AHC: Independent Norway Post-Kalmar Union Plus Maybe Finland

[TheRomanSlayer]

In the aftermath of the Swedish War of Independence, Norway tried to follow in Sweden's direction and become an independent nation as well. However, Denmark foiled the plan and as a consequence, Norway entered into a union with the Danish crown. They wouldn't get their independence until 1814, though the Norwegians entered into a union with Sweden after that.

Was it plausible for Norway to become an independent nation right after the collapse of the Kalmar Union? Though it might be extremely difficult, with its sparse population, it almost had a chance of becoming independent. Although with control of Iceland, the islands close to Scotland and Greenland, the Norwegians could have built a slightly larger population base, but weather conditions made it difficult. 

Moreover, would a bigger collapse of the Kalmar Union also lead to an earlier autonomous or independent Finland as well?

[James G]

Will I am not so much up top speed on detailed knowledge of regional history at the time, it seems to me that the fates of many of these countries are going to be effected by outside influence.
The Russian Empire is there and maybe other European nations might want to interfere too.

[TheRomanSlayer]

An independent Norway might be a surprising wildcard in the regional Arctic competition there. Most likely, England and Denmark would be fierce rivals for the control of Norway.

[stevep]

Apr 23, 2020 3:44:40 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

An independent Norway might be a surprising wildcard in the regional Arctic competition there. Most likely, England and Denmark would be fierce rivals for the control of Norway.

  England/Britain might be later on, from 1600 onward say but I would expect the main tension would be between Denmark and Sweden.  Especially since the latter would have a long, albeit mountainous border with Norway.