A window of opportunity 1905

[stevep]

  575 ,

   Some good updates. Sounds like Stalin is looking east. Of course this is before the Japanese invasion of China so they have a lot of forces free and haven't had the same odium over their behaviour there so it could be a difficult fight for both sides.

  If I read your 2nd post right Italy loses the islands but keep Fiume and Zara?  Only on the 2nd mention you talk of it losing all to Yugoslavia but that's in contradiction with the earlier comments and the level of Yugoslav discontent so suspect there's a typo there?

  Britain might still go for the armoured carriers because without radar there is still the difficulty of interception plus the RN is still going to have a lot of its potential areas of operation close to land, which means a threat from land based air.  The latter is likely to be available in larger number than the few carriers could maintain for a CAP and there was a tendency for land based a/c to be more capable than carrier ones.  Especially in the British case as the RN insisted on two man a/c even for fighters because it thought a navigator was required for accurate operation, especially finding their way back to a carrier after a mission.  Would like to see carriers with a larger air capacity but there's a good chance that the I class armoured CVs will still be constructed, at least initially.  Although if Europe looks quiet and the Soviets and Japanese get into a major barney that could change a lot.

  However the lower tension in Europe could mean that the UK is able to wait a bit longer so assuming that talks break down on naval limits you could see something like an early Lion designs, ~40-43 thousand tons and 9x16" [or possibly 9x15"] guns rather than the OTL King George V class.

  Which reminds me of one butterfly coming up.  Assuming George V dies on scheduled has the Prince of Wales still become obsessed with a certain American divorcee?  That's something that could easily be avoided but would mean Edward VIII stays as king and he seems a poor monarch compared to his younger brother who became George VI.  [Too weak willed and dabbling with fascist ideas according to some sources.]

  Of course a major land war in NE Asia could drastically change Japanese building programmes.  If their in a big war with the USSR the navy is likely to be a lot less influential.  On the other hand, without the invasion of China and with the deep distrust of communism, which will be seen as the major threat with fascism not going the same influence as OTL they could well get a lot of sympathy from assorted western powers.

  Mind you if Italy post-Mussolini has problems with the black shirts and the army refused to act against them then drafting the black shirts into the army doesn't sounds like the wisest of ideas!  Your putting a group hostile to the current government into a military that isn't too hostile to them and elements of which at least will be bitter about their recent defeat so that sounds like potential for a more politically active and belligerent army.

  Steve

[575]

Jul 4, 2021 10:19:15 GMT stevep said:

  575 ,

   Some good updates. Sounds like Stalin is looking east. Of course this is before the Japanese invasion of China so they have a lot of forces free and haven't had the same odium over their behaviour there so it could be a difficult fight for both sides.

  If I read your 2nd post right Italy loses the islands but keep Fiume and Zara?  Only on the 2nd mention you talk of it losing all to Yugoslavia but that's in contradiction with the earlier comments and the level of Yugoslav discontent so suspect there's a typo there?

  Britain might still go for the armoured carriers because without radar there is still the difficulty of interception plus the RN is still going to have a lot of its potential areas of operation close to land, which means a threat from land based air.  The latter is likely to be available in larger number than the few carriers could maintain for a CAP and there was a tendency for land based a/c to be more capable than carrier ones.  Especially in the British case as the RN insisted on two man a/c even for fighters because it thought a navigator was required for accurate operation, especially finding their way back to a carrier after a mission.  Would like to see carriers with a larger air capacity but there's a good chance that the I class armoured CVs will still be constructed, at least initially.  Although if Europe looks quiet and the Soviets and Japanese get into a major barney that could change a lot.

  However the lower tension in Europe could mean that the UK is able to wait a bit longer so assuming that talks break down on naval limits you could see something like an early Lion designs, ~40-43 thousand tons and 9x16" [or possibly 9x15"] guns rather than the OTL King George V class.

  Which reminds me of one butterfly coming up.  Assuming George V dies on scheduled has the Prince of Wales still become obsessed with a certain American divorcee?  That's something that could easily be avoided but would mean Edward VIII stays as king and he seems a poor monarch compared to his younger brother who became George VI.  [Too weak willed and dabbling with fascist ideas according to some sources.]

  Of course a major land war in NE Asia could drastically change Japanese building programmes.  If their in a big war with the USSR the navy is likely to be a lot less influential.  On the other hand, without the invasion of China and with the deep distrust of communism, which will be seen as the major threat with fascism not going the same influence as OTL they could well get a lot of sympathy from assorted western powers.

  Mind you if Italy post-Mussolini has problems with the black shirts and the army refused to act against them then drafting the black shirts into the army doesn't sounds like the wisest of ideas!  Your putting a group hostile to the current government into a military that isn't too hostile to them and elements of which at least will be bitter about their recent defeat so that sounds like potential for a more politically active and belligerent army.

  Steve

Stevep;

Thanks

My thoughts - or at least some of them; stuff seems to be cropping up for real..

Stalin is looking east - the OTL Special Military Districts in the West isn't really needed except if the Poles should be too stupid or wanted to be taken out. Germany isn't really a problem at the time with Rapallo Treaty still in force. Haven't really decided on what Stalin will do once its cancelled.

The Far East Military Districts is building up and so will the Pacific Navy which except for Submarines won't be a problem to the Japanese.

Italy does cede Fiume and Zara along the Dalmatian Islands. Sorry if that have been messed up - I looked through the manuscript and to me its running as posted. If I change whats posted from script I change that to reflect changes. The Italians wanted Fiume and Zara originally and got them during the 1920's. Yugoslavia claimed them too.

Thanks for the comments on the British AC - note taken.

I presume the Japanese still wants to build as large a Navy as possible within limitations. That of course means in respect to USA and Britain and a lesser extend France in Indochina waters.

Edward VIII? at least won't be chums with the Nazi leadership if that was the case. Problem is of course the outlook of the times - though with European Fascism sidelined there may still be wantings here and there of a "strong man" leadership. In the case of Spain I'm still pondering how things play out.

Yes the drafting of Blackshirts (those that want as an analogue to the SA drafted into the Wehrmacht - which was planned) may seem a logical move by the Italians do get those guys into something that will control them. Shipping them off to the colonies for real work.

Of course from what I've read on the Italian Army it seemed to have embraced Fascism which isn't a mystery at least to me - but I well know it will prove annoying soon. And yes I do think the Italians may aid the Spanish Army Coup and what the French and British may do about it at least if things are going the OTL way with the African Army getting onto mainland Spain. Kinda Monarchy aiding Monarchy and Catholic brotherhood and stuff propaganda.

The Italian King and Army may just be seen as those that brought back order to Italy.

If it doesn't the coup will foil/be quelched in Spain however the Morocco and Islands will be another matter as will Catalonia.. I could see France and Britain letting the Italians aid the coup if the Popular Front Government of Spain is too victorious or it breaks down following defeat of the coup in Mainland Spain. I haven't decided on this.

There haven't been rapprochement of France and Sovietunion and I guess the Brits will be off any such which makes either letting the Italians do the job or themselves intervene in Spain to avoid any kind of Soviet/Komintern interference - even if the Soviet are fighting the Japanese in Manchuria and as you point to Western sympathy for the Imperial Japanese fighting the Bear.

The times seem just to be so convoluted when looking at with our 2021 outlook.

[stevep]

   575 ,

   Ah looked at your original post on the peace terms and realised I misread it.  I took the Yugoslav unhappiness at the French stance as them opposing the transfer of Fiume and Zara but see now it was other border changes which the Italians got from Austria in 1919.  Apologies.

  Steve

[575]

1936
SAAB is working with the Hispano-Suiza 12Yn engine to get more power just as are the French themselves and the Soviets by their Klimov version.
SAAB engineers visit the Danish and Finn workshops that is building the P4/34 divebombers; the lines of the aircraft much impress SAAB and the blueprints are intensely studied. SAAB is allowed a testrun of a Merlin II engine; powerplant of the P4/34 but also the Hawker Hurricane fighter aircraft.

As is the case in France, Britain and Germany SAAB also change the design of the upcoming new fighter prototype to increase fuel carried for a longer range and increased operational time.
In France the C1 specification of 1934 is changed to include larger fuel tanks for extended range and thus the already approved MS406 is rejected as the next fighteraircraft.
Also development of Radar is a priority in France as a means to detect incoming aircraft mainly at night.

The the most advanced modern designs are seen in Germany where both Heinkel and Messerschmitt are offering new fighter aircraft for the Reichswehr. Other modern designs are light monoplane bombers and reconnaisance aircraft.
Within a few years the German Reichswehr will possess the most modern albeit rather short range combat aircraft. However the prospect of offering its produce in China and other badly developed areas is a tempting way to keep production running and effecting orders at the moment before switching along the French focus on long range of any aircraft type and redrawing German aircraft prototypes and shifting production too.

In Britain the combination of development of Radar for early warning over the surrounding water bodies is tied to longer range fighter aircraft to advance the possibility of engaging the enemy as far off the Home Shores as possible – a highly desirable objective though this also demand a numerous Search and Rescue Service which also is a benefit to sailors and fishermen.

Germany and France conclude the negotiations of changes to the Versailles Treaty; in accord with Britain and the USA Germany is permitted an enlargement of the peacetime Army to 200,000 troops and a reserve of like size. Limitations on Germanys acquisition of Tanks and Aircraft are lifted. Germany given full sovereignty of the Rhineland.
Reparations payments are suspended to be renewed once the debtors are able to renew payments of wartime US loans.
The German – Polish Customs war had been taken off the agenda as President Wels argued that it would most probably be droppe in the future but also because the Polish buildup of forces on the Teschen Border Area had reached Paris and Laval now French President didn't like this development. True the Czechoslovaks had proven able to do their own in the late war but France wanted a group of allies not a group of quarrelling states bordering Soviet Russia in the East – and Germany the latter now of no importance.
All the more important to strengthen Germany and due to this state of affairs Germany is allowed to increase its Army in two years another 100,000 troops during peacetime and alotted Naval tonnage equal to France but no Battleships or Submarines.
The Naval allotment allowed the Reichswehr plenty room for building new ships two of which were projected as Aircraft Carriers, three Deutschland Class heavy cruisers and a large number of large Torpedoboats (Destroyers).

Denmark begin from studies of the French DLM Division and the British Experimental Armoured Force as well as the Czechoslovak Fast Division to setup in Jutland a Motorized Brigade intended as a counterattack force should Denmark be invaded (by Germany). The Brigade is to field two regiments; one of an Armoured Battalion with Landsverk light tanks and an Anti-Tank Battalion mainly on Motorcycles but also fielding a Company of 37mm Bofors guns. The other regiment of two truck Motorized Infantry Battalions one of which is intended to be Norwegian troops on Danish trucks!
Due to the cost of the Motorization the field army in Jutland is cut back one Infantry Division from three to two of which one is still being a reserve/mobilization formation.

In the wake of the Yugoslavian Crisis Hartvig Frisch of the Socialdemocratic Party of Denmark publish a book – Plague over Europe in which he analyze the political situation of his time. Amid the Fascist experience of the previous year counting Hungary and Italy he also dubs a number of states like Poland, Austria, the Baltic States and others as proto-fascist right-wing religiously conservative. Others are dictatorships like Yugoslavia.
The star in the Central-Eastern European mess is the ascending democracies of Germany and Czechoslovakia on which the future must be built. Germany having truly risen from the ashes of failed Empire and proto-fascist Republic to a real democracy where government is supported by the Armed Forces. Czechoslovakia is where the peoples right of selfdetermination within state boundaries are the most respected besides the Nordic and Low Countries.
The book doesn't sell much outside the Nordic Countries though the Germans are aware of it.

[575]

Spanish Civil War:
In Spain unrest have been simmering for the past few years with large elements of the workers population rejecting the influenze of the Catholic Church on society and at times seeing almost civil war situations develop in different parts of the country mostly so in Catalonia where a strong Syndicalist fraction wants independence; the military attemps a coup of the Republican Government led by General Mola. Another General, Franco Governor of the Canaries is killed during the opening days as his aircraft chrashes into the sea flying for French Morocco to join the coupmakers.
The majority of the various Police Forces still support Government and actively partake in defeating the Army on mainland Spain. (quite a number did OTL)
The major flaw of the coup is that the Army isn't able to get the Moroccan Army across the Strait of Gibraltar. True the part of the Navy loyal to the Government steared the Battleship Jaime I to bombard Melilla and Ceuta only itself to be shelled from the shore and withdrawing though having severely damaged some ships intended for troopstransport as well as harbour installations stopping the transport of troops to the mainland. (they did try it but were driven off by aircraft and artillery)
By the end of August the fortress of Alcazar last rebellious stronghold in Mainland Spain fell to the Army of the Republic.

As Government and Cortes discussed how to subject the Rebels in Morocco the Syndicalist's of Catalonia demanded independence.
The Basque members of Cortes demanded it too though were willing to settle for some form of Local-Home Rule.
With so many different militias still armed and no clear command of them the Army was ordered to disarm the militias in order to prepare for the invasion of Morocco.
At that things went really out of control in Mainland Spain; the Syndicalists of Catalonia aided by the Communists refused to disarm and marched towards home. As they approached Zaragoza they were stopped by an Army battalion that demanded they lay down arms and then continue home.
The militia refused doing so and a firefight broke out with the militia forcing its way into Zaragoza and setting up barricades.
Army reinforcements began arriving and the siege of Zaragoza began.

As news of the Zaragoza siege reached Cortes negotiations on subduing the rebels in Morocco broke down. Later in the day a communist coup unfolded in Madrid only to be fought off by the Police.

Watching the developments in Spain France Laval by now Premier of French Government following the latest shuffle of government decided to disarm til Spanish rebels in Morocco; at first he notified the Spanish Premier and then ordered the French Army into Spanish Morocco. The French officers having just had a taste of warfare in Italy had no problems moving on the Spanish them being rebels. Anyway troubles might just develop in French parts of Morocco and no sane French officer wanted any of this again.
With substantial aircover and the Marine Nationale blocking Melilla and Ceuta harbours the Spanish Army rebels folded quickly; no need to die at the hands of the French.

The developments of course did little to stop the chaos on mainland Spain but it provided Government with a sufficient breathing space to raise more troops and equip those with the weapons delivered by Laval as part of the parcel of supporting the Government.

Of course Laval didn't like the possible prospect of a Communist/Anarkist fractured Spain – he had more than enough problems with the left wing parties of France. No need to fuel it by having a showcase to the south just across the border.
Another issue was the seeming success of the Red Army combatting the Japanese in Manchouko at the time being.

[stevep]

Sept 18, 2021 11:41:55 GMT 575 said:

Spanish Civil War:
In Spain unrest have been simmering for the past few years with large elements of the workers population rejecting the influenze of the Catholic Church on society and at times seeing almost civil war situations develop in different parts of the country mostly so in Catalonia where a strong Syndicalist fraction wants independence; the military attemps a coup of the Republican Government led by General Mola. Another General, Franco Governor of the Canaries is killed during the opening days as his aircraft chrashes into the sea flying for French Morocco to join the coupmakers.
The majority of the various Police Forces still support Government and actively partake in defeating the Army on mainland Spain. (quite a number did OTL)
The major flaw of the coup is that the Army isn't able to get the Moroccan Army across the Strait of Gibraltar. True the part of the Navy loyal to the rebels steared the Battleship Jaime I to bombard Melilla and Ceuta only itself to be shelled from the shore and withdrawing though having severely damaged some ships intended for troopstransport as well as harbour installations stopping the transport of troops to the mainland. (they did try it but were driven off by aircraft and artillery)
By the end of August the fortress of Alcazar last rebellious stronghold in Mainland Spain fell to the Army of the Republic.

As Government and Cortes discussed how to subject the Rebels in Morocco the Syndicalist's of Catalonia demanded independence.
The Basque members of Cortes demanded it too though were willing to settle for some form of Local-Home Rule.
With so many different militias still armed and no clear command of them the Army was ordered to disarm the militias in order to prepare for the invasion of Morocco.
At that things went really out of control in Mainland Spain; the Syndicalists of Catalonia aided by the Communists refused to disarm and marched towards home. As they approached Zaragoza they were stopped by an Army battalion that demanded they lay down arms and then continue home.
The militia refused doing so and a firefight broke out with the militia forcing its way into Zaragoza and setting up barricades.
Army reinforcements began arriving and the siege of Zaragoza began.

As news of the Zaragoza siege reached Cortes negotiations on subduing the rebels in Morocco broke down. Later in the day a communist coup unfolded in Madrid only to be fought off by the Police.

Watching the developments in Spain France Laval by now Premier of French Government following the latest shuffle of government decided to disarm til Spanish rebels in Morocco; at first he notified the Spanish Premier and then ordered the French Army into Spanish Morocco. The French officers having just had a taste of warfare in Italy had no problems moving on the Spanish them being rebels. Anyway troubles might just develop in French parts of Morocco and no sane French officer wanted any of this again.
With substantial aircover and the Marine Nationale blocking Melilla and Ceuta harbours the Spanish Army rebels folded quickly; no need to die at the hands of the French.

The developments of course did little to stop the chaos on mainland Spain but it provided Government with a sufficient breathing space to raise more troops and equip those with the weapons delivered by Laval as part of the parcel of supporting the Government.

Of course Laval didn't like the possible prospect of a Communist/Anarkist fractured Spain – he had more than enough problems with the left wing parties of France. No need to fuel it by having a showcase to the south just across the border.
Another issue was the seeming success of the Red Army combatting the Japanese in Manchouko at the time being.

  575,

  Good to see this back again and also that the fascist coup attempt seems to have failed.  Franco is dead, they can't get the army across from Morocco and by the sound of it its defeated by the French at the end.  Sounds like more problems for Spain from the hard left but hopefully they can be defeated at this point.

  I don't understand the bit

The major flaw of the coup is that the Army isn't able to get the Moroccan Army across the Strait of Gibraltar. True the part of the Navy loyal to the rebels steared the Battleship Jaime I to bombard Melilla and Ceuta only itself to be shelled from the shore and withdrawing though having severely damaged some ships intended for troopstransport as well as harbour installations stopping the transport of troops to the mainland. (they did try it but were driven off by aircraft and artillery)

  If the forces that seize control of Jamie I are loyal to the rebels why are they going to Morocco and bombarding the rebel forces there, impeding the transfer of troops to the mainland?  Or did you mean loyal to the republic/government?

  Laval seems a different character to OTL as he seems to oppose fascism but that would be useful.

  The apparent success of the Soviets against the Japanese - although I thought that happened later OTL ~1939 rather than 1936 with the Japanese having some successes the year before.

  Steve

[575]

Sept 18, 2021 14:50:38 GMT stevep said:

Sept 18, 2021 11:41:55 GMT 575 said:

Spanish Civil War:
In Spain unrest have been simmering for the past few years with large elements of the workers population rejecting the influenze of the Catholic Church on society and at times seeing almost civil war situations develop in different parts of the country mostly so in Catalonia where a strong Syndicalist fraction wants independence; the military attemps a coup of the Republican Government led by General Mola. Another General, Franco Governor of the Canaries is killed during the opening days as his aircraft chrashes into the sea flying for French Morocco to join the coupmakers.
The majority of the various Police Forces still support Government and actively partake in defeating the Army on mainland Spain. (quite a number did OTL)
The major flaw of the coup is that the Army isn't able to get the Moroccan Army across the Strait of Gibraltar. True the part of the Navy loyal to the rebels steared the Battleship Jaime I to bombard Melilla and Ceuta only itself to be shelled from the shore and withdrawing though having severely damaged some ships intended for troopstransport as well as harbour installations stopping the transport of troops to the mainland. (they did try it but were driven off by aircraft and artillery)
By the end of August the fortress of Alcazar last rebellious stronghold in Mainland Spain fell to the Army of the Republic.

As Government and Cortes discussed how to subject the Rebels in Morocco the Syndicalist's of Catalonia demanded independence.
The Basque members of Cortes demanded it too though were willing to settle for some form of Local-Home Rule.
With so many different militias still armed and no clear command of them the Army was ordered to disarm the militias in order to prepare for the invasion of Morocco.
At that things went really out of control in Mainland Spain; the Syndicalists of Catalonia aided by the Communists refused to disarm and marched towards home. As they approached Zaragoza they were stopped by an Army battalion that demanded they lay down arms and then continue home.
The militia refused doing so and a firefight broke out with the militia forcing its way into Zaragoza and setting up barricades.
Army reinforcements began arriving and the siege of Zaragoza began.

As news of the Zaragoza siege reached Cortes negotiations on subduing the rebels in Morocco broke down. Later in the day a communist coup unfolded in Madrid only to be fought off by the Police.

Watching the developments in Spain France Laval by now Premier of French Government following the latest shuffle of government decided to disarm til Spanish rebels in Morocco; at first he notified the Spanish Premier and then ordered the French Army into Spanish Morocco. The French officers having just had a taste of warfare in Italy had no problems moving on the Spanish them being rebels. Anyway troubles might just develop in French parts of Morocco and no sane French officer wanted any of this again.
With substantial aircover and the Marine Nationale blocking Melilla and Ceuta harbours the Spanish Army rebels folded quickly; no need to die at the hands of the French.

The developments of course did little to stop the chaos on mainland Spain but it provided Government with a sufficient breathing space to raise more troops and equip those with the weapons delivered by Laval as part of the parcel of supporting the Government.

Of course Laval didn't like the possible prospect of a Communist/Anarkist fractured Spain – he had more than enough problems with the left wing parties of France. No need to fuel it by having a showcase to the south just across the border.
Another issue was the seeming success of the Red Army combatting the Japanese in Manchouko at the time being.

  575 ,

  Good to see this back again and also that the fascist coup attempt seems to have failed.  Franco is dead, they can't get the army across from Morocco and by the sound of it its defeated by the French at the end.  Sounds like more problems for Spain from the hard left but hopefully they can be defeated at this point.

  I don't understand the bit

The major flaw of the coup is that the Army isn't able to get the Moroccan Army across the Strait of Gibraltar. True the part of the Navy loyal to the rebels steared the Battleship Jaime I to bombard Melilla and Ceuta only itself to be shelled from the shore and withdrawing though having severely damaged some ships intended for troopstransport as well as harbour installations stopping the transport of troops to the mainland. (they did try it but were driven off by aircraft and artillery)

  If the forces that seize control of Jamie I are loyal to the rebels why are they going to Morocco and bombarding the rebel forces there, impeding the transfer of troops to the mainland?  Or did you mean loyal to the republic/government?

  Laval seems a different character to OTL as he seems to oppose fascism but that would be useful.

  The apparent success of the Soviets against the Japanese - although I thought that happened later OTL ~1939 rather than 1936 with the Japanese having some successes the year before.

  Steve

Ah yes part of the Spanish Navy - mainly sailors - remained loyal to the Government and tried blocking the transfer of troops from Morocco. Will do a slight edit.

I rather view the actions of Laval in regard to Italy and Musso as Nationalist and perhaps French rightwing fascism. His action regarding Spain is merely to keep the left wing at bay. I know he would join Vichy but we don't get such ITTL. Rather he is staunchly French nationalist and don't give a damn about Italy or Spain or anybody else if they would be working to the detriment of French Gloire!

[575]

Far East:
The fighting between the Soviet/Mongol Armies and Japanese/Manchouko Armies continue. The planned Japanese invasion of China had been called off due to substantial formations being directed north to meet the Soviet thrusts into Manchouko.

As the defence stiffened in the Western Desert the Soviet attack seemed to be slowing down. With the Japanese readying to mount a counter offensive the Soviets were moving the second Corps of the Special Far Eastern Army the 19. Corps in as the second echelon of the attack along the Northwestern Railway.
The Japanese counterattack did serve to stop even the Soviet second echelon attack and drive the Soviets some 20 km's back. The Japanese had overcome the lack of anti-tank weapons to counter the Soviet Tank battalions by mounting AA-guns on every available truck and throwing it into the line of defence.
As the Kwantung Army staff was celebrating victory in the desert the second Soviet thrust hit them west of Vladivostok along the railway leading to Harbin in Central Manchouko. The Soviets had activated the Special Far Eastern Military District that had been moved into position during the past year.
Manchouko and Japanese troops were hastily moved east to check the second Soviet attack.
By the and of April the Soviet troops had been checked in both West and East with the Japanese preparing a drive against both. As the Japanese were ready to jump-off the Soviets asked for a ceasefire and return to status quo ante which the Kwantung Army were only too happy to accept without consulting Tokyo.
The fighting had severely depleted Kwantung Army stockpiles built up for the continued operations for the subjugation of China eventually to prepare for a full invasion of China.

The German Military Mission to China start training part of General Chiang Kai-Cheks Army.
German industrialists advise the Government on building or expanding industry related to the Armed Forces to build a local logistics base.
As calm had settled in Machouko the Kwantung Army had moved south to once again test Chinese defences. Though still in the buildup phase the few German trained units were able to hold their own even if other units would be pushed out of their positions.
Soon the Chinese would get a breathing space and their German instructors resume training.
The Germans would also be supplying the Chinese with 37mm Anti-Tank guns though realizing the Japanese wouldn't be fielding many tanks both AP and HE rounds were supplied as the Swedish Bofors gun would have been supplied as such if that had won the contract.
On the other side of the hill the Poles were suppling the Japanese with their licencebuilt Bofors 37mm guns with AP and HE rounds though the AP was in larger numbers because of the many Soviet tanks to be encountered.
Czechoslovakia was another European armsexporter benefitting from the situation in the Far East. With the German threat removed for the moment the Skoda works was securing orders from China for any item of military hardware: Artillery, Tanks, firearms, ammunition, trucks and cars as well as aircraft from the Czech aircraft factories; only item not supplied for logical reasons being warships but then the British and Italians were more than willing to supply any such.
At the time France was the major supplier of yesterdays aircraft to build and train the Chinese Airforce.

Just a few months went by before the Soviets were back in numbers. This time they were commanded by General Tukatjevski himself allowed to take his tank theories into real world action by a Stalin who had been positively impressed by the abilities of the Red Army.
Now however was the time for the Red Army to really prove itself; even if complaining of limited logistics base Tukatjevski was ordered to provide success well knowing that his life might depend on doing so the general set off.
This time the Japanese wouldn't be surprised in the east as the area to the west of Vladivostok had been in process of being heavily fortified; unknown to the Japanese the Far Eastern Special Military District had moved west to take command of the Far Eastern Army as the Far Eastern Front commanded by Tukatjevski.
The Japanese hadn't expected an attack so early and was still in process of rebuilding the Kwantung and Korean Armies. The Japanese Foreign Office had warned of possible Soviet-German cooperation in the Far East but so far not much in that direction had been discovered; rather it seemed the two nations were competitors in China.
The Japanese Army had tried to dispell the fears of the Foreign Office claiming it had stood the test of the Soviet onslaught. The Army would once again face off the enemy once it showed itself.
Problem being the Japanese Army had expected much more time to rebuild units and stockpiles as well as plan expansion of logistics which was a sore spot. When the Soviets came it was a shock.

The attackers crossed the borders along the Northwest Railway line heading southeast. This time the Japanese anti-tank guns were of little use in the opening days as the Soviet Infantry would attack supported by heavy artillery units. Even if supplied with limited numbers of HE rounds the Japanese Anti-Tank units were of little support to the Infantry in stalling the Soviet advance as the Anti-Tank Guns would at anytime be sent off in their primary role to stop the Soviet Tank advance once it materialized itself.

Only a few days later the Soviets convinced that the Japanese were heading for Manzhouli and the area between lakes Buir and Dalai to build their defences did the Soviet Tank Army cross the border further north and speed southeast to cut off the Japanese main defence force.
A small Parachute force was flown to the east of lake Dalai to make a roadblock to stop Japanese reinforcements arriving and a second Parachute force was flown almost one hundred kilometers southeast along the railway to stop reinforcements move in by train.

The second part of the Soviet plan went well during the opening days; Tukakjevski's Tank Army made fine headway though the motorized infantry provided were too light a force to really support the tanks when serious opposition were encountered. In these days there wasn't much serious opposition though and things seemed to be going great.
Only during the second week of operations did the Japanese manage to clear the Soviet Paratroops off the road and railway parts they were occupying though it had been a tough fight and the railway had been blown in several places during the last days of fighting.
The impact of these long range operations was to deprive the Japanese of troops reinforcements during almost a week but more importantly of ammunition replenishment.

The week following the wiping out of the Soviet Paratroops the Soviet Tank Army arrived on the scene pushing the Japanese back and then the advance would stall as the Japanese were able to shuttle anti-tank guns into action directly off the railway flat-wagons.
Realizing the deficiencies in supplying the needed forces into the desert the Japanese instead tried assaulting the Vladivostok defensive complex only to get bogged down by stiff Soviet Infantry and Artillery defences.

The Japanese attack on Vladivostok were Tukatjevski's cue; the Tank Army moved ahead again overrunning though incurring serious losses the Japanese defenders who were running low on ammunition and not stopping before reaching the Shiloka/Kingan Mountains and the newly dug Japanese defences. Even so the Soviet Army managed to encircle a large part of the Japanese force in the area between the Mongolian border and the foothills of the Shiloka Mountains. Parts of the encircled troops did manage to move through the desert back to the Japanese defences in the mountains.

Though the Japanese Army Airforce claimed hundreds of aircombat victories the Soviets were slowly increasing its tally as units gained experience; no matter what the Japanese combat pilots were just outstanding.
The Soviets fared much better in the Japanese Sea where Soviet Submarines were taking its toll on the Japanese Merchant Shipping even if the huge Japanese Navy were able to dominate on the surface.

Seeing almost a month of trench warfare on the slopes of the Shiloka Mountains in the fortified area of Vladivostok and in the Japanese Sea the Japanese realized it was time to end the fighting if the invasion of China should have any chance of taking off the next year though even that timetable seemed way too short.
The Soviet Submarines of the Far Eastern Fleet had been a nasty experience sinking more than one hundred thousend tons of shipping.
As the fighting had spread into Japanese waters Government this time ran negotiations with the Sovietunion. The Japanese would demilitarize the Soviet border of Korea and Manchouku as well as the Manchouku – Mongolian border for five years. The Soviets would pull its troops out of Machouku though still be able to utilize the Manchouku railways for transport between China and the Sovietunion/Mongolia.
The treaty of course fired off an intense infight of the Japanese Government, Army and Navy of the ways of future expansion.

[stevep]

  575 ,

   Well that is interesting.  Some heavy fighting and losses for both sides.  Its delayed an invasion of China and even the Japanese army should be questioning whether such a move would be practical with the Red Army at their rear.  Plus given the additional time and extra support from the west China is likely to prove a bigger challenge that OTL.

  Both Soviets and Japanese seem to have learnt some valuable lessons and the Japanese are likely to develop more armour and anti-armour weaponry - at least if the army wins the power struggle with the navy - while the latter and commercial/industrial interests have been warned about the need for much better protection of merchant shipping, which could be bad for the western allies if there's still a war with Japan in the near future.  Not sure how much the Soviets might have learnt, given that they seem to have been fairly successful so coupled with the dead hand of Stalinism they could learn less and become over-confident, although if there's any attack on Poland or Finland they might do better there.

  Steve

[575]

My take was that without the German threat in the West the Soviets would go East; too bad for the Japanese designs on China. I don't see the Japanese go all out on China ITTL. The Red Army poised on the border even with 1937 Tanks would be too much for the Japs to swallow and only a few years before the T-34 arrive on the scene. However as both sides didn't do really well logistically by 1939 the infrastructure pretty much outline the areas of operations. And the Soviets just might botch it if they don't have the time to get everything right.
Stalin is rather joyfull about the success but may still get paranoid..
To some extend the realities of Europe is played out in the Far East with Sovietunion and Germany split on China even if not at odds in Europe but then the Poles want the Soviets kept busy as far away as possible.
I guess China might just get its shit together if given time and less infighting which of course would be too much to hope for. Though it has got a breathing pause.

I'm thinking about the Italians; there have been no Abyssinian Campain but the plan is still in the drawer and its just an African nation.. It didn't get a chance to go to Spain or Albania - guess the Yugoslavians would get upset about the latter.

Thoughts and ideas welcome

[stevep]

Sept 25, 2021 20:25:40 GMT 575 said:

My take was that without the German threat in the West the Soviets would go East; too bad for the Japanese designs on China. I don't see the Japanese go all out on China ITTL. The Red Army poised on the border even with 1937 Tanks would be too much for the Japs to swallow and only a few years before the T-34 arrive on the scene. However as both sides didn't do really well logistically by 1939 the infrastructure pretty much outline the areas of operations. And the Soviets just might botch it if they don't have the time to get everything right.
Stalin is rather joyfull about the success but may still get paranoid..
To some extend the realities of Europe is played out in the Far East with Sovietunion and Germany split on China even if not at odds in Europe but then the Poles want the Soviets kept busy as far away as possible.
I guess China might just get its shit together if given time and less infighting which of course would be too much to hope for. Though it has got a breathing pause.

I'm thinking about the Italians; there have been no Abyssinian Campain but the plan is still in the drawer and its just an African nation.. It didn't get a chance to go to Spain or Albania - guess the Yugoslavians would get upset about the latter.

Thoughts and ideas welcome

  Well I think Mussolini would be eager for some adventure to display the 'greatness' of Italy under his rule.  However with a non-fascist Germany more aligned with the other western democracies and with Spain non-fascist as well he's rather isolated.  Britain and France especially might object to any adventure in E Africa, and with British control over the Suez canal that means a hell of a lot. 

  Both Yugoslavia and Greece would be upset over any move against Albania but Mussolini might think he could get away with an 'operation' there without war or handle any military opposition from either of those two.  If he's deluded enough he might think it would give an excuse for further border extensions.  I would expect if left along Italy could probably defeat both nations but they would find it a hell of a lot costlier than they expended and then have to hold onto them!  Possibly trying to lure Bulgaria and Hungary into such operations as both have claims as well and setting up a Croat protectorate but that does leave the risk of triggering a wider conflict.

[575]

1937
Scandinavia
Denmark and Finland having built their P4/34 light bombers is visited by SAAB engineers who have built the prototype of a new fighter utilizing the licenced Hispano-Suiza 12Yn engine of the Bk-534 but in new trim with a 1050 hp output. The prototype is a scale down P4/34 to 2/3 size as a one man fighter aircraft to supply the airforces of the Nordic countries.
Having seen both the French Morane Saulnier MS406 fighter aircraft with its cumbersome radiator and the more clean design of the British Hawker Hurricane the engine of which powers the P4/34 the SAAB engineers opted for the British design and developed a monoplane fighter closely resembling the P4/34 though without the long greenhouse but with an all round canopy.
Both Denmark and Finland is eyeing the SAAB Hispano-Suiza 12YnS as a replacement for their new light bombers engine mainly due to the cannon firing through the propeller hub but the SAAB fighter looks very promising too.
Soon an agreement is reached with the SAAB factory of trading engines once these will be available; SAAB wants the Merlin I to develop too for twin engined bombers and reconnaisance aircraft.
Late in the year the SAAB fighter is being testflown and showing good performance mainly in turns (as inherited from the P4/34). The prototype is regarded being so promising that orders from all four Nordic nations is forwarded to SAAB. A single machine is ordered by Avia of Czechoslovakia and other fighters are ordered by Yugoslavia, Romania and China. Germany also order a single machine for evaluation against German designs.

Spain
In Spain the Government have more or less restored peace following the infighting of the various political fractions on the mainland though the judicial aftermath fires up the political unrest as mainly Communists and Anarkists but also Carlists are furious at the deathsentences handed out by the Popular Front Government now seen as a political purge of opponents to stay in power.
Also the Church interfere in the proces claiming reparations for destructions during the Coup perpetrated by Government forces leading to constitutional separation of Church and State which fires up the mind of many believers.
The unrest in Spain continue the full year making resumption of normal life difficult but also pave the way for Sovietunion Communists to support its Spanish allies with subversive writings as well as hardware for fighting to Government.
Pierre Laval French Premier condems the subversive Sovietunion activities in Spain and supplies weapons and materiel for the Spanish Police Forces. (plural intentional)

Italy
Italy is another country of political instability following the Yugoslavian War and removal of Mussolini the Fascist Party have been a constant worry of Government and King which have made for a subversive Fascist political and terrorist activity since 1935 now apparently in the wake of Soviet victory in the Far East the Italian Communists had gotten a financial injection from Moscow somehow being able to resume political activities that had been dormant since the March on Rome by the Fascists during 1922.
Not having a big brother to the North to supply support by word or in the material sense as Laval as well as other neighbours are not adverse to political unrest in Italy the Italian civilian Government strongly supported by Marshal Badoglio of the Army does its best to combat activists on both fringes of the political spectrum.
Already the remnants of the former Fascist Militia have been disbanded and thus no longer forms part of the Army as it was found to be distabilizing to morale.
Some leading members of the Fascist Party had been deported to the Colonies as members of the administration to keep them out of harms way and to shut them up.
Badoglio advocates playing the Church card to rally the poor masses against the political fringe parties as it would remove a lot of popular support from the Fascists and pull the workers towards the center away from Communism.
The King adopts the scheme as it supports the idea of Royalty supported by God and attend mass and other Church ceremonies wherever possible.
The Communists warn the populace that this renewed official adherence is a Fascist remnant adopted by the Conservative Government to lead it into the fold of control as is the Fascists in some other wording as it seems the Communists gain some support from this – convinienty forgetting the Lateran agreement of 1929.
As economy was still lacking and suppliers of coal wasn't plenty with Germany having fired up industry lately to rebuild its armed forces as well as supplying Czechoslovakia and Austria not to mention the Scandinavians and the possible supplyers due to the still creaking economy of the World demanded hard cash which Italy didn't have something had to be done internally.
During the time of Italian occupation of Libya a constant activity had been drilling deep water wells occasionally hitting oil as an unwanted reward. Equipment being scarce for use in a desert environment and funds lacking to buy from primarily the USA the Italians had to do it by themselves.
Some exploration had been done since 1935 as an aside to the water wells drilling by initiative of geologist Desio if only to suvey the possibility. (OTL)
This year due to bad finances and the overall economic situation as well as the extended refit of the Navys Battleships due to lack of finances since the Yugoslavian War of 1935 which had already been partially converted to being oilburners something had to be done and the already scheduled exploration progamme was put into action.
Even if means were meager what was available was utilized and improved upon as time went by and as resources would permit.
During the years exploration nothing much would be achived but the scheme found as important as to be continually funded.

China
Gearing up for the looming Japanese attack the Government of China hire instructors from anywhere that will be able to supply the Chinese Armed Forces as well as industry with knowledge and thus make a difference for China. One of the men going to China because of this is USAAC Major Claire Chennault who had left the USAAC over disputes with his superiors and being deemed unqualified for promotion.
Arriving in China Chennault would find the Chinese Airforce a mothly assembly of different aircraft types which make for horrible logistics conditions and lowering the number of operational aircraft with the majority of operational fighter aircraft being French 1920's types; these though available in numbers. Fine for training but not the equipment to defeat the topnotch Japanese airmen. (OTL)

With recent testing of equipment in local war conditions the Sovietunion lacking hard currency was eager to enter a Soviet – Chinese trade treaty selling military equipment and service facilities. At the same time the Soviets would supply the Chinese Communists with military equipment too though in limited quantities. (Without the Spanish goldreserve the Soviets have to find other means to stay in business)
Chiang Kai-Check knowing the Japanese might show up at any time though as long as the Red Army would be poised on the border of Manchouku and hostile he might get a breathing space. Checks problem being the warlords and Communists both of which were doing their own as long as no common enemy did show up. This put strains upon his regime and made it difficult for him to preserve the armed forces for the upcoming struggle even if delayed for the time being by the recent Soviet-Japanese War.
For the time being the major factor was getting the Gemans to train the Army and others such as Chennault to get the Airforce up to snuff. Though the majority of equipment was outdated some even without firearms it worked and did what it should to train his men and their minds.
Modern aircraft was available without any serious crisis in Europe as the British and French had been gearing up the past year but now seemed to relax; making some early French monoplane design such as the MS 405/6 available as not all was to be refurbished along new Armee de l'Air stipulations. Also available was some German fighter and bomber designs that had been discontinued due to experiences in the Yugoslavian War. Not that the Germans had take part but with their present change of inventory due to the effective abandonment of Versailles Treaty a lot had become available at reasonably prices.
As Chennault did point out it was still a logistics nightmare but at least equipment was slowly updated.

Some European powers had followed the Soviet-Japanese conflict intensely. The Dutch had seen the Japanese Airforces highly capable and the Army able to stop the Soviet Tank Army though at very high cost. The war at sea had been very interesting; the Japanese didn't seem capable of hunting down Soviet Submarines though the surface force was very impressive.
That was also a lesson learned in the USA.
The Dutch decided to go ahead with their new fighter for the colonies the Fokker D-XXI with fixed undercarriage just like the main Japanese types. Also the Dutch decided to upgrade its Submarine Flotilla in the Far East; fighting the Japanese on the surface didn't really appeal to the coffers of the Dutch Treasury.
The Poles was worried that the Japanese had to field such large an Army to stop the Soviet Tanks. That made the Poles sleep uneasy and as they were outfitting the Cavalry with Anti-Tank guns to have a mobile force to combat tanks but would need more.

Colonialism
Britain retreat its Armed Forces in Egypt to the Canal Zone as agreed to in the 1936 Agreement with the Kingdom of Egypt and Ceylon/Sri Lanka is given a constitution.
France kept a firm grib on its colonies funneling economic means into developing the North African possessions run by Frenchmen which sent the Arab and Toareg populations out to the fringes of society and economic sustainability. Even if the excesses of North Africa didn't worry Paris the actions in Central Africa to rule the colonies by subjugation of the populace did.
Even the Sovietunion in its Central Asian areas seemed to be following a kind of colonial policy akin the French in since 1928 establishing industry and streamlining production to be able to combat both Western and Eastern Threats – Capitalist Britain and France revancist Germany and Fascist Japan. Stalin would point to that this policy of mobilizing society against outside enemies had paid off in the victory over Japan.

[575]

If anybody is thinking Italy and Libyan oil - well its coming up soon. Have some ideas to stuff in the longer run as a consequece but far from all.

[575]

1938 (not the year You know but something rather different though with traces of OTL)
Nordic
During a trip to the USA during 1936 prof. Niels Bohr had been asked by a journalist when an atomic bomb would be possible.
There had in successive years been some talk of this in academic circles but not much had come of it. German scientists had done work on the splitting of the atom working on a deuterium basis but not achieving much headway and at some point Bohr during this year had been adressed by German scientist Werner Heisenberg who had vaguely sketched the outline of producing an atomic bomb on the basis of fission recently detected. Bohr being the man he was had become aware of the news and had privately become convinced that an atomic bomb would be possible but would require extraordinary fiscal means to build. Fiscal means not available in Europe or the USA. The Sovietunion however might be another kettle of fish but Bohr suspected the Soviets unable to build any such in a foreseeable future.
Anyway Bohr did discuss matters with Premier Stauning asking him to inform other heads of state possibly even taking the issue to the League of Nations. Stauning had thanked the great man for the information and then went into himself on the matter.
Stauning well knew – controrary to popular belief - that Bohr was quite aware of fiscals having to do bookwork to run his academy of quantum research at Copenhagen and asking Government of funds necessary.
Initially Stauning decided that Bohr was to get all the funding he could spare to make possible more research into fission and how to build fisson bombs; not to build the bomb as Bohr outline was prohibitive to this for Denmark to undertake. However seeing Germany even democratic Germany building a fission bomb wasn't deemed impossible by Stauning as Germany still being very limited due to economic crisis and French adversity to develop a real deterrent to the Sovietunion and the recent Soviet going East certainly seemed to cement this viewpoint.
Stauning didn't want to go to the French or British at the moment but the other Nordic countries might at some time – as had happened at other times – be caught up in the developments among the greater powers and no be able to deter such.
Stauning thought it relevant to invite his Nordic counterparts Premiers of Norway Sweden and Finland for a talk on the subject and try find an internordic approach to the issue. Better prepare for a peacefull tomorrow when peace still reigns than wait till its too late. Stauning didn't want to go public on the matter but would of course support the upcoming fiscal negotiations on science based on the international acclaim of Bohrs Copenhagen School and national importance in keeping the position. That would secure the Conservatives and Liberals vote of consent. Not a bad start.

Italy
Italy begin the originally fascist scheme to settle poor Italian peasants in Cyrenaika instead of seeing these go to USA or a French North African Colony to ease tensions in homeland. The most important part of the scheme is the drilling of waterwells to allow agriculture as the colonists know it. The byproduct is the search for oil which Desio this year plans for extending into the East of the colony in the land around the Great Syrte Bay. However funds are still limited though the settling for colonists in the area calls for more drilling of waterwells.
The plan for conquest of Abyssinia have been shelved; Italy can't develop Cyrenaika AND run an aggressive war simultanously. Much to the regret of some but for the time politicians do listen to economists advice.
The rebuilding of the Italian Armed Forces is still in the making though the Army is building its divisions up to strength though only Infantry. The projected Armoured and Motorized formations for the time being is restricted to a few Brigade size formations.
The big bleeding hole is the Airforce; the French are fielding new fighter aircraft in hundreds and ever bigger and faster bombers something out of reach of Italy in its current state. However the Italians have at the moment an ace up their sleeve; work on a prototype jetpowered aircraft is moving forward.

Far East
Stalin purges of Politbureau and Army has been reported by a NKVD General who had defected to the Japanese. The Japanese had been eager to dissipate the news to other countries to secure its position with the anti-Soviet powers of Europe and pave the way for expansion.
There was of course concerns voiced among foreign office and Military about the position of the USA which seemed to have squarely taken side with the Chinese but also the Germans who were heavily engulfed in building up Chinese Military capabilities though in no way comparable to Japans endeavour. The USA seemed too enmeshed in economic problems to take action on behalf of China and not being a member of the League of Nations wouldn't be expected to act in concert with any such. That ought to rule out two major troublemakers.
Partly by political direction partly by independent action by the Kwantung Army Japan invade China.
Soon the German Military Mission to China headed by General Falkenhausen coordinate defence. Since the Soviet-Japanese War the previous year the GMMtC had been much enlarged with a number of German officers from both Army and Navy the latter working from the principle of the inferior as during WWI against the Royal Navy and was much welcomed by Chaing Kai-Chek though his Admirals still felt starved of funds and means did approve of some infusion of advisors with much needed war experience.
The GMMtC strongly adviced to build cadres of as well trained troops as possible and then add recruits as they became available to build up the Chinese divisions. The German preference of peasants to fill the ranks and file and exclude industrial workers had much resonance with the Chinese Generals that had millions of peasant available for service but hardly any industrial workers to draw from; anyway the industrial workers were much too important in building the Chinese industry to pull them out and ruin any prospective supply and maintenance of Army and Navy ordenance available.
This new German led Chinese Army proved to be a tough nut for the Kwantung Army to crack; not up to Soviet Infantry standard but surprisingly close.
Just as the Kwantung Army seemed to have driven back the most experienced Chinese Border Divisions which had benefitted from several years of occasional Japanese and Manchouko incursions the Soviet Union attacked Manchouko. Truly the Japanese had withheld substantial numbers of troops among these the few tank companies to guard the Soviets but even then the Japanese recorded the increased strength of the Chinese adversary.
Japan soon redirected troops from fighting the Chinese to try stop the Soviet attack in the western desert only to see a second Soviet attack across the Amur river north of the Soviet defensive complex at Vladivostok.
As the world wondered at the reinvigorated Red Army thought to be at its knees due to the recent purges of its Officers Corps the Chinese took advantage of the situation. For almost a month the still kept secret Chinese Armoured Brigade had moved from Central China along roads but mainly waterways up north east towards the Manchouko border. Its movement remained undetected due to the Soviet attack which soon engulfed the Japanese Army Airforce even if amble units were kept south to keep the small Chinese Airforce contained.
Moving up from Beijing towards Jehol to reinforce the Infantry Corps holding the frontline the licencebuildt Landsverk L-60 outfitted Armoured Brigade and motorized infantry punched a hole in the Japanese frontline rolling up an entire Japanese infantry regiment.
Japanese Goverment taking the reins asked the USA to mediate a ceasefire between it and China so that all resources could be thrown at the Soviets which purges or not had troops moving south of the Amur river from Heiho towards Chenching and the mountains where a defensive line were frantically being built.
Having made way up to Jehol and the banks of Luan River the Chinese were only too happy to enter a ceasefire keeping their gains and set about digging trenches and fortified positions.
Stalin however made much noise of the bourgeouis Chinese Government only intent on furthering its position and not caring about losses of peasant soldiers; in the end Stalin too agreed to a ceasefire on status quo.
The Japanese now with a Soviet presence south of the Amur in the north of Machuoko and in the Western Desert as well as a Chinese presence north of the Wall drew a breath of relief but were also angered at once again being put in place and this time a worse one than the year before. The Soviets needed be survielled 24/7; and a sharp eye kept on the Chinese.

[stevep]

   Interesting. So more tension in NE Asia with Japan between a rock and a hard place in a stronger China and a still quite aggressive USSR.  With losses of part of its Manchurian puppet things are now fragile for them.  Also its likely to mean the army gets priority over the navy, which will reduce tension in more southern regions.

  Which makes me think.  Is the naval treaty regime still in place and if so are the Japanese still secretly breaching it?  With Germany much less aggressive and Japan distracted there is likely to be less pressure for a new race but Britain especially needs new ships to replace its elderly units.  Possibly there's more interest in the British proposal for a 12" limit although I can't see Japan going for it and possibly not Italy or France.  Sorry if your already mentioned this and I've forgotten.

  Italy without the attack on Ethiopia is going to be less of a pariah although with Germany non fascist and the military coup in Spain defeated its a lot more isolated politically which is another reason for it to avoid upsetting the other European great powers.  Oil in Libya could change things somewhat but probably not in the short term.

  Not quite sure what's the cause of the French air programme, or is it just a reaction to Germany being released from restrictions?  Paris OTL was fairly deeply divided and very reluctant to spend on the military until Hitler became an increasingly clear threat.