Republicans win the Spanish Civil War?

[James G]

Can the Republicans win the war against Franco? How?
What does this change with the balance of power in Europe afterwards? Does Spain turn into a Soviet client state?
World War Two starts due to Spain?

[american2006]

Sept 30, 2020 20:11:57 GMT James G said:

Can the Republicans win the war against Franco? How?
What does this change with the balance of power in Europe afterwards? Does Spain turn into a Soviet client state?
World War Two starts due to Spain?

Completely unrelated, I initially read this as the Republican Party (in the US) winning the Spanish Civil War. I was confused for a second. Anyway...

Spain as a republic would likely result in it coming under the sphere of Western nations (ie non-Authoritarians) as the Republicans in power would want to distance themselves from very powerful governments like Germany, Italy, the Soviet Union, etc. Better relations with Portugal. If Spain where the join WWII in this scenario (though they probably wouldn't, because they still are recovering from a civil war) they would probably help stop France from falling as quickly, but France still would of fallen without the broader support of the US/USSR. They might have a big impact on the war in Africa, but the European war (by this I mean the German Front) would probably not see much Spanish combat, as they are relatively isolated by the Pyrenees. Overall, Italy might fall faster, but per the war with Germany and/or Japan, it probably wouldn't be much different.

As for it starting with Spain, I think that WWII could only have been started by an Axis nation attacking an Allied nation. Most likely, this is Germany with Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Denmark, or the Low Countries, but it could have been Japan attacking the colonies of France, Britain, or the US in Asia or on the Soviet Union in the Pacific Sphere. Yes, Italy could of started the war, but considering that the allies did very little to stop Hitler from invading and controlling Austria (which, by the way, was 100 years ago deemed a power as great as Germany, France and Britain, and by Germany I mean Prussia), I doubt France/Britain would have done much if parts of Africa where lost, unless its a major colony like South Africa or Egypt or even Syria. The only other real option I see would be the Soviet Union attacking Germany or Japan (probably Germany) but this is unlikely. The Monarchists coming to power in Spain didn't start WWII, so likely the Republicans wouldn't either.

[stevep]

Sept 30, 2020 20:11:57 GMT James G said:

Can the Republicans win the war against Franco? How?
What does this change with the balance of power in Europe afterwards? Does Spain turn into a Soviet client state?
World War Two starts due to Spain?

  Possibly the best bet might be if for some reason something goes seriously wrong with the movement of Franco's army from Spanish Morocco and for whatever reason it turns into a major disaster.  Possibly both militarily i.e. with heavy losses and a lot disruption of the survivors and politically with what was obviously a failed coup attempt undermining the right and moblising feeling in support of the republic.

  Another option might be that Franco wasn't initially the only major fascist leader.  Remember reading that one significant one with a lot of support died in an air crash early in the conflict. [Can't remember if there was anything suspicious about it].  Possibly he or another figure on the right ends up feuding with Franco and the fascists are as or more divided in infighting than the republicans.

  That is another option that somehow the republic gets better leadership, especially with the communists quickly defeated/isolated so that they don't cause a lot of infighting and also it would make them seem more acceptable to the western democracies.

  If the republic wins then is it dominated by socialists or communists?  If the former it might well support the allies which is likely to mean it gets attacked as well.  Spain would then likely fall as well which could result in the loss of Gibraltar and possibly the Germans being able to cross into N Africa into Morocco.  This would probably take until the end of 1940 given the terrain and the strain on German logistics but it could be very bad for the allies.

  If a Republican victory was led/followed by a communist take over then the state may survive until Barbarossa occurs at which point your probably going to also have an invasion of communist Spain.  Which could be rather confusing as your likely to see British intervention on their behave, a very peculiar alliance indeed.  That could get very chaotic.

  Steve

[lordroel]

Sept 30, 2020 20:11:57 GMT James G said:

Can the Republicans win the war against Franco? How?
What does this change with the balance of power in Europe afterwards? Does Spain turn into a Soviet client state?
World War Two starts due to Spain?

Then by 1941 the Germans launch a invasion of Spain and if Franco has not been shot by the Republicans is put back into power.

[stevep]

Oct 1, 2020 14:00:42 GMT lordroel said:

Sept 30, 2020 20:11:57 GMT James G said:

Can the Republicans win the war against Franco? How?
What does this change with the balance of power in Europe afterwards? Does Spain turn into a Soviet client state?
World War Two starts due to Spain?

Then by 1941 the Germans launch a invasion of Spain and if Franco has not been shot by the Republicans is put back into power.

  Agree with the 1st part, especially if the Republic has escaped fascism only to fall to communism.  Depending on the circumstances Franco, as well as ending up dead, may simply be seen as too irrelevant if he has failed to become the end of the fascist forces.

[lordroel]

Oct 2, 2020 10:02:23 GMT stevep said:

Oct 1, 2020 14:00:42 GMT lordroel said:

Then by 1941 the Germans launch a invasion of Spain and if Franco has not been shot by the Republicans is put back into power.

  Agree with the 1st part, especially if the Republic has escaped fascism only to fall to communism.  Depending on the circumstances Franco, as well as ending up dead, may simply be seen as too irrelevant if he has failed to become the end of the fascist forces.

I should have added if Franco was involved in the Spanish Civil War, him being killed before ore during the civil war might be one of the reasons in the Republicans winning the Spanish Civil War?.