Guatemala invades Belize in 1982 while Britain is fighting in the Falklands?

[James G]

Guatemala had/has a long-standing territorial dispute with Belize. Independence from British colonial rule was granted in 1981 with Guatemala's claim to Belize as its own supported by the Sandinistas in Nicaragua and Panama too. Guatemala had a terrible recent history of extreme right-wing regimes (similar to Argentina) and was somewhat supported by the United States.
There were war fears in Belize during 1982 where it was feared that Britain, who had a garrison in Belize to deter an invasion, would be unable to stop an invasion.

What if Guatemala chose April or May to invade and take Belize while the UK was distracted?
Can Britain retake the country and liberate it?

[lordroel]

Jun 14, 2020 18:10:04 GMT James G said:

Guatemala had/has a long-standing territorial dispute with Belize. Independence from British colonial rule was granted in 1981 with Guatemala's claim to Belize as its own supported by the Sandinistas in Nicaragua and Panama too. Guatemala had a terrible recent history of extreme right-wing regimes (similar to Argentina) and was somewhat supported by the United States.
There were war fears in Belize during 1982 where it was feared that Britain, who had a garrison in Belize to deter an invasion, would be unable to stop an invasion.

What if Guatemala chose April or May to invade and take Belize while the UK was distracted?
Can Britain retake the country and liberate it?

what period are we talking about in the Falklands War.

[stevep]

Jun 14, 2020 18:10:04 GMT James G said:

Guatemala had/has a long-standing territorial dispute with Belize. Independence from British colonial rule was granted in 1981 with Guatemala's claim to Belize as its own supported by the Sandinistas in Nicaragua and Panama too. Guatemala had a terrible recent history of extreme right-wing regimes (similar to Argentina) and was somewhat supported by the United States.
There were war fears in Belize during 1982 where it was feared that Britain, who had a garrison in Belize to deter an invasion, would be unable to stop an invasion.

What if Guatemala chose April or May to invade and take Belize while the UK was distracted?
Can Britain retake the country and liberate it?

  I have a feeling we have discussed this before somewhere.  The Guatamalans might try that but Belize is an internationally recognised independent state so I suspect there would be a strong international reaction.  Also if it was allowed to get away with this that sets a dangerous precedent, which a lot of smaller states would be very worried about.  As such I suspect that Britain would get at least basing support from other commonwealth members in the region and very likely fairly directly from the US.  Otherwise the reaction in Britain isn't going to be good.

  Not to mention that given the regime involved its very likely there would be abuse of both defending troops - local and from the British army [including Gurkha's] and the local population which would further anger public opinion. 

  It would test the British military to liberate both victims and it might have to be done sequentially but as Thatcher realised OTL she couldn't let such attacks stand so she would have to respond.  If necessary forces would be withdrawn from NATO commitments.

[spanishspy]

During this time Guatemala was ruled by a dictator friendly to the US. Washington would not allow such a plan to go through without damaging relations with London.

[lordroel]

Jul 2, 2020 1:12:03 GMT spanishspy said:

During this time Guatemala was ruled by a dictator friendly to the US. Washington would not allow such a plan to go through without damaging relations with London.

Well it happen to the Falklands, Washington looked a blind eye towards anybody who is against communism.

[stevep]

Jul 2, 2020 3:50:33 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 2, 2020 1:12:03 GMT spanishspy said:

During this time Guatemala was ruled by a dictator friendly to the US. Washington would not allow such a plan to go through without damaging relations with London.

Well it happen to the Falklands, Washington looked a blind eye towards anybody who is against communism.

  At 1st and Reagan got quite heavily criticised for it, not just in the UK.  However he eventually came on board and from most of what I've heard the US forces were very helpful, especially in terms of shortages of equipment suffered by the British forces.

  At that point Britain was too important an ally for the US to stay neutral if its interests were attacked.  Even more so in the case of Belize as while its a former colonial possession its an internationally recognised state so you get the same issue as with Saddam's attacked on Kuwait.  While oil and the potential carry on threat to the Saudi fields were important allowing a forcible changing of internationally recognised borders is something most states are very wary of as it opens a big can of worms.

[lordroel]

Had to dig true the forum a bit, but it seems we had a thread called 1981 war in Belize? where i posted some information about the Guatemala Army, i post it here also.

Guatemalan Air Force had in 1982 the following:

10 Cessna A-37 Dragonflys (can be armed).

4 Lockheed T-33 Shooting Stars (can be armed).

12 Pilatus PC-7s (armed for combat).

1 DC-6 transport plane.

11 C-47 transport planes.

8 UH-1s helicopters (armed for combat).

8 Bell 206B civilian helicopters (armed for combat).

3 Aérospatiale Alouettes helicopters (armed for combat).

8 Arava IAI-201 twin engine transport aircraft (can be fitted with rocket pods).

Also here are some links of interest:

Guatemala's armed forces 1972

a US defense intelligence report 1985

So I did some searching and the Guatemala special forces who most surely would be in the foreground of a invasion would as far as I can tell made up of:

PARACAIDISTAS: 1 Parachute Battalion made up of the 1st Paratrooper Company, the 2nd Pentagono Paratroop Riflemen Company, 3rd Flecha Paratroop Riflemen Company and the Special Forces Company.

CUERPO DE POLICIA MILITAR AMBULANTE: Mobile Military Police Corps organized to function as a rural police force and to provide support to the National Police.

FAG Tactical Security Group (AGRUPAMIENTO TACTICO DE SEGURIDAD [ATS] DE LA FAG). The Tactical Security Group ( belonging to the Guatemalan Air Force): 3 Infantry Companies.

1st Naval Infantry Company (operated by the army and consist of 5 infantry platoons.

[riggerrob]

If Guaetmala depended upon the USAF to supply spare parts for their Cessna A-37 ground attack airplanes, they might find their fleet grounded by shortages of spare parts. Most of the other aircraft had been in service for so long that spare parts were available from a dozen other sources.

In other news, the US Navy might sail supply ships just beyond the horizon.