2012 Lower US To 1952

[Zyobot]

On January 1st, 2012, the lower portion of the United States--specifically including the South East, South West and West portions as depicted by this map--get sent sixty years back in time to January 1st, 1952. With the downtimer states experiencing their post-WW2 boom and a presidential election between General Eisenhower and Governor Stevenson on the horizon, how will an ISOT of this magnitude affect history forwards? For one, I think that even beyond the cultural clashes and sudden technological advancements brought about by their arrival, California having become a Democratic mecca while the South has transformed into Republican stronghold ought to push politics in much different directions than what we saw IOTL.

To provide a helpful and more immediate visual, however, here's the map I used to define what constitutes the regions that ASB sends back.


Thank you in advance,
Zyobot

[lordroel]

Jun 15, 2020 16:09:06 GMT Zyobot said:

On January 1st, 2012, the lower portion of the United States--specifically including the South East, South West and West portions as depicted by this map--get sent sixty years back in time to January 1st, 1952. With the downtimer states experiencing their post-WW2 boom and a presidential election between General Eisenhower and Governor Stevenson on the horizon, how will an ISOT of this magnitude affect history forwards? For one, I think that even beyond the cultural clashes and sudden technological advancements brought about by their arrival, California having become a Democratic mecca while the South has transformed into Republican stronghold ought to push politics in much different directions than what we saw IOTL.

To provide a helpful and more immediate visual, however, here's the map I used to define what constitutes the regions that ASB sends back.


Thank you in advance,
Zyobot

These are two different countries, you can not say they are the same anymore.

[Zyobot]

Jun 15, 2020 16:20:06 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 15, 2020 16:09:06 GMT Zyobot said:

On January 1st, 2012, the lower portion of the United States--specifically including the South East, South West and West portions as depicted by this map--get sent sixty years back in time to January 1st, 1952. With the downtimer states experiencing their post-WW2 boom and a presidential election between General Eisenhower and Governor Stevenson on the horizon, how will an ISOT of this magnitude affect history forwards? For one, I think that even beyond the cultural clashes and sudden technological advancements brought about by their arrival, California having become a Democratic mecca while the South has transformed into Republican stronghold ought to push politics in much different directions than what we saw IOTL.

To provide a helpful and more immediate visual, however, here's the map I used to define what constitutes the regions that ASB sends back.


Thank you in advance,
Zyobot

These are two different countries, you can not say they are the same anymore.

That's probably what'd happen in practice, even though I think that them being two different versions of the same country from disparate points in time, they'd still maintain diplomatic relations (and potentially also economic and military ties, especially with the lower US's overabundance of technological goodies and ability to help the downtimers out in Korea). Otherwise, I speculate that the best-case scenario is that the uptimers get Hong Kong-like autonomy, but with leaps and bounds more ability to resist Washington's attempts to bludgeon them into submission.

[lordroel]

Jun 15, 2020 16:33:58 GMT Zyobot said:

Jun 15, 2020 16:20:06 GMT lordroel said:

These are two different countries, you can not say they are the same anymore.

That's probably what'd happen in practice, even though I think that them being two different versions of the same country from disparate points in time, they'd still maintain diplomatic relations (and potentially also economic and military ties, especially with the lower US's overabundance of technological goodies and ability to help the downtimers out in Korea). Otherwise, I speculate that the best-case scenario is that the uptimers get Hong Kong-like autonomy, but with leaps and bounds more ability to resist Washington's attempts to bludgeon them into submission.

I think it is more the reverse, there is no way the up timers are going to become part of a country that has fewer people in it among other things.

[Zyobot]

Jun 15, 2020 16:38:57 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 15, 2020 16:33:58 GMT Zyobot said:

That's probably what'd happen in practice, even though I think that them being two different versions of the same country from disparate points in time, they'd still maintain diplomatic relations (and potentially also economic and military ties, especially with the lower US's overabundance of technological goodies and ability to help the downtimers out in Korea). Otherwise, I speculate that the best-case scenario is that the uptimers get Hong Kong-like autonomy, but with leaps and bounds more ability to resist Washington's attempts to bludgeon them into submission.

I think it is more the reverse, there is no way the up timers are going to become part of a country that has fewer people in it among other things.

...Yeah, that’s fair. And it’s also why I termed it the best-case scenario, among other things.

With the South, Southwest and California having left the Union—likely without a shot fired and with mutual, albeit reluctant consent from both halves of the country—I wonder how the 1952 election turns out ITTL? Presumably, both General Eisenhower and Governor Stevenson are still here and running for office, though I’m definitely guessing that how to best approach the uptimers down south will become a front-and-center issue this time around.

As for the 2012 states, I take it that their withdrawal means that, as at least an autonomous region and at most their own sovereign nation, they’d have to draft their own constitution and reorganize their state governments into a unified political system. Exactly how they’d proceed in doing so aside from borrowing heavily from the original American setup (i.e. largely imitating the US Constitution while adding certain modifications to it), I don’t know.

[stevep]

Jun 15, 2020 16:54:35 GMT Zyobot said:

Jun 15, 2020 16:38:57 GMT lordroel said:

I think it is more the reverse, there is no way the up timers are going to become part of a country that has fewer people in it among other things.

...Yeah, that’s fair. And it’s also why I termed it the best-case scenario, among other things.

With the South, Southwest and California having left the Union—likely without a shot fired and with mutual, albeit reluctant consent from both halves of the country—I wonder how the 1952 election turns out ITTL? Presumably, both General Eisenhower and Governor Stevenson are still here and running for office, though I’m definitely guessing that how to best approach the uptimers down south will become a front-and-center issue this time around.

As for the 2012 states, I take it that their withdrawal means that, as at least an autonomous region and at most their own sovereign nation, they’d have to draft their own constitution and reorganize their state governments into a unified political system. Exactly how they’d proceed in doing so aside from borrowing heavily from the original American setup (i.e. largely imitating the US Constitution while adding certain modifications to it), I don’t know.

  Zyobot,lordroel,

  Well if there is an outright split I would expect the new south to basically use the 2012 US constitution their used to but with a few details changed to fit in with the reduced numbers, such as a smaller Senate, which is something the north would have to do as well.  I wonder where they might set their capital.  California is the most influential state but its Democrat whereas most of the rest are Republicans I believe?

  One issue that might happen is since the bulk of the black population is in the south - compared to 1952 US - how does the equal rights and race relations issue go?  Is the fact that there are relatively few blacks in the north and the region where the most brutal use of Jim Crow is no longer about mean it gets delayed - there's no Martin Luther King or Rosa Parks for instance.  Or does the presence of a reformed south and knowledge of what happens possibly bring things forwards?

  Another issue that comes to mind but might be important is access to the Mississippi by the north as a lot of the economy of the latter depends on it.  Come to think of it has the river changed that much in terms of its course during this period, although probably only important in terms of the junction between the two regions/states.

  Also going to have issues in terms of 1592 people outside the south who lived there but are elsewhere when the ISOT occurs, say on business, in the military etc.  Do they prefer going 'home' to a land that is 60 years divorced from them or to the north which is more familiar socially.

  Just remembered there is also a little event in Korea at this time.  How does the potential military might of the new south affect this?  Could see Chinese forces hammered even more than OTL and possibly an end to the stalemate.  Or even given the relative backwardness of the Soviets and especially their nuclear forces do both old and new go for broke in possibly seeking to remove the Soviets from eastern Europe?  [Its the year before the uprising in E Germany that is bloodily put down and you have unrest in Hungary in 56 OTL].  On the other hand I don't think there are any modern ICBMs in the south so it could depend on what SSBMs come along with them as IIRC there's a base in Georgia for them along with what longer range air power is available.

  Going to be a lot of questions with ownership of resources, patent rights, licences etc as always.

  Steve

[Zyobot]

Jun 16, 2020 9:51:52 GMT stevep said:

Jun 15, 2020 16:54:35 GMT Zyobot said:

...Yeah, that’s fair. And it’s also why I termed it the best-case scenario, among other things.

With the South, Southwest and California having left the Union—likely without a shot fired and with mutual, albeit reluctant consent from both halves of the country—I wonder how the 1952 election turns out ITTL? Presumably, both General Eisenhower and Governor Stevenson are still here and running for office, though I’m definitely guessing that how to best approach the uptimers down south will become a front-and-center issue this time around.

As for the 2012 states, I take it that their withdrawal means that, as at least an autonomous region and at most their own sovereign nation, they’d have to draft their own constitution and reorganize their state governments into a unified political system. Exactly how they’d proceed in doing so aside from borrowing heavily from the original American setup (i.e. largely imitating the US Constitution while adding certain modifications to it), I don’t know.

  Zyobot ,lordroel ,

  Well if there is an outright split I would expect the new south to basically use the 2012 US constitution their used to but with a few details changed to fit in with the reduced numbers, such as a smaller Senate, which is something the north would have to do as well.  I wonder where they might set their capital.  California is the most influential state but its Democrat whereas most of the rest are Republicans I believe?

  One issue that might happen is since the bulk of the black population is in the south - compared to 1952 US - how does the equal rights and race relations issue go?  Is the fact that there are relatively few blacks in the north and the region where the most brutal use of Jim Crow is no longer about mean it gets delayed - there's no Martin Luther King or Rosa Parks for instance.  Or does the presence of a reformed south and knowledge of what happens possibly bring things forwards?

  Another issue that comes to mind but might be important is access to the Mississippi by the north as a lot of the economy of the latter depends on it.  Come to think of it has the river changed that much in terms of its course during this period, although probably only important in terms of the junction between the two regions/states.

  Also going to have issues in terms of 1592 people outside the south who lived there but are elsewhere when the ISOT occurs, say on business, in the military etc.  Do they prefer going 'home' to a land that is 60 years divorced from them or to the north which is more familiar socially.

  Just remembered there is also a little event in Korea at this time.  How does the potential military might of the new south affect this?  Could see Chinese forces hammered even more than OTL and possibly an end to the stalemate.  Or even given the relative backwardness of the Soviets and especially their nuclear forces do both old and new go for broke in possibly seeking to remove the Soviets from eastern Europe?  [Its the year before the uprising in E Germany that is bloodily put down and you have unrest in Hungary in 56 OTL].  On the other hand I don't think there are any modern ICBMs in the south so it could depend on what SSBMs come along with them as IIRC there's a base in Georgia for them along with what longer range air power is available.

  Going to be a lot of questions with ownership of resources, patent rights, licences etc as always.

  Steve

Your predictions concerning the new constitution the newfound 'Lower States of America' would probably draft makes sense, though as one nitpick, states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico leaned Democratic since the 2008 election (in which they all went for Obama, who doesn't come along for the ride, BTW).

In regards to race relations, my best guess is that even with the Jim Crow South gone, the uptimers will certainly pressure the 'Upper States' into passing civil rights legislation, likely a few years earlier than IOTL. Or else they won't receive the sweet, sweet 2012 goodies or technical help that 2012 has to offer. Plus, whatever spies are sent southwards would probably stick out like sore thumbs, due to the fact that their sensibilities and academic knowledge is sixty years too dated for them to successfully impersonate uptimers, by and large.

I don't know as much about the Mississippi River specifically, but judging by the economic importance that you attribute to it, I assume it'll just become another bargaining chip in the Lower States' favor when it comes to 'conditions' they'll want the Upper States to meet before they receive uptimer aid. And given the sheer economic, military and technological disparities between 1952 and 2012, I think that downtimer attempts to bring them "in line" will backfire in the most spectacular way. Deploying a drone that strikes perilously close to the White House would teach them a lesson they won't soon forget if it ever comes to that, just as one example. Or dispatching largely empty locations with pinpoint precision that uptimer armed forces would have full knowledge of as a symbolic way of basically telling them "don't screw with us and we'll play nice".

The exact approach the Lower States would take to accommodating people who once lived in its its downtimer counterpart also eludes me. Other than, perhaps, screening downtimers seeking to return to make sure that they don't stir up trouble. And probably handing them checks to get those who lost their homes, businesses and other assets in the ISOT back on their feet (even though I can't come up with estimates for how much these relief programs would probably cost, never mind the wave of other legislation that the Lower States would pass to weather this unprecedented situation).

Concerning foreign policy, I was also thinking about Korea and how the Lower States could easily turn the tide of the conflict in NATO's favor (which I'm guessing they'd officially join soon thereafter, but probably after whupping the communists' asses in a blowout victory like never seen before). Though I know less about ICBMs, the Lower States nonetheless seem to have missile sites that may be of use here (though I don't know which munitions they store off the top of my head). Either way, though, I think that some combination of advanced conventional forces and terrifying new wonder-weapons like cruise missiles, drones and stealth bombers--among others--is bound to keep the communist bloc on its toes. Unless, of course, it overreacts and forces the Lower States to take their gloves off for real. Hopefully, the fighting doesn't escalate to quite that level ITTL.

Lastly, I'm guessing that even with the omnifarious disputes that come with an ISOT of this magnitude, intellectual property--and ownership of more tangible holdings, certainly--will prove a real headache for all sides. A likely possibility is that the Lower States exempt themselves from downtimer patents, due to how many of them have expired from the uptimers' perspective and how tech, manufacturing and R&D firms sent along for the ride won't appreciate more hassle than they already have to deal with. I do, however, think that the newly formed Lower States' government could pay off downtimers who've just lost control over their patents as compensation, which would probably amount to a temporary solution while they straighten themselves out for the time being. Again, I don't have exact estimates as to how much this would cost, though hopefully it--along with the cornucopia of other expenses that uptimers would need to pay off somehow--doesn't bankrupt the Lower States when their collective economy has already been forced onto its knees by the ISOT.

As for copyright, however, the fact that the digital technologies that the uptimers have brought with them allow for the quick, easy, even pirated distribution of someone's content across the internet is hard enough for uptimer governments to clamp down on as is, never mind how downtimer governments who only have a theoretical--and at best, experimental--concept of 24/7 online communication like we do would flounder once introduced to the computers, smart devices and World Wide Web that they're used to access. Those implications in particular probably deserve their own paragraph or post, and it's all the more reason why 1952's vanguards of traditional media would probably rail against due to how online distribution undercuts their very business model. I'm unsure what'd be done about trademarks, though--as usual--I feel like both uptimers and downtimers would have to make certain compromises that neither necessarily wants to, especially as it relates to putting aside their values for political expediency's sake.

[stevep]

Jun 16, 2020 17:47:39 GMT Zyobot said:

Jun 16, 2020 9:51:52 GMT stevep said:

  Zyobot ,lordroel ,

  Well if there is an outright split I would expect the new south to basically use the 2012 US constitution their used to but with a few details changed to fit in with the reduced numbers, such as a smaller Senate, which is something the north would have to do as well.  I wonder where they might set their capital.  California is the most influential state but its Democrat whereas most of the rest are Republicans I believe?

  One issue that might happen is since the bulk of the black population is in the south - compared to 1952 US - how does the equal rights and race relations issue go?  Is the fact that there are relatively few blacks in the north and the region where the most brutal use of Jim Crow is no longer about mean it gets delayed - there's no Martin Luther King or Rosa Parks for instance.  Or does the presence of a reformed south and knowledge of what happens possibly bring things forwards?

  Another issue that comes to mind but might be important is access to the Mississippi by the north as a lot of the economy of the latter depends on it.  Come to think of it has the river changed that much in terms of its course during this period, although probably only important in terms of the junction between the two regions/states.

  Also going to have issues in terms of 1592 people outside the south who lived there but are elsewhere when the ISOT occurs, say on business, in the military etc.  Do they prefer going 'home' to a land that is 60 years divorced from them or to the north which is more familiar socially.

  Just remembered there is also a little event in Korea at this time.  How does the potential military might of the new south affect this?  Could see Chinese forces hammered even more than OTL and possibly an end to the stalemate.  Or even given the relative backwardness of the Soviets and especially their nuclear forces do both old and new go for broke in possibly seeking to remove the Soviets from eastern Europe?  [Its the year before the uprising in E Germany that is bloodily put down and you have unrest in Hungary in 56 OTL].  On the other hand I don't think there are any modern ICBMs in the south so it could depend on what SSBMs come along with them as IIRC there's a base in Georgia for them along with what longer range air power is available.

  Going to be a lot of questions with ownership of resources, patent rights, licences etc as always.

  Steve

Your predictions concerning the new constitution the newfound 'Lower States of America' would probably draft makes sense, though as one nitpick, states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico leaned Democratic since the 2008 election (in which they all went for Obama, who doesn't come along for the ride, BTW).

In regards to race relations, my best guess is that even with the Jim Crow South gone, the uptimers will certainly pressure the 'Upper States' into passing civil rights legislation, likely a few years earlier than IOTL. Or else they won't receive the sweet, sweet 2012 goodies or technical help that 2012 has to offer. Plus, whatever spies are sent southwards would probably stick out like sore thumbs, due to the fact that their sensibilities and academic knowledge is sixty years too dated for them to successfully impersonate uptimers, by and large.

I don't know as much about the Mississippi River specifically, but judging by the economic importance that you attribute to it, I assume it'll just become another bargaining chip in the Lower States' favor when it comes to 'conditions' they'll want the Upper States to meet before they receive uptimer aid. And given the sheer economic, military and technological disparities between 1952 and 2012, I think that downtimer attempts to bring them "in line" will backfire in the most spectacular way. Deploying a drone that strikes perilously close to the White House would teach them a lesson they won't soon forget if it ever comes to that, just as one example. Or dispatching largely empty locations with pinpoint precision that uptimer armed forces would have full knowledge of as a symbolic way of basically telling them "don't screw with us and we'll play nice".

The exact approach the Lower States would take to accommodating people who once lived in its its downtimer counterpart also eludes me. Other than, perhaps, screening downtimers seeking to return to make sure that they don't stir up trouble. And probably handing them checks to get those who lost their homes, businesses and other assets in the ISOT back on their feet (even though I can't come up with estimates for how much these relief programs would probably cost, never mind the wave of other legislation that the Lower States would pass to weather this unprecedented situation).

Concerning foreign policy, I was also thinking about Korea and how the Lower States could easily turn the tide of the conflict in NATO's favor (which I'm guessing they'd officially join soon thereafter, but probably after whupping the communists' asses in a blowout victory like never seen before). Though I know less about ICBMs, the Lower States nonetheless seem to have missile sites that may be of use here (though I don't know which munitions they store off the top of my head). Either way, though, I think that some combination of advanced conventional forces and terrifying new wonder-weapons like cruise missiles, drones and stealth bombers--among others--is bound to keep the communist bloc on its toes. Unless, of course, it overreacts and forces the Lower States to take their gloves off for real. Hopefully, the fighting doesn't escalate to quite that level ITTL.

Lastly, I'm guessing that even with the omnifarious disputes that come with an ISOT of this magnitude, intellectual property--and ownership of more tangible holdings, certainly--will prove a real headache for all sides. A likely possibility is that the Lower States exempt themselves from downtimer patents, due to how many of them have expired from the uptimers' perspective and how tech, manufacturing and R&D firms sent along for the ride won't appreciate more hassle than they already have to deal with. I do, however, think that the newly formed Lower States' government could pay off downtimers who've just lost control over their patents as compensation, which would probably amount to a temporary solution while they straighten themselves out for the time being. Again, I don't have exact estimates as to how much this would cost, though hopefully it--along with the cornucopia of other expenses that uptimers would need to pay off somehow--doesn't bankrupt the Lower States when their collective economy has already been forced onto its knees by the ISOT.

As for copyright, however, the fact that the digital technologies that the uptimers have brought with them allow for the quick, easy, even pirated distribution of someone's content across the internet is hard enough for uptimer governments to clamp down on as is, never mind how downtimer governments who only have a theoretical--and at best, experimental--concept of 24/7 online communication like we do would flounder once introduced to the computers, smart devices and World Wide Web that they're used to access. Those implications in particular probably deserve their own paragraph or post, and it's all the more reason why 1952's vanguards of traditional media would probably rail against due to how online distribution undercuts their very business model. I'm unsure what'd be done about trademarks, though--as usual--I feel like both uptimers and downtimers would have to make certain compromises that neither necessarily wants to, especially as it relates to putting aside their values for political expediency's sake.

  Zyobot,

  In general agreement but that link seems to refer to Nike missiles which are no longer active.  There are probably newer AA missiles but their probably non-nuclear.  In terms of boomers the wiki enyry for the Ohio class SSBMs states

The first eight submarines had their home ports at Bangor, Washington, to replace the submarines carrying Polaris A3 missiles that were then being decommissioned. The remaining 10 submarines originally had their home ports at Kings Bay, Georgia, replacing the Poseidon and Trident Backfit submarines of the Atlantic Fleet. 

 

  See Ohio-class_submarine for more details.  A little puzzled at the mention of originally in the section above but the table lower down in the link says that subs are still based here.  Of course a number would be out on patrol and probably won't be brought along but what they do have would be light years ahead of anything else.  Checking the wiki link on Kings_Bay_Georgia, their still there.

  As you mention the south will have serious economic problems of its own as its lost its connections not just its northern US but the rest of the world and a lot of its activity depends on supplies now lost, especially in E Asia, which are going to have to be replaced, which isn't going to be easy.  It could actually have relatively limited ability to supply the north, let alone anywhere else in the world with high tech stuff as it could struggle to supply itself for a while.  Just a thought as well that presumably assorted satellites haven't come along as well which would mean no GPS and serious problems in communications.  The 1952 North could be surprised and shocked that the south [and the wider USA] of 2012 is so dependent on foreign sources for a lot of important technology.

  If Obama doesn't come along then, unless Biden has there is no clear leader and without Washington probably only those Congressmen and Senators who happened to be in the south so going to have to be a lot of confusion and probably a round of urgent elections to establish some government structure. 

  Steve

[Zyobot]

Jun 17, 2020 13:28:04 GMT stevep said:

Jun 16, 2020 17:47:39 GMT Zyobot said:

Your predictions concerning the new constitution the newfound 'Lower States of America' would probably draft makes sense, though as one nitpick, states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico leaned Democratic since the 2008 election (in which they all went for Obama, who doesn't come along for the ride, BTW).

In regards to race relations, my best guess is that even with the Jim Crow South gone, the uptimers will certainly pressure the 'Upper States' into passing civil rights legislation, likely a few years earlier than IOTL. Or else they won't receive the sweet, sweet 2012 goodies or technical help that 2012 has to offer. Plus, whatever spies are sent southwards would probably stick out like sore thumbs, due to the fact that their sensibilities and academic knowledge is sixty years too dated for them to successfully impersonate uptimers, by and large.

I don't know as much about the Mississippi River specifically, but judging by the economic importance that you attribute to it, I assume it'll just become another bargaining chip in the Lower States' favor when it comes to 'conditions' they'll want the Upper States to meet before they receive uptimer aid. And given the sheer economic, military and technological disparities between 1952 and 2012, I think that downtimer attempts to bring them "in line" will backfire in the most spectacular way. Deploying a drone that strikes perilously close to the White House would teach them a lesson they won't soon forget if it ever comes to that, just as one example. Or dispatching largely empty locations with pinpoint precision that uptimer armed forces would have full knowledge of as a symbolic way of basically telling them "don't screw with us and we'll play nice".

The exact approach the Lower States would take to accommodating people who once lived in its its downtimer counterpart also eludes me. Other than, perhaps, screening downtimers seeking to return to make sure that they don't stir up trouble. And probably handing them checks to get those who lost their homes, businesses and other assets in the ISOT back on their feet (even though I can't come up with estimates for how much these relief programs would probably cost, never mind the wave of other legislation that the Lower States would pass to weather this unprecedented situation).

Concerning foreign policy, I was also thinking about Korea and how the Lower States could easily turn the tide of the conflict in NATO's favor (which I'm guessing they'd officially join soon thereafter, but probably after whupping the communists' asses in a blowout victory like never seen before). Though I know less about ICBMs, the Lower States nonetheless seem to have missile sites that may be of use here (though I don't know which munitions they store off the top of my head). Either way, though, I think that some combination of advanced conventional forces and terrifying new wonder-weapons like cruise missiles, drones and stealth bombers--among others--is bound to keep the communist bloc on its toes. Unless, of course, it overreacts and forces the Lower States to take their gloves off for real. Hopefully, the fighting doesn't escalate to quite that level ITTL.

Lastly, I'm guessing that even with the omnifarious disputes that come with an ISOT of this magnitude, intellectual property--and ownership of more tangible holdings, certainly--will prove a real headache for all sides. A likely possibility is that the Lower States exempt themselves from downtimer patents, due to how many of them have expired from the uptimers' perspective and how tech, manufacturing and R&D firms sent along for the ride won't appreciate more hassle than they already have to deal with. I do, however, think that the newly formed Lower States' government could pay off downtimers who've just lost control over their patents as compensation, which would probably amount to a temporary solution while they straighten themselves out for the time being. Again, I don't have exact estimates as to how much this would cost, though hopefully it--along with the cornucopia of other expenses that uptimers would need to pay off somehow--doesn't bankrupt the Lower States when their collective economy has already been forced onto its knees by the ISOT.

As for copyright, however, the fact that the digital technologies that the uptimers have brought with them allow for the quick, easy, even pirated distribution of someone's content across the internet is hard enough for uptimer governments to clamp down on as is, never mind how downtimer governments who only have a theoretical--and at best, experimental--concept of 24/7 online communication like we do would flounder once introduced to the computers, smart devices and World Wide Web that they're used to access. Those implications in particular probably deserve their own paragraph or post, and it's all the more reason why 1952's vanguards of traditional media would probably rail against due to how online distribution undercuts their very business model. I'm unsure what'd be done about trademarks, though--as usual--I feel like both uptimers and downtimers would have to make certain compromises that neither necessarily wants to, especially as it relates to putting aside their values for political expediency's sake.

  Zyobot ,

  In general agreement but that link seems to refer to Nike missiles which are no longer active.  There are probably newer AA missiles but their probably non-nuclear.  In terms of boomers the wiki enyry for the Ohio class SSBMs states

The first eight submarines had their home ports at Bangor, Washington, to replace the submarines carrying Polaris A3 missiles that were then being decommissioned. The remaining 10 submarines originally had their home ports at Kings Bay, Georgia, replacing the Poseidon and Trident Backfit submarines of the Atlantic Fleet. 

 

  See Ohio-class_submarine for more details.  A little puzzled at the mention of originally in the section above but the table lower down in the link says that subs are still based here.  Of course a number would be out on patrol and probably won't be brought along but what they do have would be light years ahead of anything else.  Checking the wiki link on Kings_Bay_Georgia, their still there.

  As you mention the south will have serious economic problems of its own as its lost its connections not just its northern US but the rest of the world and a lot of its activity depends on supplies now lost, especially in E Asia, which are going to have to be replaced, which isn't going to be easy.  It could actually have relatively limited ability to supply the north, let alone anywhere else in the world with high tech stuff as it could struggle to supply itself for a while.  Just a thought as well that presumably assorted satellites haven't come along as well which would mean no GPS and serious problems in communications.  The 1952 North could be surprised and shocked that the south [and the wider USA] of 2012 is so dependent on foreign sources for a lot of important technology.

  If Obama doesn't come along then, unless Biden has there is no clear leader and without Washington probably only those Congressmen and Senators who happened to be in the south so going to have to be a lot of confusion and probably a round of urgent elections to establish some government structure. 

  Steve

Once more, you brought up some good points. Similar to what I've said before, I know less about munitions and how they evolved in the years since 1952, though maybe this list of active U.S. Military missiles--which seems to employ both newer and decades-old designs at this point--provides better insight than my previous link probably did. I think that to provide them with a substantial maritime force instead of a handful of docked ships and mariners, maybe those naval assets within, say, the Gulf of Mexico and off the Pacific Coast should come along as well. Unfortunately, I can't find specific references that detail which task forces were where as of early 2012. So I can only guess as to which ships make sense to send back at the moment. And I'd very much prefer not to force the uptimers to build a new navy from scratch, even though as presumably their own country, they'd rebrand and reorganize by absorbing ships, sailors and other assets brought along for the ride into their ranks. The same would go for whatever other 2012 military forces were sent back, I'd think.

I should probably also clarify slightly so that assorted satellites also get sent back, just so that the uptimers retain reliable communications--especially with how digital interaction was becoming increasingly vital to how people live and work during the 2010s (and still is, given the trajectory of current events thus far).

Aside from it probably having less factories and industrial machinery on hand than the uptimer Midwest (though various automobile plants and other such productive hubs have sprung up over the last few decades), I think that the South's massive economic growth within the last few decades would greatly surprise most downtimers, with much the same applying to its political turnaround from a Democratic stronghold into reliable Republican country by 2012. Of course, for all of its gains in the financial sector, high-tech research and corporations headquartered in its region, severed trade links will probably cause a massive recession in the short term, similar to what you've said.

Given the perils of globalization as it applies to this scenario, which would also surprise downtimers who are accustomed to a dominant United States and a devastated Eurasia at this point in time, I'm thinking that--in addition to usual in-crisis practices of rationing and more sparing use of resources on the part of ordinary people (maybe also a revival of victory gardens in which households grow much of their own food or something like that)--Lower States would also pour funds into their manufacturing sector, probably also granting tax incentives to manufacturers that will probably have to wait for the future, due to how cash-strapped uptimer governments would be for the time being. And given how mechanical parts and components from 1952 are likely incompatible with 2012 machinery by and large, that'll wreck its own share of havoc on downtimer markets as well.

In the longer term, however, I suspect that once the downtimers find out about the decline of the once-booming Rust Belt and how jobs and plants going overseas to China of all places was an ongoing problem in the future that the uptimers came from, the US government will surely take steps to prevent international outsourcing and promote products 'Made in America, by Americans'. Perhaps the advice of W. Edward Deming will make a massive comeback ITTL, with official regulatory policy reflecting his ideas is some way or another. As far as further specifics go, I think that given its New Dealer leanings, Washington is more likely to erect trade barriers and more heavily bridle global markets in order to keep its heartland's beat going.

Similarly, I think they'll take a harder line against immigration once they find out about all of the undocumented immigrants living in the Lower States--and how some activists are pleading for amnesty, of all things (a likely summation of their words, not necessarily mine). Off the top of my head, I'm more than willing to bet that Joe McCarthy and other demagogues will blast the uptimers for how "soft" they are on enforcing existing law, likely via a mix of pointing to how undocumented works provide cheap labor and embracing more xenophobic talking points also employed by the particularly nativist elements of today's American right. Granted, they can rely on the Lower States to absorb flow of undocumented immigrants from the southern border on their behalf for the most part, but still. And that's without considering their likely reactions to the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965.

That encapsulates my second major wave of thoughts, anyway. Hopefully, it addressed your points well enough without waffling too much (which I'm naturally prone to, as you know).

[stevep]

Jun 17, 2020 19:07:03 GMT Zyobot said:

Jun 17, 2020 13:28:04 GMT stevep said:

  Zyobot ,

  In general agreement but that link seems to refer to Nike missiles which are no longer active.  There are probably newer AA missiles but their probably non-nuclear.  In terms of boomers the wiki enyry for the Ohio class SSBMs states

 

  See Ohio-class_submarine for more details.  A little puzzled at the mention of originally in the section above but the table lower down in the link says that subs are still based here.  Of course a number would be out on patrol and probably won't be brought along but what they do have would be light years ahead of anything else.  Checking the wiki link on Kings_Bay_Georgia, their still there.

  As you mention the south will have serious economic problems of its own as its lost its connections not just its northern US but the rest of the world and a lot of its activity depends on supplies now lost, especially in E Asia, which are going to have to be replaced, which isn't going to be easy.  It could actually have relatively limited ability to supply the north, let alone anywhere else in the world with high tech stuff as it could struggle to supply itself for a while.  Just a thought as well that presumably assorted satellites haven't come along as well which would mean no GPS and serious problems in communications.  The 1952 North could be surprised and shocked that the south [and the wider USA] of 2012 is so dependent on foreign sources for a lot of important technology.

  If Obama doesn't come along then, unless Biden has there is no clear leader and without Washington probably only those Congressmen and Senators who happened to be in the south so going to have to be a lot of confusion and probably a round of urgent elections to establish some government structure. 

  Steve

Once more, you brought up some good points. Similar to what I've said before, I know less about munitions and how they evolved in the years since 1952, though maybe this list of active U.S. Military missiles--which seems to employ both newer and decades-old designs at this point--provides better insight than my previous link probably did. I think that to provide them with a substantial maritime force instead of a handful of docked ships and mariners, maybe those naval assets within, say, the Gulf of Mexico and off the Pacific Coast should come along as well. Unfortunately, I can't find specific references that detail which task forces were where as of early 2012. So I can only guess as to which ships make sense to send back at the moment. And I'd very much prefer not to force the uptimers to build a new navy from scratch, even though as presumably their own country, they'd rebrand and reorganize by absorbing ships, sailors and other assets brought along for the ride into their ranks. The same would go for whatever other 2012 military forces were sent back, I'd think.

I should probably also clarify slightly so that assorted satellites also get sent back, just so that the uptimers retain reliable communications--especially with how digital interaction was becoming increasingly vital to how people live and work during the 2010s (and still is, given the trajectory of current events thus far).

Aside from it probably having less factories and industrial machinery on hand than the uptimer Midwest (though various automobile plants and other such productive hubs have sprung up over the last few decades), I think that the South's massive economic growth within the last few decades would greatly surprise most downtimers, with much the same applying to its political turnaround from a Democratic stronghold into reliable Republican country by 2012. Of course, for all of its gains in the financial sector, high-tech research and corporations headquartered in its region, severed trade links will probably cause a massive recession in the short term, similar to what you've said.

Given the perils of globalization as it applies to this scenario, which would also surprise downtimers who are accustomed to a dominant United States and a devastated Eurasia at this point in time, I'm thinking that--in addition to usual in-crisis practices of rationing and more sparing use of resources on the part of ordinary people (maybe also a revival of victory gardens in which households grow much of their own food or something like that)--Lower States would also pour funds into their manufacturing sector, probably also granting tax incentives to manufacturers that will probably have to wait for the future, due to how cash-strapped uptimer governments would be for the time being. And given how mechanical parts and components from 1952 are likely incompatible with 2012 machinery by and large, that'll wreck its own share of havoc on downtimer markets as well.

In the longer term, however, I suspect that once the downtimers find out about the decline of the once-booming Rust Belt and how jobs and plants going overseas to China of all places was an ongoing problem in the future that the uptimers came from, the US government will surely take steps to prevent international outsourcing and promote products 'Made in America, by Americans'. Perhaps the advice of W. Edward Deming will make a massive comeback ITTL, with official regulatory policy reflecting his ideas is some way or another. As far as further specifics go, I think that given its New Dealer leanings, Washington is more likely to erect trade barriers and more heavily bridle global markets in order to keep its heartland's beat going.

Similarly, I think they'll take a harder line against immigration once they find out about all of the undocumented immigrants living in the Lower States--and how some activists are pleading for amnesty, of all things (a likely summation of their words, not necessarily mine). Off the top of my head, I'm more than willing to bet that Joe McCarthy and other demagogues will blast the uptimers for how "soft" they are on enforcing existing law, likely via a mix of pointing to how undocumented works provide cheap labor and embracing more xenophobic talking points also employed by the particularly nativist elements of today's American right. Granted, they can rely on the Lower States to absorb flow of undocumented immigrants from the southern border on their behalf for the most part, but still. And that's without considering their likely reactions to the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965.

That encapsulates my second major wave of thoughts, anyway. Hopefully, it addressed your points well enough without waffling too much (which I'm naturally prone to, as you know).

  Zyobot,

  Well if the south gets a fair amount of military forces outside their immediate waters that would help with the immediate issues.  Ditto and probably even more if enough satellites are brought alone so their communications are largely unaffected.  Would this also include those used for GPS and for intel gathering as that would make a big impact on both the Korean conflict and the wider cold war.

  The US could revert back to protectionism which is likely to cause some serious disruption of world trade as their only recently pressurised most of their allies to open up as well so its probable that a lot of other powers will follow suit which could lead to a big drop in world trade,  Could be good for Britain as it would allow it to resume the controls set up, such as on capital flow that were helping the fragile British economy recover after WWII and the US forced us to drop.  Also a shorter Korean war could help although much of the economic damage has been done.  The Marshall Plan transfers are largely completed by this time so Europe is starting to recover but this could be imperiled now if the US reimposes large trade barriers. 

  McCarthy may be less successful as there will be plenty of evidence of his lying and how much damage it caused.  Although having a look at the wiki page for McCarthyism he was being supported by J Edgar Hoover so it could mean a clash with him as well.  Ideally both might be removed from power fairly quickly but there could be a strong right wing backlash as a result of the news the south brings of 2012.  If so that's definitely going to deeper the divide between the two regions.

  In terms of migrant labour some interests, especially the unions, who have a fair amount of power at this point and won't want to be undercut.  However a fair amount of big business leaders would probably welcome cheap labour.  Although depending on the relative living standards and rules on working conditions and also how bad the short term economic impact of the shift is on the south you could see migration either way.  Possibly the existing south migrants could find their better off staying where they are and could even be undercut by northerners coming south.  [Possibly especially blacks who have moved north for better paid jobs and to escape Jim Crow.  A lot of them if the southern economy recovers could prefer to move south again as its less racist now and might offer better options.]

  Just occurred to me your probably killed off the Apollo Project.  Especially if the two groups form separate nations I can't really see either group having the desire to send men to the moon for quite a while.  The south has virtually all the information gained from the project and can make it available to others, as well as a lot of other info about the universe beyond Earth.  However the project would be old news to them and given it wasn't developed any further as humanity stayed in low orbit they may see it as rather pointless, at least for a couple of decades.  The north might see it as a way of restoring pride in the 1952 US but the costs could also deter them and also unless the south provides a launch base the project is going to be more difficult as they would have to launch from a higher latitude.  [Unless they used say a Pacific island base?]

  The south might want to push for controls on assorted environmental issues, possibly mostly air pollution and nuclear testing, at least in the atmosphere but I can't see any success in the latter for a while due to the fact the Soviets especially will see that as an attempt to restrict their own development.  Global warming is likely to be an issue as well but the level of denial is going to be far greater in the 1952 world, especially with so much of society dependent on coal especially.  However with 2012 technology thinks such as solar power could get an earlier start.  [Just thought would 1952 cars meet 2012 regulations, in terms of pollution, safety etc.  Suspect not which could be another issue between the south and the 1052 world, especially the north.]  Then of course there is information about cancer from smoking.  Going to be a 'fun' time in many ways.

[Zyobot]

Jun 18, 2020 10:39:09 GMT stevep said:

Jun 17, 2020 19:07:03 GMT Zyobot said:

Once more, you brought up some good points. Similar to what I've said before, I know less about munitions and how they evolved in the years since 1952, though maybe this list of active U.S. Military missiles--which seems to employ both newer and decades-old designs at this point--provides better insight than my previous link probably did. I think that to provide them with a substantial maritime force instead of a handful of docked ships and mariners, maybe those naval assets within, say, the Gulf of Mexico and off the Pacific Coast should come along as well. Unfortunately, I can't find specific references that detail which task forces were where as of early 2012. So I can only guess as to which ships make sense to send back at the moment. And I'd very much prefer not to force the uptimers to build a new navy from scratch, even though as presumably their own country, they'd rebrand and reorganize by absorbing ships, sailors and other assets brought along for the ride into their ranks. The same would go for whatever other 2012 military forces were sent back, I'd think.

I should probably also clarify slightly so that assorted satellites also get sent back, just so that the uptimers retain reliable communications--especially with how digital interaction was becoming increasingly vital to how people live and work during the 2010s (and still is, given the trajectory of current events thus far).

Aside from it probably having less factories and industrial machinery on hand than the uptimer Midwest (though various automobile plants and other such productive hubs have sprung up over the last few decades), I think that the South's massive economic growth within the last few decades would greatly surprise most downtimers, with much the same applying to its political turnaround from a Democratic stronghold into reliable Republican country by 2012. Of course, for all of its gains in the financial sector, high-tech research and corporations headquartered in its region, severed trade links will probably cause a massive recession in the short term, similar to what you've said.

Given the perils of globalization as it applies to this scenario, which would also surprise downtimers who are accustomed to a dominant United States and a devastated Eurasia at this point in time, I'm thinking that--in addition to usual in-crisis practices of rationing and more sparing use of resources on the part of ordinary people (maybe also a revival of victory gardens in which households grow much of their own food or something like that)--Lower States would also pour funds into their manufacturing sector, probably also granting tax incentives to manufacturers that will probably have to wait for the future, due to how cash-strapped uptimer governments would be for the time being. And given how mechanical parts and components from 1952 are likely incompatible with 2012 machinery by and large, that'll wreck its own share of havoc on downtimer markets as well.

In the longer term, however, I suspect that once the downtimers find out about the decline of the once-booming Rust Belt and how jobs and plants going overseas to China of all places was an ongoing problem in the future that the uptimers came from, the US government will surely take steps to prevent international outsourcing and promote products 'Made in America, by Americans'. Perhaps the advice of W. Edward Deming will make a massive comeback ITTL, with official regulatory policy reflecting his ideas is some way or another. As far as further specifics go, I think that given its New Dealer leanings, Washington is more likely to erect trade barriers and more heavily bridle global markets in order to keep its heartland's beat going.

Similarly, I think they'll take a harder line against immigration once they find out about all of the undocumented immigrants living in the Lower States--and how some activists are pleading for amnesty, of all things (a likely summation of their words, not necessarily mine). Off the top of my head, I'm more than willing to bet that Joe McCarthy and other demagogues will blast the uptimers for how "soft" they are on enforcing existing law, likely via a mix of pointing to how undocumented works provide cheap labor and embracing more xenophobic talking points also employed by the particularly nativist elements of today's American right. Granted, they can rely on the Lower States to absorb flow of undocumented immigrants from the southern border on their behalf for the most part, but still. And that's without considering their likely reactions to the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965.

That encapsulates my second major wave of thoughts, anyway. Hopefully, it addressed your points well enough without waffling too much (which I'm naturally prone to, as you know).

  Zyobot ,

  Well if the south gets a fair amount of military forces outside their immediate waters that would help with the immediate issues.  Ditto and probably even more if enough satellites are brought alone so their communications are largely unaffected.  Would this also include those used for GPS and for intel gathering as that would make a big impact on both the Korean conflict and the wider cold war.

  The US could revert back to protectionism which is likely to cause some serious disruption of world trade as their only recently pressurised most of their allies to open up as well so its probable that a lot of other powers will follow suit which could lead to a big drop in world trade,  Could be good for Britain as it would allow it to resume the controls set up, such as on capital flow that were helping the fragile British economy recover after WWII and the US forced us to drop.  Also a shorter Korean war could help although much of the economic damage has been done.  The Marshall Plan transfers are largely completed by this time so Europe is starting to recover but this could be imperiled now if the US reimposes large trade barriers. 

  McCarthy may be less successful as there will be plenty of evidence of his lying and how much damage it caused.  Although having a look at the wiki page for McCarthyism he was being supported by J Edgar Hoover so it could mean a clash with him as well.  Ideally both might be removed from power fairly quickly but there could be a strong right wing backlash as a result of the news the south brings of 2012.  If so that's definitely going to deeper the divide between the two regions.

  In terms of migrant labour some interests, especially the unions, who have a fair amount of power at this point and won't want to be undercut.  However a fair amount of big business leaders would probably welcome cheap labour.  Although depending on the relative living standards and rules on working conditions and also how bad the short term economic impact of the shift is on the south you could see migration either way.  Possibly the existing south migrants could find their better off staying where they are and could even be undercut by northerners coming south.  [Possibly especially blacks who have moved north for better paid jobs and to escape Jim Crow.  A lot of them if the southern economy recovers could prefer to move south again as its less racist now and might offer better options.]

  Just occurred to me your probably killed off the Apollo Project.  Especially if the two groups form separate nations I can't really see either group having the desire to send men to the moon for quite a while.  The south has virtually all the information gained from the project and can make it available to others, as well as a lot of other info about the universe beyond Earth.  However the project would be old news to them and given it wasn't developed any further as humanity stayed in low orbit they may see it as rather pointless, at least for a couple of decades.  The north might see it as a way of restoring pride in the 1952 US but the costs could also deter them and also unless the south provides a launch base the project is going to be more difficult as they would have to launch from a higher latitude.  [Unless they used say a Pacific island base?]

  The south might want to push for controls on assorted environmental issues, possibly mostly air pollution and nuclear testing, at least in the atmosphere but I can't see any success in the latter for a while due to the fact the Soviets especially will see that as an attempt to restrict their own development.  Global warming is likely to be an issue as well but the level of denial is going to be far greater in the 1952 world, especially with so much of society dependent on coal especially.  However with 2012 technology thinks such as solar power could get an earlier start.  [Just thought would 1952 cars meet 2012 regulations, in terms of pollution, safety etc.  Suspect not which could be another issue between the south and the 1052 world, especially the north.]  Then of course there is information about cancer from smoking.  Going to be a 'fun' time in many ways.

First off, stevep , I think that as long as we're bringing back all essential communications equipment and infrastructure from 2012, we might as well throw in GPS and intelligence-gathering satellites. So consider the answer to that question a longer way of saying 'yes', though I think we should draw a line somewhere past that so that this scenario doesn't become a gigantic 'Lower States wank', though economic turmoil and a lack of clear leadership at first will certainly do a number on them whatever way we go with that.

Having considered your point about recent progress achieved in establishing global trade, I suppose that a trade network that sticks mainly to the Western Hemisphere--encompassing fellow, liberal-democratic nations with similar cultures and values that are compatible with American geopolitical objectives, with the other NATO states falling into that camp in particular--would make more sense. That said, I think they'd be far more cautious about opening up markets with China or other such analogues that spring up ITTL, in part because once he learns of what transpired after his death IOTL, Chairman Mao will purge future reformers like Deng Xiaoping and almost certainly keep China closed off to the outside world. For that, among other reasons, I wonder if OTL future presidents like Bill Clinton will receive less praise from Fifties historians, pundits and political analysts who learn of his purported role in abetting outsourcing to China (even if it took place in a future that won't come to pass this time around).

Regarding domestic upheaval, I also agree that while Joe McCarthy's bullish conduct during the OTL hearings concerning the Army seem like they'd discredit him somewhat, I've a feeling that he and like-minded demagogues will shift the goalposts by citing uptimer records of Soviet infiltrators and move onto demonizing the 2012 Lower States as 'godless, hedonistic products of the post-Sixties era' while championing double-downs on Fifties social mores and hostility towards left-wing influences, especially now that they know how the uptimer US was suckered into sending so much manufacturing capacity to China of all places, as previously mentioned.

Although I'm not as knowledgeable about the specifics of union influence at this time, I can see conflict between them and business interests emerging over the immigration debate that's sure to come to Fifties America soon enough. Granted, I'm not sure about how many migrants the Upper States are likely to receive due to how a) the Lower States are positioned to absorb the bulk of them and b) undocumented immigrants are more likely to prefer 2012 life anyway, due to how hostile and xenophobic their northern neighbor seems to be (which probably butterflies Operation Wetback, too). I can also imagine that downtimer blacks and other minorities would flood back to the South in short order, though their social conservatism in areas besides racial justice will need to be dealt with during the inevitable screening process that the Lower States will set up. One unfortunate side effect of this will probably be how unscrupulous uptimer businesses take advantage of their lowered expectations and treat them as cheap labor, however--though I'm sure that even if uptimer state governments more or less turn a blind eye to it (which is unlikely), news reports will generate outrage that pressure them to stop for the most part (or maybe not even start at all, if I'm being optimistic). On the other side of the aisle, I can conceive of the resulting 'minority flight' acting as political pressure for downtimers to stop treating nonwhite workers like dirt, though I'm sure that attempts to curtail this will be met with substantial resistance from the impractical, diehard racists that still pervade American society at this time.

Killing off the Apollo Project also seems reasonable in at least the short term, though I've little doubt that the Upper States will 'ask' for uptimer help in setting up their own space program, both because of the prestige involved and a desire to not remain permanently dependent on the Lower States' aid (which would only serve as another bargaining chip, should the uptimers issue more demands in the future). That said, I do think that the downtimers will take significant interest in the robots and unmanned probes that NASA has since sent to space (i.e. rovers like Curiosity, though that specific example seems to have been lost in the ISOT). Also, what might they make of private space companies like SpaceX, with their ambitions to commercialize human spaceflight and help enable Martian colonization and all? Government agencies being invested in sending men to the Moon is one thing, but the private sector harboring those same ambitions is quite another.

Beyond just its obvious presence in space exploration or military uses, there's also the rise technology's daily importance in twenty-first century life. I'm guessing that average downtimers would recognize modern TVs as way, way better than the boxy, grainy, black-and-white sets that they're used to--with full-color, clear audio and wireless remotes to boot (not to mention the endless range of channels that people have to choose from down south). As mentioned before, computers, smart devices and internet will generate their own strong reactions across the board, both by inspiring pure bafflement at first and being met with visceral condemnation by the moral guardians and vanguards of corporate media. The former would probably rail against them for their 'addictive nature' and 'empowerment of degenerate uptimer media', while the latter would seek to regulate them due to how they undercut their copyright-based business model. Governments would also no doubt take issue with digital technologies as well, for a mix of previously stated reasons and how they promote the proliferation of fake news and dangerous rhetoric (both imagined on their part and very much real). How the US in particular reconciles the Fairness Doctrine with the rise of online media--with its rampant citizen journalism and numerous, ever-changing outlets instead of the small assortment of Fifties firms with a monopoly on news--or reassesses future cases like New York Times Vs. Sullivan so that public figures can sue for defamation seems like they're worth their own post(s) to me. Obviously, the downtimers won't get their way as it applies to the Lower States, but as far as clamping down on their widespread adoption within their own countries, that sounds like something the likes of Mary Whitehouse and whatever media firms that also fear the internet's subversive tendencies would try. Whether they successfully suppress uptimer media or find themselves on the losing side of that battle eventually seems debatable, I think.

Even discounting moralistic hand-wringing, though, there's also the possibility that even usually-disinterested members of the downtimer electorate exhibit reluctance to welcome certain 2012 technologies with open arms, e.g. unionized factory workers' aversion to automation, which they'd see as cold, soulless, inhuman machines threatening to take their jobs away for the sake of maximizing executives' profit. Granted, the reality may be far different (with principles like the Luddite Fallacy probably coming into play here), but as the saying goes, a lie travels around the world in the time that the truth straps on its boots. And given their initial lack of knowledge on the subject, I think that the papers and networks that most Fifties people get their news from are bound to make mistakes in their reporting on matters like this (though that problem is certainly not limited to technology and its implications here). Similar might apply to nuclear power, especially given the catastrophic accidents that wrecked its reputation in the eyes of the Average Joe on the street.

Concerning everyday safety standards--although I don't know as much about them--I'm guessing that the story of the Ford Pinto might drive regulators to up the ante on car requirements early (no pun intended)? Legislation like that, I think, would go down with a whole lot less opposition from the general public than attempts to address smoking. Because while I've little doubt about popular outcry once it's made clear just how much and how long the tobacco industry scammed them, society's widespread nicotine addiction at this time seems way too hard to curb at a pace that uptimers would consider optimal--coming cigarette taxes and all.

[stevep]

   Zyobot ,

   In terms of international trade it might depend on what you mean by<abbr> "Western Hemisphere--encompassing fellow, liberal-democratic nations with similar cultures and values that are compatible with American geopolitical objectives, with the other NATO states falling into that camp in particular".  Sounds like your including most of western Europe and Latin America?  At this point both Britain and France especially still have large empires that fall outside that area and won't accept being cut off from them.  Also it would exclude informal areas of influence such as the ME and also India for example.  Possibly also Australia and New Zealand.  Britain has both close economic and cultural ties with those areas.  Not to mention Japan, which I think is still under US control at this point and an important local base and source of materials for the Korean war and the Philippines. 

  Plus if the down-timers check the records that come down from 2012 they will see that the 1st wave of US exporting of industry was to western Europe and also more recently to Mexico.

  As such I can't really see such a policy working.  It would fit with local interests in the north US but clash with a hell of a lot of the rest of the world, many of whom would see it as a case of the US wanting to have their cake and eat it.  Also would the uptime south have the same stance or would it be more aware of the need for international trade?  A lot of its facilities would be difficult to export in the short term anyway but it might need some materials to help in its down-grading to maintain facilities as it probably won't be able to maintain its current level of technology in the short term because it is so dependent on imports of high technology products.  

  I would agree that China's development is likely to be drastically changed, unless some group manages to coup Mao, which is probably unlikely.  As such paranoia about it in the down-time US and to a degree in the up-time area is likely to be misplaced, at least for some decades.  [Given its size and population its going to be a major economic state at some stage].  However what does 1952 US do to prevent Japanese economic development?  Until it let the financiers take over it was Japan that was see as the 'threat' overtaking the US - as well as the rest of the western world - and some of the key roots are already in place there.  Let alone that of parts of western Europe?  The US needs to accept that it will not maintain its overwhelming domination of the industrial economy as that was largely a fluke event due to the devastation of WWII in the other developed areas in the world and the US getting a massive boost as it supplied materials for both its own and allied force.

  You might be right about people like McCarthy managed to ride a new wave of fear and bigotry to stay in power and drive the US further into xenophobia but I would hope not and I don't think this would last for more than another few years at most.  It would be too damaging to the US and would quickly be seen as such. 

  One point we haven't really touched on yet is the impact on the rest of the world.  How does Stalin [not] accept the failure of the Soviet Union and also probably how does western Europe react to news of the 'future'?  Thinking possibly especially of Britain, France and Belgium who still have sizeable colonial empires.  No doubt there will be a lot of conflict in each country as to what to do.  Decolonise faster or try and hold onto at least some important areas.  Stamping down on people who become leaders of resistance movements or trying to negotiate with them.  Especially in areas dominated by significant white settler populations.  Is there a Rhodesian UDI in this TL.  Or what happens in Vietnam?  Let alone how do they react to internal changes in the period 1952-2012? 

 In terms of technology and social change there will be resistance but it will have limited effects, at least in the longer term.  People will have fears about things such as pornography and violence, not to mention the savagely and frequent dishonesty of much of what passes for political 'comment' in 2012 US.  Many will probably see comparisons with the Nazis and Communists in terms of the violence of much of the commentary.  However I think it will prove impossible to prevent technology becoming used, at least in democratic areas. 

  Tolerating the dominate political ideas of the 2012 world is less likely I suspect.  Having recently gone through the depression and WWII I think there will be a lot more acceptance of active government involvement in the economy than the modern period and a continuation if strong social identities.  The idea that only a few very wealthy people matter is likely to be resoundingly rejected in much of western Europe anyway.

  Steve

[lordroel]

Jun 20, 2020 12:08:39 GMT stevep said:

   Zyobot ,

   In terms of international trade it might depend on what you mean by<abbr> "Western Hemisphere--encompassing fellow, liberal-democratic nations with similar cultures and values that are compatible with American geopolitical objectives, with the other NATO states falling into that camp in particular".  Sounds like your including most of western Europe and Latin America?  At this point both Britain and France especially still have large empires that fall outside that area and won't accept being cut off from them.  Also it would exclude informal areas of influence such as the ME and also India for example.  Possibly also Australia and New Zealand.  Britain has both close economic and cultural ties with those areas.  Not to mention Japan, which I think is still under US control at this point and an important local base and source of materials for the Korean war and the Philippines. 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  Plus if the down-timers check the records that come down from 2012 they will see that the 1st wave of US exporting of industry was to western Europe and also more recently to Mexico.
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  As such I can't really see such a policy working.  It would fit with local interests in the north US but clash with a hell of a lot of the rest of the world, many of whom would see it as a case of the US wanting to have their cake and eat it.  Also would the uptime south have the same stance or would it be more aware of the need for international trade?  A lot of its facilities would be difficult to export in the short term anyway but it might need some materials to help in its down-grading to maintain facilities as it probably won't be able to maintain its current level of technology in the short term because it is so dependent on imports of high technology products. 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  I would agree that China's development is likely to be drastically changed, unless some group manages to coup Mao, which is probably unlikely.  As such paranoia about it in the down-time US and to a degree in the up-time area is likely to be misplaced, at least for some decades.  [Given its size and population its going to be a major economic state at some stage].  However what does 1952 US do to prevent Japanese economic development?  Until it let the financiers take over it was Japan that was see as the 'threat' overtaking the US - as well as the rest of the western world - and some of the key roots are already in place there.  Let alone that of parts of western Europe?  The US needs to accept that it will not maintain its overwhelming domination of the industrial economy as that was largely a fluke event due to the devastation of WWII in the other developed areas in the world and the US getting a massive boost as it supplied materials for both its own and allied force.</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  You might be right about people like McCarthy managed to ride a new wave of fear and bigotry to stay in power and drive the US further into xenophobia but I would hope not and I don't think this would last for more than another few years at most.  It would be too damaging to the US and would quickly be seen as such. 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  One point we haven't really touched on yet is the impact on the rest of the world.  How does Stalin [not] accept the failure of the Soviet Union and also probably how does western Europe react to news of the 'future'?  Thinking possibly especially of Britain, France and Belgium who still have sizeable colonial empires.  No doubt there will be a lot of conflict in each country as to what to do.  Decolonise faster or try and hold onto at least some important areas.  Stamping down on people who become leaders of resistance movements or trying to negotiate with them.  Especially in areas dominated by significant white settler populations.  Is there a Rhodesian UDI in this TL.  Or what happens in Vietnam?  Let alone how do they react to internal changes in the period 1952-2012? 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  In terms of technology and social change there will be resistance but it will have limited effects, at least in the longer term.  People will have fears about things such as pornography and violence, not to mention the savagely and frequent dishonesty of much of what passes for political 'comment' in 2012 US.  Many will probably see comparisons with the Nazis and Communists in terms of the violence of much of the commentary.  However I think it will prove impossible to prevent technology becoming used, at least in democratic areas. 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  Tolerating the dominate political ideas of the 2012 world is less likely I suspect.  Having recently gone through the depression and WWII I think there will be a lot more acceptance of active government involvement in the economy than the modern period and a continuation if strong social identities.  The idea that only a few very wealthy people matter is likely to be resoundingly rejected in much of western Europe anyway.
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  Steve
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr> 
</abbr>

Did a troll mess with you post stevep.

[stevep]

Jun 20, 2020 12:09:27 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 20, 2020 12:08:39 GMT stevep said:

   Zyobot ,

   In terms of international trade it might depend on what you mean by<abbr> "Western Hemisphere--encompassing fellow, liberal-democratic nations with similar cultures and values that are compatible with American geopolitical objectives, with the other NATO states falling into that camp in particular".  Sounds like your including most of western Europe and Latin America?  At this point both Britain and France especially still have large empires that fall outside that area and won't accept being cut off from them.  Also it would exclude informal areas of influence such as the ME and also India for example.  Possibly also Australia and New Zealand.  Britain has both close economic and cultural ties with those areas.  Not to mention Japan, which I think is still under US control at this point and an important local base and source of materials for the Korean war and the Philippines. 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  Plus if the down-timers check the records that come down from 2012 they will see that the 1st wave of US exporting of industry was to western Europe and also more recently to Mexico.
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  As such I can't really see such a policy working.  It would fit with local interests in the north US but clash with a hell of a lot of the rest of the world, many of whom would see it as a case of the US wanting to have their cake and eat it.  Also would the uptime south have the same stance or would it be more aware of the need for international trade?  A lot of its facilities would be difficult to export in the short term anyway but it might need some materials to help in its down-grading to maintain facilities as it probably won't be able to maintain its current level of technology in the short term because it is so dependent on imports of high technology products. 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  I would agree that China's development is likely to be drastically changed, unless some group manages to coup Mao, which is probably unlikely.  As such paranoia about it in the down-time US and to a degree in the up-time area is likely to be misplaced, at least for some decades.  [Given its size and population its going to be a major economic state at some stage].  However what does 1952 US do to prevent Japanese economic development?  Until it let the financiers take over it was Japan that was see as the 'threat' overtaking the US - as well as the rest of the western world - and some of the key roots are already in place there.  Let alone that of parts of western Europe?  The US needs to accept that it will not maintain its overwhelming domination of the industrial economy as that was largely a fluke event due to the devastation of WWII in the other developed areas in the world and the US getting a massive boost as it supplied materials for both its own and allied force.</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  You might be right about people like McCarthy managed to ride a new wave of fear and bigotry to stay in power and drive the US further into xenophobia but I would hope not and I don't think this would last for more than another few years at most.  It would be too damaging to the US and would quickly be seen as such. 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  One point we haven't really touched on yet is the impact on the rest of the world.  How does Stalin [not] accept the failure of the Soviet Union and also probably how does western Europe react to news of the 'future'?  Thinking possibly especially of Britain, France and Belgium who still have sizeable colonial empires.  No doubt there will be a lot of conflict in each country as to what to do.  Decolonise faster or try and hold onto at least some important areas.  Stamping down on people who become leaders of resistance movements or trying to negotiate with them.  Especially in areas dominated by significant white settler populations.  Is there a Rhodesian UDI in this TL.  Or what happens in Vietnam?  Let alone how do they react to internal changes in the period 1952-2012? 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  In terms of technology and social change there will be resistance but it will have limited effects, at least in the longer term.  People will have fears about things such as pornography and violence, not to mention the savagely and frequent dishonesty of much of what passes for political 'comment' in 2012 US.  Many will probably see comparisons with the Nazis and Communists in terms of the violence of much of the commentary.  However I think it will prove impossible to prevent technology becoming used, at least in democratic areas. 
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  Tolerating the dominate political ideas of the 2012 world is less likely I suspect.  Having recently gone through the depression and WWII I think there will be a lot more acceptance of active government involvement in the economy than the modern period and a continuation if strong social identities.  The idea that only a few very wealthy people matter is likely to be resoundingly rejected in much of western Europe anyway.
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr>  Steve
</abbr>

<abbr>
</abbr>

<abbr> 
</abbr>

Did a troll mess with you post stevep .

  Not sure what happened?  Just manuall edited it to get all those control characters out.  Possibly one of them is upset about my comments about their work?

[lordroel]

Jun 20, 2020 12:12:24 GMT stevep said:

Jun 20, 2020 12:09:27 GMT lordroel said:

Did a troll mess with you post stevep .

  Not sure what happened?  Just manuall edited it to get all those control characters out.  Possibly one of them is upset about my comments about their work?

Well it is not one of my trolls, but be a Irish leprechaun who manged to sneak into you computer then.