forcon
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Post by forcon on May 16, 2020 9:57:07 GMT
What if Saddam had been able to orchestrate terror attacks in Western Europe during the build-up to the First Gulf War?
My thinking is that Iraqi operatives might be able to mount a small number of attacks against logistical and command targets supporting the buildup of Coalition troops. Say, one of the major US airbases in Germany, or potentially against US embassy somewhere in Europe, or a port somewhere? Or, worst case scenario, the 1991 Downing Street attack is orchestrated by Iraqi forces? Iraq had the ability to support the takeover of the Iranian embassy in London back in 1981, so attacks within Europe are plausible.
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James G
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Post by James G on May 16, 2020 10:06:48 GMT
It was something feared at the time, I remember reading about security measures across Europe.
Argentina had some ideas in 1982 for striking - they had a plan for hitting Gibraltar - and maybe Iraq could have mounted an action somewhere in Cyprus or, as you suggest, Germany.
However, what would Iraq have struck with? Iranian terrorists given Iraqi support took over that embassy in 1980. Iraq didn't have any form of SF overseas capability. So they would have had to use a terror group. There's all sorts of problems with that.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 16, 2020 10:31:59 GMT
What if Saddam had been able to orchestrate terror attacks in Western Europe during the build-up to the First Gulf War? My thinking is that Iraqi operatives might be able to mount a small number of attacks against logistical and command targets supporting the buildup of Coalition troops. Say, one of the major US airbases in Germany, or potentially against US embassy somewhere in Europe, or a port somewhere? Or, worst case scenario, the 1991 Downing Street attack is orchestrated by Iraqi forces? Iraq had the ability to support the takeover of the Iranian embassy in London back in 1981, so attacks within Europe are plausible. You mean hitting US army facilities in Western Europe. Heck why not have Iraq launch attacks against the Soviet Union (it was in it last days) and NATO, just to spur things up, they have nothing to lose. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 16, 2020 10:57:21 GMT
What if Saddam had been able to orchestrate terror attacks in Western Europe during the build-up to the First Gulf War? My thinking is that Iraqi operatives might be able to mount a small number of attacks against logistical and command targets supporting the buildup of Coalition troops. Say, one of the major US airbases in Germany, or potentially against US embassy somewhere in Europe, or a port somewhere? Or, worst case scenario, the 1991 Downing Street attack is orchestrated by Iraqi forces? Iraq had the ability to support the takeover of the Iranian embassy in London back in 1981, so attacks within Europe are plausible.
Apart from the limitations of Iraq's ability to supply organisation of such operations there might be the question of would this be in Saddam's interest? Its more likely to make people more determined to remove him, or at least drive his forces from Kuwait rather than deter them from supporting the coalition.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 22, 2020 7:03:47 GMT
The would spell an earlier end to Hussein.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on May 24, 2020 2:56:43 GMT
Closest thing I can see would be a missile strike on American positions in Turkey. They did similar to Israel.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 24, 2020 4:53:51 GMT
Closest thing I can see would be a missile strike on American positions in Turkey. They did similar to Israel. Weren't there U.S. military bases also in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain at this period? They'd be in much closer range by the Iraqi SCUD missiles. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on May 24, 2020 5:46:17 GMT
Closest thing I can see would be a missile strike on American positions in Turkey. They did similar to Israel. Weren't there U.S. military bases also in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain at this period? They'd be in much closer range by the Iraqi SCUD missiles. Yeah, those too. But Turkey is the easiest way to really expand the scope of the war in the way the OP seemed to imply. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 24, 2020 6:41:48 GMT
Weren't there U.S. military bases also in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain at this period? They'd be in much closer range by the Iraqi SCUD missiles. Yeah, those too. But Turkey is the easiest way to really expand the scope of the war in the way the OP seemed to imply. How would the Turks react to this? |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on May 24, 2020 7:17:29 GMT
Yeah, those too. But Turkey is the easiest way to really expand the scope of the war in the way the OP seemed to imply. How would the Turks react to this? Turkey will try to get NATO involved, although Article 5 only has provisions for attacks on Europe or North America. Several countries might aid them anyway. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 24, 2020 7:20:22 GMT
How would the Turks react to this? Turkey will try to get NATO involved, although Article 5 only has provisions for attacks on Europe or North America. Several countries might aid them anyway. The Kurds will probably try to stage another uprising if this occurred. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 24, 2020 7:24:40 GMT
Turkey will try to get NATO involved, although Article 5 only has provisions for attacks on Europe or North America. Several countries might aid them anyway. The Kurds will probably try to stage another uprising if this occurred. We will see a much larger Operation Provide Comfort then OTL. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 24, 2020 11:23:46 GMT
The Kurds will probably try to stage another uprising if this occurred. We will see a much larger Operation Provide Comfort then OTL.
Possibly, possibly not. If Turkey was getting active they wouldn't support such a move as it might inspire their own Kurdish population.
I'm not sure that Saddam would hit either Turkey or Saudi. He attacked Israel because it is, publicly at least, hated by the Muslim world so would possibly get some support from assorted Arab groups especially, the PLO supported him there. Also he hoped to get Israel to respond militarily which he thought, possibly correctly, would make it very difficult for assorted Muslim states to support the coalition against him. There was a lot of concern at the time that Israel would respond and this would cause defections from the alliance.
As such the strikes on Israel had a clear political purpose. Attacking either Saudi or Turkey would likely undermine Saddam's aims and cause further problems for him. As I said earlier I don't think it would be wise for him to stage terror strikes in Europe as it would harden feeling in many countries in support for the liberation of Kuwait possibly being extended to his full removal.
Steve
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