A window of opportunity 1905

[stevep]

Jul 2, 2022 10:30:04 GMT 575 said:

(Partly inspired by raharris1973 thread on ATL-development of Nuclear Weapons)

Scandinavia
The war in the Far East was very far away. The intelligence services of the Scandinavians did notice that their local Communists were still loudly agitating but they seemed to have lost some steam of the previous years; perhaps the gold coffer in Moscow was drying up. Procuring was is a costly business and this one seemed very costly to the Soviets though the Italian contract of trading new Cruisers for Donbas coal indicated they would be ready to use their resources.
There had been Soviet contacts to Scandinavian shipbuilders alike the Italian deal however the Scandinavians would buy their coal in Britain or Germany or Poland and had sufficient steel themselves as well as agricultural produce.
Sovietunion had also tried for an arms deal of various Scandinavian arms designs and ammunition but this had been rejected with the ongoing war in mind. No need to hand over anything as long as Communist agitation were ongoing.

Denmark had reminded the Soviets that they were essentially utilizing the Madsen Arms Factory of Kovrov in Vladimir Oblast though not paying any licence fees and not having done so since the establishment of the factory by 1916; payment of that might be seen as a friendly gesture and a possibility of opening negotiations in areas of interest to the Sovietunion.
No reply would be forthcoming and the issue wasn't brought up again.
Instead Denmark would bring up the issue with the Nordic Brothers; Sweden agreed that it was an important issue and Finland seemed unsure it would be able to defend its borders against the Soviet Juggernaught that had shown its capabilities in Manchouko against a large – if Asian – Power.
The PM's would listen to Professor Niels Bohr and his musings on the shared Atomic Bomb programme; Bohr was confident that the building of the Bomb could be done though the economic cost was horrendous. Bohr was also sure that his team mainly Danish and Swedish scientist's had the theoretical layout for the production of the bomb and subsequent testing of a prototype more or less finalized. Bohr couldn't draw up a time line as there was still the issue of Uranium; the Alunshales of Bornholm and the West Götaland source at Billingen should be able to produce the required amounts but it would need mining something that wasn't ongoing and would be expensive to set up mainly in Denmark that had little experience in mining – except on Bornholm.
Bohr also related that a possible source of income to finance the project at least from the Danish perspective would be the Cryolite mining in southern Greenland a remark that earned him a “sheesh” glance from Danish PM Stauning. Bohr however persevered as he had be told by the Danish Geologists he had worked with on the Uranium prospecting project that war in the Far East had increased the demand for Cryolite somewhat.
At this Stauning told Bohr this to be a political aspect and continue on the science to which Bohr replied that funding the Atombomb project was a political apect too. Stauning then took the scene asking the other PM's of their opinion and willingness to opt into such a huge endeavour.
The answer wasn't clear; the Norwegians wanted to develop their country and was building hydro-electric powerplants to do such in order to electrify the railways to cut down fuel imports which would also open the way to the North of the country. Finland was still struggling industrializing and had a competitor in Norwegian and Swedish logging industries though the Petsamo Mines delivered much needed foreign currency. Denmark still floated upon the waves of the four due to the huge agricultural exports mainly to Britain and Germany but also the other Nordics and its shipbuilding capacity which was in large part a shared enterprise with Norway. Sweden still held sway as the mining and heavy industry of Scandinavia providing Britain and Germany with quality iron ore.
Some economic uplift was needed to be able to really fund the Atombomb programme the Nordics actually wanted as a deterrent to the Sovietunion schemes.

Commercial air transport had been in the works for quite some time but still being for transport and the very wealthy.
This year the Scandinavian Air Transport Firms discuss setting up a joint venture to eliminate double servicing of routes around Europe which is a deficit to all but also to discuss transatlantic flights to get into the much more lucrative US market.
Even if a lot have been achived by the Scandinavians since the turn of the Century and more since the 1905 War with sharing production to avoid money lost on common projects the private ventures isn't really ready for such and Governments are still feeling the effect of the previous decades economic hardship and not prone to support it the negotiations are shelved.
The aircraft able to make the transatlantic transport is on the market but hugely expensive and then there is the question of land or flying boat planes with the respective infrastructure to develop to consider.

Norway also have a wish for developing the communications in the north of the country where a large part of its fishing industry is situated but doesn't have the economic base for realizing such and ships and ferries are relied upon even if a railway line would promise much revenue.
None of the other countries have the same interest not even Denmark and its Northatlantic fishermen in Faeroe Islands and Iceland who also want to attain independence which in the case of Iceland would be determined by referendum by 1944. No need to hand over too much to a stepchild just waiting to run off the premises.

  Would they consider working with other powers on such a task to minimise the costs and speed development?  Bohr and possibly some of his colleagues could bring a good amount of both prestige and knowledge to the project.  They would need to make sure they weren't frozen out at some stage by their 'ally' but might be an option.  Coupled with possibly a defensive alliance against the Soviets.

[575]

Jul 2, 2022 17:52:40 GMT stevep said:

Jul 2, 2022 10:30:04 GMT 575 said:

(Partly inspired by raharris1973 thread on ATL-development of Nuclear Weapons)

Scandinavia
The war in the Far East was very far away. The intelligence services of the Scandinavians did notice that their local Communists were still loudly agitating but they seemed to have lost some steam of the previous years; perhaps the gold coffer in Moscow was drying up. Procuring was is a costly business and this one seemed very costly to the Soviets though the Italian contract of trading new Cruisers for Donbas coal indicated they would be ready to use their resources.
There had been Soviet contacts to Scandinavian shipbuilders alike the Italian deal however the Scandinavians would buy their coal in Britain or Germany or Poland and had sufficient steel themselves as well as agricultural produce.
Sovietunion had also tried for an arms deal of various Scandinavian arms designs and ammunition but this had been rejected with the ongoing war in mind. No need to hand over anything as long as Communist agitation were ongoing.

Denmark had reminded the Soviets that they were essentially utilizing the Madsen Arms Factory of Kovrov in Vladimir Oblast though not paying any licence fees and not having done so since the establishment of the factory by 1916; payment of that might be seen as a friendly gesture and a possibility of opening negotiations in areas of interest to the Sovietunion.
No reply would be forthcoming and the issue wasn't brought up again.
Instead Denmark would bring up the issue with the Nordic Brothers; Sweden agreed that it was an important issue and Finland seemed unsure it would be able to defend its borders against the Soviet Juggernaught that had shown its capabilities in Manchouko against a large – if Asian – Power.
The PM's would listen to Professor Niels Bohr and his musings on the shared Atomic Bomb programme; Bohr was confident that the building of the Bomb could be done though the economic cost was horrendous. Bohr was also sure that his team mainly Danish and Swedish scientist's had the theoretical layout for the production of the bomb and subsequent testing of a prototype more or less finalized. Bohr couldn't draw up a time line as there was still the issue of Uranium; the Alunshales of Bornholm and the West Götaland source at Billingen should be able to produce the required amounts but it would need mining something that wasn't ongoing and would be expensive to set up mainly in Denmark that had little experience in mining – except on Bornholm.
Bohr also related that a possible source of income to finance the project at least from the Danish perspective would be the Cryolite mining in southern Greenland a remark that earned him a “sheesh” glance from Danish PM Stauning. Bohr however persevered as he had be told by the Danish Geologists he had worked with on the Uranium prospecting project that war in the Far East had increased the demand for Cryolite somewhat.
At this Stauning told Bohr this to be a political aspect and continue on the science to which Bohr replied that funding the Atombomb project was a political apect too. Stauning then took the scene asking the other PM's of their opinion and willingness to opt into such a huge endeavour.
The answer wasn't clear; the Norwegians wanted to develop their country and was building hydro-electric powerplants to do such in order to electrify the railways to cut down fuel imports which would also open the way to the North of the country. Finland was still struggling industrializing and had a competitor in Norwegian and Swedish logging industries though the Petsamo Mines delivered much needed foreign currency. Denmark still floated upon the waves of the four due to the huge agricultural exports mainly to Britain and Germany but also the other Nordics and its shipbuilding capacity which was in large part a shared enterprise with Norway. Sweden still held sway as the mining and heavy industry of Scandinavia providing Britain and Germany with quality iron ore.
Some economic uplift was needed to be able to really fund the Atombomb programme the Nordics actually wanted as a deterrent to the Sovietunion schemes.

Commercial air transport had been in the works for quite some time but still being for transport and the very wealthy.
This year the Scandinavian Air Transport Firms discuss setting up a joint venture to eliminate double servicing of routes around Europe which is a deficit to all but also to discuss transatlantic flights to get into the much more lucrative US market.
Even if a lot have been achived by the Scandinavians since the turn of the Century and more since the 1905 War with sharing production to avoid money lost on common projects the private ventures isn't really ready for such and Governments are still feeling the effect of the previous decades economic hardship and not prone to support it the negotiations are shelved.
The aircraft able to make the transatlantic transport is on the market but hugely expensive and then there is the question of land or flying boat planes with the respective infrastructure to develop to consider.

Norway also have a wish for developing the communications in the north of the country where a large part of its fishing industry is situated but doesn't have the economic base for realizing such and ships and ferries are relied upon even if a railway line would promise much revenue.
None of the other countries have the same interest not even Denmark and its Northatlantic fishermen in Faeroe Islands and Iceland who also want to attain independence which in the case of Iceland would be determined by referendum by 1944. No need to hand over too much to a stepchild just waiting to run off the premises.

  Would they consider working with other powers on such a task to minimise the costs and speed development?  Bohr and possibly some of his colleagues could bring a good amount of both prestige and knowledge to the project.  They would need to make sure they weren't frozen out at some stage by their 'ally' but might be an option.  Coupled with possibly a defensive alliance against the Soviets.

I thought about Germany; Werner Heisenberg of course. Bohr had a large internationally renowned Physics Lab at Copenhagen and had more of an oar into the building of the early nuclear weapons then previously known. Sweden during the cold war initiated their own nuclear weapons programme and an aircraft to deliver it. I would expect the four Nordic powers combined could pull it off but it would be hugely expensive. The British due to the Norwegians and Bohrs link to E. Rutherford and other British scientists would also be an option.

[575]

Fall 1941
Manchuria
Zhukov had been sulking all through Summer but kept quiet; Papa Stalin had unimpressed by Zhukov's inability to break the Japanese defences on the Sungari routed reinforcements to the Vladivostok Front for a breakout of the Fortified Complex to hit the Japanese in the back.
The Vladivostok fighting had been good old massed Artillery softening up of defences and then waves of Infantry going over the top supported by a few T-34 Tanks. It had taken time but by the end of September the Japanese defences crubled.
Zhukov saw it as his moment; the Mechanized Divisions was ordered off supported by Infantry following a short intense Artillery Barrage. Infantry was ferried across the Sungari and as bridgeheads was established not least helped by the southern thrust to the south of lake Qagan Nur by a Mechanized Division supported by all available Cavalry which kept to the south of Sungari and headed for Changchun and Jilin to sever the Japanese from their supply communications with Korea.

The Japanese defences around Harbin collapsed as Chiang Kai-Chek now threw in his lot against the Japanese.
The Chinese Army moved across the Luan He river and quickly the Japanese defenders withdrew; Manchouko troops surrendering en masse.
The fast advances of the Chinese Army and the disintegration of Manchouko had Stalin in a rage; the comtemptible Chinese was upsetting the Soviet led Revolution.
Chinese Tank Brigades supported by Chinese Airforce bombers moved north heading for Liaoning Province and the provincial capital of Shenyang while further inland the Chinese Infantry moved out of Chengde/Jehol through the hilly terrain.
Further to the north Chinese Cavalry were moving into Inner Mongolia having been occupied by the Japanese; led by General Röhm once again in his beloved desert directing mobile troops.
Chiang had notified the Soviet Ambassador to China of the attack just a short time before it jumped off to offset Soviet reactions; Stalin had been furious and ordered the Chinese CP to sabotage the Chinese offensive well knowing that his own Army had its hands full defeating the Japanese.
A few incidents of CP sabotage to Chinese Armed Forces did take place most noticably a raid on a reararea Airforce training facility where some twenty obsolete training Aircraft were destroyed. Mao well knew Chiang to have too much a grip on things to be able to do much and anyway he too coveted the Industrial Manchuria and thought it much easier to take over in the chaos post war at least politically so didn't want to waste too many resources at the moment.
At the close of the year the Soviet Armies were on the northern part of the border with Korea and the Chinese Army had liberated Shenyang and were moving on the Korean border.

The Chinese offensive was seen in the Democratic Nations as a victory of Democracy though a victory only attained by arms to defeat the Fascist Japanese but also recognizing the dire straits the Chinese would be in should the Sovietunion decide to fall upon it following final defeat of Japan.
The Nordics were convinced some Soviet reaction would follow though China being supported by Britain, Germany, USA and Czechoslovakia would hardly be the victim of such; more emphasis was put on Poland or Scandinavia by the Nordic Intelligence services or Turkey as the Sovietunion coveted free passage to the Seas - Denmark and Turkey being in the way of such.

[stevep]

Jul 3, 2022 17:40:58 GMT 575 said:

Jul 2, 2022 17:52:40 GMT stevep said:

  Would they consider working with other powers on such a task to minimise the costs and speed development?  Bohr and possibly some of his colleagues could bring a good amount of both prestige and knowledge to the project.  They would need to make sure they weren't frozen out at some stage by their 'ally' but might be an option.  Coupled with possibly a defensive alliance against the Soviets.

I thought about Germany; Werner Heisenberg of course. Bohr had a large internationally renowned Physics Lab at Copenhagen and had more of an oar into the building of the early nuclear weapons then previously known. Sweden during the cold war initiated their own nuclear weapons programme and an aircraft to deliver it. I would expect the four Nordic powers combined could pull it off but it would be hugely expensive. The British due to the Norwegians and Bohrs link to E. Rutherford and other British scientists would also be an option.

  I was assuming any one of the big three European power, Britain, Germany or France.  Not sure if Italy would have the resources, even with possibly Fermi helping, especially after Mussolini's disaster.

[stevep]

Jul 4, 2022 15:49:01 GMT 575 said:

Fall 1941
Manchuria
Zhukov had been sulking all through Summer but kept quiet; Papa Stalin had unimpressed by Zhukov's inability to break the Japanese defences on the Sungari routed reinforcements to the Vladivostok Front for a breakout of the Fortified Complex to hit the Japanese in the back.
The Vladivostok fighting had been good old massed Artillery softening up of defences and then waves of Infantry going over the top supported by a few T-34 Tanks. It had taken time but by the end of September the Japanese defences crubled.
Zhukov saw it as his moment; the Mechanized Divisions was ordered off supported by Infantry following a short intense Artillery Barrage. Infantry was ferried across the Sungari and as bridgeheads was established not least helped by the southern thrust to the south of lake Qagan Nur by a Mechanized Division supported by all available Cavalry which kept to the south of Sungari and headed for Changchun and Jilin to sever the Japanese from their supply communications with Korea.

The Japanese defences around Harbin collapsed as Chiang Kai-Chek now threw in his lot against the Japanese.
The Chinese Army moved across the Luan He river and quickly the Japanese defenders withdrew; Manchouko troops surrendering en masse.
The fast advances of the Chinese Army and the disintegration of Manchouko had Stalin in a rage; the comtemptible Chinese was upsetting the Soviet led Revolution.
Chinese Tank Brigades supported by Chinese Airforce bombers moved north heading for Liaoning Province and the provincial capital of Shenyang while further inland the Chinese Infantry moved out of Chengde/Jehol through the hilly terrain.
Further to the north Chinese Cavalry were moving into Inner Mongolia having been occupied by the Japanese; led by General Röhm once again in his beloved desert directing mobile troops.
Chiang had notified the Soviet Ambassador to China of the attack just a short time before it jumped off to offset Soviet reactions; Stalin had been furious and ordered the Chinese CP to sabotage the Chinese offensive well knowing that his own Army had its hands full defeating the Japanese.
A few incidents of CP sabotage to Chinese Armed Forces did take place most noticably a raid on a reararea Airforce training facility where some twenty obsolete training Aircraft were destroyed. Mao well knew Chiang to have too much a grip on things to be able to do much and anyway he too coveted the Industrial Manchuria and thought it much easier to take over in the chaos post war at least politically so didn't want to waste too many resources at the moment.
At the close of the year the Soviet Armies were on the northern part of the border with Korea and the Chinese Army had liberated Shenyang and were moving on the Korean border.

The Chinese offensive was seen in the Democratic Nations as a victory of Democracy though a victory only attained by arms to defeat the Fascist Japanese but also recognizing the dire straits the Chinese would be in should the Sovietunion decide to fall upon it following final defeat of Japan.
The Nordics were convinced some Soviet reaction would follow though China being supported by Britain, Germany, USA and Czechoslovakia would hardly be the victim of such; more emphasis was put on Poland or Scandinavia by the Nordic Intelligence services or Turkey as the Sovietunion coveted free passage to the Seas - Denmark and Turkey being in the way of such.

  Chiang is talking a risk given the strength the Soviets seem to be displaying but he is is a markedly stronger position than OTL and can expect at least diplomatic and probably fiscal and economic aid from a number of powers if faced with a Soviet invasion.  Plus such would probably be really bad for the CCP as it would be painted as a traitor for supporting a foreign invader.

  Not sure Stalin, still fighting a sizeable war in the Far East would risk a major war in the west but he might think he could have a go at either Poland or Finland without too much risk of a wider war.  [Although he should expect the other Scandinavian powers to support the Finns in such a case.  However their total population is still pretty small so he could underestimate what their capable of even without any foreign support].

  I can't remember in TTL what are the status of the Baltic states, i.e  Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia?  Are they still independent and do any of them have any likely defenders in the event of a Soviet 'liberation'?  That could be another option although it doesn't massively boost Soviet power.

[575]

I am just uneasy about France - ITTL it is much more of a Big Power than OTL having defeated Fascist Italy and messed with Spain and not having built the entire Maginot Line leaving funds to be explored as in the case of the modernization of the Navy. They may just take the perspective of Poland and Germany being their buffer states. Though it certainly is a possible.
Italy is still out of the equation for lack of resources though it will move up the ladder with the oil of Libya going through the pipeline.

[575]

Jul 4, 2022 16:47:05 GMT stevep said:

Jul 4, 2022 15:49:01 GMT 575 said:

Fall 1941
Manchuria
Zhukov had been sulking all through Summer but kept quiet; Papa Stalin had unimpressed by Zhukov's inability to break the Japanese defences on the Sungari routed reinforcements to the Vladivostok Front for a breakout of the Fortified Complex to hit the Japanese in the back.
The Vladivostok fighting had been good old massed Artillery softening up of defences and then waves of Infantry going over the top supported by a few T-34 Tanks. It had taken time but by the end of September the Japanese defences crubled.
Zhukov saw it as his moment; the Mechanized Divisions was ordered off supported by Infantry following a short intense Artillery Barrage. Infantry was ferried across the Sungari and as bridgeheads was established not least helped by the southern thrust to the south of lake Qagan Nur by a Mechanized Division supported by all available Cavalry which kept to the south of Sungari and headed for Changchun and Jilin to sever the Japanese from their supply communications with Korea.

The Japanese defences around Harbin collapsed as Chiang Kai-Chek now threw in his lot against the Japanese.
The Chinese Army moved across the Luan He river and quickly the Japanese defenders withdrew; Manchouko troops surrendering en masse.
The fast advances of the Chinese Army and the disintegration of Manchouko had Stalin in a rage; the comtemptible Chinese was upsetting the Soviet led Revolution.
Chinese Tank Brigades supported by Chinese Airforce bombers moved north heading for Liaoning Province and the provincial capital of Shenyang while further inland the Chinese Infantry moved out of Chengde/Jehol through the hilly terrain.
Further to the north Chinese Cavalry were moving into Inner Mongolia having been occupied by the Japanese; led by General Röhm once again in his beloved desert directing mobile troops.
Chiang had notified the Soviet Ambassador to China of the attack just a short time before it jumped off to offset Soviet reactions; Stalin had been furious and ordered the Chinese CP to sabotage the Chinese offensive well knowing that his own Army had its hands full defeating the Japanese.
A few incidents of CP sabotage to Chinese Armed Forces did take place most noticably a raid on a reararea Airforce training facility where some twenty obsolete training Aircraft were destroyed. Mao well knew Chiang to have too much a grip on things to be able to do much and anyway he too coveted the Industrial Manchuria and thought it much easier to take over in the chaos post war at least politically so didn't want to waste too many resources at the moment.
At the close of the year the Soviet Armies were on the northern part of the border with Korea and the Chinese Army had liberated Shenyang and were moving on the Korean border.

The Chinese offensive was seen in the Democratic Nations as a victory of Democracy though a victory only attained by arms to defeat the Fascist Japanese but also recognizing the dire straits the Chinese would be in should the Sovietunion decide to fall upon it following final defeat of Japan.
The Nordics were convinced some Soviet reaction would follow though China being supported by Britain, Germany, USA and Czechoslovakia would hardly be the victim of such; more emphasis was put on Poland or Scandinavia by the Nordic Intelligence services or Turkey as the Sovietunion coveted free passage to the Seas - Denmark and Turkey being in the way of such.

  Chiang is talking a risk given the strength the Soviets seem to be displaying but he is is a markedly stronger position than OTL and can expect at least diplomatic and probably fiscal and economic aid from a number of powers if faced with a Soviet invasion.  Plus such would probably be really bad for the CCP as it would be painted as a traitor for supporting a foreign invader.

  Not sure Stalin, still fighting a sizeable war in the Far East would risk a major war in the west but he might think he could have a go at either Poland or Finland without too much risk of a wider war.  [Although he should expect the other Scandinavian powers to support the Finns in such a case.  However their total population is still pretty small so he could underestimate what their capable of even without any foreign support].

  I can't remember in TTL what are the status of the Baltic states, i.e  Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia?  Are they still independent and do any of them have any likely defenders in the event of a Soviet 'liberation'?  That could be another option although it doesn't massively boost Soviet power.

The Soviets true to tradition have lost a lot of troops and equipment fighting the Japanese on a much larger scale than OTL and isn't going to just turn around; just rerouting logistics would be some challenge. I'm quite sure the Soviets would underestimate the Bourgeois Scandinavians - remember Lenin saying the last country to see a Revolution would be Denmark (he actually lived here for a short while!) both the Finns and Swedes were engaged in the Winter War as was AWOL Danish Army and Navy Pilots much thought off by their Finn commanders. I'm sure the Scandinavians would give the Soviets a tough fight.

My impression is that Chiang is taking the risk of the enemy of my enemy is my friend - at the moment and hoping for support at LoN and by the Democratic countries of mainly Europe and USA and is to get some. Though he is in much better shape here than OTL with extensive German and Czech backing and the Brits in south and western Xinkiang.

The Japanese isn't out of the game yet but is having their backs against the wall. Perhaps an uprising in Korea?

The Baltic States are still independent supported by the Scandinavians/Nordics donating them older arms though the most is kept in reserve for a rainy day. Germany also have become a backer due to the German Minority in those countries and financial interests.

[575]

1942
Italy is beginning to make itself felt on the oilmarket. However at home riches are reserved for a small minority of society sowing seeds of discontend though.
Initially its through contracting with primarily US drilling firms and testing the quality of the crude oil which proves to be very light and needing little working lowering cost of building up the industry; extreme luck for the impoverished Italian state.
These initial workings have severe political repercussions; the Communist Party heavily supported by the Sovietunion at its annual congress splinter into several fractions with a large Nordic Socialdemocratic new fraction that want to use the existing political system to direct funds from oil to the populace where in the other end of the spectrum is several hardcore Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist fractions building their own parties each highly opposed to the state that is seen as stealing the wealth from the peoples concentrating it in the hands of Royalty Industrialists and old Nobility.
Generally the various communist parties are strong in the north – the industrial cities of the Po River plain – and the Socialdemocrats having their main base in the center and south of the country though of course with a fraction in the Po River plain which is troubled by the communist parties fighting it as it is seen as detracting the workers from the real issue of revolution.
The Socialdemocratic Party also work to enlist farm hands hence its strength in the central and southern parts of the country. Parts of the party also tolerate the Church which is shied like the plague by the Communist Parties. The Socialdemocratic Party leaders had to some extend allied themselves to the PSI Socialist Italian Party since the Yugoslavian War 1935 which had served to them being alienated by the hardcore Communist Fractions.
Generally the left parties are anti-Kingdom and plead for a secular Republic of the Peoples.
The Communist Parties adherents are not slow in starting a terrorist campain not unlike the Anarkist and Syndikalist movements of late 19., early 20. centuries targetting primarily Royalty, Church, Industrialists and Police.
As the Police lack the numbers to roll up the terrorist cells the Army is soon brought into the field and become a target too of the Communist Parties.
Parliament is initially quite pro-Royalty and other state institutions but discussions do recognize that the real short term enemy is the Communist Parties though in the longer term the Socialdemocratic Party is the enemy though more difficult to get to grips with as it works strictly within democratic regulations.
The Socialdemocratic Party is soon gathering momentum by winning local elections on getting rid of the still ruling Fascist local municipalities and councils.
Both fractions tried to combat the extensive bribery for public office or just vacant positions with the state.

As the Italians themselves say: the Yugoslavians hate us, the Soviets laugh at us, the French loathe us, the British and Germans dispise us, the Americans neglect us, the Scandinavians piti us but won't lift a finger – only the Spanish show some love for us because they hope to get oil!

The financially invigored Italian state can't be dismissed with Spain being the first to jump the Italian bandwagon in economic enterprises as a counterweigh to France looming in the north.
Germany and Poland notes a decrease in coal orders from Italy as it begins turning its electricity generating to oil instead of imported coal.
The Italian Navy suddenly resurfaced suggesting the Battleships Andrea Doria and Duilio in reserve to be refitted with oilburning boilers but also the in service Conte Di Cavour and Guilio Cesare to have their remaining coalburning boilers replaced with oilburning for starters. The Italian Government weary of the French decided to go with the second proposal but also give the reserve units priority for engine refit. Much easier were the ability to refit smaller units with oilburning boilers to get rid of the dependence on imported coal.
The Italian Army had wanted a real Tank but hadn't been able to procure new due to the meagre years; now the Italians had looked to Sweden and Czechoslovakia for inspiration of a modern design to fit the new Italian Tank. The Czechs now supplying China and other Nations did sell a TNH light Tank to Italy though a better deal was done with Sweden selling a licence for the Landsverk L-60 and getting a iron ore deal as part to the licence.
The Italians had tried getting the Cannone da 47/32 licenced to Sweden. The Swedes had been a hard bargain as they kept referring to Böhler of Austria as the original designer and ended up getting their own licence from that firm though as the Italians was as interested in getting better Tanks and Swedish iron ore both parties ended up satified. The Swedes of course immediately began developing their own AP, APHE and HE rounds for the gun proving superior to the Italian ordenance as their 37mm had to the Polish licence production of said round. Supplying some homegrown munitions to the Austrians being part of the licence contract (not official).

Italian luxury items suddenly attain new attention due to the availability in larger numbers. Party to this is the Alfa Romero racingteam being sponsored by AGIP in international competition.
Italy is the place to go on vacation.

Italy wasn't just of interest to the vacationers but also Governments took a new look to the traditionally poor state in the Med. Nordic countries traditionally short of Dollars was out early to secure imports of Italian/Libyan oil instead of expensive imports from the USA which also appealed to other small European countries. Even Germany turned its eyes to Italy because of Oil.
The Italian Aircraft Industry also got a new lease of life. With more countries able to afford Italian Oil so should those also be offered any kind of Italian made oilburners! As in the case of US Oil so with US Aircraft and Engines – the Italian option had become real. As with sportscars so with Trucks; another option suddenly available.
Of course it didn't happen overnight even if some later writers would make it seem so but was a process of several years but Italy was lucky to hit oil at a moment when Europe hadn't fully worked its way out of the after effects of the '30ties recession.

[575]

Scandinavia and a little more (still 1942)
The PMs of the four countries at their annual meeting decided to go Nuklear; the situation might suddenly turn volatile with the collapse of the Japanese in Manchuria. Better prepare for there to be a tomorrow.
Feelers were made with the British and German Governments; both were rather surprised at the gung-ho approach of the Scandinavians but then they shared a border and a long one with the Soviets. The Germans had the buffers of Poland, Czechoslovakia and Romania and Britain many more.
Former German Army Chief of Staff v. Hammerstein-Eqourd felt sure the Poles would fight fiercely should Stalin turn west though he was rather impressed by the Czech's; the Romanians didn't count in his book ended up advocating at least Werner Heisenberg, Lise Meitner and their staff be allowed to work with the Scandinavians for the Germans to scoop up the fall-out.
The British were won over by the prospect of paying off the Scandinavians for defending the first line without any British lives comitted.
The French had been approached on tiptoes; France had no interest in Scandinavian munitions project not on the proposed financial scale. France being mighty and thinking about how to keep a leash on Italy and Spain spent no more time on this nonsense.
The first step was to begin extracting Uranium at Bornholm and Billingen, West Götaland and then build a reactor in Norway at Bergen to begin producing weapons grade Plutonium. Norway chosen for its distance from the Sovietunion as both Finland and Denmark were anticipated to become battlefields.

Since the mid-1930's Swing had been the music of dance coming from America to capture the youth of Europe. In the last years of the 1930's Jazz had made itself felt for real.
The US music entered Europe through Paris; the French were eager to present their country to the Americans as the only civilized place of Europe and Paris as the civilized city of the continent thus many a young American artist or would be turned the eyes on Paris for the travel to Europe. There was a lot to see in Paris and France and anyway it had been the Ally of the US fighting for independence from the British so pay respect being due.
Other places also managed to pique American's interest – Rome the Eternal City even if the occational terrorist bomb might go off – Berlin capitol of the German Empire that initated the Great War – Vienna the Central European German city which wasn't part of Germany and London where they at least were able to understand the natives – sort of.
Their music however made it across the borders of France and into the rest of Europe and European youth would dance to Swing and listen to Jazz while the parents and other petrified beings would shake their heads at it.

The music also made it to Scandinavia particularly to Copenhagen, Denmark where youth of Sweden and Norway would gather to feel the new rythms and be able to drink alcohol without limits. Of course you could also find the music in Stockholm and Oslo even Helsinki for that matter if you knew where to look. In Copenhagen however You just had to enter any bar to get blown away by Swing or Jazz.
To some it was escapeism helped by liquor from a poor day with a dark outlook to others the way to enjoy life and be party to the new wave.

[575]

Having finalized the previous post I came across info that made for this to be written:

Iceland in the air 1937-42
For some years prospecting had been undertaken in both Iceland and Greenland for the establishing of airfields. The major problem of establishing trans-Atlantic airlines was the distances involved; at least a range of 1500 km – Bergen, Norway to Rejkjavik, Iceland where the Icelandic airport was projected – entailed such a flight. The difficult weather in the area would make for some margin needed.
DDL – Danish Air Lines had looked at the DC-3 and DC-5, the Boeing 307 Stratoliner (a conversion of the new B-17 bomber), Lockheed L749, the French Dewoitine B-33, Junkers G38 and Ju-90 and British AW 79 Ensign all had the required range though the US options would stretch the $-reserves. The British and German options might get negotiated along other trade but the French might just be difficult to negotiate – because well French. Though Dewoitine just might like to get a foot in the door of Trans-Atlantic flying.
The prospect of getting a foothold in the US the most developed civilian airtransport marked might just provide a huge boom as it would make Scandinavia/Nordic area the gate-way to Europe for Americans. Still the costs were horrendous but the Icelanders actually seemed to have an interest in becoming tied closer into the Scandinavian/Nordic sphere and were willing to spend on the building of an airport. Already during 1937 the Flugfelag Aukureyrar had been set up in the town of Aukurayra but that airfield was deemed too small and a larger necessary so building of the small airport at Rejkjavik had been undertaken the next year.
As DLL had difficulty in getting the other Nordic Airlines into cooperation flying on the North Atlantic Flugfelag Aukurayrar showed signs of interest even if the discussion within the firm was rather heated and even involved Icelandic politicians – Iceland is after all a very small nation.
The head of Flugfelag Aukurayrar in the end dismissed the doubters and nay sayers by telling that they wasn't coopeting the Danes they were coopting the Danish Air Lines a very private operation like his own.
The next issue was finding a suitable spot in Greenland for an airfield with room for enlargement to be able to handle the aircraft of the future; finding level land in large sections wasn't the most easy in Greenland but as early as 1932 Knud Rasmussen famed Greenland explorer had pointed to Kangerlussuk at the buttom of the fiord as a suitable place for a sheltered flyingboat landing area which showed to be at the southern end of a rather long but somewhat narrow alluvial plain where a meltwater river were running. To utilize the water which was full of tiny particles of dust a filtering process was needed but the river also promised the ability to utilization as a hydroplant for electricity; even more so the fiord was navigable from the sea to the end of the plain making for easy acces of engineering equipment.
The drawbacks was that flying from Iceland entailed crossing the Icecap of Greenlands and the weather – if was bad it would be bad for weeks if fine then for weeks too! Finding an emergency airfield in the south of Greenland proved something of a challenge due to the weather which was much more prone to bad coastal weather with fog. Not easy flying into and out of Greenland.
Distances in Greenland also dictated that shuttling between the airports by ship wasn't really an option due to any such would necessiate at least a weeks sailing – not necessarily in fine weather even during summer. Airline travellers wouldn't necessarily be seahardy Greenland or Iceland fishermen! Thus building a hotel accommodation at both spots would be necessary adding to the cost.
By 1942 the upcoming referendum the following year made it urgent for the Iceland politicians to be able to look the part to the World; airtraffic in and out of country seemed to be the thing needed to be counted among the civilized nations of Europe thus the green light was given to enlarge the airfield at Rejkjavik to airport size and Flugfelag Aukurayrar would change its name to Flugfelag Islands!
As such the Icelanding politicians pro- or anti-Danish Union awaited the referendum of 1943.

[575]

China/Far East (continueing 1942)
The Korean uprising was the greatest news out of the Far East. Fuelled by aid from both the Sovietunion and China the Communists and the more National groups revolted against the Japanese.
The Chinese had seen the Soviets fuel aid and weapons into Korea and had initiated their own programme to counter the Communists.
Possibly in cooperation the Sovietunion and China launched their offensives shortly following the news of the Korean uprising; it certainly served to stretch Japanese resources which were initially directed at the Communist groups which was in combination with the Red Army seen as the most dangerous enemy even if the Chinese had been able to continue their offensive when the Soviets had run out of steam during winter.
The Chinese Army was proving quite a capable force and with better weapons and munitions than either the Soviets or the Japanese. German and other European military missions training and Major Chennault running the Airforce paid off.
Another being the apparent stability of China's since the Sovietunion had gone east during 1935 making for Chiang being able to curb the Warlords or them seeing the light and supporting Chiang politically; still corruption was a problem in several areas but no longer the norm even among Koumintang Officials which a major degree was caused by Chiang as time passed had felt more and more secure in getting rid of corrupt officials which had the added benefit of peoples understand that you didn't have to pay for every favour – at least not all over the country.
As the Warlords changed allegiance to Chiang and his recent victories served to make such happen as thoughts of the future with a strong Government leader with a battlehardened large armed force was of little consolation to the corrupt types.
Of course there would probably always be corruption in some kind and the size of the land helped in this respect but the outlook at the time being wasn't favorable.
Changing allegiance the Warlords was also requested marching their armed forces to a Koumintang Barracks for upgraded training – and indoktrination of political values; which in the end had some Warlords leave the country for greener pastures. Anyway the influx of semi-trained troop formations now under the German regime had begun fuelling new more capable reserve formations into Chiangs core Army.

The Japanese Navy was still weary of the Soviet Submarines but the Chinese Navy also made itself felt with their few former Italian Submarines; only a minor threat but did warrant attention by the Japanese which still had much difficulty in hunting down Submarines at sea.
The Japanese Army besides fighting the Korean uprising had to deal with the well-trained Chinese Army and the numbers of the Soviet Red Army.
The Japanese were losing the battle but the mountainous terrain of Korea aided the defences.
It would be several months before the Japanese realized the battle lost and began planning their withdrawal from Korea. By the time of which the Chinese were calling the Japanese cards. The Soviets being stuck in the mountains fighting a battle they still weren't prepared for and Zhukov beginning to fear for his future.
That situation was a revelation to many once news came around – seemed the Sovietunion wasn't the remake of the Russian Steamroller of old. China however seemed to be the place to be.

[575]

East Africa (may have finished 1942)
Post the Yugoslavia War of 1935 defeat and fall of Mussolini Italy had negotiated a withdrawal treaty with the Empire of Ethiopia regarding Eritrea during 1940. Having tried negotiating a settlement of withdrawal with other colonial powers in area – Britain and France but not receiving any interest in the colonies of Eritrea and Somalia.
Even if the Swedish von Rosen Family had some interest in Ethiopia it had no such in Eritrea – at least not enough to try get the Swedish Government join into talks with Italy.
Seeing no positive outcome to its deplomatic feelers in Europe Italy then approached the Ethiopian Empire and found some interest in replacing it in Eritrea mainly due to the prospect of getting Red Sea access though France hadn't been adverse about trade passing through Djibouti as long as some due's paid.
Treaty had been entered 1940 and even if finding its way to the public and the League of Nations no notice had really been offered it.
With the Italians hitting jackpot in Libya the Italian outlook changed; instead of the withdrawal this year from Eritrea Italy now wanted to stay or at least keep a few ports on the Red Sea.
Suffice to say Ethiopia was pissed off losing its port and took the issue to LoN where Italy made a lot of fuss though insisted on keeping Eritrea and the rest of the General Assembly hardly noticing what was going on but using its time on China and the Sovietunion accusations regarding Soviet occupied part of Machouko and the China – Sovietunion – Japan War and Korean Uprising; nobody wanted to listen to silliness in an East African backwater (literally). Though of course the Communist International made appropriate ramblings on Imperialist Italy extorting the hapless farmers and workers of Eritrea – not mentioning Imperial Ethiopia of course!
By the end of the year Ethiopia was searching the markets for Aircraft and munitions which were few due to the ongoing Far East War and prior Chinese rearmament. In the end Ethiopia ended up buying dated aircraft from Yugoslavia and Romania and some not so dated from France all facilitated by the von Rosen Family – a cadet branch of the Swedish Royal house of members having married monastically with some getting their nobility bestowed by the Belgian Royal House; European Royal lines being as convoluted as ever.
The Royal connection to both Sweden and Belgium did serve the von Rosens well as they managed to secure rather clandestinely some SAAB Jaktfalk fighter aircraft with the Hispano-Suiza engine upgrade and get FN machineguns and autocannon to arm these.
Even if outdated the heavy armaments and with proper handling by experience pilots would certainly give the Italians a tough time.

[stevep]

  575 ,

  Catching up after a few days off.  Some interesting developments, including the collapse of the Japanese plans on the mainland.  If as sounds likely their going to lose Korea who ends up with it?  Some puppet state allied possibly to both Japan and China to keep the Soviets out?  Also what happens in Japan now?  Its a huge kick in the face for the militarists, especially in the army so could their influence be greatly reduced or do they try and double down?  I assume they still keep Taiwan?

  Which also makes me think are the Philippines still heading for independence and if so what happens to them?  Do the US retain any basing rights?  Do either of them still see Japan as a threat?

  In terms of the nuclear deal are the Scandinavians working with both Germany and Britain?  It sounds like Germany is sending some scientists and Britain is providing some financial support but are the two of them aware their both working with the Scandinavians and if so is there much cross-fertilization between Berlin and London?  I wouldn't rule out the French here as the next generation of Curies were pretty heavily involved in their programme OTL and are likely to be so here.  Especially since after the success v Mussolini Paris is probably feeling rather bullish on securing its future as a great power.

  Also with the differences in political development, especially with the Nazis being just a brief but nasty footnote where is Albert E now?  He's unlikely to be willing to take part in a bomb programme but likely to be influential in the field.

  Anyway good to see this more active again.

  Steve

[575]

Aug 16, 2022 17:37:05 GMT stevep said:

  575 ,

  Catching up after a few days off.  Some interesting developments, including the collapse of the Japanese plans on the mainland.  If as sounds likely their going to lose Korea who ends up with it?  Some puppet state allied possibly to both Japan and China to keep the Soviets out?  Also what happens in Japan now?  Its a huge kick in the face for the militarists, especially in the army so could their influence be greatly reduced or do they try and double down?  I assume they still keep Taiwan?

  Which also makes me think are the Philippines still heading for independence and if so what happens to them?  Do the US retain any basing rights?  Do either of them still see Japan as a threat?

  In terms of the nuclear deal are the Scandinavians working with both Germany and Britain?  It sounds like Germany is sending some scientists and Britain is providing some financial support but are the two of them aware their both working with the Scandinavians and if so is there much cross-fertilization between Berlin and London?  I wouldn't rule out the French here as the next generation of Curies were pretty heavily involved in their programme OTL and are likely to be so here.  Especially since after the success v Mussolini Paris is probably feeling rather bullish on securing its future as a great power.

  Also with the differences in political development, especially with the Nazis being just a brief but nasty footnote where is Albert E now?  He's unlikely to be willing to take part in a bomb programme but likely to be influential in the field.

  Anyway good to see this more active again.

  Steve

stevep;

Now who woke You???

About Japan - I thought that given the right turn of events and loads of Stalinist agitators the Koreans just might have attempted rebellion at least with both Sovietunion and China on their borders. They might not love either but instead of the Japanese yoke!

With the Soviet tanks and the Chinese Phoenix on their heels I guess the Japanese Army will want to shed off blame but something will have to happen in Japanese politics - not my strong subject though. Of course I'll have to look into it.

The IJN may come out of this rather unscated though the loss of a Battleship and not being able to protect transport shipping from Japan will draw flak from the IJA - infighting of course on the menu. Lets see. (I never do a script before jumping into the deep end - learned to swim decades ago. Hence also my at times drawn out TLs)

My thought about the US-Japan relationship was along the lines of (rather just last week crystallized as) wow the Chinese are kicking Japanese ass - we don't have too and possibly they'd be able to handle Stalin too. Lets hand them some more modern A/C.

So no US fear of Japan meddling in Philippines but stil the locals will want independence. Will have to give it some thought. Too.

Bohr's Nuklear Bomb! Well the Scandinavians/Nordics invited the Brits, Germans and French to come along. The first two headed somewhat hesitantly into cooperation as described though the Germans will soon get deeper into it - it's in the pipeline. France is still sitting on the fence pushing everybody climbing up there down; perhaps the Curie's will try influence the French Government. Have to look a few things more up but Your question have seeded a thought - needs nursing and some looking up facts. (damn thing about writing AH there's so much to look up)

So Germany will enter the boat and well it might just draw the Brits into it too - Bohr's Institute at Copenhagen was a magnet for Scientist's during the inter-war years those have been added to so he will have influenced a lot. Einstein of course will be visiting Bohr from time to time for scientific discussions - and not about the Anarkist's Cookbook!

Thanks a lot - its the Summer Holiday season so I'm off work and have time for getting inspiration - and time for writing such down.

[stevep]

  575 ,

   Well there's been another spell of very hot weather and my PC struggles a bit in this sort of weather so been doing the minimal amount on it for the past few days.  However its been a bit cooler and also we're had this strange thing the past couple of days of water falling from the sky.   Need a hell of a lot more to fill up the reservoirs and rescue what can be of this years crops as well as put some of those fires out plus its made things rather humid and sticky.  However is cooler than the baking heat of the past few weeks so back into action.

  Steve