Divided America

[american2006]

Based in part off of this thread: www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/two-nations-divisible.496177/

So, I was wondering, in the presented scenario of the US divided by state on party lines (basically 2020 election except Georgia moved to Republicans), what would the national dynamic be. And although I said Georgia would be the only moved state, I think Midwest and Arizona are negoitable.

So, how would the independent countries look? how would they interact with each other? How would the politics look assuming the split occurs tomorrow? How would the nations develop?

[stevep]

   american2006 ,

   I think as the thread on AH says there are problems with the Democratic America being split into 2-3 parts. Similarly although less dramatically the Republican hold on Alaska is going to be difficult to maintain given they have no Pacific coastline.  Also a lot of lines of communication are going to be disrupted and who's going to have control of national assets?  Ditto with things like the national debt?  Even if a free trade deal between the two states is agreed there's going to be a hell of a lot of disruption.

  Possibly the easiest way might be to swap Georgia and Virginia for Indiana and Ohio which moves 29 electoral votes [and hence similar levels of population], each way but gives more coherent borders for both states.  However that would leave a lot of disgruntled votes, as would be the case in many other regions.  Possibly some agreed method for assisted migration for those who would rather move to live under their president/party rather than stay where they are and end up is a nation they disagree with.

  Steve

[american2006]

Dec 17, 2020 12:26:00 GMT stevep said:

   american2006 ,

   I think as the thread on AH says there are problems with the Democratic America being split into 2-3 parts. Similarly although less dramatically the Republican hold on Alaska is going to be difficult to maintain given they have no Pacific coastline.  Also a lot of lines of communication are going to be disrupted and who's going to have control of national assets?  Ditto with things like the national debt?  Even if a free trade deal between the two states is agreed there's going to be a hell of a lot of disruption.

  Possibly the easiest way might be to swap Georgia and Virginia for Indiana and Ohio which moves 29 electoral votes [and hence similar levels of population], each way but gives more coherent borders for both states.  However that would leave a lot of disgruntled votes, as would be the case in many other regions.  Possibly some agreed method for assisted migration for those who would rather move to live under their president/party rather than stay where they are and end up is a nation they disagree with.

  Steve

This is all true. Alaska probably would go with the Pacific states. Would the blue America stay together with the split of it. I’m not sure about the Ohio and that, but I’m pretty sure Georgia would just join red America no trade because it literally is surrounded by them.

[stevep]

Dec 17, 2020 13:20:12 GMT american2006 said:

Dec 17, 2020 12:26:00 GMT stevep said:

   american2006 ,

   I think as the thread on AH says there are problems with the Democratic America being split into 2-3 parts. Similarly although less dramatically the Republican hold on Alaska is going to be difficult to maintain given they have no Pacific coastline.  Also a lot of lines of communication are going to be disrupted and who's going to have control of national assets?  Ditto with things like the national debt?  Even if a free trade deal between the two states is agreed there's going to be a hell of a lot of disruption.

  Possibly the easiest way might be to swap Georgia and Virginia for Indiana and Ohio which moves 29 electoral votes [and hence similar levels of population], each way but gives more coherent borders for both states.  However that would leave a lot of disgruntled votes, as would be the case in many other regions.  Possibly some agreed method for assisted migration for those who would rather move to live under their president/party rather than stay where they are and end up is a nation they disagree with.

  Steve

This is all true. Alaska probably would go with the Pacific states. Would the blue America stay together with the split of it. I’m not sure about the Ohio and that, but I’m pretty sure Georgia would just join red America no trade because it literally is surrounded by them.

  The big case for transferring Georgia is both its location, being very isolated, other than by sea of course and also that its a very close call.  Virginia, Ohio and Indiana would make geographical sense to move but have clearer majorities for their current red/blue locations so it would be more controversial in those states.

  Of course if Alaska doesn't want to join the Democratic state then a 3rd option might be to contact Ottawa for some relationship with Canada.    Mind your would that deter Moscow from trying to recliam its lost possession?

  Whether and how long the east and west parts of the blue state stayed together would be difficult but geographical distances are likely to cause them to drift apart over time.  Unless the degree of the political gulf between red and blue states fade over time so that a reunification occurs.

[american2006]

Dec 17, 2020 16:00:42 GMT stevep said:

Dec 17, 2020 13:20:12 GMT american2006 said:

This is all true. Alaska probably would go with the Pacific states. Would the blue America stay together with the split of it. I’m not sure about the Ohio and that, but I’m pretty sure Georgia would just join red America no trade because it literally is surrounded by them.

  The big case for transferring Georgia is both its location, being very isolated, other than by sea of course and also that its a very close call.  Virginia, Ohio and Indiana would make geographical sense to move but have clearer majorities for their current red/blue locations so it would be more controversial in those states.

  Of course if Alaska doesn't want to join the Democratic state then a 3rd option might be to contact Ottawa for some relationship with Canada.    Mind your would that deter Moscow from trying to recliam its lost possession?

  Whether and how long the east and west parts of the blue state stayed together would be difficult but geographical distances are likely to cause them to drift apart over time.  Unless the degree of the political gulf between red and blue states fade over time so that a reunification occurs.

So, while reading on UV Sabato Crystal Ball’s website, several state went more Republican this election then last, among these where Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which Biden carried. This make me think that there may be a few disputes with the Rust Belt and Sun Belt.

On the subject of Alaska, I’m not sure if they’d join Canada in more then an alliance. I think it’s safe to say Canada is more liberal then the US at large, and Alaska may just be an ally of Canada.

I think that with the East-West blue split, assuming this division happened tomorrow the West would probably leave around 2030 as they are getting progressively more liberal and the East progressively more conservative. Per reunification, once split most countries don’t reunite. Take Rome for an example, or Britain. Then again, Germany is a rather notable exception. I doubt though that there’s be a reunification.

[american2006]

According to UVA, this is how the states voted compared to the country at large. This is the the national popular vote % minus % each candidate won in each state: www.yapms.com/app/?m=5rsl

[lordroel]

Dec 17, 2020 1:07:27 GMT american2006 said:

Based in part off of this thread: www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/two-nations-divisible.496177/

So, I was wondering, in the presented scenario of the US divided by state on party lines (basically 2020 election except Georgia moved to Republicans), what would the national dynamic be. And although I said Georgia would be the only moved state, I think Midwest and Arizona are negoitable.

So, how would the independent countries look? how would they interact with each other? How would the politics look assuming the split occurs tomorrow? How would the nations develop?

Some new countries like Texas, Florida and California have the economy already of a independent countries, but not all states will be that successful i guess.

[stevep]

Dec 17, 2020 16:09:29 GMT american2006 said:

Dec 17, 2020 16:00:42 GMT stevep said:

  The big case for transferring Georgia is both its location, being very isolated, other than by sea of course and also that its a very close call.  Virginia, Ohio and Indiana would make geographical sense to move but have clearer majorities for their current red/blue locations so it would be more controversial in those states.

  Of course if Alaska doesn't want to join the Democratic state then a 3rd option might be to contact Ottawa for some relationship with Canada.    Mind your would that deter Moscow from trying to recliam its lost possession?

  Whether and how long the east and west parts of the blue state stayed together would be difficult but geographical distances are likely to cause them to drift apart over time.  Unless the degree of the political gulf between red and blue states fade over time so that a reunification occurs.

So, while reading on UV Sabato Crystal Ball’s website, several state went more Republican this election then last, among these where Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which Biden carried. This make me think that there may be a few disputes with the Rust Belt and Sun Belt.

On the subject of Alaska, I’m not sure if they’d join Canada in more then an alliance. I think it’s safe to say Canada is more liberal then the US at large, and Alaska may just be an ally of Canada.

I think that with the East-West blue split, assuming this division happened tomorrow the West would probably leave around 2030 as they are getting progressively more liberal and the East progressively more conservative. Per reunification, once split most countries don’t reunite. Take Rome for an example, or Britain. Then again, Germany is a rather notable exception. I doubt though that there’s be a reunification.

  Much of Canada is more liberal than the US but not all of it.  Some parts such as Alberta are more in line with the current Republicans.  Plus, apart from it being something of a joke Alaska would be a more natural geographic fit with Canada and would be less dwarved than it would be with either US rump.

  To reunify, unless you assume someone goes on a conquest spree, which I would definitely want to avoid as both are major nuclear powers, requires a will to do so.  Force can be a factor, as the USCW showed but it all depends on whether one side is determined to avoid reunification at all costs.  [Since it needs two to agree but only one to fail.]

[american2006]

Dec 17, 2020 16:25:42 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 17, 2020 1:07:27 GMT american2006 said:

Based in part off of this thread: www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/two-nations-divisible.496177/

So, I was wondering, in the presented scenario of the US divided by state on party lines (basically 2020 election except Georgia moved to Republicans), what would the national dynamic be. And although I said Georgia would be the only moved state, I think Midwest and Arizona are negoitable.

So, how would the independent countries look? how would they interact with each other? How would the politics look assuming the split occurs tomorrow? How would the nations develop?

Some new countries like Texas, Florida and California have the economy already of a independent countries, but not all states will be that successful i guess.

Just to clarify Texas and Florida are part of the same country with much of red America.

[lordroel]

Dec 17, 2020 18:15:42 GMT american2006 said:

Dec 17, 2020 16:25:42 GMT lordroel said:

Some new countries like Texas, Florida and California have the economy already of a independent countries, but not all states will be that successful i guess.

Just to clarify Texas and Florida are part of the same country with much of red America.

A, thanks for the explanation american2006.