nation is bankrupt? Apply that shock therapy? Seek aid from the West? Take other necessary steps?

No. Ryzhkov will do none of that. Instead he takes the Union to war.


It wasn’t just the economy which brought Gorbachev down. There were armed conflicts raging on the edges of the empire which was the Union. Leaders of the various republics have sided with Ryzhkov because he promises to resolve them to the satisfaction of those there in outlying regions away from Moscow. The conflicts are in the Caucasus and also in the Baltics.

Armenia hasn’t joined the Union whereas Azerbaijan has. There is an ethnic conflict which began back in 1988 within the Karabakh region: part of Azerbaijan physically separated by a portion of Armenia in between. Armenians in Karabakh want to join with their homeland while native Azeri desire to stay with Azerbaijan. Gorbachev’s long-established policy though the years had to try to stop the fighting while favouring neither side officially. The Azeri republic’s leader in Baku, Ayaz Mutalibov, along with Nursultan Nazarbayev who rules over the large republic of Kazakhstan (outside of the Caucasus but with interest there) back Ryzhkov because he says he would solve this to their satisfaction. Union forces are given orders to crush the rebellion in Karabakh. Mutalibov and Nazarbayev have their support for Ryzhkov repaid.

This begins and at once throws away all that work that Gorbachev had done to keep Armenia as a ‘departed friend’ of Moscow: a nation which has left but one which there was hope to keep on friendly terms with the Union pending a possible later return. Wisely, Armenia doesn’t directly intervene. This is a new country with a weak military. In a fight just against Azerbaijan, defeat on the battlefield would have come. There will be nothing but complete devastation from a war with the Union. The leadership in Yerevan abandons those in Karabakh to their fate. Those there in that mountainous region at the bottom of the Caucasus fight on all alone. They inflict some humiliating defeats – only at a tactical level though – on Union forces. Because this is all out of sight, right on the very frontiers of the empire which Ryzhkov now rules over, and the overall victory for the Union is quick, not much notice is taken by the wider world.

That will not be the case in the second fight that the Union gets involved in through the first months of 1992.


Belarus is led by Stanislav Shushkevich. He replaced the past leader of this western republic within the Union following the support shown from his predecessor to the Gang of Eight last year. Shushkevich allied himself with Gorbachev and was at the forefront of helping convince the others to follow the course towards the creation of this new federation. Once it becomes clear that Ryzhkov is on the ascendency, Shushkevich shamelessly knifes Gorbachev in the back. Like those in Almaty and Baku, here in Minsk there has been a request for something in return. Ryzhkov has been told that support for his ousting of Gorbachev would come with a promise to forcibly put an end to what is regarded by Shushkevich as an intolerable situation on Belarus’ – and thus the Union’s – border.

Independence for the Baltic Republics wasn’t opposed by Belarus after Gorbachev had convinced Shushkevich that is was unstoppable. The two men had agreed that Kaliningrad would stay with the Union though. That small region, once East Prussia but taken by Stalin after the end of the war against the Nazis, is physically separate from the Union just as Karabakh in the Caucasus is. It is part of Russia though with Belarus being the closest republic. Shushkevich and others in Minsk have a long-term interest in seeing it as part of Belarus… pretty much a pipe dream in reality. Whether Belarus will ever get it or Russia will keep it will only be the case if Kaliningrad is to remain Union territory. There is a separatist movement in Kaliningrad. It is small but Minsk regards this as one which has the potential to grow. No sort of real nationalist identity drives those in Kaliningrad who are pushing for a withdrawal from the Union. Instead, they stand in opposition to the leadership of Gorbachev (and then Ryzhkov) just the same as those who protest in the streets of Russia’s cities do. Furthermore, a conspiracy is seen with all of this. One of Shushkevich’s Minsk people is the director of the FSK. This is the Union’s federal counter-intelligence service, a successor organisation of the KGB which Gorbachev got rid of last year. The FSK provide so-called evidence to point to assistance being given to those in Kaliningrad from the governments in the trio of independent Baltic nations. It is said that they believe their independence can never last with Kaliningrad part of the Union: it is also suggested the Lithuania has a territorial demand for all of Kaliningrad which Estonia and Latvia are willing to support. Is any of this true? Maybe some of it. Ryzhkov accepts it all though.

The end of January sees the Union send in troops. Kaliningrad is already full of military forces completing the long-drawn process of withdrawing from Eastern Europe but these new troops arrive because the willingness to obey Moscow’s orders from those currently there is questioned. Ryzhkov dispatches paratroopers who fly from Belarus over Lithuanian airspace and across Latvia from Russia too. The violation of the sovereignty of those nations is dismissed with waves of the hand in Moscow and Minsk. Once on the ground in Kaliningrad, those paratroopers there have nothing to do. They are here to restore order… but there is no real disorder. The separatists aren’t like those down in Karabakh nor is there outright rebellion like what was seen through the Baltic Republics in previous years before they managed to break away. Shushkevich has gotten his wish. Kaliningrad is going nowhere. This should be the end of the matter yet it is not. An FSK operation hunting ‘suspected separatists’ sees paratroopers ordered to accompany them along the frontier between Kaliningrad and Lithuania. There is a cross-border shooting incident on February 2nd. Things spiral out of control from there. A war of words erupts between the three sovereign Baltic nations – speaking as one on this – and Ryzhkov in Moscow. The republics of the Union stand with Moscow on this and are fully behind Ryzhkov when there is an aircraft shootdown above Latvia three days later which he calls an act of war. Western intelligence agencies will afterwards have other theories about who was behind that downing of an Antonov-12 transport carrying Union soldiers on the way to Kaliningrad: it seems beyond the capabilities of Latvia even with Soviet-era ground-launched missiles to do that successfully… let alone is there any real motive for such an act.

Ryzhkov invades the Baltic States. February 8th 1992 sees full-scale war begin here.

Union forces pour into these international-recognised independent countries. As has been the case out of sight down in the Caucasus, there are moments of embarrassing failure in many places for the Union armies. They are not up to scratch. Any real opposition to them, which unfortunately isn’t provided here, would show this. The mistakes don’t matter though. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are overrun. The invasion is over with in less than two days. It comes with a great loss of life among those in the way of the rush of tanks and armoured vehicles supported by air power. Civilians are bombed from the air and then machine gunned when they are out in the streets trying to get in the way using non-violent means to stop their countries from being overrun. The tiny armed forces of each country have been defeated but this is the beginning of real resistance here. There will be guerrilla conflicts coming where those opposing Union forces will no longer employ non-violent means to try and drive the ‘Russians’ (as they call them) out of the Baltic.


The reaction elsewhere is one of open hostility. The West reacts with outrage to this sudden, unnecessary and brutal war unleashed upon weak neighbours. Following in Gorbachev’s footsteps, Ryzhkov had been trying to establish an image of the Union abroad that was meant to show that there was a willingness for new, positive relations between Moscow and the West. Now he has taken the opposite course. Should this have been done within the borders of the Union, there would have been criticism, naturally, but the Baltics were not within the Union and are recognised as independent. Moscow claims aggression and that the occupation will last only as long as it takes to restore order. No one believes Ryzhkov on this. Politicians and the public alike through Europe, North America and further afield are not going to ignore this.

It is seen as a naked land grab. By this act, Ryzhkov has firmly established the Union as an enemy of the West.

[stevep]

   James G ,

   Well that is going to be a running sore in relations and if nothing else before the assassination the west will be weary about Moscow and its actions. Plus of course with the continued lack of reform, in which Ryzhkov is probably going backwards there will be continued economic and probably social and political unrest.  Also even the occupation tasks could be a strain given the economic situation.

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 8, 2020 15:42:36 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

   Well that is going to be a running sore in relations and if nothing else before the assassination the west will be weary about Moscow and its actions. Plus of course with the continued lack of reform, in which Ryzhkov is probably going backwards there will be continued economic and probably social and political unrest.  Also even the occupation tasks could be a strain given the economic situation.

  Steve

This is all just the start of the madness which is going to go on.
Some crazy scenes are going to take place to alarm, frighten and then (with that assassination) inflame the West.
The madness starts below.

[James G]

5 – Coup-grad


The term is coined by a columnist in a newspaper in the West. An article in the London-based Daily Telegraph renames Moscow to ‘Coup-grad’ following the multiple changes in leadership here through the first half of 1992. Gorbachev being deposed like he was by Ryzhkov would be included among the other changes in leadership of the Union which occur before the end of June despite that replacement not fulfilling the requirements of a coup. The bringing down of Ryzhkov is a coup d’état though… along with the quick fall of the two who replace him in sequence before there is a final forced change in leadership to bring (a temporary) end the madness.

What happens from March through to June is crazy. This is the Union of Sovereign States though where these events are going to be repeated again at a later date too.


March 15th – the Ides of March – brings with it gunfire and explosions in Moscow. There are soldiers on the streets, men loyal to a general who acts to not just depose President Ryzhkov but also to ‘cleanse’ those streets. Albert Makashov is a political general. He’d run against Ryzhkov and Yeltsin both back in 1991 for the office of the presidency of the Russian SFSR. His efforts saw him finish in a distant fifth. That should have been the end of him though. It was not. Makashov watched with increasing fury as the Soviet Union came apart and was replaced by what he regarded as an abomination with the formation of the Union in its place. Democracy was despised by Makashov, so was people power. There were regular protests in the cities with especially the Russian ones aggravating him. Those out there called for real democracy and Makashov saw them as a threat to his country. He regarded them as ‘Zhids’ (Jews) too, which being an anti-Semite ethno-nationalist, made his blood boil. Ryzhkov did nothing about these protests and they grew in scale. The demands were also increasing too. Convincing himself that only he could save the Union – which he would, of course, then ‘improve’ –, Makashov launches a murderous effort to rid the nation of all that he regards wrong with it.

This is nothing like the August putsch. Ryzhkov, president of the Union for two months, is taken prisoner and then shot dead after a show trial. Union soldiers fire upon one another and then upon civilians too. The Kremlin and government buildings in the capital are fought over. Throughout Moscow there is fighting where the troops which Makashov had under his command gun down all opposition to them. This plays out in front of media teams from the West, many of whom who are arrested and mistreated. Makashov will declare himself president and state that he intends for a return to the old ways of communism and centralised government. He will even bring back the KGB and halt the withdrawals of Soviet forces from Eastern Europe.

Makashov wants to turn the clock back.

The other republics will not accept this, neither will much of Russia too. Makashov as an usurper with no support beyond his own mind. He’s done this assuming that everyone else would go along with him. While the nervous world watches, fearing a wide-ranging civil war within a country so well armed with nuclear weapons, the rest of the Union turn against him with force of their own. Makashov had demanded the support of the whole federation but this is completely rejected. His writ runs no further than Moscow where he has some troops loyal to him deployed. Component republic leaders such as Kravchuk, Nazarbayev and Shushkevich muster around Ruslan Khasbulatov in opposition to Makashov. This politician was once an ally of Yeltsin – one of those who had been in the White House parliament building last summer – and whom the now deceased Ryzhkov had placed as leader of Russia (again without an election taking place; those on the streets on Moscow weren’t going to support him either) is their man.

Within days of Makashov taking power, Union military forces move into Moscow to install Khasbulatov as the nation’s leader. There are troops which came from the republics, joining with those from outside of the capital. Makashov has the Taman Guards; Khasbulatov has the Kantemir Division. These two elite formations of the Union’s ground forces clash. Muscovites are caught in the crossfire when soldiers and tanks engage each other. The world looks on in horror as this counter-coup takes place. There is fierce fighting night and day for almost a week. Makashov takes personal charge of the defences. He does so while everyone is against him and believing that he is holding the trump card of control over the Union’s nuclear forces. That is because he has the nuclear suitcases with their codes. However, that is an illusionary level of control. Codes can be changed and that they have. The Union’s senior military officers are in the Khasbulatov camp and will never allow for the prospect of nuclear weapons to be used within the Rodina!

Moscow is finally retaken… after seven thousand lives have been lost in a furious fight here. March 23rd witnesses the death of Makashov. He dies in battle when taking the soldier’s way out: with an AK-74 in-hand he personally charges a line of Union paratroopers supporting the tanks of the Kantemir Division. If it was a place in history which he wanted, he will get it with that final act.


Khasbulatov is the fourth leader that the Union has in 1992. He is an academic, an economist too. In addition, Khasbulatov is an ethnic Chechen. There has been trouble down in that semi-autonomous region ongoing since last summer though Khasbulatov has been in Moscow throughout. In time, should he have remained leader for longer, that issue might have become more of a big deal. Other pressing matters take prominence in the meantime though.

Ryzhkov had put Khasbulatov where he had because the latter had some interesting ideas when it came to economic reform. There were several of those whom Ryzhkov baulked at but others he was willing to allow the appointed president of the Russian republic to try. When turning the streets of Moscow into a war zone, Makashov failed to make sure that Khasbulatov was detained. Khasbulatov survived to win out in the end and now gets a chance to give all those ideas a try without having the part-reconstructed communist who was Ryzhkov interfere. It isn’t to be the shock therapy capitalism that those Western economists still waiting in the wings (should politics allow them to work with the Union; not likely due to the continued occupation of the Baltics) would like to have seen, but things are quite dramatic. Khasbulatov will begin this within Russia with the goal of seeing this copied soon enough in the other republics.

Starting in April, and continuing into May and then June, the economy of the Union’s largest and most important republic begins a transformation: Khasbulatov is holding the dual positions of president of both that republic and the federation as a whole in violation of the constitution which Gorbachev had drawn up. There can be no immediate overnight change but the process is underway. It brings about immense controversy. Inflation, long ago way past rampant, fast goes utterly out of control. The lines for bread at the stores increase as stocks diminish. This isn’t working. Khasbulatov says that there needs to be time allowed. He speaks with the leaders of the republics about this during face-to-face meetings and on the telephone. Their trust in him which they had given him back in March is asked to be respected. He says that he knew what he is doing. In response to this, they reply that he is hearing them, yes, but he isn’t listening.

Protesters come back onto the streets. They aren’t just in Russian cities like they have always been but begin to show up in cities through the republics now. The situation is pretty bad in the Ukraine and also down in the Central Asian republics south of Kazakhstan. People march against the regime in Moscow for inflicting misery on them where there is a hunger in their bellies. Their pensions are worthless and factories are closing or soon to be shuttered. Throughout the Baltics, a violent guerrilla conflict is emerging which Khasbulatov has no plan to address. Other conflicts rumble on in the Caucasus: new ones within the Russian republic portions of that region. The leaders of the other republics are talking amongst themselves. There is surveillance done of them by the FSK but that organisation is weak – it is never going to replace the KGB – and, after the damage which Makashov’s violent coup has done to it, the ability of the Union’s national intelligence service to truly operate is minimal. Khasbulatov has no time for what little he hears from that organisation too. Moreover, Shushkevich in Minsk still has much influence over the federation’s domestic security service so he can control what Khasbulatov hears. If there had be a warning coming to Khasbulatov, he never will receive it.

June becomes the breaking point. Khasbulatov has been longer in power than any of those leaders of the Union who came before him but three months is not a significant amount of time regardless. He’s only just begun what he wants to do and is certain that the payoffs are soon to come for the country once initial shocks have occurred. His comrades aren’t about to give him any longer. There is a new power rising, someone else has caught their eye. There is a figure with strength and who has the faith of several leaders of the republics to save the Union.

The end of June is to witness a man who will be Russia’s Napoleon come to coup-grad.

[James G]

Anyone want to guess who Russia's Napoleon will be?

[lordroel]

Mar 9, 2020 11:12:39 GMT James G said:

Anyone want to guess who Russia's Napoleon will be?

His name doe not begin with a P does he.

[forcon]

Mar 9, 2020 15:07:27 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 9, 2020 11:12:39 GMT James G said:

Anyone want to guess who Russia's Napoleon will be?

His name doe not begin with a P does he.

I wouldn't think it would be Putin; he's more Siloviki than military. I'm probably wrong but how about Lebed or Zyuganov? My money would be on the former as a military man, but to be honest I'm not confident about it being either.