gillan1220
Fleet admiral
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 12, 2021 9:36:19 GMT
When will America get its revenge on China? That's looking increasingly unlikely! Unless something triggers a Pearl Harbor type of event. Honestly, losing three USN carriers to hypersonic carrier killers would anger the American public. Instead, this resembles the USS Panay incident but in the 21st Century.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Jan 12, 2021 18:38:15 GMT
That's looking increasingly unlikely! Unless something triggers a Pearl Harbor type of event. Honestly, losing three USN carriers to hypersonic carrier killers would anger the American public. Instead, this resembles the USS Panay incident but in the 21st Century. It was two USN carriers struck and one Chinese one hit in return. Oh, it has angered the American public. Many wanted immediate revenge and are furious their president 'did nothing'... but he bombed and Tomahawked mainland China plus shot up their own navy. There is a presidential candidate running for the 2028 race calling for a strike back against China.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Jan 12, 2021 18:38:56 GMT
8 – Born to run
President Walsh confirmed the worst-kept secret in Washington during July 2027. He wouldn’t be running once more for the Democratic nomination. Walsh intended to serve out his term, until the following January, and then retire from active politics. Everyone knew this already. When he’d been blackmailed by the party leadership in the aftermath of the Taiwan Conflict into giving up any dreams of a second term, that news had leaked within minutes of the meeting. Between then and his announcement, the questions posed by journalists about that had been ones he and his spokespeople had refused to answer. Now it was all out in the open. The race to succeed him, one that had started a long time ago, was officially open for fellow Democrats. The Republicans were already out ahead with their own candidates making waves: their competitors were playing catch-up.
There was a thirteen month period between that announcement and the Democratic Convention in 2028. During that time, a total of twenty-six ‘major’ candidates would make an effort to gain the nomination. These were those who held or had previously held political office, or had enough of a public profile for the media to declare them to be major candidates: there were many more no-hopers also officially in the race. The twenty-six would enter at various periods with some lasting some time and others quickly dropping out… without seemingly anyone noticing. Attention was on four top-tier candidates though. Angela Duke, the Mayor of New York City, was an early frontrunner. An African-American candidate from the nation’s biggest city, Duke attracted plentiful coverage and a good following, much of that beyond the Big Apple too. Then there was New Jersey’s junior Senator Oliver Kirk. He was a big deal in the party with plenty of establishment favouring. He contrasted sharply with Duke’s activist populism and was very much so a neo-Liberal. The Hollywood movie star Riley Smith toyed with a run to the White House. He was a pretty boy money-machine for the movie studios yet with a career interspaced with his own political activism. Never a registered Democrat, he had spoken out in support of party candidates throughout his career and drew the media towards him. However, Riley Smith was his stage name: his birth name was John Borewood. He’d have to run on that name legally, limiting recognition. In the late summer of ’27, he had a sudden breakup with his girlfriend with the media all over it. The negative press which this relationship split attracted ended his campaign and he returned to acting.
Then there was Maria Arreola Rodriguez.
MAR was ‘born to run’. Her wife made this remark in a supposedly private conversation with a thought-to-be friend who released it to the media as park of a betrayal and publicity stunt. It was true though. For a very long time, MAR had been preparing for this. She wanted to be president and there were a great number of people who would stand behind her. Detractors said that over the years – she’d been in the public eye for almost ten years –, the California congresswoman had lost her touch. She no longer had any ‘street cred’. She was too in love with big tech and Silicon Valley; no longer was she the activist upstart she once had been. As per usual, MAR laughed that off. She announced her candidacy on Twitter, where she was one of the most popular posters, and mocked those who were writing her off before she began her campaign. Wrong she would prove them, she said. All the wrongs in the country would be fixed too.
Following on from the mess which was the Democratic Primaries in 2020, the party had attempted to change the whole process for the election of ’24. That hadn’t been something that had gotten off the drawing board due to internal opposition within the Democratic Party establishment. Walsh had used the traditional system of ‘Iowa first, New Hampshire next & then Super Tuesday’ to his advantage in ’24. He’d established himself as the front-runner by securing victories in what were many Red states. Other candidates had dropped out before hardly any Blue states had voted. That was not how it was to be for the ’28 primaries. Tradition was thrown out of the window. Ten states (plus Democrats Abroad) would vote simultaneously in the first primary contest with another four of those a month / six weeks apart through the beginning of ’28. In that first batch of contests, seven Blue states would be contested along with two (of the only four) Purple states. There would be no complicated delegate system – and no superdelegates at the convention too – but instead every vote from every voter would count for one. This was a popular vote contest.
MAR was extremely confident she could win. Duke and Kirk wouldn’t stand a chance.
Governor Allen’s running made for the Republican campaign which they lost in 2024 had been Sarah Taylor. Still a serving senator in Missouri, Taylor had been considered a leading contender for the ’28 election once that previous contest was over with. She’d done very well alongside Allen and had long been talked of as the ideal candidate to run at the top of the Republican ticket to go up against Walsh or, after it became clear he wouldn’t run, whomever the Democrats picked. Yet, Taylor would never enter the Republican’s presidential race which too started during the latter half of ’27. Back in her home state, one of the Reddest in the nation, a financial scandal erupted around her. It was to do with her career in banking before she entered frontline politics. As the economy crashed, the details came out of extensive financial impropriety. Taylor’s opinion poll rating sunk dramatically. She and her supporters claimed it was a Democratic stitch-up, especially since the story dominated the left-wing media, but it was clear she was guilty. The revelations kept on coming. Taylor herself worried about her own Senate seat. She was up for re-election the next November – aiming to fight that while also going after the White House – and there were already fellow Republicans in Missouri who were opponents of hers who could primary her. Missourians weren’t impressed with what she was accused of and nor were Republican voters nationwide when surveyed. In the end Taylor didn’t enter the national race. It was for the best. There was more to come out that was being held back for the following October by certain Democrat-aligned figures and that all would have done the gravest of damage.
Daniel Canabrini was another potential candidate who never made it out of the race’s starting blocks. He was a decorated war veteran and vocal campaigner who also had a big television career. The Tennessee native had previously declined approaches from the Republicans to run for office for them yet was a big supporter who helped with the party’s base. Popular media figures nationwide generally gravitated towards the Democrats but Canabrini was one of the exceptions. He began exploring a national run during the summer of 2027 though when persuaded he might have had the magic. Initial toe-tipping looked good for him, yet once he moved to really get started, Canabrini was turned off. The hostility he found he was subject to was frightening. A tough guy he was yet the open death threats – by people who could back up their words with bullets – were against not just him but his family too. The political environment out there was too much of a risk for his loved ones. Out of the contest be would bow.
Without Taylor and Canabrini in the race, as things began to really get moving in the chase for the Republican nomination, once 2027 entered its final months, two strong Republican candidates emerged among the pack of more than a dozen who were making the effort. None of those others had the standing which Jerimiah ‘Jerry’ Stokes and Edward Roberts did. The two senators, the former from South Carolina & Texas being home for the latter, were fast out ahead of all the others trying to play catch up. They represented different ideas of what their party was all about. Stokes was labelled by critics as an ‘America First’ candidate. He’d openly spoke beforehand of restoring American’s place in the world by getting revenge against China for what had happened earlier in the year in the Western Pacific. Though he didn’t openly say it, everyone knew he meant military action. Then there was his long history of full support for right-wing militias operating across the nation. Stokes had defended them time and time again. South Carolina was spared the violence which other states weren’t and he ruffled too many feathers among figures elsewhere in the nation party by his inflammatory comments backed up by smugness about how things were where he called home. Roberts was one of those who considered his fellow Republican to be a straight up fascist. A product of the Lincoln Project to create a ‘new’ Republican Party, a sensible one which won extensive minority votes, Roberts was still part of a system that used gerrymandering, voter disenfranchisement and every bit of cheating in the book to get where he was. While no angel himself, the African-American candidate gained significant party support once his campaign got going in opposition to Stokes. There were some who said he was born to run too. He attracted many law-and-order supporters who feared what Stokes might do should he make it to the White House. Economic conservatives liked him and so too did big business. There was still racism which Roberts would have to face, a lot of it, and he wasn’t on the best of terms with the party kingmaker-in-chief Senate Majority Leader Green. Such challenges would be met.
Stokes and Roberts were going to fight it out in 2028. The Republicans would follow the traditional primary system which the Democrats had just abandoned. Getting the Democrats out of the White House was wanted by all and they would do whatever that would take.
While the opening moves among the two parties were made for the next year’s election, the American economy continued its downward spiral in late 2027. More people were out of work and there was a growing homelessness issue. MAR spoke of taking foreclosed homes away from the property of the banks – who had extensive property holdings – and giving them back to the people. Called a socialist by Stokes, she corrected him: she was a democratic socialist. Kirk and Roberts both pointed to the struggles those who had a job and a home were facing. Each spoke of what they would do to correct the nation’s economic situation should they win the presidency to help these people first. Roberts faced the ‘Uncle Tom’ taunt when on the early campaign trail. He had been called that name before and responded like a grown up. MAR faced racism, sexism and homophobia. A few commentators thought they were funny and spelt her maternal surname without one of the two letter Rs: areola was supposed to be witty to those who pretended they were making a simple spelling snafu. She turned things around against those against her and declared that all personal attacks made her stronger as well as reminding her supporters of what they were all fighting for.
When Walsh, with Senate support, made the military deployment to the Baltic States and Poland late in 2027, Roberts voted for that move to defend NATO allies like his fellow Republicans did. Kirk also did so, one of the minority of Democrats giving their support to the president’s action. Each man major misgivings about doing so but kept those to themselves. Duke, MAR and Stokes all opposed it. They did so for different reasons and used their primary opponent’s support against them. Voters were split on this issue, not on the usual Red state vs. Blue state divide. After the humiliation inflicted by China earlier in the year, the United States was now facing off against Russia in Eastern Europe. This was an unexpected campaign issue within both the Democrats and the Republicans with candidates forced to take sides.
Extensive personal security surrounded these five principles candidates. There was more given to those outsiders also in still in the race as well. Assassination fears went beyond the candidates to their families and colleagues. Duke and MAR were not in favour of being surrounded by bodyguards but they needed them. They couldn’t campaign without protection from those seeking to do them harm. There were plenty aiming to do that. Despite all that was being tried, after bi-partisan agreement to properly act, domestic political violence continued in America during late 2027 and into the following year.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Jan 13, 2021 19:10:31 GMT
9 – Pay in pain
While it continued, the political violence was slowing down somewhat. There was less intensity in the rate of attacks which gave name to the Years of Lead. A nationwide security effort was underway with a lot of the previous problems which had cropped up to stop that cut through. Politicians and public figures had protection. The Department of Homeland Security was providing agents from the Federal Protective Service (FPS) and the role of the Secret Service (USSS) had been expanded. Add to this the multi-year boom in private security on offer, those in the public eye were much better protected than they had been before. It was taking serious effort now for those who wished to do influential others on the opposite side of the partisan divide harm. Some successful attacks were still made though. Alberto Ramos, a federal judge service on the bench in Alabama, was assassinated while in the midst of a First Amendment case. A murderer got past his security – killing two FPS officers – and butchered Ramos with a knife due to the judge making highly-publicised rulings during a big case about free speech. USSS agents shot and killed a gunman aiming to kill one of California’s two senators but lost one of their own people and that politician’s top aide died in the cross-fire. Then there was a college kid slain by the Black Liberation Army. At school in Virginia, the twenty-year old politics student was targeted for his expression of conservative views on campus… plus the fact that his father was a Republican state assemblyman in that Blue state. The victim in Richmond had no security around him. He was shot to death in public by laughing killers.
Bi-partisan cooperation had been agreed at the Capitol Hill Summit in June 2027 but that was among political figures at the very top. Those below them received the word that there was to be a crackdown on violence in addition to trying to limit the rhetoric which drove all of that. They didn’t always agree that what they said, where it was Them vs. Us, was inflammatory. How to act on many matters was a major point of disagreement. Going after those autonomous zones and the scattered militia was the source of much argument with one side demanding action and the other defending those involved. From above came the pressure downwards to stop looking the other way with state governments and city authorities told to take action. They did what they could with the situation they faced while having to answer to their own voters… in addition to their own prejudices. A few states claimed credit where there was none due. There was boasting that their states hadn’t been affected by the violence like others because they had long been acting responsibly: the Red states of Missouri & South Carolina and the Blue state of Arizona were prime examples.
Politicians might have found the latter half of 2027 and early ’28 less dangerous for them, but the media didn’t. There had been attacks made against journalists, reporters and broadcasters before. The media was soon reporting once more against violence directed against themselves again. News crews out reporting on stories came under gunfire and several journalists faced those seeking to do them harm when they were at home. Their places of work came under assault as well. In the nation’s capital, the head office for the Washington Post was the scene of a bomb on a busy Monday morning. Eight lives were lost. Fox News had offices nationwide and, in what was coordinated attack, gunmen with the BLA attempted to lay siege to a trio of them in three different regions of the country. That news network was the enemy as far as BLA members were concerned and they would pay in pain for all of their hostile coverage against causes which the BLA claimed it stood for. War vets with private security companies stopped the attacks from getting going in New Orleans and Philadelphia – leading to a handful of deaths on each side of the gunfire – but the protection offered in Las Vegas was subject to Clark County restrictions on firearms. The Nevada terror team had automatic weapons whereas those security staff only had a few pistols. Into the Fox News office the gunmen went, shooting dozens of people but failing to get those at the top they were after. Las Vegas PD sent a SWAT team in to end a siege where the terrorists were pinned down. Once the final shots were made, all told there were thirty deaths. Such things like this were unprecedented in America, that was something that was expected to happen overseas. Yet it happened in Nevada’s biggest city.
Primary season began properly in 2028 for the presidential race. No longer would candidates shadow box each other. They went head-to-head seeking votes. The Democrats held their first of five mass primary contests. Ten states – plus Democrats Abroad – voted for their preferred Democratic candidate in January. Maria Arreola Rodriguez won those voters overseas and seven of the domestic primaries. She beat her competitors in Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Pennsylvania was one of those Purple states while the rest were Blue states. She won by big margins out West and also in Pennsylvania. This mattered due to how every vote counted for what it was worth with the Democrats not using the anarchic delegate system with proportional votes. This was a popular vote contest. Kirk lost his home state of New Jersey though took Purple Michigan and also Red Mississippi; Duke had a surprise win in Delaware despite throwing all efforts at Illinois, Pennsylvania & Virginia. The race had always been MAR’s to lose and that was only truer after this first round of voting. She was miles out ahead of the two challengers for the party nomination. Kirk talked about how he’d won over voters in Mississippi – as if that mattered – and was a candidate able to win Michigan in the presidential election. MAR was only a few thousand votes behind him in Michigan though and had a massive lead in Pennsylvania. Whoever took them in November would take the White House.
In Round #2 the next month, the District of Columbia was contested alongside eight Red states and only two Blue states (Maryland and Oregon). MAR won six states plus DC. Turnout was lower than Round #1 due to the high proportion on unfriendly ground being run on but that didn’t hurt MAR’s campaign like it did Kirk’s. He’d argued that he could win in Red states, even down in the South, in both the primaries and the election. He was wrong. Without any more wins, let alone a second place finish, Duke dropped out. The NYC mayor returned home leaving the race to the top two. Georgia and Texas were two Red states among four more, and four Blue states (plus Puerto Rico), in Round #3 of the Democratic primaries. Those states had big populations with substantial numbers of Democratic voters who remained politically active despite all the Republican-directed hostility towards them. The pair of them, like five more of the other states and Puerto Rico, were won by MAR. She brought out large numbers of voters especially in Atlanta, Dallas & Houston. These people knew that their votes in November wouldn’t count but the ones they cast in March would. Kirk took three Red states. His campaign was in zombie mode. It was dead but walking around still. He refused to accept that he was beaten. California, Florida, New York, North Carolina and Ohio – big population states – had yet to vote. Kirk lost Florida & New York to MAR in April. She stormed to victory in both of them as part of a win of ten of the eleven Round #4 contests; Kirk was only victorious in Red West Virginia. One of her Red state victories in April 2028 was that win in Utah. In Salt Lake City, supporters of hers in that urban Blue bastion, celebrated long into the night once the results came in. There were some among them who thought that they could turn Utah Blue in November – impossible – and they also had a lot to drink. They were young and feeling carefree. Gunmen opened fire on them. Members of one of the various right-wing militias active in the West targeted who they saw as enemies deserving of death. College kids, young professionals and out-of-state campaign volunteers for the MAR candidacy were massacred with twenty-one deaths inflicted.
Two nights before that infamous act, President Walsh had spoken to the nation where he had said that the Years of Lead were moving into the past. A return to normalcy was coming. The actions of those killers in Utah – who escaped detection in the face of a massive manhunt to track them down – gave lie to that claim. Kirk considered bowing out after Round #4 but he stayed in. That was arrogance rather than any false dreams. He had lost and there was no path to victory. The most-populous state in the Union, California, was one of the last races. The system was designed to make whoever was in second place stand a chance in fighting for primary voters there with the addition of (Purple) Minnesota and (Red) Ohio also in Round #5. As expected, MAR won her home state as well as taking every single state in the last round including unfriendly ground such as Oklahoma, South Carolina & Wyoming. Beating Kirk by almost eight million votes, MAR had won the Democratic nomination by the end of May.
Roberts and Stokes fought it out for the Republican nomination. The South Carolina senator won the first contest. Stokes was successful in the Iowa Caucus and went into the New Hampshire Primary the apparent favourite. Roberts beat him there though. Iowa and New Hampshire were both Red states yet with many differences between them on the ground among Republicans within them. Those contests in January and February were followed by the South Carolina Primary in early March 2028. A native son with full backing of the state party, that should have been Stokes’ to win. African-American voters in South Carolina voted for Roberts though. Stokes, the white nationalist, was humiliated on home ground. His concession speech was full of claims of fraud on the part of the Roberts’ campaign. That was a load of baloney. Roberts won fair and square. He managed to attract voters who Stokes couldn’t and bring them out to vote for him. The media narrative changed. Roberts was now the favourite to win overall whereas before it had been Stokes. Party figures hesitant to go with the untested freshman senator from Texas swung towards him after South Carolina. Nine Super Tuesday contests took place later the same month with more than half of those in the South. Roberts took Alabama and Georgia with African-American voters coming out for him. He also was victorious in the very Caucasian Oklahoma. That was down to Senate Majority Leader Green. He wanted a Republican in the White House: the Democrats had had it for sixteen of the last twenty years. Green lobbied in his home state for Roberts like he did elsewhere. Stokes would only win the base, Green believed: Roberts was able to gain unaffiliated voters and the rest of the Republican Party would fall in line behind someone who was a winner.
Roberts’ delegate lead over Stokes was increased as the contests went on. Stokes was never too far behind but he couldn’t catch up. When Purple states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania voted, Roberts won in them. The campaign narrative was that he would beat the Democrats in them in November. When it came to North Carolina, once more Purple, Stokes looked initially to have the edge during the primary there, but Roberts came from behind and won there alongside convincing victories in Red states such as Indiana & Texas and Blue New Mexico. Opinion polling nationwide beyond Republicans showed Roberts attracting large numbers of uncommitted voters and even certain Democrats. The latter were turned off by MAR’s socialism and unimpressed by Kirk running as a centralist neo-Liberal for the Democrats. They wanted something different on offer and that was Roberts. Endorsements from fellow senators, House members and governors came for Roberts as the Republican race moved towards its conclusion. Florida and Tennessee were major wins though there was disappointment in the Mid-west, Missouri in particular. Stokes still had a few wins even at the end where his America First message, plus getting revenge against China for the Taiwan Conflict, allowed him scattered victories. Yet, it was all over. Roberts won the final primary contests come June 2028.
The Republican Party had an African-American at the top of their presidential ticket. It was unthinkable, impossible… before it then happened. He was going to go up against the Latina who was MAR in the year’s race for the White House.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Jan 13, 2021 22:12:52 GMT
Campaign 2028 up next.
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
Posts: 7,608
Likes: 8,833
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Post by James G on Jan 14, 2021 19:12:38 GMT
10 – Campaign 2028
During her stunningly successful primary run, Maria Arreola Rodriguez had livestreamed many of her campaign events. Criss-crossing the country extensively to visit every state – plus Washington & Puerto Rico – went against her long expressed environmentalist beliefs. She could reach more people, and directly so without media assistance, through the internet. Travelling to some places was unsafe too: not just for her but all those involved in MAR’s campaign. Her online events became bigger than she had expected. It became the in thing to do, to watch one of her campaign events with friends. Young voters as well as those older spent so much of their life on the internet. At a set time, with a bigger build up to the time and date each go round, MAR had reached more people than she ever could with countless rallies. Complete control over her message was in her hands using the livestream method. Once the presumptive nominee, ahead of the Democratic Convention, MAR increased this method of campaigning. People looked forward to seeing her and hearing what she would have to say during the Facebook & YouTube broadcasts.
Broadcasting from her home in California’s Walnut Creek – in the Bay Area near Oakland and Berkeley – live on Friday night, tens of millions watched her. She was with her wife and their two young children. Sometimes there would be a bit of cooking or dancing at home. The children would run around playing games, grabbing the love of those watching. There would be talk of films, music and pop culture. Surprise guests, either joining in person or via split screen, would show up. MAR gave the watching world a look at her family life each week. She put her politics front and centre but this was the ‘real’ MAR on show. Dismissed as a gimmick by critics at the beginning, the Friday Night With MAR stormed in the ratings. TV schedules were forced to adapt less their show not have anyone watching. MAR made firm promises to those who she wanted to vote for her come November 2028. She wouldn’t sell out her principles when in power. Pre-screened supporters got to ask her questions and she her alongside big draws in terms of actors, singers and like-minded celebrities. Donations could be made during the events and these were usually exceptionally high. MAR’s campaign needed the money. There was no Super PAC support, corporate donations nor $1000 a-plate-dinners. She refused to raise money in that manner. Riley Smith, that movie star who had pondered over a presidential run himself, was one of those surprise guests. Hollywood studios worried over this in a time of belt-tightening due to the increasing behaviour of China where American films – previously big money makers – were locked out of that country. They didn’t like him being so strongly associated with MAR because in Twenties America, many film fans wouldn’t watch those with lead stars whose expressed politics they didn’t like. Regardless, Riley Smith stuck with MAR. The singer Teyo was another visitor to Walnut Creek. Teyo was the biggest of big deals in 2028. His music was critically acclaimed and commercially successful. His politics were much the same as MAR’s and he had no one on his back about putting off fans. He’d said openly, many times, he didn’t want racists and homophobes buying his music. Teyo sang along with those adorable kids.
However, MAR did make physical trips during her campaign for the presidency following the final victory she won over her fellow Democrat, Senator Kirk. She went to the party convention in Newark in August and visited many Blue states, especially the ones out West where she was wildly popular and could get huge crowds to turn out. Not everything could be done from home. The majority of Red states were avoided by her campaign though. The events in Salt Lake City were a concern and so too were direct assassination threats. Party leadership figures urged her to make stops in Georgia and Texas, where she had won all those millions of votes in the primaries, but she didn’t want to put herself, her campaign staff and supporters at risk. She did go to Florida and Wisconsin though. Those Red states had many Democratic voters in urban areas and the political environment was judged less dangerous. Huge crowds came out in Miami and Milwaukee for MAR. Those fears of violence came due to the hatred directed towards MAR and fellow Democrats due to the campaign promises and declared agenda for her run for the presidency. MAR was a democratic socialist with an agenda which would make President Walsh’s (broken) 2024 campaign promises blush. She declared that hers weren’t the politics of envy nor bashing the rich but instead ‘sharing’. All Americans were invited to unite in support of what was ‘fair’. They could all then reap the rewards. Ahead of the convention, MAR faced off against the party leadership when they tried to browbeat her into accepting their preferred vice presidential candidate to run alongside her. Favoured by the Democratic establishment was Patrick O’Shea. He was a senator from Massachusetts and a young member of a political dynasty: the ticket would be balanced by him, they said. MAR gave quite the undiplomatic response to such a preposterous notion. O’Shea was a privileged phony and she told them where to go with that idea. Long favoured personally by the California Congressman was DaJuan Anderson. He was an African-American from the Big Apple who had served until last year as the New York City Public Advocate. Now his state’s attorney general, fighting in Albany for the underprivileged, he was perfect. A natural campaigner whose politics were very similar to hers, plus very popular too, she wanted him. MAR got him too, facing down the party bigwigs. The idea of someone like O’Shea serving alongside her, taking the presidency if something happened to her… that made her stomach turn!
Edward Roberts picked Lee Mitchell as his running mate when the Republicans had their party convention in August. Announced ahead of the Memphis event, Mitchell was the only one of four Caucasian males at the top of the two party’s tickets. Unthinkable, a couple of decades ago, minority candidates now dominated the presidential and vice presidential spots. He was the former governor of North Carolina. A big draw and a popular figure, Mitchell gave the right balance to the ticket which Roberts headed. The two of them intended to campaign nationwide, avoiding only the smallest Blue states. Roberts started early, on the campaign trail once he’d defeated Senator Stokes, and was joined in making visits to attend rallies and give speeches by surrogates and then later Mitchell too. Use was made of livestreaming events and the internet just like the Democratic challenger did so. The Republican campaign was drenched in cash and Roberts had been told he could afford to do a lot.
For Roberts, despite his ethnicity, he ran a very traditional campaign as expected of Republican candidates. He shored up the party base by making sure everyone knew that he was a family man – a nuclear family too – and reached out to the independents who he needed to win. Attention was thrown at the four Purple states: Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The election was to be won in these states, Roberts and his party leadership, all agreed upon. That was why they worked so hard in these places to drown out the Democrats. Still, those other states, Red ones and Blue ones, saw visits made to them and money spent within. Social conservatism and fiscal responsibility were what Roberts ran on. These were his politics and those of his party too. There was no campaign hints or dog whistles that could give rise to false claims that the Republicans sought the White House on the America First platform that many might favour and that Stokes had tried to beat Roberts during the primaries using. Roberts was willing to go and talk to people, even those who were bitterly opposed to his politics. He made a visit to New York and another to Chicago. These were unfriendly cities to a Republican, even one such as Roberts who it was boasted was changing the party to bring it up to date. In the Purple states, polling showed Roberts in the lead throughout the summer of 2028 over MAR. Her socialism, much maligned by the Republican campaign, wasn’t cutting thrown to voters outside the big urban areas. Roberts was confident that he could take all four of them, as well as keeping almost all Red states too. He’d be the president in January ’29 as long as he stayed on message.
Immense financial contributions came to the Republicans during the summer to allow them to run Roberts for the presidency but also fight to keep control of the House and the Senate too. Their presidential nominee benefitted from a lot of these corporate donations yet the majority went elsewhere in the party. Roberts’ campaign finance people argued with the party leadership. They wanted more of that for further well-targeted advertising to reach the voters they needed to. This wasn’t a fight that Roberts could win though. He had to spend less money in certain places, especially on ‘safe’ home ground. Voices of concern made themselves known that not everything being done in Red states was. Roberts listened to them and tried his best. He kept on the race to secure the support of voters and maintained that faith that he would win. Even without those worries, he could foresee nothing going wrong with the strategy being followed. Of more worry was silly talk among figures in deep Red states. Members of several state legislatures – no federal elected officials –, those in Kentucky, Mississippi & Missouri, said stupid things about succession of their states out of the nation should the ‘Marxist’ MAR win the White House. It was damaging to Roberts’ campaign. It drew negative attention and mixed up his messaging of national healing away from the years of violence. Roberts targeted the Democrats’ control of the presidency in the blame game for all of that. He linked MAR to Walsh as best as he could, despite the two of them being in so many ways pretty much polar opposites. Only with him in the White House would there be a real stop to that. He would return the nation to normalcy. Events during the summer campaigning of 2028 gave this message ‘ammunition’. None of what happened, especially in Nebraska, was in any way welcome though.
Secret Service agents stopped a very real, late stage assassination attempt against MAR’s wife. Two gunmen came to California from her native Indiana with the intention of killing her. She was a college professor at Berkeley, where MAR’s father had worked too before his murder in February 2026, and a hate figure among far right militia members. USSS agents killed both gunmen in a shootout. That occurred in July and the next month there was another effort made by similar-minded folk against one of the MAR campaign’s surrogates on the campaign trail. Phil Ehringhaus was oft known by the nickname ‘Mayor Phil’: he had come to prominence in the 2020 presidential race called that when no one could pronounce his last name properly. He’d served as Energy Secretary under the 46th & 47th Presidents afterwards. Heading rallies for MAR, he was criss-crossing the country speaking in favour of her. Officers from the Federal Protective Service couldn’t stop a hand grenade being thrown at him and then detonating before they could get him to safety. His slaying in Lansing, Michigan made headlines nationwide. Those behind his murder hated him for not just his politics but his homosexuality too. Supporters of their cause celebrated the death of Mayor Phil. They hoped to take some of the wind out of MAR’s presidential run.
In New York, a team of private security guards protecting a private citizen were momentarily distracted by a clever ruse. Their client was shot at close range in just the few seconds available, right out on the sidewalk of Wall Street. He was one of those big money men for the Republicans who’d been pumping all that money into Roberts’ race for the White House. Real Marxists, not people such as MAR nor Mayor Phil who were deemed as such by opponents, were behind this killing. They got a ‘capitalist pig’, so their internet boasts said. A large race riot also hit the Big Apple during the summer. NYPD officers shot and killed an unarmed African-American suspect. Mayor Angela Duke, back from her failed presidential run, appealed for calm but couldn’t stop significant unrest in the city. She blamed outsiders who’d come in to cause trouble. There was some merit in that assertion, with far left and far right outsiders making trouble, but it was mainly New Yorkers themselves who burnt down portions of the city, looted stores and killed police officers. Another riot, this time not race related, took place on the streets of the nation’s capital in early September. Like he had done two years beforehand, Walsh bombed Egypt. He had United States military forces attack insurgents in that country, those who were supposed to have all been beaten in 2026. A huge anti-war protest erupted in Washington and, when the violence got out of hand, the authorities moved in. Certain members of the crowd fought back and blood ran in the streets. MAR and Roberts each criticised the violence though while the latter supported the air strikes against declared terrorists in North Africa, the former passionately opposed the ‘killing of more kids’.
Later that month, there was an explosion in Omaha. In Nebraska’s biggest city, on the Missouri River across from Iowa, the Democrats were holding a rally. There was extensive security. Anderson was there, talking to a massive crowd. Nebraska was a Red state but that was a paler Red than elsewhere. It was one of a trio of states – New Hampshire and Washington state (as per a 2023 decision) – which would split their Electoral College votes for November’s election. The Democrats’ vice presidential candidate was pulled away by USSS agents when a truck came seemingly out of nowhere and drove into the crowd. It run over dozens upon dozens of people. Then there was the blast. It was an immense explosion and caught on live television across the nation. The fate of Anderson was unknown in the immediate aftermath. Like the rest of the county, MAR waited with baited breath to be told his fate following this latest, horrific outrage.
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Post by jedicommisar on Jan 14, 2021 22:15:04 GMT
Oh Boy this is going to be good Bloody
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James G
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Post by James G on Jan 15, 2021 19:09:22 GMT
Oh Boy this is going to be good Bloody Hold on tight!
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James G
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Post by James G on Jan 15, 2021 19:10:42 GMT
11 – Black swans
‘RF-187’ was the codename given to a biological agent which the United States believed was a secret Russian germ agent. They had samples of this and they were kept, alongside others, at Fort Detrick in Maryland. RF-187 had been studied extensively so that if it showed up once more, used in a hostile manner, the Americans would know what they were dealing with. In a major security breech, samples of this agent were stolen from Fort Detrick in early September 2028. This incident was classified top secret. An investigation was underway to find out who was responsible with the fears that Moscow had managed to get access to Fort Detrick and steal them back. Such was what President Walsh was first told once the theft was discovered. However, later in the month, he and his top people were given another classified briefing on the matter. It wasn’t any longer thought that the Russians were involved. Someone else swiped those germs. It looked increasingly likely that those responsible were domestic terrorists.
Military investigators, working with members of multiple agencies within the US Intelligence Community, had identified three people in a conspiracy to steal RF-187 samples. They detained them and had enough evidence to convict should the case go to federal court. Yet, the biological samples were still gone. There were leads which were urgently being tracked down as to where possession of the stolen biological agents where and all of those lead to the little-known American Insurgent Army. The AIA had been active for a number of years. Written off as a joke some time ago, this was a right-wing militia group like no other. They stayed off the radar and acted under the disguise of others. Former military members but also retired figures from the Intelligence Community were involved. These people were preparing for the end-of-days and in the meantime wanted to fight the establishment while following a very warped and scary ideology. That gate guard at Fort Detrick, the man who got the germ samples out of there, was a member. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security were all over seemingly everyone he’d ever met. Arrests were made of suspected AIA members and covert searches made on properties belonging to others. The missing RF-187 couldn’t be tracked down though, despite all effort thrown into the hunt.
The Omaha Bombing occurred on September 30th. The explosion targeting the Democrats’ vice presidential candidate and gathered supporters was initially not linked to that theft several weeks beforehand. There was no reason for any connection. However, with a day, FBI investigators tied the AIA to the attack. There were also reports coming out of Nebraska – and over the river in Iowa too where some wounded had been taken to hospitals in that state – that many victims were showing unexplained symptoms concerning eye irritation and stomach sickness. That could have been related to the fuel oil which was part of the explosive device. Walsh and his national security team were briefed that it seemed impossible that such small quantities of the stolen germs could be responsible for all of those suspected cases. RF-187 was a poison used for targeted assassinations. It didn’t seem likely that it would have been used in a bomb. But… Walsh decided that this needed properly checking out. The implications of being wrong, of delaying action and people dying due to inaction, were terrifying. Specialist government and military investigators went to Omaha. The fears would turn out to be unfounded. Those ill weren’t so because of a biological attack. Before that could be confirmed though, the news leaked out of Washington about the theft of RF-187 from Fort Detrick (Russia called the whole thing a Big Lie with Walsh apparently seeking an excuse for war to stay in office), the president’s fears and the on-the-ground investigation. Panic and political drama ensued. In the meantime, the US Government was still looking for those germ samples too.
DaJuan Anderson survived the blast. The truck driven into the crowd exploded as he was being pushed down by Secret Service agents and covered with their bodies. Brave men and women did all that they could to save his. Yet, he was badly injured – and several USSS agents killed – when that huge bomb went off. It was a fuel-air bomb and its effects were devastating. One hundred and eight deaths would occur from the blast with hundreds more wounded. Not since 9/11 more than twenty-seven years beforehand had a terror attack on American soil killed so many. The type of attack made, where a terrorist gave his own life to make it work, was just so un-American that at first it was incomprehensible. It happened though. The AIA had others like him among their ranks: those willing to die like their comrade lost in Omaha did. As to Anderson, he was air-lifted to a rapidly-filling hospital in Omaha. Trauma surgeons stopped the bleeding from multiple shrapnel wounds but the New Yorker was in a coma afterwards. A nation was invited by his mother to pray for him. Walsh, MAR and Roberts all made headlining statements condemning the attack and urging his recovery. He stayed on the Democratic ticket too. If he’d been killed, it would have been a different matter. MAR battled party officials who wanted to see him replaced because of his condition but she refused to allow for that. She believed he would recover. Some time that may take, but she expected him to be her vice president when she won the White House. To remove him was viewed by her as giving the terrorists what they wanted too. She wouldn’t budge on the matter.
How would it look if she dropped him!?
The morning after that terror attack, as federal and state authorities afterwards sought AIA suspects – that bomb was hardly the work of a ‘lone wolf’ –, a right-wing internet blogger posted an extensive piece on her website concerning presidential candidate Maria Arreola Rodriguez. It was initially not taken as wider notice of by the mainstream media as it normally would have been had that bombing in Omaha not occurred. The blogger was Maddie Chen, a Taiwanese-American who had a big following especially among the Twenties ‘alternative media’. There was plenty of talk among them about conspiracies surrounding the assassination attempt against Anderson, but Chen’s piece got traction too. Unable to go back to her home country because the Chinese occupied it, and would certainly imprison her for political crimes, Chen was angry. She’d been angry for many years. Socialists like MAR made her angry. Yet, conversely, so did Republicans like Edward Roberts. Despite his white nationalism, Chen had given her support to the failed campaign of Senator Stokes earlier in the year… even after his unguarded comments about ‘yellow pr*cks’ when talking of Asians came to light. She did so because he had spoken plainly of getting even with China concerning the Taiwan Conflict. With MAR, the hatred from Chen was long-term. She’d openly mocked the assassination of MAR’s father through the years and regularly made reference to the California congresswoman’s wife as a ‘lesbot’. Chen wasn’t a nice young woman.
This online piece in question concerned the birthplace of MAR. It was public record that she was adopted aged five months by two California college professors in a certified legal manner. An orphan born an unmarried Mexican immigrant mother, MAR herself had spoken many times about the parent she never knew and the kind people who adopted her. It was a well-known story. Her birth had been registered in the California city of Bakersfield and MAR had long ago released into the public arena copies of her birth certificate. It had been alleged by opponents that she was Mexican, not American, and she had countered that with full disclosure. Americans had had previous experience with ‘Birtherism’ when it came to their 44th President: claims against MAR’s citizenship were generally dismissed. Few believed that she had been born in Mexico and there was widespread agreement that that was just a conspiracy theory. Chen’s blog contained new allegations though, dissimilar from past ones. A different mother was given as that of MAR and the birthplace – still over in Mexico though – wasn’t the same. Moreover, Chen alleged that she had evidence. Attached to the blog piece were copied documents. For all that she was, Chen was no conspiracy theorist. She was distasteful but never went down those roads when others did. These allegations of hers were serious and the presented evidence which she had wasn’t something to be scoffed at.
Infuriating for Chen, it took a few days for serious notice to be taken. She was served with cease-and-desist letters from a big San Francisco law firm (coming from the MAR campaign) and the internet service provider hosting her blog was hit with a major cyber attack (not authorised by that campaign). MAR was questioned about it all by friendly journalists. She called it all yet another conspiracy theory. Her mother had given birth to her in California and her adopted parents would never have been part of a lie to device her or anyone else about where she was born. More people were now seeing the documents about that birth of a child in Mexico in April 1990… and not one the same month at the previously-mentioned location in California. The Republicans picked up the story and began to use it. MAR wasn’t even a citizen and couldn’t be president! Roberts was naturally interested when he first heard of all of this. However, he didn’t believe that it was true. These allegations had been made before and had all be proved to be false. He tried to slow the attack lines coming out with the fear that it would all backfire on his campaign. Democrats were already on the counterattack, claiming that Roberts was trying to avert a defeat at the polls by spreading lies. MAR stopped answering questions about the matter after a week. It was ridiculous, she said, and her campaign focus was on the important matters affecting the American people. That was all well and good until, later in October 2020, with election day less than a fortnight away, her campaign manager made an off-hand, angry comment to a reporter who wouldn’t let the story go. The quoted remark reported in the Boston Globe was ‘even if she was Mexican, it wouldn’t matter’. It was a stupid, stupid thing to say: of course it mattered. That comment went nationwide and was twisted where needed by opponents. The senior-most staffer on MAR’s campaign stepped down at her request to try and dampen the story but it gave the whole issue more attention. The majority of the American people still didn’t believe it all… but the numbers who did were growing.
Teyo was shot in West Palm Beach on October 16th.
Real name Malik Sanchez, the singer and influential supporter of MAR was gunned down outside his recording studio on the Florida shore. He was rushed to hospital yet died in the ambulance on the way. Global headlines were made and there was worldwide mourning. Teyo invented Swagg, the most popular genre of popular music in the late-Twenties. His Swagg was ‘clean’ and thus not full of obscenities nor other vulgarities like certain other singers used in theirs. Bisexual, and open about it, Teyo was someone everyone knew because of the drama around that among those who hated on him due to his sexuality and his politics too. A democratic socialist who lived what he preached, Teyo was always at the centre of attention. He came from West Palm Beach and was the child of an African-American father & a Hispanic mother. Born into poverty – the city wasn’t all a millionaire’s playground –, he’d made it big. He lived a simple life though (no mansions, no private jets, no Bling) where he gave all his money away to the needy. Teyo was attached to no record label and had never produced himself any physical copies of his music: everything was all digital with plenty of it released free too. What money had had made had been poured back into the community from where he had come. Republicans and conservatives nationwide had long found offense at his politics while he had been welcomed greatly as a campaign surrogate by MAR as she ran for the White House. Days before his death, on one of those Friday Nights With MAR webcasts, he’d once more sung improv with her kids. They and their mothers were distraught at his death. So were the millions upon millions of fans he had. His latest song Dreamz at once broke all records in terms of downloads & streams.
At once, it was widely-believed that Teyo was murdered because of politics. The gunman who had avoided his security was caught by the local police. The Red state which was Florida was unfriendly to his politics, but this was a murder. There was no way that the local authorities were going to ignore this, not to someone like Teyo. That arrested suspect was Caucasian. It was said in selected sections of the media that he’d killed Teyo because he was a white supremist and wanted to hurt the Democrats’ chances of victory the next month. That wasn’t the case though. This was something else, to do with affairs of the heart. The truth, what would usually be an excellent story for the tabloid feeding frenzy, was lost when politics come into play. General views nationwide, among fans and those who despised him, was that Teyo was killed in another incident of political violence. That was either a good thing or a bad thing depending upon the partisan divide. But it was really about a twisted idea of what love meant.
The Omaha bombing, the allegations of MAR’s birth and the murder of Teyo were what commentators called Black Swan Events. They were unpredictable, late-stage campaign shocks. October was in the past often the month where sudden shocks happened – October Surprises were legendary in American presidential races – but they were generally more about politics than these were. Scandals would erupt. This time it was violence and unfounded but serious allegations about a candidate’s legitimacy to assume the office which they were running for. Neither campaign welcomed them. MAR didn’t and Roberts wasn’t happy either. October was when the two of them wanted to finish up winning over voters. They wanted to convince those so far undecided, the nation’s swing voters, especially in the Purple states, to back them over the other. The news was supposed to be about politics, not these events. How could Roberts welcome someone trying to kill his opponent’s running mate in a terrorist attack, the spreading of what seemed like baseless lies about her birth (recalling past Republican behaviour in the minds of voters) and the shocking murder of one of her most popular public supporters? MAR didn’t want to lose Anderson’s active participation in the race, have those lies spread about her and see a close family friend slain.
As the days ticked away to November 7th, there were less-dramatic campaign developments. Opinion polling numbers came in to cause worry and gaffes were made. This was usual, what was expected of a presidential race. MAR took a day off campaigning to go to the funeral service for Teyo and Roberts suspended campaigning that day too despite the anger of others in his party. The health of Anderson didn’t improve. He remained in his coma. It was too late for MAR to replace him now, even if she wanted to… which she didn’t. The FBI was still seeking those who had those stolen germ samples with false alerts about their possible use frightening people. Immense amounts of cash were spent on electioneering. There were Senate, House, State and local elections all taking place alongside the presidential race. Several instances of political violence were seen including the stabbing (he survived) of a Congressional candidate in Ohio and the shooting of a state assemblywoman in New Mexico (she died). Voter intimidation and fake news ran rampant. Passions were high. The watching world outside America waited to see who would win.
The campaign teams for MAR and Roberts each had mapped out how their candidate could win. The Republicans had more paths to victory than the Democrats did. Each could count on their base of support in deep Red and strong Blue states though they did have to be on their guard in vulnerable states. There were the purple states too, which everyone agreed would decide the election. If their base held up, maybe even if they only lost one Red state, the Republicans could gain the White House if they took at least two of the Purple states. If the numbers went their way with the few states which split their votes for the Electoral College, and they held on in all Red states, Roberts may only need one of the four – Pennsylvania – to win. His campaign wanted all of them in the Red column come the morning of November 8th though. The Democrats needed at least three of those Purple states and they also needed to strongly defend their own base: certain Blue states like Maine were perceived to be under threat. There was the chance that they could flip several red states and lessen the need of the Purple ones, though that was going to be difficult. The decision five years ago made in Washington state to split the votes for presidential elections there had hurt the Democrats in 2024 and that was feared for ’28 as well. MAR made a visit to the Pacific North-West and did state-targeted online events to go after Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Polling was promising in the first two states but there were bad omens in the latter two. MAR kept her spirits up yet there were other Democrats who thought she was going to lose this and give the White House to the Republicans.
Election day then came around.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 15, 2021 19:11:50 GMT
If James G feels like it, i will remove the post on Twitter.
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James G
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Post by James G on Jan 15, 2021 20:13:51 GMT
If James G feels like it, i will remove the post on Twitter. Excellent work. Thank you very much. Can I suggest a change to the wording though? 'After defeat against China and domestic unrest, America faces another civil war: a fictional tale.'
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 15, 2021 20:15:34 GMT
If James G feels like it, i will remove the post on Twitter. Excellent work. Thank you very much. Can I suggest a change to the wording though? 'After defeat against China and domestic unrest, America faces another civil war: a fictional tale.' I could, had not The Alternate Historian re-tweeted it.
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James G
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Post by James G on Jan 15, 2021 20:17:25 GMT
Red, Blue and Purple states in the USA in 2028. The state totals are assumptions based upon the aftermath of the 2020 census. Blue states: Arizona (12), California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (4 *), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Nevada (6), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (28), Oregon (8), Rhode Island (3), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12 *) plus District of Columbia (3). Total: 229 Red states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Florida (31), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5 *), New Hampshire (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (41), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wisconsin (10), Wyoming (3). Total: 250 Purple states: Michigan (15), Minnesota (9), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19). Total: 59
* These three states split their votes for president & vice president: Maine, Nebraska & Washington. (click on image to enlarge)
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 15, 2021 20:19:42 GMT
Red, Blue and Purple states in the USA in 2028. The state totals are assumptions based upon the aftermath of the 2020 census. Blue states: Arizona (12), California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (4 *), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Nevada (6), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (28), Oregon (8), Rhode Island (3), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12 *) plus District of Columbia (3). Total: 229 Red states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Florida (31), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5 *), New Hampshire (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (41), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wisconsin (10), Wyoming (3). Total: 250 Purple states: Michigan (15), Minnesota (9), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19). Total: 59
* These three states split their votes for president & vice president: Maine, Nebraska & Washington. View Attachment(click on image to enlarge) Purple seems to be the swing states.
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James G
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Post by James G on Jan 16, 2021 17:15:06 GMT
Red, Blue and Purple states in the USA in 2028. The state totals are assumptions based upon the aftermath of the 2020 census. Blue states: Arizona (12), California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (4 *), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Nevada (6), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (28), Oregon (8), Rhode Island (3), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12 *) plus District of Columbia (3). Total: 229 Red states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Florida (31), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5 *), New Hampshire (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (41), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wisconsin (10), Wyoming (3). Total: 250 Purple states: Michigan (15), Minnesota (9), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19). Total: 59
* These three states split their votes for president & vice president: Maine, Nebraska & Washington. View Attachment(click on image to enlarge) Purple seems to be the swing states. They are. Both campaigns will focus on them but each will be be surprised by the result in one state of a different colour.
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