forcon
Lieutenant Commander
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Post by forcon on Nov 7, 2020 18:22:59 GMT
Part I.
In Latvia, Pro-Moscow march turns violent
The New York Times, December 14
A march by ethnic Russians in Latvia’s southern Daugavpils Region turned violent on Sunday as counter-demonstrators arrived on the scene. The march was originally organised as a protest against Latvia’s alleged maltreatment of Russian citizens within its borders. Latvia’s population is approximately 25.2% Russian. The former Soviet Republic is a NATO member, which in recent years has become the target of speculation about potential Russian actions in the wake of the Ukraine’s ongoing unrest.
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Unrest in NATO’s eastern republics escalates
Le Monde, December 22
A wave of protests in Latvia, a NATO member state in Eastern Europe, was followed by the outbreak of additional demonstrations in the neighbouring states of Estonia, to the east, and Lithuania, to the west. The protests come as a response to the Latvian government’s failure to protect its Russian minority. A riot last week saw three Russian citizens killed in Daugavpils, a Latvian city with a population that is majority-Russian. The killings were allegedly the actions of Latvian nationalists, although some have speculated that the Latvian government was behind the murders.
So far, no arrests have been made, and pro-Russian minority groups claim that a cover-up is underway to protect the killers from criminal prosecution. The dissent brewing in the three Baltic States is of concern to NATO as a whole, with the potential for further escalation between nationalist groups causing significant worry.
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Thugs beat Brit soldiers!
The Sun, December 28
Four British soldiers stationed in Estonia as part of the British-led NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroup were viciously assaulted by a group of hooligans armed with bats and crowbars in a shocking attack against British personnel.
The incident occurred outside a McDonald’s restaurant where the soldiers, who reportedly belonged to the Royal Welsh Regiment, had gone to eat. CCTV footage shows a group of men wearing motorcycle helmets emerge from around a corner and attack the soldiers, who bravely attempted to defend themselves despite being unarmed. Two soldiers have been hospitalised with broken bones, while the other two remain under observation.
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Worsening unrest in Estonia, Latvia, stokes fears of Russian involvement
BBC News, January 3
A wave of protests that escalated into riots and culminated in the violent beating of four British soldiers stationed in Estonia last week has again reignited in the two Baltic States of Estonia and Latvia. Both countries are NATO members which have feared Russian incursions since Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014.
The riots occurring in both countries following the deaths of three Russian nationals in a protest in Latvia late last year, show no sign of relenting. In Narva, an Estonian town on the border with Russia, riot police grappled with demonstrators for control of the streets, eventually resorting to using water cannons to subdue the rioters.
A statement by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted fears of Russian involvement in the unrest.
“Moscow has a history of meddling in the affairs of European nations,” said Stoltenberg. “While we will not jump to any conclusions, or make any rash decisions involving a response, there are going to be investigations.”
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Mother killed by German soldiers!
Russia Today, January 7
Camera footage taken from a cell phone shows a German tank running over a Russian woman in Lithuania. The vast column of German tanks, that were moving east towards the Russian border with Latvia, were allegedly part of a NATO exercise. This so-called exercise led to the death of Valerie Kasimov, a thirty-three year-old Russian woman and a loving mother who was killed by the German soldiers while merely crossing the street.
The incident highlights the total lack of concern for the safety of Russian people’s living in Lithuania and the other Baltic States. With such reprehensible actions having practically become commonplace, it is the duty of the Russian government to defend its people from further atrocities.
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Rioting spreads to Lithuania; riot police respond
Le Monde, January 11
A demonstration in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, in response to the accidental killing of a Russian woman by a German tank crew during a training exercise, turned violent last night. Riot police responded with heavy-handed tactics, with footage having emerged of police officers clad in body armour beating several women.
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Russian spies dressed as police!
The Baltic Times, January 12
Several people came forward to say that they apparently heard so-called ‘riot-police’ in Lithuania speaking to each other in Russian dialect, casting a shadow of doubt on the protestor’s narrative, which claims that police and security forces have been conducting acts of violence and repression against them.
Video footage and photographs of several police officers also show that numerous ‘officers’ appear to be wearing improper equipment. A source in Lithuania’s Defence Ministry pointed out that the pistol carried by one of the men identified was of the GSH-18 model, a weapon which is not in service with Lithuania’s security forces. That type of firearm is, however, utilised by elements of Russia’s security apparatus.
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NATO members meet to discuss unrest in eastern members
The Guardian, January 15
A wave of rioting and unrest has been ongoing in NATO’s easternmost states for over a month. As the riots spread to Lithuania last week, NATO member states finally agreed to hold an emergency meeting to discuss potential involvement of Russian intelligence services in the unrest, and a NATO response to such an intervention if it were to be proven.
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Russian oversight of Baltic minorities the ‘only way to ensure democracy’, says Putin
CNN, January 21
The only way to ensure a fair and democratic solution to the civil unrest currently sweeping through the Baltic States is by Russian ‘oversight’, President Vladimir Putin claimed in a speech issued from the Kremlin. The Russian President, whose military interventions in Ukraine and Syria have met vehement criticism in the West, is perceived as a strongman by many.
The prospect of Russian military intervention in the Baltic States has always been a concern for NATO. After the intervention in Ukraine, the Alliance deployed ‘Enhanced Forward Presence’ battlegroups to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. The forces are in place to act as a ‘tripwire’ to deter Russian aggression against the Baltic States.
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Moscow behind Baltic unrest, sources claim
The Telegraph, January 26
Sources speaking on the condition of anonymity have disclosed to the Telegraph that a Russian-based mercenary organisation called the Wagner Group, which has operated on behalf of the Kremlin in Syria, is behind the escalating violence in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, NATO’s three easternmost members. An investigation by MI6 into the ongoing unrest revealed that a Russian man known to be in the employee of the Wagner Group, has been captured on tape at several riots in Latvia. Furthermore…[Subscribe for full article.]
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Stoltenberg - NATO reluctant to respond forcefully
CNN, January 29
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told CNN that the Alliance was reluctant to respond forcefully to Russian ‘meddling’ in the Baltic States, for fear of provoking a harsher response by Russia. Instead, a planned NATO exercise that was set to involve up to 15,000 troops and take place in March has been postponed in order to mitigate the risk of escalation. The exercise is now scheduled for July, but it has been revealed that the number of troops involved will almost double, in what can only be perceived as a show of resolve.
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Hundreds feared dead in Russian transport plane crash
Reuters, February 4
An IL-76 transport plane of the Russian Air Force has crashed over the Baltic Sea. While further details are lacking, it is not believed that there were any survivors. The aircraft took off from Pskov, near St. Petersburg and was carrying members of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division to the isolated exclave of Kaliningrad as part of a planned winter exercise. The airplane crashed over the Gulf of Riga from an unknown cause. More details are to follow.
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Russia rejects NATO help in airplane crash recovery
Le Monde, February 6
Although it is highly unlikely that survivors would be located at this juncture, several NATO ships were vectored towards the region of the Baltic Sea where a Russian transport aircraft apparently crashed two days ago. However, the vessels were turned away by Russian ships on the scene. A statement from Russia’s Defence Ministry indicates that Moscow fears NATO involvement in the incident and wishes to control the investigation.
Although there is no indication of Western involvement in the crash of the IL-76 transport aircraft, tensions between NATO and Russia have steadily heightened over the course of the past two months, as the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania face an outpouring of unrest from their ethnically Russian minorities, which NATO intelligence services claim has been orchestrated by the Kremlin.
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Putin says ‘perpetrators’ of plane crash will be ‘severely punished’
CNN, February 12
An outpouring of national grief occurred in Pskov today, where President Putin led a parade in honour of the 254 Russian servicemen and women who are believed to have lost their lives when a Russian transport plane ferrying the troops to Kaliningrad crashed over the Baltic Sea last week.
Investigations by NATO agencies have met little success as Russia has moved to seal of the crash site. While there is no apparent indication of foul play, Moscow has followed a narrative that the crash was not the result of pilot error or a mechanical fault, and that an outside organisation is responsible for the incident.
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Largest exercise since 2017 underway in Western Military District
RIA Novosti, February 15
A snap-exercise involved almost thirty battalions of tanks and infantry, as well as warplanes and artillery, has been ordered by President Putin himself in the wake of the tragic and suspicious loss of an Air Force IL-76 aircraft over the Gulf of Riga. The aircraft’s loss has been yet been attributed to any individual nation or organisation, but it is thought that NATO actions may have caused the crash and the subsequent deaths of 254 brave Russian soldiers and airmen.
As a result of this, the Western Military District has been ordered to hold a sudden ‘snap’ exercise to demonstrate its military readiness to repel aggression from the West. The exercise will involve over 100,000 troops and is scheduled to begin in less than three days’ time. In the West, NATO officials have scheduled numerous complaints about the suddenness of the planned operation, even though it will take place on Russian soil.
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NATO could back down in war, leaked communique reveals
Le Monde, February 16
A shocking communique revealed that NATO commanders in the Baltic States, where troops from various states including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark and Czechia are stationed, would be ordered to stand down if the Baltic States were invaded by Russian forces.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are categorised as ‘strategically indefensible’ by NATO military commanders. The communique indicates that while NATO forces could resist an attack initially, the forces deployed in the Baltic States are not strong enough to prevent a fiat accompli by Russia, and thus they could be ordered to surrender to prevent their complete destruction in the event of an invasion by Russia.
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Explosion rocks Riga Harbour in Latvia, details to follow
Reuters, February 17
A major explosion has occurred in the harbour of Riga, Latvia. The extent of the damage has yet to be realised, but it is apparent that there are casualties. Sirens can be heard rushing towards the site of the explosion. Further details will follow.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Likes: 13,222
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Post by stevep on Nov 7, 2020 19:38:07 GMT
forcon , Oh dear, this doesn't sound good. Especially given Putin's past record. I could see elements in NATO thinking that the region is indefensible but from the thread title I suspect that Putin is going to get a nasty surprise. Plus it raises the question of what happens to the Kalinngrad enclave in the resulting conflict.
Steve
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lordroel
Administrator
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Post by lordroel on Nov 7, 2020 19:41:50 GMT
Part I.
In Latvia, Pro-Moscow march turns violent
The New York Times, December 14
A march by ethnic Russians in Latvia’s southern Daugavpils Region turned violent on Sunday as counter-demonstrators arrived on the scene. The march was originally organised as a protest against Latvia’s alleged maltreatment of Russian citizens within its borders. Latvia’s population is approximately 25.2% Russian. The former Soviet Republic is a NATO member, which in recent years has become the target of speculation about potential Russian actions in the wake of the Ukraine’s ongoing unrest.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Unrest in NATO’s eastern republics escalates
Le Monde, December 22
A wave of protests in Latvia, a NATO member state in Eastern Europe, was followed by the outbreak of additional demonstrations in the neighbouring states of Estonia, to the east, and Lithuania, to the west. The protests come as a response to the Latvian government’s failure to protect its Russian minority. A riot last week saw three Russian citizens killed in Daugavpils, a Latvian city with a population that is majority-Russian. The killings were allegedly the actions of Latvian nationalists, although some have speculated that the Latvian government was behind the murders.
So far, no arrests have been made, and pro-Russian minority groups claim that a cover-up is underway to protect the killers from criminal prosecution. The dissent brewing in the three Baltic States is of concern to NATO as a whole, with the potential for further escalation between nationalist groups causing significant worry.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Thugs beat Brit soldiers!
The Sun, December 28
Four British soldiers stationed in Estonia as part of the British-led NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroup were viciously assaulted by a group of hooligans armed with bats and crowbars in a shocking attack against British personnel.
The incident occurred outside a McDonald’s restaurant where the soldiers, who reportedly belonged to the Royal Welsh Regiment, had gone to eat. CCTV footage shows a group of men wearing motorcycle helmets emerge from around a corner and attack the soldiers, who bravely attempted to defend themselves despite being unarmed. Two soldiers have been hospitalised with broken bones, while the other two remain under observation.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Worsening unrest in Estonia, Latvia, stokes fears of Russian involvement
BBC News, January 3
A wave of protests that escalated into riots and culminated in the violent beating of four British soldiers stationed in Estonia last week has again reignited in the two Baltic States of Estonia and Latvia. Both countries are NATO members which have feared Russian incursions since Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014.
The riots occurring in both countries following the deaths of three Russian nationals in a protest in Latvia late last year, show no sign of relenting. In Narva, an Estonian town on the border with Russia, riot police grappled with demonstrators for control of the streets, eventually resorting to using water cannons to subdue the rioters.
A statement by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted fears of Russian involvement in the unrest.
“Moscow has a history of meddling in the affairs of European nations,” said Stoltenberg. “While we will not jump to any conclusions, or make any rash decisions involving a response, there are going to be investigations.”
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Mother killed by German soldiers!
Russia Today, January 7
Camera footage taken from a cell phone shows a German tank running over a Russian woman in Lithuania. The vast column of German tanks, that were moving east towards the Russian border with Latvia, were allegedly part of a NATO exercise. This so-called exercise led to the death of Valerie Kasimov, a thirty-three year-old Russian woman and a loving mother who was killed by the German soldiers while merely crossing the street.
The incident highlights the total lack of concern for the safety of Russian people’s living in Lithuania and the other Baltic States. With such reprehensible actions having practically become commonplace, it is the duty of the Russian government to defend its people from further atrocities.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Rioting spreads to Lithuania; riot police respond
Le Monde, January 11
A demonstration in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, in response to the accidental killing of a Russian woman by a German tank crew during a training exercise, turned violent last night. Riot police responded with heavy-handed tactics, with footage having emerged of police officers clad in body armour beating several women.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Russian spies dressed as police!
The Baltic Times, January 12
Several people came forward to say that they apparently heard so-called ‘riot-police’ in Lithuania speaking to each other in Russian dialect, casting a shadow of doubt on the protestor’s narrative, which claims that police and security forces have been conducting acts of violence and repression against them.
Video footage and photographs of several police officers also show that numerous ‘officers’ appear to be wearing improper equipment. A source in Lithuania’s Defence Ministry pointed out that the pistol carried by one of the men identified was of the GSH-18 model, a weapon which is not in service with Lithuania’s security forces. That type of firearm is, however, utilised by elements of Russia’s security apparatus.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
NATO members meet to discuss unrest in eastern members
The Guardian, January 15
A wave of rioting and unrest has been ongoing in NATO’s easternmost states for over a month. As the riots spread to Lithuania last week, NATO member states finally agreed to hold an emergency meeting to discuss potential involvement of Russian intelligence services in the unrest, and a NATO response to such an intervention if it were to be proven.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Russian oversight of Baltic minorities the ‘only way to ensure democracy’, says Putin
CNN, January 21
The only way to ensure a fair and democratic solution to the civil unrest currently sweeping through the Baltic States is by Russian ‘oversight’, President Vladimir Putin claimed in a speech issued from the Kremlin. The Russian President, whose military interventions in Ukraine and Syria have met vehement criticism in the West, is perceived as a strongman by many.
The prospect of Russian military intervention in the Baltic States has always been a concern for NATO. After the intervention in Ukraine, the Alliance deployed ‘Enhanced Forward Presence’ battlegroups to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. The forces are in place to act as a ‘tripwire’ to deter Russian aggression against the Baltic States.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Moscow behind Baltic unrest, sources claim
The Telegraph, January 26
Sources speaking on the condition of anonymity have disclosed to the Telegraph that a Russian-based mercenary organisation called the Wagner Group, which has operated on behalf of the Kremlin in Syria, is behind the escalating violence in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, NATO’s three easternmost members. An investigation by MI6 into the ongoing unrest revealed that a Russian man known to be in the employee of the Wagner Group, has been captured on tape at several riots in Latvia. Furthermore…[Subscribe for full article.]
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Stoltenberg - NATO reluctant to respond forcefully
CNN, January 29
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told CNN that the Alliance was reluctant to respond forcefully to Russian ‘meddling’ in the Baltic States, for fear of provoking a harsher response by Russia. Instead, a planned NATO exercise that was set to involve up to 15,000 troops and take place in March has been postponed in order to mitigate the risk of escalation. The exercise is now scheduled for July, but it has been revealed that the number of troops involved will almost double, in what can only be perceived as a show of resolve.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Hundreds feared dead in Russian transport plane crash
Reuters, February 4
An IL-76 transport plane of the Russian Air Force has crashed over the Baltic Sea. While further details are lacking, it is not believed that there were any survivors. The aircraft took off from Pskov, near St. Petersburg and was carrying members of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division to the isolated exclave of Kaliningrad as part of a planned winter exercise. The airplane crashed over the Gulf of Riga from an unknown cause. More details are to follow.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Russia rejects NATO help in airplane crash recovery
Le Monde, February 6
Although it is highly unlikely that survivors would be located at this juncture, several NATO ships were vectored towards the region of the Baltic Sea where a Russian transport aircraft apparently crashed two days ago. However, the vessels were turned away by Russian ships on the scene. A statement from Russia’s Defence Ministry indicates that Moscow fears NATO involvement in the incident and wishes to control the investigation.
Although there is no indication of Western involvement in the crash of the IL-76 transport aircraft, tensions between NATO and Russia have steadily heightened over the course of the past two months, as the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania face an outpouring of unrest from their ethnically Russian minorities, which NATO intelligence services claim has been orchestrated by the Kremlin.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Putin says ‘perpetrators’ of plane crash will be ‘severely punished’
CNN, February 12
An outpouring of national grief occurred in Pskov today, where President Putin led a parade in honour of the 254 Russian servicemen and women who are believed to have lost their lives when a Russian transport plane ferrying the troops to Kaliningrad crashed over the Baltic Sea last week.
Investigations by NATO agencies have met little success as Russia has moved to seal of the crash site. While there is no apparent indication of foul play, Moscow has followed a narrative that the crash was not the result of pilot error or a mechanical fault, and that an outside organisation is responsible for the incident.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Largest exercise since 2017 underway in Western Military District
RIA Novosti, February 15
A snap-exercise involved almost thirty battalions of tanks and infantry, as well as warplanes and artillery, has been ordered by President Putin himself in the wake of the tragic and suspicious loss of an Air Force IL-76 aircraft over the Gulf of Riga. The aircraft’s loss has been yet been attributed to any individual nation or organisation, but it is thought that NATO actions may have caused the crash and the subsequent deaths of 254 brave Russian soldiers and airmen.
As a result of this, the Western Military District has been ordered to hold a sudden ‘snap’ exercise to demonstrate its military readiness to repel aggression from the West. The exercise will involve over 100,000 troops and is scheduled to begin in less than three days’ time. In the West, NATO officials have scheduled numerous complaints about the suddenness of the planned operation, even though it will take place on Russian soil.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
NATO could back down in war, leaked communique reveals
Le Monde, February 16
A shocking communique revealed that NATO commanders in the Baltic States, where troops from various states including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark and Czechia are stationed, would be ordered to stand down if the Baltic States were invaded by Russian forces.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are categorised as ‘strategically indefensible’ by NATO military commanders. The communique indicates that while NATO forces could resist an attack initially, the forces deployed in the Baltic States are not strong enough to prevent a fiat accompli by Russia, and thus they could be ordered to surrender to prevent their complete destruction in the event of an invasion by Russia.
=================================================================================================================================================================================================
Explosion rocks Riga Harbour in Latvia, details to follow
Reuters, February 17
A major explosion has occurred in the harbour of Riga, Latvia. The extent of the damage has yet to be realised, but it is apparent that there are casualties. Sirens can be heard rushing towards the site of the explosion. Further details will follow. Looks good, ore is is bad to like what is going to come. |
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forcon
Lieutenant Commander
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Post by forcon on Nov 8, 2020 12:54:06 GMT
forcon , Oh dear, this doesn't sound good. Especially given Putin's past record. I could see elements in NATO thinking that the region is indefensible but from the thread title I suspect that Putin is going to get a nasty surprise. Plus it raises the question of what happens to the Kalinngrad enclave in the resulting conflict.
Steve
Thanks. The general view is that the Baltic States are generally indefensible, but this TL will focus largely on a counteroffensive further down the line after a period of peace, rather than a NATO Defensive Effort. So, it will look more like a much more evenly matched 1991 Gulf War as opposed to a defensive effort. |
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forcon
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 988
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Post by forcon on Nov 8, 2020 12:54:33 GMT
Thanks, Lordroel. More to come.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Nov 8, 2020 13:53:55 GMT
Lithuania has the fewest ethnic Russians, Latvia the most & with Estonia in the middle. I know that many of those in Estonia do not consider themselves Russian nor want anything to do with Putin's Russia: I'm not sure about the feelings among those in the other two countries.
Belarus will be the key, for each side, in a fight. Historic Swedish neutrality will be tested to the limit too!
Love the format for the story opening.
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forcon
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 988
Likes: 1,739
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Post by forcon on Nov 9, 2020 14:45:01 GMT
Lithuania has the fewest ethnic Russians, Latvia the most & with Estonia in the middle. I know that many of those in Estonia do not consider themselves Russian nor want anything to do with Putin's Russia: I'm not sure about the feelings among those in the other two countries. Belarus will be the key, for each side, in a fight. Historic Swedish neutrality will be tested to the limit too! Love the format for the story opening. Neutrality is going to be an issue both for Sweden and Finland. As for Belarus, Lukashenko has his own problems. Moscow starting WW3 is not going to particularly appealing to him! Thanks. This format is going to be used for the next few updates, but it's going to change down the line. |
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forcon
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 988
Likes: 1,739
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Post by forcon on Nov 9, 2020 14:49:41 GMT
Part II.
PUTIN STRIKES!
The Daily Express, February 18
In a shocking turn of events, Russian forces have attacked three NATO allies, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. While the Ministry of Defence has yet to give a statement, and the situation is clearly confused, it is undeniable that Russian forces have crossed the border with Estonia in the region of Lake Peipus, and with Latvia in the Rezekne area.
There are also reports of landings by Russian paratroopers and marines elsewhere in the Baltic Region. There is no word on the situation of the 700-strong British garrison stationed in Estonia.
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President spotted leaving White House flanked by armed guards; further details to come
NBC News, February 18
In the wake of the outbreak of fighting in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the President has been spotted evacuating the White House, flanked by Secret Service agents. While his destination has not been confirmed, a white House spokesperson stated that the President will be taken a ‘secure location’ to coordinate with Pentagon officials.
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Russian forces invade Baltics; NATO poised to give statement
CNN, February 18
War has broken out in Eastern Europe as Russian forces invade the Baltic States, all three of which are affirmed NATO allies, with Allied troops stationed on their soil. NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is poised to give a statement.
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Fate of NATO soldiers unknown as explosions rock Riga, Tallinn
Reuters, February 18
The fate of the NATO garrisons stationed in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, all of which are currently under what appears to be a coordinated combined-arms invasion by Russia, is unknown. The three battlegroups, part of the Alliance’s Enhanced Forward Presence, are stationed in the three Baltic countries for deterrence, and although they are all capable combat units, it is certain that they are outnumbered and surrounded on all sides due to the Geography of the Baltic region.
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Germany apparently orders troops to stand down; Italy may have done the same
The Guardian, February 18
A source at the NATO military headquarters known as Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, or SHAPE, has revealed that orders were issued from Berlin to German troops in Latvia to stand down. It appears that the Italian and Slovak governments have issued similar directives.
While a television and internet blackout seemingly imposed across the entire Baltic region means that information is currently limited, the Guardian is trying to provide you with up-to-date facts in regards to the current situation. Please bear in mind that the situation is changing rapidly, and that out information may not be keeping up with the ongoing events.
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Live; Stoltenberg speech begins; NATO response unconfirmed
BBC News, February 18
“Orders have been issued for NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence units stationed in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to stand down in the face of this attack. This is not, I repeat, not, a surrender of Baltic sovereignty in the face of blatant Russian aggression. A military response to Russia’s actions is on the table, and my military chiefs tell me that the armed forces of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are continuing to resist the attack.
Once again, I must stress that we are not merely surrendering before President Putin’s aggression. We are simply trying to save the lives of the approximately 3,500 NATO troops who are currently cut off within the Baltic States…”
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Tallinn apparently falls; British soldiers videoed being disarmed
Le Monde, February 19
The Estonian capital, Tallinn, has apparently been occupied by Russian troops. Footage released by the Russian Defence Ministry appears to show Russian soldiers raising the Russian flag on the grounds of the official residence of the Estonian Government, Stenbock House, located on the Tompea Hill.
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PM: We are not at war with Russia
BBC News, February 19
The Prime Minister has unequivocally stated that Britain is “Not at war with Russia.” Though the situation in the Baltic Region is confused, it has become apparent that at least some British soldiers were killed in yesterday’s fighting in Estonia. A ceasefire order for NATO forces – excluding the national forces of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – has since been issued by NATO commanders in Belgium. As yet it is unclear whether British troops in Estonia, who are now largely in Russian custody, are being held as Prisoners of War of whether they will be released back to British custody.
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Latvia begs for NATO airstrikes, sources say
Reuters, February 19
Sources from NATO headquarters report that officials and military commanders in Latvia are ‘pleading’ with the West for air support as Russian forces move to threaten Riga. A NATO response has not been confirmed, but it is clear that Allied forces in the Baltic States have been ordered to lay down their arms.
The President stated that he had ordered US Forces in Europe to stand down from commencing further military operations against Russian troops in order to save the lives of NATO soldiers in the Baltic States. The order has been met by American service personnel with a mixture of anger and desperation. Many NATO officers have served alongside Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian troops before, and they are now being forced to watch their allies be overwhelmed by an onslaught of Russian firepower.
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Riga now a warzone; Lithuanian forces isolated by two-pronged Russian drive
The Telegraph, February 20
The Russian offensive into the Baltic States is now entering its third day, and it appears to be a major success. With outside NATO forces having been ordered to stand down and not intervene in the invasion, sources report that a pair of Russian mechanised divisions have entered the Latvian capital, Riga, and that while resistance in the Latvian capital continues, there is little hope of repelling the Russian advance.
An amphibious landing on the coast of Lithuania by Russian marines has simultaneously tied down Lithuanian forces, while an attack launched from the exclave of Kaliningrad has sealed the Suwalki Corridor, a focal point for NATO reinforcements which at this point remain completely theoretical.
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Do not abandon us, pleads Lithuanian President
NBC News, February 20
As Russian warplanes bombed Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, the countries President Gitanas Nauseda has issued a tearful plea to NATO not to ‘abandon us’ to the Russian Army. The video was posted on twitter by President Nauseda, apparently on the run in a vehicle of some sort. At this juncture, experts believe that a NATO intervention is the only thing that could save Lithuania from total defeat…
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President Nauseda orders surrender; military questions legitimacy of orders
Polish Newspaper, February 21
Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda has hosted a televised press conference in which he ordered the surviving elements of Lithuania’s military forces to surrender. The television appearance is a far cry from Nauseda’s plea for Western assistance issued yesterday by a video filmed on a cell phone and posted on Twitter.
This has reportedly led the Lithuanian military to question whether Nauseda has been captured by Russian forces or is being coerced to issue treasonable orders. Regardless of Nauseda’s current situation, it appears that all hope for Lithuania is beginning to fade. With Latvia now almost completely overrun, Lithuania remains the only Baltic nation with any significant military units still operating, although even that may not last long.
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Lithuania’s last-ditch defences collapse
Reuters, February 22
Last-ditch efforts at launching a counterattack by the Lithuanian Land Forces’ Iron Wolf mechanised infantry brigade occurred early this morning. Unfortunately, the counterattack was a disaster by all accounts. The brigade, the sole surviving formation of the Lithuanian military until now, was reportedly destroyed in detail by a combination of Russian tanks, artillery and airpower. With little now in their way, Russian forces are moving to encircle Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania.
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Vilnius now an ‘open city’
BBC News, February 23
Five days after Russia launched a massive attack on Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the mayor of Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, has reportedly declared the capital an ‘open city’ in order to avoid bloodshed and urban fighting. The city was the last stronghold of resistance against the invasion.
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Thousands of Allied troops in Russian custody
Le Monde, February 24
After NATO ordered its EFP battlegroups to stand down, confusion was rife as to whether or not this meant surrendering. Eventually, several thousand allied troops laid down their arms and were taken into Russian custody. While they are reportedly being treated reasonably, there is no word on whether or not the POWs will soon be released.
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NATO soldiers to be released, says press release
The New York Times, February 27
A press release issued from NATO headquarters in Belgium indicates that the approximately 3,200 NATO soldiers being held in custody by the Russian Armed Forces will be released shortly. The announcement comes three days after the cessation of major combat operations in the Baltic States in a lighting war that left all three nations under Russian control.
Whether or not NATO or the United States independently will respond with force remains to be seen, but Pentagon officials are pushing the President for a military response, with the alternative being the collapse of NATO, the cornerstone of Euro-American security since the end of the Second World War.
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NATO Delegates meet to discuss response to Russian invasion
The Washington Post, February 30
A formal meeting of NATO’s North Atlantic Council has been scheduled to take place later today in order to debate launching a military operation to liberate the Baltic States from Russian occupation. The meeting will occur…[Subscribe for more]
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 9, 2020 15:06:10 GMT
Nasty. I can understand the feeling of US and other troops being ordered to stand down in the face of such an invasion. It also makes it more difficult to get together a coalition and the political will to liberate the three countries by military means. Which is obviously the only way your likely to get Putin out. However from the title that's what will be coming. Suspect the Balts will be treated pretty badly during the occupation however. 
From the comment about " Lukashenko has his own problems" is this meant to be a Dec 2020 onward scenario?
Steve
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James G
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Post by James G on Nov 9, 2020 18:27:36 GMT
I was rather surprised that the NATO forces gave in without a fight at first glance. But I understand why.
They area a tripwire, a deterrent... one which has just failed. In their garrisons, they will be in no shape to fight. They will be waiting on political guidance. Add in Russian disinformation and it would probably work too!
Returning them home would be a very smart move from Moscow. There are many in the West too fearful of nuclear war over 'only the Baltics' and that will be a good trick to aid that thinking.
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forcon
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Post by forcon on Nov 9, 2020 20:49:01 GMT
Nasty. I can understand the feeling of US and other troops being ordered to stand down in the face of such an invasion. It also makes it more difficult to get together a coalition and the political will to liberate the three countries by military means. Which is obviously the only way your likely to get Putin out. However from the title that's what will be coming. Suspect the Balts will be treated pretty badly during the occupation however.
From the comment about " Lukashenko has his own problems" is this meant to be a Dec 2020 onward scenario?
Steve
There will be war crimes in the Baltics, undeniably. But Moscow is pushing to curry favour with Western public opinion here. They'll be trying to avoid any atrocities, at least public ones. It's obviously contrary to invade three sovreign states and and then curry favour with Western peoples, but I think given the (unmentioned, I know) situation within Russia politically, it makes more sense. I've deliberately left the year blank, simply because of how chaotic the real world feels right now. I'd say the story begins in either December 2021, or December 2022, but you are welcome to use your imagination a bit there. It's meant to be a semi-realistic future history, so I'm leaving details like the exact year blank. I was rather surprised that the NATO forces gave in without a fight at first glance. But I understand why. They area a tripwire, a deterrent... one which has just failed. In their garrisons, they will be in no shape to fight. They will be waiting on political guidance. Add in Russian disinformation and it would probably work too! Returning them home would be a very smart move from Moscow. There are many in the West too fearful of nuclear war over 'only the Baltics' and that will be a good trick to aid that thinking. My thinking is that those troops in the Baltics probably aren't under the same kind of readiness conditions as those in Germany in the 80s. Despite their presence in the Baltics, we all know that NATO hasn't planned this out in the way it was done back in the Cold War, and the risk is, obviously, substantially mitigated. Nobody in the West really wants this war. Most of NATO is willing to fight for the Baltics, but there is no appetite to sacrifice all those troops in the Baltics just to say we fought the good fight, when there wouldn't even be a chance for reinforcements to arrive before the tripwire units are overrun. Russian disinformation is present amongst the headlines. I had RIA Novosti and Russia Today in there! |
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forcon
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Post by forcon on Nov 9, 2020 20:50:33 GMT
Readers, I do realise that this news headline format means that the realities of the scenario are not fully apparent; here, we are seeing the view that most civilians are seeing. What's going on in Moscow or DC behind closed doors isn't available for us to see.
When the war starts (as in, NATO operations to liberate the Baltic States) the format will likely change to encompass the goings on that are not currently in the public domain.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 10, 2020 10:29:55 GMT
Readers, I do realise that this news headline format means that the realities of the scenario are not fully apparent; here, we are seeing the view that most civilians are seeing. What's going on in Moscow or DC behind closed doors isn't available for us to see. When the war starts (as in, NATO operations to liberate the Baltic States) the format will likely change to encompass the goings on that are not currently in the public domain.
I noticed you had a number of dubious sources - not just talking about the Torygraph here  - and that works fine. It gives some idea of the confusion ordinary people might have although of course most of us here are more knowledgeable/cynical and so take anything from certain foreign sources with a large pinch of salt.
I only asked about the date because the reference to Belarus which made it sound very current. Of course that poor country could well see the ongoing crisis lasting for another year or two if their really unfortunate.  |
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forcon
Lieutenant Commander
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Post by forcon on Nov 10, 2020 16:01:44 GMT
Readers, I do realise that this news headline format means that the realities of the scenario are not fully apparent; here, we are seeing the view that most civilians are seeing. What's going on in Moscow or DC behind closed doors isn't available for us to see. When the war starts (as in, NATO operations to liberate the Baltic States) the format will likely change to encompass the goings on that are not currently in the public domain.
I noticed you had a number of dubious sources - not just talking about the Torygraph here - and that works fine. It gives some idea of the confusion ordinary people might have although of course most of us here are more knowledgeable/cynical and so take anything from certain foreign sources with a large pinch of salt.
I only asked about the date because the reference to Belarus which made it sound very current. Of course that poor country could well see the ongoing crisis lasting for another year or two if their really unfortunate. The year is 2021-2022 in my mind, but that's flexible, open to interpretation. |
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forcon
Lieutenant Commander
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Post by forcon on Nov 10, 2020 16:04:33 GMT
Part III.
US, Britain, France table United Nations Security Council vote on Baltic invasion
FOX News, March 1
In the wake of the presidentially-mandated stand-down of US forces in the Baltic States in the face of blatant Russian aggression, the US has tabled a vote in the UN Security Council to condemn Russia and call for military action to eject Russian forces from the Baltic States by force. Although the White House has yet to confirm, it is theorised that the Administration was waiting for the 456 American service personnel being held in Russian custody to be released before committing to any form of action, in order to prevent their use as hostages.
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NATO leaders resign; Stoltenberg & top general out
The Daily Telegraph, March 2
NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg today announced that he would be resigning amidst the Alliance’s crushing defeat by Russian forces in the Baltic States. Senior members of the alliance’ military leadership have followed suit in the wake of the invasion, leaving NATO lacking military and political figureheads in this time of crisis.
Despite what is clearly a major crisis…[Subscribe for full article]
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Russia vetoes UNSC Vote
AP News, March 3
Predictably, Russia vetoed an American-led effort to condemn its invasion of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The People’s Republic of China abstained from the vote, while the US, Britain, and France all opted to condemn what French President Emmanuel Macron referred to as ‘imperialism of a bygone era’ on Moscow’s part.
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Baltic States will be freed, says President Biden
NBC News, March 4
The President stated this morning that the Baltic States will be freed ‘by any means at our disposal’, following the defeat of the UNSC effort to condemn Moscow’s actions. The failure of the vote and the ultimate fact that Russia retains a seat on the all-powerful Security Council means that any military action taken to liberate the Baltic States will likely have to play out without a UN resolution, despite Russia’s blatantly aggressive actions.
While discussions have been raised about the prospect of removing Russia from the Security Council, State Department sources have told NBC that there is no legitimate way to carry out such an act.
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Military response ‘on the table’, says Gen. Milley
BBC News, March 5
A military response to Russia’s occupation of the Baltic States is firmly ‘on the table’, said General Mark A. Milley, the senior US Military general, in a press conference held today at the Pentagon.
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Erdogan – Turkey will play no part in NATO operations
The Washington Post, March 7
President Erdogan stated unequivocally that Turkey will not participate in any NATO military operations against Russia should a second round of fighting break out over the now infamous Baltic region of Europe. This announcement follows a series of disputes between Turkey and other NATO powers, including the United States. Whether Turkish military facilities, including the NATO airbase at Incirlik which is a focal point for Allied airstrikes against Daesh in Syria and Iraq, will be open for NATO use in any future conflict remains to be disclosed, but it is expected that the State Department will put a great deal of effort into currying favour with President Erdogan in order to allow uncontested access to the Black Sea by NATO warships.
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Possible War Crimes in Estonia revealed by satellite imagery
Le Monde, March 12
A vote on possible military action in defence of the Baltic States by NATO’s North Atlantic Council is looming. Ahead of the vote, the US National Reconnaissance Office, or NRO, published images showing what appears to be a mass grave located just outside of Tallinn, Estonia. Although the nature of the grave is not known, US analysts apparently believe that the bodies were those of captured members of Estonia’s militia, the Estonian Defence League. Moscow claims that the bodies were of soldiers killed in the fighting and were being buried to prevent the spread of disease.
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Resistance brewing in occupied Baltic States
The Telegraph, March 15
A Russian check point in Tallinn was reportedly attacked yesterday by a car bomb, which killed three Russian infantrymen. Two days prior to that, a sniper attack in Lithuania’s occupied port city of Klaipeda killed six soldiers on patrol. It appears that a resistance movement within the Baltic region is beginning to emerge…[Subscribe for the full article]
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North Atlantic Council orders NATO to mobilise
The Guardian, March 18
Early this morning, NATO’s North Atlantic Council, the alliance’s political decision-making body, ordered NATO forces to mobilise. The vote comes a month after Russian forces initiated an invasion of the Baltic States, all three of which are NATO members. While there is much criticism that the Alliance has taken so long to begin ordering military moves, NATO’s Response Force and its recently-formed Very High Readiness Joint Task Force have been on the ground in Poland since the beginning of the crisis, and it was these multinational NATO commanders that were responsible for overseeing the safe repatriation of NATO personnel captured during the invasion.
With firm mobilisation orders having now been issued, it appears that NATO is headed towards a military operation to reclaim the Baltic States from Russia. With much planning and mobilisation to be done, actual military operations will not be carried out for several weeks if not months.
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London, Berlin anti-war demonstrations are ‘largest ever’
The Daily Mail, March 21
A series of anti-war protests began yesterday in response to NATO’s military mobilisation. While the largest protests have so far occurred in London and Berlin, there are reports of gatherings in Paris, Warsaw, New York and Philadelphia. The protestors have acted with a surprising degree of violence, burning two police cars this morning.
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Pentagon announces first massive troop deployment to Europe
NBC News, March 24
With hostilities with Russia now looking likely, the Pentagon announced the first of a series of huge troop deployments to Europe, involving the US Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps. The first wave of forces will include some 250,000 personnel, who have already begun moving by air to European airports. Ships of the Naval Ready Reserve Fleet and civilian airliners of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet have been mobilised to move troops and equipment, while the President used executive authority to call up some 100,000 reservists and National Guard personnel. Further call-ups are expected.
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US appoints new NATO commander
NBC News, March 27
With the resignation of NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, otherwise referred to as SACEUR, a new general has been appointed to the position. General Austin S. Miller, formerly a member of the elite Delta Force special operations unit and until recently commander of US forces in Afghanistan, will become the new SACEUR. Given the unfolding crisis in Eastern Europe, it is likely that Miller will be in command of Allied military operations in the near future, should hostilities break out.
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Turkey reaffirms ‘armed neutrality’ status
Reuters, March 27
Turkish President Erdogan publicly reaffirmed his commitment to staying out of a potential showdown with Russia to liberate the occupied Baltic States. Turkey’s NATO representative failed to attend the North Atlantic Council’s vote that occurred last week to authorise a NATO military mobilisation in response to the Russian assault.
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US carrier arrives in Eastern Mediterranean; fears of two-front war
War on the Rocks, March 30
The arrival of the USS George H.W. Bush and her air wing, as well as a fleet of support ships, cruisers, destroyers, and submarines, in the Eastern Mediterranean has sparked fears of a two-front war breaking out if NATO does move to liberate the Baltic States by force. US troops are already pouring into Europe in numbers not seen since 1945. The deployment of an aircraft carrier off of the coast of Turkey has led many analysts to speculate that NATO forces will attack Russia from the south in the event of war breaking out, in order to draw Russian forces away from the Baltic region.
However, after Turkey’s declaration of neutrality in any future hostilities, others have speculated that the aircraft carrier is there to keep an ‘eye on’ the former NATO ally should hostilities occur. Turkey has in recent years begun to procure weaponry from Russia, including S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.
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Brit paras arrive in Poland
The Sun, March 31
With the Prime Minister having committed Britain to military operations in the event that Russia refuses to withdraw from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania peacefully, the first troops from the UK have arrived in Poland. Members of 2nd Battalion, The Parachute Regiment today disembarked from RAF transport planes at Warsaw International Airport.
The soldiers appeared armed and ready for a fight.
Sergeant Graham Wilkins told the Sun, “I hope it doesn’t come to it, but we’re ready. My lads are ready. We didn’t start this thing, but we’ll finish it if we have to.”
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Russia warns of ‘dire consequences’ of war
CNN, April 3
President Putin, speaking from the Kremlin, today publicly warned of the ‘dire consequences’ of war breaking out in the Baltic States once again. While Russia’s occupation has by all accounts been brutal, it would seem that the Russian President has further options in the event of war. NATO, however, appears not to be deterred, as troop movements into Eastern Europe continue unabated.
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Russia forming militias in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
The Times, April 7
Russia is apparently forming militia organisations in the occupied Baltic territories, according to Ministry of Defence sources. The militia units, known as ‘Security Battalions’, are formed from ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltic States. These actions come in the wake of two attacks which occurred in Latvia in which the formerly-NATO run airbase at Lielvarde came under attack by mortars fired by unknown assailants, and a fuel depot was bombed, killing fifteen Russian troops.
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Anti-war protests continue in European cities
CNN, April 12
In expectation of hostilities breaking out with Russia, anti-war protests have again broken out in numerous European cities, apparently coordinated despite the lack of forewarning.
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You’re nicked! Corbyn arrested at anti-war rally
The Sun, April 17
Former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn was arrested today while protesting NATO’s military build-up in Poland ahead of an expected military operation to liberate the Baltic States. While the politician did not resist, police had earlier been ordered to clear Trafalgar Square, where the rally was taking place.
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Germany commits division to build-up; largest overseas deployment since WW2
War on the rocks, April 20
Berlin today reaffirmed its commitment to stand with NATO in the constantly-escalating crisis over the Russian occupation of the Baltic States. Today, the German Army’s Chief of Staff announced that the 1st Panzer Division will deploy into Poland in preparation for potential NATO operations against Russia. It has also been rumoured that Dutch troops will operate under the command of the division to bring it up to strength in wartime.
The deployment is the largest concentration of German military power sent overseas since the Second World War. With several hundred tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery pieces, the division is an impressive force. Soldiers have been spotted loading their tanks onto flatbed railway cars throughout the day.
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Germans lead NATO invasion forces
RIA Novosti, April 21
If NATO forces do move to invade the Baltic States, which were taken under Russian protection as part of an emergency operation to ensure the safety of ethnic Russian minorities in all three countries, the German Army will lead the invasion, RIA Novosti has learned. As in the last war, large numbers of German soldiers have been spotted swarming over the Polish countryside in preparation for attacks against Russia and Russian peoples.
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- and that works fine. It gives some idea of the confusion ordinary people might have although of course most of us here are more knowledgeable/cynical and so take anything from certain foreign sources with a large pinch of salt. 