A window of opportunity 1905

[stevep]

   Catching up but how important would Panama be to trade with the southern Dominions as wouldn't Suez be a better rout? - Unless that's blocked in some way. Must admit because the TL has been stalled I can't remember the details.

  Of course the Europeans, especially with a much better economic position without WWII, could do what they can to expand trade with areas such as Latin America.  Their likely significantly more prominent there anyway without the war and with them being better markets for the region.  Not to mention that someone could be pointing out to the people of Panama how much profit the US is making out of their territory.

[575]

Jul 31, 2023 18:07:25 GMT stevep said:

   Catching up but how important would Panama be to trade with the southern Dominions as wouldn't Suez be a better rout? - Unless that's blocked in some way. Must admit because the TL has been stalled I can't remember the details.

  Of course the Europeans, especially with a much better economic position without WWII, could do what they can to expand trade with areas such as Latin America.  Their likely significantly more prominent there anyway without the war and with them being better markets for the region.  Not to mention that someone could be pointing out to the people of Panama how much profit the US is making out of their territory.

The extra time was only for shipping out of East Oz and NZ - the shipping from West Oz by Suez would have no impediment. Suffice to say the Americans just hadn't the means in this regard to hit the Empire.

The situation is going to change soon.

[575]

1955
By Tet the new Vietnamese Republic could celebrate independence from France. Wanting to get off the Japanese hook Ho Chi Minh had wanted to negotiate the USA a lease of Cam Rahn Bay to the US Navy. Now with the fighting the Royals things was different. He had to call it off for the time being.

And just as Tet had passed China opened talks with Ho Chi Mihn about taking over Japans financing his fight i.e. playing a hand in rebuilding Indo China and as Ho had no Navy take over management of Cam Rahn Bay.
Ho outright rejected the Chinese only to see China offer the Royals support against Him!

To gather some kind of support Ho then turned to the USA which rejected supporting him though would consider a lease of Cam Rahn Bay when hostilies had been ended.
Ho then went to the LoN where he found support against the Chinese who was viewed as propping up reactionary Royals that only wanted to extord their peoples to continue their decadent lifestyle and the assembly reminded the Indo China Royals of the right of selfdetermination by the peoples. That last was welcomed by Ho though noting of substance to support his fight would come of it.

Without financial and arms backing Ho however continued his fight against the Royals who themselves had little interest in anything but retaining their lands and prerogatives which they managed with the meagre Chinese backing they themselves only agreed to be able to sustain themselves and fight off Ho till he would be ready to give in and come to talks.

Scandinavia
Denmark had some problems internally. Their much revered Nobel laureate Niels Bohr still wanted to share the secrets of the Nuclear bomb with other parties which the Government and the other Nordics were strongly adverse to.
The increased numbers of US Scientists visiting or working at Bohr's Faculty had become a pain. They knew the USA had the means to build the bomb – they just hadn't had the motivation so far. However the recent years of Trade War between the USA and the Imperial European Powers and some others too had shown that the USA might be going ahead.
Though just a minor partner in the mainly USA – Britain Trade War the Nordics began discussing how to get the USA and Britain to talk seriously.

As it was little incentive seemed to be around for anybody to use the bomb. The Nordics and their British and German “allies” had it.
The Sovietunion had split up into several states that usually was at war at some level with each other.
Japan had been defeated.
China was strong but far away.
The USA was building new Carriers and Bombers.

The “demonstrations” of the SAAB Jetbombers in Greenland might have been a little over the edge but the Nordics was always alert. And would remain so.

Initially the Nordics decided to hold talks with the British and Germans about the USA problem.

Netherlands
The Dutch had concluded that the power supporting the uprising in the NEI must be the USA perhaps by some kind of business proxy.
As the USA wasn't party to LoN and denied any attempts at discussing the matter Government to Government the Dutch consulted the Nordics who also had issues with the USA.
The Nordics were quite evasive on the subject which piqued the Dutch and they eventually managed to have the Nordics agree to that without the USA in LoN or some other multilateral forum things were at times way difficult to settle to satisfaction.
Not agreeing on anything else the Nordics would discuss the matter with Britain and Germany and suggest including the Netherlands.

As in France so in the Netherlands the participation in the War against Japan even if a minor Naval force had been drain on resources and finances mainly with the NEI oil export suffering from the insurrection. As the French the fight against the insurrectionist's was difficult to get to some kind of conclusion as the insurrectionist's seemed to just vanish when the Dutch tried getting at them. Into the Jungle or into the sea of Peoples – the latter in Java.
Conscription were suffering concientious objecting as losses mounted without any results to point to. Of course at times arms caches were discovered or insurrectionist's killed or captured but it seemed nothing to compare to the effort by Dutch Armed Forces in NEI.
Nobody wanting to help out usually for being themselves tied down with insurrections or not feeling compelled to take part wellwishes was usually the best to obtain.

As the insurrection dragged on towards the close of its fifth year the Dutch situation looked gloomy.
They were an arms producer and able to procure arms from other nations but everything had to be paid for and during these years funds had shrunk with the shriking of oil output in NEI.
Not only were it an economic strain but also a societal one. With numbers of killed and wounded still rising and in a longer timespan of conflict than anybody could remember the Dutch public as a whole was resenting of the war and just wanting out.

France
The War in North Africa was still going badly; the troops objections to service was clear to anybody wanting to look though few wanted to do so.
It was a trail of mutineers that opened the eyes of the public to the situation.
At the end of trail with the mutineers clearly guilty was sentenced to Capital Punishment the country led by parents and other family of the convicted took to the streets. In the second week of protests members of Parliament joined the protest.
Then as the appeal court was running so did protest's; with the appeal court finding the men once again guilty the crowds took to the streets.
Following a weeks protests the Army Generals had enough and with the Presidential pardon – made by a man wanting reelection – the Army rushed the executions through.

A week of mourning and burying the dead and then all hell broke lose – at first in Paris and then it spread all over the country with draftee's burning their draft cards and being arrested and imprisoned.
As the Police and even CRS - Companie Republicaine de Securite threw in the towel the Army moved into Paris to set an example.
Ordering the Army out and getting a No the President told the Generals and Nation that a military coup had overthrown the elected President, his Government and the National Assembly.
By now the Army were at the end of the line – all shops in France closed – and as the French troops rejected shooting at the public the Foreign Legion was brought in from North Africa.

A week followed with Paris the major battlefield before the Foreign Legion surrendered was disarmed and returned to North Africa and demobilized.

An oddly quiet re-elected President told the French that the Civil War was over – France had been fighting itself. Troops of the Foreign Legion was expulsed to their homelands where quite a number had to do time in jail having fled justice years before.
The National Assembly began discussing how to end the War in North Africa and what to become of the French living there.
Things didn't calm of course – within a forthnight the Political Parties of the National Assembly was at each others throats over budget and what to offer the Algirians as well as what could be negotiated with Tunesia and Morocco.

[stevep]

Jul 31, 2023 19:00:38 GMT 575 said:

Jul 31, 2023 18:07:25 GMT stevep said:

   Catching up but how important would Panama be to trade with the southern Dominions as wouldn't Suez be a better rout? - Unless that's blocked in some way. Must admit because the TL has been stalled I can't remember the details.

  Of course the Europeans, especially with a much better economic position without WWII, could do what they can to expand trade with areas such as Latin America.  Their likely significantly more prominent there anyway without the war and with them being better markets for the region.  Not to mention that someone could be pointing out to the people of Panama how much profit the US is making out of their territory.

The extra time was only for shipping out of East Oz and NZ - the shipping from West Oz by Suez would have no impediment. Suffice to say the Americans just hadn't the means in this regard to hit the Empire.

The situation is going to change soon.

  That last bit sounds ominous.  I wonder if the US will be seeking to destabilize the ME and Anglo-French influence there?

[575]

Jul 31, 2023 19:54:00 GMT stevep said:

Jul 31, 2023 19:00:38 GMT 575 said:

The extra time was only for shipping out of East Oz and NZ - the shipping from West Oz by Suez would have no impediment. Suffice to say the Americans just hadn't the means in this regard to hit the Empire.

The situation is going to change soon.

  That last bit sounds ominous.  I wonder if the US will be seeking to destabilize the ME and Anglo-French influence there?

Oh - no. Just look back one page at the bottom about US - Panama Canal tariff and Maths done.

Next post will be about this and a lot of other items - as much to refresh my own memory here.

[575]

1956
Cross Atlantic Negotiations
Why Copenhagen? Copenhagen was the city of easy going everythings allowed as long as You didn't carry a gun or acted violently! The Nordics had been taking the initiative and invited the USA.
Transport had been in the new SAAB 4-engine Jetairliner. The USAAF had urged to agree to go along as it wanted first hand reports of the aircraft which seemed a derivative of the SAAB Jetbomber. So a rather highranking USAAF Officer and a not so highranking aircraft Engineer Officer was appointed as party to the USA delegation. At take off from La Guardia, New York both were invited by the Captain of the Jetairliner to accompany him on his preflight inspection. Both of course agreed.

The Germans had accepted the invitation, the French for once had been head over heels for participating, the Italians had allowed themselves to be persuaded, the Spanish had accepted the invitation, the Czechs had asked and received an invitation. The British – the British had been defensive and not enthusiastic about inviting the US to talks – why they had opted out of international forums and ought to see the error of their ways. Though but had given in following a suitable period of being non-available.
The Little Mermaid, Tivoli, the Royal Palace and Niels Bohr had been obligatory as well as reception at Parliament.
The Danish hosts had arranged for a rather long dinner break during which the warm evening could be enjoyed when having dined in Tivoli and then drinks at some suitable Bar.
The first evening J. Robert Oppenheimer had been lost to the USA delegation – of course being able to engage in discussion with Niels Bohr was too much of a temptation.
BTW the French had arranged for the wines, Champagne and Cognac – they had apparently a box-car full in a closed section of Copenhagen Railway Station.

The US had been going over the maths of the 1953 Trade War once again – the figures were wrong. So lets talk to the infidel Imperialist's and little brother Republican.

The British found the regulations of Panama Canal tariffs a late needed correction and that was about it.
The French being badly off economically threw themselves in the hands of the USA regarding rearranging their Colonial Empire. That would leave a sure mark of the USA in French speaking Africa.
The Germans just wanted a green light in South America and would willingly let the USA into the Baltic. From there the US would have to find a way into the Russia's.

The Nordics picked up the glove and asked the USA to enter LoN. The LoN needing it – there was too much going on in the world that needed a common front by the Western World. China had begun going its own way which was to be expected but the recent involvement in Indo China and Central Asia as well as Siberia would have implications.
The Turks was competing with the Chinese in Central Asia and with the weak Russian states seemed to be gaining the upper hand – China had always been rife with corruption and old traits seemed to have resurfaced. The US trying to get into Siberia might have noticed this too?

The Italians agreed that they had let the Turks off the hook cheaply but Balkan had seemed so promising. At this the British snorted – it takes a lot more than own oil to be a Great Power.

The British finally emerged from Olympia; yes the Turks was busy in Central Asia but the Chinese were there too and in numbers. Also the Russian Republic was acting as the Turks weren't there which might trigger something. The real Turk objective being Baku that was denied them by British presence in Persia and Georgia. To the joy of the Azerbajani who wanted to be left alone and prosper – which they did.
Having left Xinkiang the British still had information from the area – the Chinese as already mentioned had taken to their old habit of corruption and the Turks had been using this to get into the borderlands of Xinkiang. Though being in control of the east coastlands and central China the west was about to go as loose as before. Siberian Republic didn't seem a problem as it had relations with the Russian Republic and no problems with China though the Chinese might have some ancient wantings in Siberia unfulfilled the recent war had satiated the regime for the time being. Chinese involvement in Indo China was expected to be of short duration as the British expected Ho Chi Minh to make peace with the Royals to present the Chinese with a united front and kick them out.
Ho was still confused about where to find finances – but as he had asked the USA at an earlier time he might again. With communism a dead corpse he should be needing guidance.
Seemed the Italians were the only ones to be able to hold onto a colony but with the disruption in population figures this might not surprise. However getting the locals into the work force seemed a way to go – as long as they felt financially safe and as equals.
The latter was of course a problem in South Africa and Rhodesia but the former was seeing some change slow but going. At least they weren't shooting at each other as in Yugoslavia which was surely breaking up.

The US agreed to not hampering trade with the South Americans or in the Western Hemisphere as such and were happy being let in in other places. A worldwide trade agreement was proposed. The Panama Canal tariffs would be reworked but the US would like input to this.
The US wasn't interested in a Nuclear Arms race but was intent on developing the means if need be. And would prefer not having Nuclear armed bombers flying around the Northern Hemisphere.

The Nordics rejected doing such flights but the new bombers needed crews to operate in all possible areas of operations.
Dr. Bohrs Faculty was still open to Scientists of all nations as displayed and as Bohr had said himself.
The Nordics informed that it had in possession weapons of last ditch defence. With an unruly Europe and Russia fought on Nordic territory this had been deemed a necessity. They were sure other nations had such too.
To say the other nations were surprised and bewildered would be a mild understatement.
The Italians looked at the British and only said “aha”.

To get back on track the US thanked the Nordics for the information and then turned to the NEI. The US would do some armwringing though nothing would be certain; apparently some thought that Filibustering still had a place in this world. The Dutch might as well try reach a settlement with the insurgents.
The British informed the US that if it didn't succeed it wouldn't have to worry about any Trade Agreements and strongly advised the US to enter LoN. The age of rogue states seemed not to have ended.

[575]

1957
Death of Haakon 7. of Norway. Haakon is succeeded by his son Olav 5.

USA debate entry to LoN but don't reach a decision on joining.

Yugoslavia III Balkan War
In Yugoslavia or rather the remnants the Serbs continue fighting the Bulgarians and Macedonian nationalists which are being supported by the Greeks. To the spectator it may seem the Bulgaria and Greece have reached an understanding for partitioning Macedonia though nobody says so openly.
Germany is still supplying arms to Croatia and Slovenia though the latter is no longer a participant and have declared independence of Yugoslavia 1956.
Croatia declare independence and try negotiate Serbia for border demarcations though the fight is ongoing and spreading into Bosnia.
With the spreading of the civil war King Zog of Albania supported by Italian arms supply declare himself the defender of the Bosnia Muslims and enters the war.

Indo China
Fearing popular rejection of their rule the Indo Chinese Royals decide to take in Ho Chi Mihn and his supporters. Looking around for a supporter they approach the USA as a group. The US having seen the damage done to the French don't want to get involved in a fight and offers a trade agreement to still be able to work in the Chinese market. China is annoyed by this but as no new arms flow into Indo China it doesn't make a lot of it except some speeches at LoN where it calls Indo China “lawless territory” making the Indo Chinese Royals and Ho Chi Mihn negotiate a way into a federated Nation and ask for representation at LoN.

British Commonwealth
The British plan of a TV Network to include all Commonwealth countries is beginning to lose steam. The encryption of signal as well as linkstations range are the main worry as the technical means isn't around yet but the real problem is being addressed at the Commonwealth Conference in Ottawa, Canada.
If the TV conference is to run by British time it will start in London at 9AM local time thus the Canadians will be sitting down at 2PM which is satisfactory – of course depending upon time spent on subjects. The African members will be able to seat at around 8AM – at least the majority. India will have to rise early at 4AM while the New Zealanders will have a long night seating starting at 10PM and so too the Australians at 11PM.
The main protest is voiced by the Indians and Australians and the issue is shelved for the moment as a means of a conference change to realtime as the technical means isn't present and must await such to make it possible.
Another step could be reserving the TV Network as an information network in times of crisis which all nations approve.

Later during the year the plan surface in public as Conservative MP's see it as abolition of the Royal Prerogative as the transmitted conference would abolish the subjects of Empire hailing the Monarch in person. Which utterings make for strongly worded protest from India and most African Nations as a sign of white supremacy displayed.

The debate on the TV Network is taken up by a number of nations – Germany, Italy, the Nordics and USA as a means of spreading news globally though based instead on a satellite programme which would not need the cumbersome relay stations just one receiver in most nations.
Germany with its running interest in Rockets begin enlarging its test rockets to eventually carry an orbiting Satellite fitted out for transmitting radio and TV signals. Due to its size the Satellite will need a rather large battery that will need recharing in some way regularly or development of an onboard powerplant – possibly a Nuclear one.

[stevep]

Aug 4, 2023 17:27:34 GMT 575 said:

1957
Death of Haakon 7. of Norway. Haakon is succeeded by his son Olav 5.

USA debate entry to LoN but don't reach a decision on joining.

Yugoslavia III Balkan War
In Yugoslavia or rather the remnants the Serbs continue fighting the Bulgarians and Macedonian nationalists which are being supported by the Greeks. To the spectator it may seem the Bulgaria and Greece have reached an understanding for partitioning Macedonia though nobody says so openly.
Germany is still supplying arms to Croatia and Slovenia though the latter is no longer a participant and have declared independence of Yugoslavia 1956.
Croatia declare independence and try negotiate Serbia for border demarcations though the fight is ongoing and spreading into Bosnia.
With the spreading of the civil war King Zog of Albania supported by Italian arms supply declare himself the defender of the Bosnia Muslims and enters the war.

Indo China
Fearing popular rejection of their rule the Indo Chinese Royals decide to take in Ho Chi Mihn and his supporters. Looking around for a supporter they approach the USA as a group. The US having seen the damage done to the French don't want to get involved in a fight and offers a trade agreement to still be able to work in the Chinese market. China is annoyed by this but as no new arms flow into Indo China it doesn't make a lot of it except some speeches at LoN where it calls Indo China “lawless territory” making the Indo Chinese Royals and Ho Chi Mihn negotiate a way into a federated Nation and ask for representation at LoN.

British Commonwealth
The British plan of a TV Network to include all Commonwealth countries is beginning to lose steam. The encryption of signal as well as linkstations range are the main worry as the technical means isn't around yet but the real problem is being addressed at the Commonwealth Conference in Ottawa, Canada.
If the TV conference is to run by British time it will start in London at 9AM local time thus the Canadians will be sitting down at 2PM which is satisfactory – of course depending upon time spent on subjects. The African members will be able to seat at around 8AM – at least the majority. India will have to rise early at 4AM while the New Zealanders will have a long night seating starting at 10PM and so too the Australians at 11PM.
The main protest is voiced by the Indians and Australians and the issue is shelved for the moment as a means of a conference change to realtime as the technical means isn't present and must await such to make it possible.
Another step could be reserving the TV Network as an information network in times of crisis which all nations approve.

Later during the year the plan surface in public as Conservative MP's see it as abolition of the Royal Prerogative as the transmitted conference would abolish the subjects of Empire hailing the Monarch in person. Which utterings make for strongly worded protest from India and most African Nations as a sign of white supremacy displayed.

The debate on the TV Network is taken up by a number of nations – Germany, Italy, the Nordics and USA as a means of spreading news globally though based instead on a satellite programme which would not need the cumbersome relay stations just one receiver in most nations.
Germany with its running interest in Rockets begin enlarging its test rockets to eventually carry an orbiting Satellite fitted out for transmitting radio and TV signals. Due to its size the Satellite will need a rather large battery that will need recharing in some way regularly or development of an onboard powerplant – possibly a Nuclear one.

  Sounds like we could have a distinctly more complex space race here.  Plus would there be any agreement on limiting/banning weapons in space and how would that be enforced?

  Satellites would help but still a problem for a world spanning political system such as Britain has with the domionions and assorted dependencies and allies.  Need a lot more satellites and your still got the problem with time differences.

[575]

Aug 4, 2023 22:21:46 GMT stevep said:

Aug 4, 2023 17:27:34 GMT 575 said:

1957
Death of Haakon 7. of Norway. Haakon is succeeded by his son Olav 5.

USA debate entry to LoN but don't reach a decision on joining.

Yugoslavia III Balkan War
In Yugoslavia or rather the remnants the Serbs continue fighting the Bulgarians and Macedonian nationalists which are being supported by the Greeks. To the spectator it may seem the Bulgaria and Greece have reached an understanding for partitioning Macedonia though nobody says so openly.
Germany is still supplying arms to Croatia and Slovenia though the latter is no longer a participant and have declared independence of Yugoslavia 1956.
Croatia declare independence and try negotiate Serbia for border demarcations though the fight is ongoing and spreading into Bosnia.
With the spreading of the civil war King Zog of Albania supported by Italian arms supply declare himself the defender of the Bosnia Muslims and enters the war.

Indo China
Fearing popular rejection of their rule the Indo Chinese Royals decide to take in Ho Chi Mihn and his supporters. Looking around for a supporter they approach the USA as a group. The US having seen the damage done to the French don't want to get involved in a fight and offers a trade agreement to still be able to work in the Chinese market. China is annoyed by this but as no new arms flow into Indo China it doesn't make a lot of it except some speeches at LoN where it calls Indo China “lawless territory” making the Indo Chinese Royals and Ho Chi Mihn negotiate a way into a federated Nation and ask for representation at LoN.

British Commonwealth
The British plan of a TV Network to include all Commonwealth countries is beginning to lose steam. The encryption of signal as well as linkstations range are the main worry as the technical means isn't around yet but the real problem is being addressed at the Commonwealth Conference in Ottawa, Canada.
If the TV conference is to run by British time it will start in London at 9AM local time thus the Canadians will be sitting down at 2PM which is satisfactory – of course depending upon time spent on subjects. The African members will be able to seat at around 8AM – at least the majority. India will have to rise early at 4AM while the New Zealanders will have a long night seating starting at 10PM and so too the Australians at 11PM.
The main protest is voiced by the Indians and Australians and the issue is shelved for the moment as a means of a conference change to realtime as the technical means isn't present and must await such to make it possible.
Another step could be reserving the TV Network as an information network in times of crisis which all nations approve.

Later during the year the plan surface in public as Conservative MP's see it as abolition of the Royal Prerogative as the transmitted conference would abolish the subjects of Empire hailing the Monarch in person. Which utterings make for strongly worded protest from India and most African Nations as a sign of white supremacy displayed.

The debate on the TV Network is taken up by a number of nations – Germany, Italy, the Nordics and USA as a means of spreading news globally though based instead on a satellite programme which would not need the cumbersome relay stations just one receiver in most nations.
Germany with its running interest in Rockets begin enlarging its test rockets to eventually carry an orbiting Satellite fitted out for transmitting radio and TV signals. Due to its size the Satellite will need a rather large battery that will need recharing in some way regularly or development of an onboard powerplant – possibly a Nuclear one.

  Sounds like we could have a distinctly more complex space race here.  Plus would there be any agreement on limiting/banning weapons in space and how would that be enforced?

  Satellites would help but still a problem for a world spanning political system such as Britain has with the domionions and assorted dependencies and allies.  Need a lot more satellites and your still got the problem with time differences.

Agree on all points - I have thought stuff over a lot and at some point the powers had to talk. We haven't come near weapons talks as ITTL the Nordics are rejective of Bohr thoughts on sharing Nuclear Arms. Its a start.

When the TV issue is getting out its only natural I guess that others will think of how to do the thing - which is also on level of idea/planning. And yes world wide coverage by Satellites won't be tomorrow or next year.

As there have been no such thing as the GI-law there may not be the numbers of "brains" around to do the thing in OTL time scale. The bigger the pool to tap into the sooner the right ideas/solutions will come up.

That in itself will serve to cut back time. Also its dependant upon resources allocated hence why the British Empire might do the thing but running into limitations is only to be expected.

Of course there will be a problem with time difference so I expect in the end physical meetings to take place regularly possibly with briefed representatives like the UN of OTL and possibly the LoN at some time.

The nuclear powerplant was a hint at the Atomic-craze of the 50's.