The Eighties Without Reagan

[mspence]

So WI George H.W. Bush or even Bob Dole had won in 1980 instead of Reagan, would the Cold War and the economy have gone any differently?

[stevep]

Aug 22, 2020 5:39:47 GMT mspence said:

So WI George H.W. Bush or even Bob Dole had won in 1980 instead of Reagan, would the Cold War and the economy have gone any differently?

  Probably no great changes in the cold war.  Have read that the initial military build up under Reagan wasn't massively greater than Carter was committed to.  After the invasion of Afghanistan detente was basically in a coma if not dead so there would be continued tension.  Probably no SDI/Star Wars programme which would have possibly made it last a bit longer but the Soviet empire was already starting to stagger prominently.  The big issue is does Gorbachev end up as Soviet leader or some hard liner?  If the latter it could end with a bang rather than a whimper - which could be very bad for everybody.

  If Bush [say] didn't feel pushed to adopt Reagan's hard line economic policies then you could see a more successful US economically.  Definitely won't have something like Reagan's notorious chips speech.  However the pressure for a right wing reaction to Keynesian economics and its more broad social policies was under way.  It had already started in Britain with Thatcher so you could see a later President, almost certainly but not necessarily Republican, bringing a more elitist policy into play.  However over 40 years so much could have happened in so many different ways.

[lordroel]

Aug 22, 2020 5:39:47 GMT mspence said:

So WI George H.W. Bush or even Bob Dole had won in 1980 instead of Reagan, would the Cold War and the economy have gone any differently?

Do not think the soviet Union can hold out for more than 20 years even with somebody else winning the presidency than Reagan.

[stevep]

Aug 22, 2020 9:45:31 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 22, 2020 5:39:47 GMT mspence said:

So WI George H.W. Bush or even Bob Dole had won in 1980 instead of Reagan, would the Cold War and the economy have gone any differently?

Do not think the soviet Union can hold out for more than 20 years even with somebody else winning the presidency than Reagan.

  Would agree.  Very likely to go down within at most 5 years from OTL once it got involved in Afghanistan - assuming the OTL western support for the rebels.  The question is how would it die?

[kasumigenx]

Iraq would have been taken over by US if George Bush was president earlier.

[gral]

Apr 12, 2021 8:13:31 GMT kasumigenx said:

Iraq would have been taken over by US if George Bush was president earlier.

Situation was completely different in the 80's - Iraq was fighting big bad Iran back then. I don't see a big change in attitude by the US regarding Iraq.

[kasumigenx]

Apr 12, 2021 12:14:46 GMT gral said:

Apr 12, 2021 8:13:31 GMT kasumigenx said:

Iraq would have been taken over by US if George Bush was president earlier.

Situation was completely different in the 80's - Iraq was fighting big bad Iran back then. I don't see a big change in attitude by the US regarding Iraq.

Yes, but he would try to puppetize that area earlier.