A window of opportunity 1905

[575]

Russia 1951
The Russian Republic had defeated the Kazan Republic and had entered a trade agreement with Astrakhan to reopen the previous lake oil-shippingroute from Baku to the Volga and up said river to Kazan and Gorkij. Only problem being the Turks and the Siberian Republic; the former might need force to settle the issue the second should be negotiated.
Though due to the current ongoing Third Balkan War seeing Turkey at war with Italy and Greece that could be dealt with rather easily though it might come back to haunt the Russian Republic later.
For the time being the RR settled with its current territories gained – and trade deals with Astrakhan and Siberian republics. As long as the Turks were occupied at home they could do little in Central Asia or so the RR thought.

Problem was that the Turk Intelligence Service was highly active in Central Asia and in the Kalmyk Cossack Republic and viewed the Russian Republic's appearing on the scene most unwanted and disliked – the old Russian Empire vs Ottoman Empire rivalry.
For the moment the RR hadn't opened fire on the Kalmyk Cossack Republic which the Turks felt being the protector of as it made available a way across their steppe but that might only be a matter of time.
More seriously was expecting a Russian revival with the RR and Siberian republics joining force to rebuild the old Russia and then turn on Azerbadjan with Baku and the oil and of course Central Asia; Baku being the prize but Turkey being barred that as the British were still present in Mosul and Persia which was more than annoying.
For the time being the Turk Intelligence Service kept stirring up trouble in Central Asia to keep the Republics weak and the City States strong so as to be able to play everybody against each other when found desirable or necessary. Also some resources was directed into China's Xinjiang Province to stirr up trouble to keep the Chinese occupied. Even if the war with Italy and Greece sucked up resources a little was still diverted to the greater project.

[575]

Navies of 1951
Japan: 2 No13 Superdreadnoughts (Yamato's but the man ain't dead), 2 Battleships, 7 Battleships in reserve, 1 No13 Aircraft Carrier (rebuilding for operating Jet-aircraft), 5 Aircraft Carriers (3 maintenance), 3 Aircraft Carriers in rerserve, 18 Heavy Cruiser, 17 Light Cruiser.

Britain and Empire: 7 Aircraft Carriers, 15 Battleships, 3 Battlecruisers (1 RAN, 1 RNZN), 20 Heavy Cruiser (2 RAN), 48 Light Cruiser (2 RAN, 1 RNZN, 1 CAN).

USA: 7 Aircraft Carriers, 18 Battleships, 9 Battleships in reserve, 6 Large Heavy Cruisers, 32 Heavy Cruisers, 19 Light Cruisers.

France: 3 Aircraft Carriers (2 ATL Joffre Class enlarged), 4 Battleships, 4 Battleships in reserve, 4 Heavy Cruisers, 7 Light Cruisers.

Italy: 2 Battleships, 2 Battleships in reserve, 7 Heavy Cruisers, 10 Light Cruisers. 1 Aircraft Carrier building but stalled due to ongoing War in Turkey and Adriatic.

Netherlands: 5 Light Cruisers.

Nordics: 2 Heavy Cruisers/ Sweden, 3 Light Cruisers (1 Norway, 2 Denmark)

The Major Navies IJN, US, RN, Marine Nationale/Royale were all employing Fighter, Torpedobomber/Divebomber/Reconnaisance aircraft but also being employing Early Warning Aircraft. The aircraft being mainly pistonengined though all Navies being in a transitory state of rebuilding Aircraft Carriers to operate Jetaircraft the US and RN both having such units in training with the new Jets though still not operational. IJN converting its one major Aircraft Carrier which due to size would demand the least change to flight deck.
As such the initial operations of the upcoming War of French Alliance vs. Japan would see operations carried out by pistonengined aircraft.
As both sides were preparing for War the Navy bases in area of percieved conflict had been stocked with fuel and ammunition and Australian and New Zealand industry partly diverted to supply such; the Commonwealth Aircraft Factory in Australia had been ordered to produce sparparts and new aircraft to supply the RN FES and both Nations would procure supplies for Singapore.
Britain had also realized that its industrious Chinese subjects of Hong Kong was a valuable resource and had developed several defence related industries there to shorten the supply chain.
Having developed its industries in the Colonies little France was in a worse situation having to rely on shipments from home. The French had however been developing RADAR independently since the 1930's (OTL) and had set up such sites on the coast of FIC as well as equipping its surface units and reconnaisance aircraft with such.
Knowing that the Japanese had also been doing its own work on RADAR the French had been supplying RADAR equipment to China; also the Germans in their Military Industry support of China had begun building RADAR there – both to supply China but also to have a replacement supply of own forces.
The US had its own RADAR sites on outposts in the Marcus, Wake and Midway Is. as well as sites in the Aleutians and at the major base in Hawaii but also at Cape Bojeador in the Philippines south of Taiwan and of course at the major base at Subic Bay – both in Luzon Island.

[575]

1952
Nordics - and such
During January several seismic stations around the world related a possible earthquake in a otherwise seismic stable area of Central Australia.
The speculation continued for several months when a second seismic event also in Australia was detected.

The source of the seismic events were much debated in scientific circles and also the Intelligence communities had interest in such: in same area not seismic active occuring twice within a short time; too much for coincidence – suspicious to say the least.

Edit: Due to the seimic work done by Geologist Inge Lehmann working at the Geodetic Institute of Copenhagen who had discovered the P' waves as a result of the effect of the Murchison Earthquake 1929 and thus detected the hard core of Earth and her setting up of seismic stations in Denmark and Greenland it was decided to by the arguments of hers and the Geological Institute to make the Nuclear Tests underground. Niels Bohr had no reservations about this; Government however were much interested as secrecy was wanted but also some marker of whats going on might be advantagous to shield the real situation and lead those in the know onto whats happening.

Both the British and the German Governments were most pleased with the outcome of the nuclear tests;
the British had the third test bomb in Australia in a guarded facility in the most desolate outback. Germany had another in a mineshaft in Central Germany closely guarded in an old rumoured to be haunted forest – a Black one.

The Nordics had none at the moment but were refining the design according to testresults. At least 10 had been projected.

No official statements were made regarding the nuclear tests as that wasn't deemed necessary and might lead to other states wanting in on the programme or start increased intelligence operations in Scandinavia. The tests in and off themselves would be enough untill time to disclose the Project.

There had been much debate on where to conduct the tests; Germany had rejected any such on German territory because of population density; Denmark had brought up Greenland or an island close to it but the proposal had been discussed intensely and the outcome been that the USA might object strongly to such and increase the economic conflict with the Colonial Powers in the Western Hemisphere of which Denmark as well as Britain were part.
Northern Sweden or Finland or even Svalbard or Jan Mayen Is. had been proposed but the Norwegians rejected Svalbard due to the coalmining and were afraid Jan Mayen be too close to the North American Continent at least within the Western Hemisphere which had also ruled out Iceland; neighter Sweden nor Finland wanted their northern territories used for the test.
An underwater test had been proposed but as the visual effect was wanted to be observed Britain proposed a place in Australia called Woomera in the northern part of South Australia west of lakes Eyre and Torrens in the Great Victoria Desert. Australia had been consulted on the project and agreed in light of the current political situation in the Far East and perceived need for upscaling defences.

As nothing being officially revealed there was very little reported on it in open media but the Intelligence Organizations had busy days in trying to establish what had happened as had the Scientific Community.
As the latter was dominated by Geologists nobody went to ask the Physicists; surely Niels Bohr wasn't bothered in any way at his Copenhagen Faculty.

[stevep]

Jan 6, 2023 16:46:52 GMT 575 said:

1952
Nordics - and such
During January several seismic stations around the world related a possible earthquake in a otherwise seismic stable area of Central Australia.
The speculation continued for several months when a second seismic event also in Australia was detected.

The source of the seismic events were much debated in scientific circles and also the Intelligence communities had interest in such: in same area not seismic active occuring twice within a short time; too much for coincidence – suspicious to say the least.

Both the British and the German Governments were most pleased with the outcome of the nuclear tests;
the British had the third test bomb in Australia in a guarded facility in the most desolate outback. Germany had another in a mineshaft in Central Germany closely guarded in an old rumoured to be haunted forest – a Black one.

The Nordics had none at the moment but were refining the design according to testresults. At least 10 had been projected.

No official statements were made regarding the nuclear tests as that wasn't deemed necessary and might lead to other states wanting in on the programme or start increased intelligence operations in Scandinavia.

There had been much debate on where to conduct the tests; Germany had rejected any such on German territory because of population density; Denmark had brought up Greenland or an island close to it but the proposal had been discussed intensely and the outcome been that the USA might object strongly to such and increase the economic conflict with the Colonial Powers in the Western Hemisphere of which Denmark as well as Britain were part.
Northern Sweden or Finland or even Svalbard or Jan Mayen Is. had been proposed but the Norwegians rejected Svalbard due to the coalmining and were afraid Jan Mayen be too close to the North American Continent at least within the Western Hemisphere which had also ruled out Iceland; neighter Sweden nor Finland wanted their northern territories used for the test.
An underwater test had been proposed but as the visual effect was wanted to be observed Britain proposed a place in Australia called Woomera in the northern part of South Australia west of lakes Eyre and Torrens in the Great Victoria Desert. Australia had been consulted on the project and agreed in light of the current political situation in the Far East and perceived need for upscaling defences.

As nothing being officially revealed there was very little reported on it in open media but the Intelligence Organizations had busy days in trying to establish what had happened as had the Scientific Community.
As the latter was dominated by Geologists nobody went to ask the Physicists; surely Niels Bohr wasn't bothered in any way at his Copenhagen Faculty.

  575,

  Just to clarify please Germany has carried out its own test underground in the Black Forest area but is refusing to allow similar access for a Scandinavia test?  However it sounds like their made an agreement with Britain and Australia for one there?

  Since we get seismic readings from the British tests in Australia does that mean their underground?  Which would avoid immediate fall-out but mean a lot more radiated material is created underground and could be a problem later.  As I understand it this wasn't a problem realised at the time so I don't know how quickly the people in TTL will become aware of it and what problems it might cause.  The big issue would be if any significant amounts got into underground water.

[575]

Jan 7, 2023 12:47:38 GMT stevep said:

Jan 6, 2023 16:46:52 GMT 575 said:

1952
Nordics - and such
During January several seismic stations around the world related a possible earthquake in a otherwise seismic stable area of Central Australia.
The speculation continued for several months when a second seismic event also in Australia was detected.

The source of the seismic events were much debated in scientific circles and also the Intelligence communities had interest in such: in same area not seismic active occuring twice within a short time; too much for coincidence – suspicious to say the least.

Both the British and the German Governments were most pleased with the outcome of the nuclear tests;
the British had the third test bomb in Australia in a guarded facility in the most desolate outback. Germany had another in a mineshaft in Central Germany closely guarded in an old rumoured to be haunted forest – a Black one.

The Nordics had none at the moment but were refining the design according to testresults. At least 10 had been projected.

No official statements were made regarding the nuclear tests as that wasn't deemed necessary and might lead to other states wanting in on the programme or start increased intelligence operations in Scandinavia.

There had been much debate on where to conduct the tests; Germany had rejected any such on German territory because of population density; Denmark had brought up Greenland or an island close to it but the proposal had been discussed intensely and the outcome been that the USA might object strongly to such and increase the economic conflict with the Colonial Powers in the Western Hemisphere of which Denmark as well as Britain were part.
Northern Sweden or Finland or even Svalbard or Jan Mayen Is. had been proposed but the Norwegians rejected Svalbard due to the coalmining and were afraid Jan Mayen be too close to the North American Continent at least within the Western Hemisphere which had also ruled out Iceland; neighter Sweden nor Finland wanted their northern territories used for the test.
An underwater test had been proposed but as the visual effect was wanted to be observed Britain proposed a place in Australia called Woomera in the northern part of South Australia west of lakes Eyre and Torrens in the Great Victoria Desert. Australia had been consulted on the project and agreed in light of the current political situation in the Far East and perceived need for upscaling defences.

As nothing being officially revealed there was very little reported on it in open media but the Intelligence Organizations had busy days in trying to establish what had happened as had the Scientific Community.
As the latter was dominated by Geologists nobody went to ask the Physicists; surely Niels Bohr wasn't bothered in any way at his Copenhagen Faculty.

  575 ,

  Just to clarify please Germany has carried out its own test underground in the Black Forest area but is refusing to allow similar access for a Scandinavia test?  However it sounds like their made an agreement with Britain and Australia for one there?

  Since we get seismic readings from the British tests in Australia does that mean their underground?  Which would avoid immediate fall-out but mean a lot more radiated material is created underground and could be a problem later.  As I understand it this wasn't a problem realised at the time so I don't know how quickly the people in TTL will become aware of it and what problems it might cause.  The big issue would be if any significant amounts got into underground water.

No the Germans and British just keep their bombs in safety - just in case.

Well I remembered a Danish scientist Inge Lehmann - Geologist and Seismologist working in Earthquakes and asked to work in the US during the 1950s where she also noted the seismic effects of Nuclear tests hence the underground tests - should have been more explicit on this, will edit.

No real regard on fallout at the moment as it isn't realized.

[575]

Third Balkan War 1952
The Greek - Italian Alliance was apparently dissolved though Greece still being supplied by the Italians who didn't want to pull the carpet under their ally completely – just wanting to get the War in Turkey wrapped up and turn to matters closer to home where the Germans were beginning to show more muscle. Greece keep going for a few months then entered negotiations with Turkey engineered by Italy; Greece keeping its gains in Anatolia.
Britain had used the reopened Straits to negotiate a trade deal with Georgia including a Navy base on the Black Sea at Poti as the Turks had occupied Batumi years previously. Slowly the British were building up the Base with a Shore Contingent of RN Marines and a few FAA ground support squadrons. It might seem a bit cheeky but the Turks were in no position to protest as the British hadn't pulled their troops out of the Middle East Mandate Area (Mosul!) and were still operating in Tabriz area of Persia to the east of Turkey and south of Azerbajdjan.

In Yugoslavia Slovenia was rejecting Italian proposals of trade and access to its infrastructure to resupply Hungaria (last not stated of course).
The Croats and Serbs were still fighting it out; as Slovenia stabilized Germany began supplying Croatia through that nation enabling the Croats to keep up the fight. As the Italians protested the German action Germany and Austria entered joint Army and Airforce manouevres in the Alpes just to bring the message home – that served its purpose.
What really kept the Croats alive at this time was the Serbs having to fight the Bulgarians in the east as well as a resurgent Macedonian uprising belived to be supported by the Greeks or Italians or both; also Kosovo would see a surge of insurrection supported through King Zog's Albania from Italy. Not wanting to cross swords with the Germans the Italians had moved their activity south.

[575]

Far East 1952
The Japanese had sensed something brewing and had decided to strike first not wanting to be taken by surprise. They had counted on the Chinese planning to invade Taiwan and had been building up forces there; building more Airbases and improving the port of Kirun on the northern point of the island.
The Penghu Islands in the Formosa Strait had also seen reinforcement and bunkers build overlooking the western approaches.

In the Japanese Isles the port cities of Nagasaki and Hiroshima had seen an influx of IJN warships lately and lots of IJN activity as well as build up of stores. The locals of the two cities were only happy as it meant more spending in their cities both directly by servicemen but also by Navy requisitioning which would benefit the local service sector.
IJN Command was a little annoyed as its largest Aircraft Carrier had been taken out of service for rebuilding for Jet-Aircraft operations and another three was undergoing extensive repairs or other needed maintenance.
The Navy Airforce was also in a transitory state as the new jetpropulsed Nakajima J11a was being phased in as a combined fighter and attack aircraft which was the reason for rebuilding the Carrier. The new jet was the fourth prototype for the Navy and looked very promising; the next project would be training Navy Pilots for jet operations on a Carrier which had made it imperative to take the large modern Carrier out of service for rebuilding and initiating operations training.
Of the five other Carriers three was in reserve at the moment as was the case with the majority of the old Dreadnoughts which left only two operational Carriers.

As had been the case for a long time modern Japan had problems with its lack of almost everything locally be it metals, rubber, coal or oil.
To extend the Army had relied on local produce or import from Poland but since the Polish – Soviet War that source had more or less dried out as the Poles were still rebuilding their Eastern Provinces and resupply its own Armed Forces leaving little for export at the time and not in the quantity wanted by Japan.
The Japanese Army Airforce was also in transition to Jetaircraft at the time though the majority of aircraft as in the Navy were still pistonengined.

However the reports from the Seismic Institute of Japan had made the Security Service look for causes; something British brewing? Better move first.
Related to the apparent Chinese buildup in Fukien Province across the Formosa Strait it made the Japanese uneasy and talks began of preempting the Chinese and their allies – if any.
The logical would be a jump across Tsushima Strait to Korea to divert Chinese attention from Taiwan and deliver a blow to not just the Chinese but also the Western Nations in the area – Britain, France, Germany and the Netherlands though only Germany had any troops in Korea supported by Britain and France.
China might be strong but it had moved substantial Army units from eastern China to Xinkiang Province due to the unrest in Central Asia. It also maintained a couple of Armies on the border to FIC and a couple of Armies in Manchuria to guard the border with the Far Eastern Republic and the Korean border. The latter most likely to counter any Japanese landings.
In Korea was a German Army Brigade and Airforce Squadrons as well as a few Navy light units.
The major Navy adversary in area was the RN Far East Squadron with units from Britain, Australia and New Zealand as well as the occasional Canadian ships.
The French had some older Dreadnoughts in French Indo China as well as light units and the Chinese a Coastal Navy of Cruisers and other light units – nothing to worry about. The Chinese Submarines was few in numbers and nothing like the former Soviet Submarine force.
If something was brewing it would be time to strike first.

[575]

Japanese assault 1952
Japanese Amphibious Troops were sailing from Hiroshima and Nagasaki landing in Korea in early March – to defeat the German force there. IJN deployed Parachute troops that encircled the forward German units and forced a retreat ensuring the landing of Amphibious Troops.
As the Japanese advanced the German pulled back north to Taegu in the east and Kwangju in the west though the Kwangju position were soon left due to a IJN landing of Amphibious troops at Kunsan up the western coast.
The Germans were able to hold Iri inland of Kunsan to pull its troops out of Kwangju and establish a new defence line Iri – Taegu – P'hang on the east coast.
One of the Chinese Armies in Manchuria were moved into Korea to bolster up defences by building a line south of Seoul across the Peninsular while combat formations were railed south to reinforce the German defenders.
The Japanese had expected a tough fight from the Germans though got more than they had asked for; following the initial setbacks the Germans rallied and began digging in Great War style in mutually supporting positions. Sharing small arms and artillery rounds with the Chinese Army munitions soon found its way to the defenders from Manchuria.
As the Japanese continued shipping troops to Korea the German defenders eventually was overrun in their positions though taking a serious toll on the attacker only to be stopped by the Chinese Army in its trenches south of Seoul.
At that time part of the German Military Mission to China had upped from Beijing to set up a Corps HQ base in Seoul to be able to funnel reinforcements and supplies to their troops once it arrived.

Simultanously with the attack on Korea the IJN launched a preemptive strike on Royal Navy Far Eastern Squadron (RN FES) at the Bismarck Archipelago in New Britain; actually the old small German base that had been enlarged to serve the much larger Squadron.
The Japanese had sent their 2 active and 1 mobilized Aircraft Carrier along the Superdreadnoughts and 2 mobilized Battleships and a strong force of light units which also carried a landing force to attack the RN FES.
British Radar at Mussau Island part of St. Mattias Is. picket up the advancing IJN coming south from the base at Truk Is in the Carolinas and alerted the RN FES which sortied to meet the incoming.
In the ensuing battle that turned out due to radar to be mainly fought in the air out of artillery range both sides lost one Carrier the other damaged. Being able to control damage the surviving RN Carrier along land based Aircraft was able to launch another strike on the Japanese which damaged the third Carrier and forced the IJN to retreat. Due to damage the RN FES retreated to New Britain for repairs.
Assuming the IJN still have Carriers activating the RN FES is on the run with the damaged RN Carrier sailing off to Singapore for repairs; the Carrier would be able to rejoin the RN FES three months later.
The Japanese force had to sink one damaged Carrier when trying to tow it back to base due to the crews inability to limit and repair the damage. At the time nothing was known on the Allied side of this so a lot of effort was used in making up numbers in land based Aircraft in New Britain and New Guinea to match the missing Japanese Carrier and deter new Japanese attacks.

Along the attacks on Korea and RN FES the Japanese Army conducted air raids on Chinese port cities along the Formosa Strait to make these inoperational to the Chinese in the awaited Amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

[stevep]

Jan 9, 2023 13:18:43 GMT 575 said:

Japanese assault 1952
Japanese Amphibious Troops were sailing from Hiroshima and Nagasaki landing in Korea in early March – to defeat the German force there. IJN deployed Parachute troops that encircled the forward German units and forced a retreat ensuring the landing of Amphibious Troops.
As the Japanese advanced the German pulled back north to Taegu in the east and Kwangju in the west though the Kwangju position were soon left due to a IJN landing of Amphibious troops at Kunsan up the western coast.
The Germans were able to hold Iri inland of Kunsan to pull its troops out of Kwangju and establish a new defence line Iri – Taegu – P'hang on the east coast.
One of the Chinese Armies in Manchuria were moved into Korea to bolster up defences by building a line south of Seoul across the Peninsular while combat formations were railed south to reinforce the German defenders.
The Japanese had expected a tough fight from the Germans though got more than they had asked for; following the initial setbacks the Germans rallied and began digging in Great War style in mutually supporting positions. Sharing small arms and artillery rounds with the Chinese Army munitions soon found its way to the defenders from Manchuria.
As the Japanese continued shipping troops to Korea the German defenders eventually was overrun in their positions though taking a serious toll on the attacker only to be stopped by the Chinese Army in its trenches south of Seoul.
At that time part of the German Military Mission to China had upped from Beijing to set up a Corps HQ base in Seoul to be able to funnel reinforcements and supplies to their troops once it arrived.

Simultanously with the attack on Korea the IJN launched a preemptive strike on Royal Navy Far Eastern Squadron (RN FES) at the Bismarck Archipelago in New Britain; actually the old small German base that had been enlarged to serve the much larger Squadron.
The Japanese had sent their 2 active and 1 mobilized Aircraft Carrier along the Superdreadnoughts and 2 mobilized Battleships and a strong force of light units which also carried a landing force to attack the RN FES.
British Radar at Mussau Island part of St. Mattias Is. picket up the advancing IJN coming south from the base at Truk Is in the Carolinas and alerted the RN FES which sortied to meet the incoming.
In the ensuing battle that turned out due to radar to be mainly fought in the air out of artillery range both sides lost one Carrier the other damaged. Being able to control damage the surviving RN Carrier along land based Aircraft was able to launch another strike on the Japanese which damaged the third Carrier and forced the IJN to retreat. Due to damage the RN FES retreated to New Britain for repairs.
Assuming the IJN still have Carriers activating the RN FES is on the run with the damaged RN Carrier sailing off to Singapore for repairs; the Carrier would be able to rejoin the RN FES three months later.
The Japanese force had to sink one damaged Carrier when trying to tow it back to base due to the crews inability to limit and repair the damage. At the time nothing was known on the Allied side of this so a lot of effort was used in making up numbers in land based Aircraft in New Britain and New Guinea to match the missing Japanese Carrier and deter new Japanese attacks.

Along the attacks on Korea and RN FES the Japanese Army conducted air raids on Chinese port cities along the Formosa Strait to make these inoperational to the Chinese in the awaited Amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

  Well Japan is already in trouble.  Going to war with so many nations is going to cause serious problems.  Especially when one of the nations is Britain which controls the main routes for supply to Japan via Malaya.  Coupled with that the defeat off New Britain greatly reduces their ability to make further offensives while the allies will only increase in strength.  Plus I suspect the Dutch will support the other Europeans and Chinese  which means no supply from the DEI.  The same problem in the north in that China has far more men than Japan even if they may not have the same quality.  Coupled with the multiple allies they will have Japan is likely to be both outnumbered and as its economy declines outclassed.

  Of course if the Japanese understood what those Seismic events were they would probably have avoided war at all costs.  Not sure given the different circumstances how willing Britain would be to use nukes against Japanese military or civilian targets or how close they actually are to a deliverable device.  [Without actually being in a shooting war until this moment its likely that plans for a deliverable capability would be markedly slower than the OTL gap between the Trinity test and Hiroshima].  Of course if a nuke is used then every nuclear programme in the world goes into overdrive!

  The other big unknown would be the stance of the US.  If its politically hostile enough to the Europeans it could seek to supply economic aid to Japan but whether it would do that and with what degree of internal political support that would have.  If their angered by the Japanese attacks on other powers and are willing to embargo trade with Japan then a Japanese collapse could be pretty damned quick.  Well unless the allies insist on unconditional surrender or an occupation of Japan itself.

[575]

Japans in trouble or fear it is which is the reason for its striking first - of course due to the story we know about Japanese training in certain areas this isn't a sensible thing to do. However the US is still selling to Japan - getting stuff to Japan, well I do have some thoughts about it - the US just isn't ready to pull the carpet from under them - as long as payment is delivered. This is an area still worked on.
Britain haven't made their own specific delivery means for their bomb which is still in Oz. It would be a Strategic Bomber. The Nordics have had SAAB build a jet-engined Strategic Bomber as their means of delivery - nobody is really into rocketry ITTL.
Japanese collapse - well perhaps; its still up in the air though I do have some thought.

[575]

Casus belli for French alliance 1952
French and Allied Navies want to move through the Suez Canal which King Farouk rejects – though the British still according to the 1888 Convention of Constantinoble was guarding the Neutral Canal Zone - hoping for Italian backup; as the Italians isn't ready to take on the British and French or other Allies and reject support for King Farouk. The British, French and Germans can't be denied its use but Italy also wants to be able to use the Canal for shipping to its Colony Somalia and other markets.

The force sail to Singapore where it joins the RN FES before entering the South China Sea linking up with the French Battleships in FIC and moves on for Taiwan.
The German Mountain Division and a Tank Brigade is offloaded at Kwangchow and railed to Fukien Province opposite Taiwan though during this the Tank Brigade is rerouted to Korea along troops for an Infantry Division which picks up its heavy weapons and trucks in China. Luftwaffe Pilots and Ground Crews are railed to Mukden, Manchuria for their Aircraft delivery.
In the Fukien Province, China as well as neighbouring Provinces and Hong Kong the portcities have been subjected to Japanese airattacks to destroy port facilies along the usually present oil tanks and other stores as well as Railway Yards.
The Chinese Airforce aided by the Coastal Radarstations have been able to intercept a large number of raids but of course can't be all over the place all the time and Bombers do manage to get through to attack targets.
However the Japanese Fighter escorts take serious losses that is hard to replace due to distance to the Home Isles though the Japanese do try to ship out such. The Allied Submarine force of British, German and Netherlands Submarines are very active and manage to sink large numbers of freighters though the IJN do conduct ASW oprations and use Jetaircraft to patrol the extensive waterbody.
French, Luftwaffe, RAF, RAAF and RNZAF squadrons deploy to China to aid their ally and to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan which the Japanese well know is coming.

[575]

Typhoons 1952
By late October the Typhoon season was deemed over though as the Invasion Fleet had embarked a late Taiwan Season Typhoon was reported which delayed the Invasion to early November. The Typhoon had wrecked a lot of the remaining Japanese Air Squadrons in Taiwan though the survivors were still able to inflict losses on the troop transports.
Prior to the Invasion the IJN had tried reinforcing the defences of Taiwan with new aircraft flying down the Ryu Kyu Island chain which had been rather successful though it also meant that some new airfields – mere refuelling stations and emergency fields – had to be built at Yaku-Shima, Amami-O-Shima and Sakishima-Shoto Islands as well as enlarging the Okinawa Airfields which were the main stageing Airfield.

Due to these Japanese activities the Allied Command decided to use part of the Carrier Fleet with a major part of the Battleships to as much as possible interrupt this island-hopping of the Japanese.
The Carriers partaking had their Airgroup Torpedobombers leave most of the torpedoes on base to be able to utilize as many bombers as possible though still retain the Torpedocapacity should chance play its hand for using this agaisnt the Japanese Carriers. Also the Fighter complement were increased and the AEW-aircraft numbers increased to keep watch over the Japanese.
Quite a number of heavy bombers were also used in the Strategic Reconnaisance Role to get as much intelligence as possible besides breaking of Japanese Cipher. The USA hadn't dissiminated its doing so during the late 1930's so the Allied Command had to start from scratch though some work had been done in previous years.
At the same time the IJN was keeping ships at sea for just that purpose too.
During one of these operations in September the Allied Fleet numbering three Carriers one French two RN as well as six Battleships/-cruisers were detected by the Japanese which intercepted the Allied Fleet to the west of Okinawa with three Carriers four Battleships and a large number of Cruisers; the supply chain down the Ryu Kyu Is. were for the time being interrupted to have as much airsupport as possible by keeping the aircraft at Okinawa to sortie on the Allied Fleet from there.
Having been informed of the IJA presence and being short of torpedoes the Allied commander requested a feigned bomb-run on Okinawa to engage the Aircraft there – such plans had been draw up for use in just such a situation and Allied Supreme Command informed that what was available of large aircraft would be scrambled for such a deception bombrun. If that could serve to have the Carrier Aircraft take out a Japanese Carrier or two it would be worth the effort. Chinese Airforce at Yungkia, Chekiang Province had agreed to participate with its heavy bombers there.
Thus the Allied Carrier Force would engage the IJA Carrier Force and the Allied Heavy Bombers deliver the deception to Okinawa.
Trying to decept the IJN the Allied Carrier Force would navigate to attract as much attention as possible though the heavy bombers needed at least 3 hrs to arrive at Okinawa though the detection of their advance past Taiwan would be expected to fool the Japanese and make them retain the Okinawa fighteraircraft for the incoming airraid.
The feigned bombrun did make the Japanese partially hold back fighteraircraft at Okinawa for the incoming attack while the IJN Carrier Group attacked the Allied Fleet to the west of the island.
The Japanese attack aircraft got off the first shot while the Allied aircraft had only taken off and were climbing to altituce. Hitting the French Carrier the Allied fighter aircraft went for the Japanese as their own bombers went for the IJN Carriers.
As during the Battle off Mussau Island the year before the both sides lost one Carrier sunk and the others damaged; Japanese damage control hadn't improved much during the past year and both damaged Carriers were sunk by the IJN. The British Carriers retreated to Hong Kong for repairs.

Edit: Within two weeks the Japanese Army on Taiwan had been defeated in the field no small way due to intelligence gathered from the locals who had endured a harsh colonial regime since 1894. The Japanese troops fought tenaciouly but the aid of the locals revealed a lot of the strongpoints to the invaders which had been concealed to let invaders bypass them for the occupying troops to sortie and attack the invaders in the rear. Even so the cleansing operations of scattered Japanese units went on the next two months though that would be purely a Chinese operation.
As soon as the Japanese had been defeated the German Army and Luftwaffe units were transported off to Korea to reinforce the defences there; a relief to the Chinese who wanted to conduct the cleansing of collaborators and rounded up Japanese without interference from weak-minded Westeners. Not to say the German troops could be called weakminded following combat experience in Taiwan just as their countrymen in Korea.

Both Britain and Germany step up their efforts to build their own Nuclear Weapons on the design of the formerly tested weapons.

[stevep]

Jan 11, 2023 9:03:52 GMT 575 said:

Typhoons 1952
By late October the Typhoon season was deemed over though as the Invasion Fleet had embarked a late Taiwan Season Typhoon was reported which delayed the Invasion to early November. The Typhoon had wrecked a lot of the remaining Japanese Air Squadrons in Taiwan though the survivors were still able to inflict losses on the troop transports.
Prior to the Invasion the IJN had tried reinforcing the defences of Taiwan with new aircraft flying down the Ryu Kyu Island chain which had been rather successful though it also meant that some new airfields – mere refuelling stations and emergency fields – had to be built at Yaku-Shima, Amami-O-Shima and Sakishima-Shoto Islands as well as enlarging the Okinawa Airfields which were the main stageing Airfield.

Due to these Japanese activities the Allied Command decided to use part of the Carrier Fleet with a major part of the Battleships to as much as possible interrupt this island-hopping of the Japanese.
The Carriers partaking had their Airgroup Torpedobombers leave most of the torpedoes on base to be able to utilize as many bombers as possible though still retain the Torpedocapacity should chance play its hand for using this agaisnt the Japanese Carriers. Also the Fighter complement were increased and the AEW-aircraft numbers increased to keep watch over the Japanese.
Quite a number of heavy bombers were also used in the Strategic Reconnaisance Role to get as much intelligence as possible besides breaking of Japanese Cipher. The USA hadn't dissiminated its doing so during the late 1930's so the Allied Command had to start from scratch though some work had been done in previous years.
At the same time the IJN was keeping ships at sea for just that purpose too.
During one of these operations in September the Allied Fleet numbering three Carriers one French two RN as well as six Battleships/-cruisers were detected by the Japanese which intercepted the Allied Fleet to the west of Okinawa with three Carriers four Battleships and a large number of Cruisers; the supply chain down the Ryu Kyu Is. were for the time being interrupted to have as much airsupport as possible by keeping the aircraft at Okinawa to sortie on the Allied Fleet from there.
Having been informed of the IJA presence and being short of torpedoes the Allied commander requested a feigned bomb-run on Okinawa to engage the Aircraft there – such plans had been draw up for use in just such a situation and Allied Supreme Command informed that what was available of large aircraft would be scrambled for such a deception bombrun. If that could serve to have the Carrier Aircraft take out a Japanese Carrier or two it would be worth the effort. Chinese Airforce at Yungkia, Chekiang Province had agreed to participate with its heavy bombers there.
Thus the Allied Carrier Force would engage the IJA Carrier Force and the Allied Heavy Bombers deliver the deception to Okinawa.
Trying to decept the IJN the Allied Carrier Force would navigate to attract as much attention as possible though the heavy bombers needed at least 3 hrs to arrive at Okinawa though the detection of their advance past Taiwan would be expected to fool the Japanese and make them retain the Okinawa fighteraircraft for the incoming airraid.
The feigned bombrun did make the Japanese partially hold back fighteraircraft at Okinawa for the incoming attack while the IJN Carrier Group attacked the Allied Fleet to the west of the island.
The Japanese attack aircraft got off the first shot while the Allied aircraft had only taken off and were climbing to altituce. Hitting the French Carrier the Allied fighter aircraft went for the Japanese as their own bombers went for the IJN Carriers.
As during the Battle off Mussau Island the year before the both sides lost one Carrier sunk and the others damaged; Japanese damage control hadn't improved much during the past year and both damaged Carriers were sunk by the IJN. The British Carriers retreated to Hong Kong for repairs.

Within two weeks the Japanese on Taiwan had been defeated in no small way due to intelligence gathered from the locals who had endured a harsh colonial regime since 1894. The Japanese troops fought tenaciouly but the aid of the locals revealed a lot of the strongpoints to the invaders which had been concealed to let invaders bypass them for the occupying troops to sortie and attack the invaders in the rear.
As soon as the Japanese had been defeated the German Army and Luftwaffe units were transported off to Korea to reinforce the defences there; a relief to the Chinese who wanted to conduct the cleansing of collaborators and rounded up Japanese without interference from weak-minded Westeners. Not to say the German troops could be called weakminded following combat experience in Taiwan just as their countrymen in Korea.

Both Britain and Germany step up their efforts to build their own Nuclear Weapons on the design of the formerly tested weapons.

  Given the OTL resistance of Japanese forces, the size of Taiwan and the lack of prior experience of this sort of conflict by the allies this seems rather a quick victory.  I could see within say a couple of months the bulk of the Japanese forces defeated and hold outs in some areas but 2 weeks seem rather too fast, even with support from the locals.

  That last bit about the Chinese being glad the German forces are moved from Taiwan back to Korea sounds bad for the Taiwanese.

[575]

Jan 11, 2023 18:06:08 GMT stevep said:

Jan 11, 2023 9:03:52 GMT 575 said:

Typhoons 1952
By late October the Typhoon season was deemed over though as the Invasion Fleet had embarked a late Taiwan Season Typhoon was reported which delayed the Invasion to early November. The Typhoon had wrecked a lot of the remaining Japanese Air Squadrons in Taiwan though the survivors were still able to inflict losses on the troop transports.
Prior to the Invasion the IJN had tried reinforcing the defences of Taiwan with new aircraft flying down the Ryu Kyu Island chain which had been rather successful though it also meant that some new airfields – mere refuelling stations and emergency fields – had to be built at Yaku-Shima, Amami-O-Shima and Sakishima-Shoto Islands as well as enlarging the Okinawa Airfields which were the main stageing Airfield.

Due to these Japanese activities the Allied Command decided to use part of the Carrier Fleet with a major part of the Battleships to as much as possible interrupt this island-hopping of the Japanese.
The Carriers partaking had their Airgroup Torpedobombers leave most of the torpedoes on base to be able to utilize as many bombers as possible though still retain the Torpedocapacity should chance play its hand for using this agaisnt the Japanese Carriers. Also the Fighter complement were increased and the AEW-aircraft numbers increased to keep watch over the Japanese.
Quite a number of heavy bombers were also used in the Strategic Reconnaisance Role to get as much intelligence as possible besides breaking of Japanese Cipher. The USA hadn't dissiminated its doing so during the late 1930's so the Allied Command had to start from scratch though some work had been done in previous years.
At the same time the IJN was keeping ships at sea for just that purpose too.
During one of these operations in September the Allied Fleet numbering three Carriers one French two RN as well as six Battleships/-cruisers were detected by the Japanese which intercepted the Allied Fleet to the west of Okinawa with three Carriers four Battleships and a large number of Cruisers; the supply chain down the Ryu Kyu Is. were for the time being interrupted to have as much airsupport as possible by keeping the aircraft at Okinawa to sortie on the Allied Fleet from there.
Having been informed of the IJA presence and being short of torpedoes the Allied commander requested a feigned bomb-run on Okinawa to engage the Aircraft there – such plans had been draw up for use in just such a situation and Allied Supreme Command informed that what was available of large aircraft would be scrambled for such a deception bombrun. If that could serve to have the Carrier Aircraft take out a Japanese Carrier or two it would be worth the effort. Chinese Airforce at Yungkia, Chekiang Province had agreed to participate with its heavy bombers there.
Thus the Allied Carrier Force would engage the IJA Carrier Force and the Allied Heavy Bombers deliver the deception to Okinawa.
Trying to decept the IJN the Allied Carrier Force would navigate to attract as much attention as possible though the heavy bombers needed at least 3 hrs to arrive at Okinawa though the detection of their advance past Taiwan would be expected to fool the Japanese and make them retain the Okinawa fighteraircraft for the incoming airraid.
The feigned bombrun did make the Japanese partially hold back fighteraircraft at Okinawa for the incoming attack while the IJN Carrier Group attacked the Allied Fleet to the west of the island.
The Japanese attack aircraft got off the first shot while the Allied aircraft had only taken off and were climbing to altituce. Hitting the French Carrier the Allied fighter aircraft went for the Japanese as their own bombers went for the IJN Carriers.
As during the Battle off Mussau Island the year before the both sides lost one Carrier sunk and the others damaged; Japanese damage control hadn't improved much during the past year and both damaged Carriers were sunk by the IJN. The British Carriers retreated to Hong Kong for repairs.

Within two weeks the Japanese on Taiwan had been defeated in no small way due to intelligence gathered from the locals who had endured a harsh colonial regime since 1894. The Japanese troops fought tenaciouly but the aid of the locals revealed a lot of the strongpoints to the invaders which had been concealed to let invaders bypass them for the occupying troops to sortie and attack the invaders in the rear.
As soon as the Japanese had been defeated the German Army and Luftwaffe units were transported off to Korea to reinforce the defences there; a relief to the Chinese who wanted to conduct the cleansing of collaborators and rounded up Japanese without interference from weak-minded Westeners. Not to say the German troops could be called weakminded following combat experience in Taiwan just as their countrymen in Korea.

Both Britain and Germany step up their efforts to build their own Nuclear Weapons on the design of the formerly tested weapons.

  Given the OTL resistance of Japanese forces, the size of Taiwan and the lack of prior experience of this sort of conflict by the allies this seems rather a quick victory.  I could see within say a couple of months the bulk of the Japanese forces defeated and hold outs in some areas but 2 weeks seem rather too fast, even with support from the locals.

  That last bit about the Chinese being glad the German forces are moved from Taiwan back to Korea sounds bad for the Taiwanese.

Do agree to some extend though the major battle is won within those two weeks as the Taiwanese didn't really like their Japanese overlords they  would be keen to point them out.

Also the Japanese have been through 8 years war in Manchuria and Korea being defeated by the Soviets and Chinese so it is quite another army than the WWII one. An Army that had seen its senior officers killed in Manchuria and being substituted by a new group that had to fight another war.

Though I'll do an edit on the duration of fighting.

[575]

USA 1952
The OSS had had little to report on the Danish contribution to the possible Nordic Nuclear Test; of course Niels Bohr would have been involved as he was the major brain and had even by 1936 spoken of such though saying it would way in the future which could be deemed now. Still lots of European and Asian scientists but also US, North and South Americans flocked to his Faculty at Copenhagen though no discussions except private ones were taking place there. Trying to obtain information there had been a dead end. The Seismographic Faculty at Copenhagen led by Professor Inge Lehmann had proven more positive but Prof. Lehmann had been a disappointment talking indeed of seismic waves but giving no information to connect the two in a Copenhagen context which would be the one if any.
The Danes and Swedes were still building Nuclear Reactors for electricity production and Norway as well as Finland had their projects – the Finn the most advanced as Norway had much greater Hydropower potential to draw on.
Trying to eke information out of locals were downright close to impossible – whatever descendant of Scandinavian emigrees had been sent into the field but had obtained close to nothing. Of course there were the factories building the parts for the Nuclear Power Stations but of the Weapons factories none. The old Hydro Plant east of Bergen, Norway had for a long time been suspected of being the original building plant for the Nordic Nuclear Testbomb's but getting access was only possible in some parts and possibly the really interesting bits were in the mountain under the Turbine Hall but no access.
Anyway it was decided to gather the US brains for just such a project initially to survey the capacity of knowledge to build upon and the possible obstacles to work around. Professor J.R. Oppenheimer of Berkely University was asked to lead the work that would build a US Nuclear Bomb. Oppenheimer however was reluctant to enter such work because USA didn't have a need for it and the Nordics and their Cooperatives most possibly Britain, Germany and France hadn't disclosed being in possession of such and certainly didn't seem to need the use of such. Oppenheimer found that the brains for the project might well be available in the USA though not the need and expected the cost of the project to be prohibitive in the present situation that didn't warrant such a project.
Having heard the Intelligence as well as the Scientific Institutions the US Government for the time being shelved the project.

The outbreak of War in the Far East had the full attention of the USG; it came rather close to the US waters in the West. No restrictions had been laid on Neutral shipping through the extensive British or French areas of the Pacific though that might change. The presence of German Submarines in the Pacific however were quite annoying; the ghost of the Great War rearing its head only this time the former Enemies had joined forces – most unsettling.
To appear Neutral in the conflict the US declared the Panama Canal open to commercial traffic but closed to Warships of warring nations – last part a clear signal to the French Alliance in the War against Japan.

Eventual defeat of Japan had to be considered – it wouldn't be desirable to have an all European dominated Far East though the French should be considered on their way out of Indo China; the French building of an Alliance against Japan was considered a desperate action to save its position there. It was also doing badly in North Africa and its economy being strained to breaking.
The German presence in China and Korea seemed the logical extension of economic ties – the US understood this position very well. It didn't post much of a threat as the Germans had literally no Navy.
Japan however had to be kept floating.

There was a new market growing in Siberia and the Americans wanted in. Vladivostok being the gateway and that shouldn't be occupied by China or Japan to let commerce flow up the Amur River.
Which also made it imperative to have an independent Korea on the doorstep of Vladivostok – though a Guardian was needed which should be neighter Japan or China nor any ally of these.
The Russian Republic was in the process of rebuilding Russia so now was the time to get economic hold of the Far East of Sibiria – and have an oar in the water west of Alaska.
There had been negotiated a trade agreement with the Russian Republic which had opened that building market to the US Corporations. The Nordics sat on a solid part of the agricultural export but industrial output should be channeled into Russia. The trade agreement also regarded transport of goods through the Russian Republic to Ukraine and other neighbouring Nations due to the volatile situation in the Balkans and the War in Turkey. The British had forced the Straits open to commerce but it was a troubled area still.
Britain seemed to be going really well in spite of continueing unrest mostly in the African Colonies the building of the Commonwealth had served to keep the Colonies, former Colonies such as India and Dominions within the British Economic Sphere which in itself was a close to contained unit though the South Africans might break the shell. The South African White farmers were screaming for cheap agricultural Tractors – why not give that to them.

No matter war going on money had to be made and USG found that its Industry had much unused potential only the really strong markets were in Europe, China and Japan.
India had proven to be a huge market as long as the cost an item didn't exceed 50 cents - a major disappointment. Of course there was rich peoples in India but these looked to Britain for using that wealth.
Japan would be supported for now.

Going tough on the Colonial powers in the Western Hemisphere – Britain, France, Netherlands and Denmark had backfired as these had ignored the US and if commenting had done so on the racial segregation implying that if the US desegregated those parts of society would want more commodities and begin buying such which would help US Economy.
Reiterating that the Colonial powers should do so themselves they replied that everybody living in their colonies was free and could choose their way of living – Denmark even provided social security to its Colonies which by the way no longer had colonial status but were an Amt/County of the Kingdom of Denmark and as such loyal subjects of his Majesty King Frederik 9. The British boasted the Colonies being turned into local rule members of the Commonwealth – the Dutch just sullied.
Of course the Colonials' continued economic inequality existed within their countries and their colonies but so were the status of the USA and any other country.

Oil was still a much sought US commodity but the US wanted to enlarge its trade with the Europeans.
The European Market was open to the USA because of the Oil export but more was needed and the outlook was once again turned to South America for lucrative business deals oft involving US produced weapons and buying off of politicians to prioritize US goods over European ones.
Germany negotiated a special status economically in the Western Hemisphere due to its paying off of the US debt; Italy had already been taken off the anti-colonial hook due to its paying the Great War debt too – even if Somalia remained a Colony. Both seen as a way to get more economic presence in Europe by benefitted Nations costums agreements and also for annoying Britain and France; France really feeling the financial strain of fighting three wars in two continents but soldiering determined on; in the process evicting USA from the Cam Rahn Bay programme that was about finished and declared operational but only to French forces which left no small enmity in the US with the old ally. And a will to see the French out of Indo China.