gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 3, 2021 9:30:52 GMT
In 2016, Delaware went 53-41 for Clinton. Connecticut was 54.57 to 40.93. Illinois 55.83 to 38.76, or almost 950,000 votes. Some states do swing and change is possible. Trump winning over a million additional votes in a solid Democratic state needs a bit of explanation. Just like how Florida flipped blue in 2008 and 2012. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 3, 2021 10:03:45 GMT
Florida is a modern swing state due to its varied populace and quite different locales. It was close in 2004, ever so slightly closer in 2000, went for Clinton in 96 and Bush in 92.
I don’t think you can really compare it solid Democratic heartland states.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 3, 2021 10:40:31 GMT
Given the radically different circumstances I can see Trump winning, especially with so many people not dying because of the combination of the pandemic and his neglect of its impact.  Going from his minority in 2016 to such a clear majority in 2020 is rather difficult to believe, especially given how divisive a character he is. Even with the sexual and religious bias you would get against Buttigieg as a candidate.
How well the US - and large areas of the world - will fare with the country basically under a one party state, especially when that party is a hard line one. Not to mention all the steps their likely to take maintaining their power - i.e. more voter blocking, gerrymandering etc. There is the additional danger mentioned that if the Democrats decide they need to go extreme as well it leaves the centre empty. That would be a foolish decision as it would isolate them as well but its a possibility.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 3, 2021 10:45:54 GMT
Given the radically different circumstances I can see Trump winning, especially with so many people not dying because of the combination of the pandemic and his neglect of its impact. Going from his minority in 2016 to such a clear majority in 2020 is rather difficult to believe, especially given how divisive a character he is. Even with the sexual and religious bias you would get against Buttigieg as a candidate.
How well the US - and large areas of the world - will fare with the country basically under a one party state, especially when that party is a hard line one. Not to mention all the steps their likely to take maintaining their power - i.e. more voter blocking, gerrymandering etc. There is the additional danger mentioned that if the Democrats decide they need to go extreme as well it leaves the centre empty. That would be a foolish decision as it would isolate them as well but its a possibility.
If Trump didn't lose the Libertarian vote in OTL, he could have won by slight margin. Here IITL, since there is no COVID-19 and thereby butterflying Trump's neglect, Trump has more voters who did switch to Biden. The Libertarian vote is like only 1%. Most of them voted for Jo Jorgensen because Trump did not adhere to his promises of protecting the 2nd Amendment. How Donald Trump Lost the 2020 Election |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 3, 2021 11:33:12 GMT
Given the radically different circumstances I can see Trump winning, especially with so many people not dying because of the combination of the pandemic and his neglect of its impact. Going from his minority in 2016 to such a clear majority in 2020 is rather difficult to believe, especially given how divisive a character he is. Even with the sexual and religious bias you would get against Buttigieg as a candidate.
How well the US - and large areas of the world - will fare with the country basically under a one party state, especially when that party is a hard line one. Not to mention all the steps their likely to take maintaining their power - i.e. more voter blocking, gerrymandering etc. There is the additional danger mentioned that if the Democrats decide they need to go extreme as well it leaves the centre empty. That would be a foolish decision as it would isolate them as well but its a possibility.
If Trump didn't lose the Libertarian vote in OTL, he could have won by slight margin. Here IITL, since there is no COVID-19 and thereby butterflying Trump's neglect, Trump has more voters who did switch to Biden. The Libertarian vote is like only 1%. Most of them voted for Jo Jorgensen because Trump did not adhere to his promises of protecting the 2nd Amendment. How Donald Trump Lost the 2020 Election
He does make the assumption that all Libertarian are hard line gun supporters which I'm not sure is the case? Also the big issue wasn't the hard right groups that didn't vote for Trump but the larger number of non-extreme groups that did vote for Biden after 4 years of Trump. At least some of this would still occur given the damage that Trump is likely to have done with his trade wars and erratic decision making.
As I say, if there had been no pandemic then he could well have won but I doubt that disaffected hard right groups were a major factor in the decision.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 3, 2021 12:06:06 GMT
If Trump didn't lose the Libertarian vote in OTL, he could have won by slight margin. Here IITL, since there is no COVID-19 and thereby butterflying Trump's neglect, Trump has more voters who did switch to Biden. The Libertarian vote is like only 1%. Most of them voted for Jo Jorgensen because Trump did not adhere to his promises of protecting the 2nd Amendment. How Donald Trump Lost the 2020 Election
He does make the assumption that all Libertarian are hard line gun supporters which I'm not sure is the case? Also the big issue wasn't the hard right groups that didn't vote for Trump but the larger number of non-extreme groups that did vote for Biden after 4 years of Trump. At least some of this would still occur given the damage that Trump is likely to have done with his trade wars and erratic decision making.
As I say, if there had been no pandemic then he could well have won but I doubt that disaffected hard right groups were a major factor in the decision.
I was told far-right groups and pro-2A camps lost faith in Trump somewhere in 2019, coinciding with his bump stocks ban. So that's why they didn't make reelection memes for him unlike in 2015. Plus jokes get stale overtime. That's why you didn't see Kekistan and Pepe The Frog memes in 2020. Not to mention, the right as a whole suffered infighting among factions especially with the rise of QAnon and their "You're either with us or against us." attitude. So yeah, despite the right saying that the Trump army would be bigger in 2020, the pandemic and George Floyd didn't make it happen. |
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Post by american2006 on Jun 3, 2021 15:36:34 GMT
1. Indeed no George Floyd protests. 2. I'll probably go back in and do a mass thing for cultural events. 3. Yes the Abraham accords occur earlier as Trump isn't bogged down with covid. 4. A Gabbard-Yang ticket. I'm fairly conserative so I'd actually vote for that. 5. Trump ends out a whole lot better. The biggest winners of this timeline is Trump, Trump, and Trump I'm amazed at #3. The Abraham records is much more expanded to include Algeria and Indonesia. For #4, do you think Gabbard-Yang have a chance to defeat Trump? Even though I'm not American, I was rooting for Tulsi Gabbard since she isn't a hardline left-leaning Democrat. #5. Alt-right groups be like: Curbstomp battle. Four years more baby! I'm fairly conservative and a Gabbard-Yang ticket appeals to me. It definitely has a strong chance. What is the reasoning behind Trump winning Illinois, Delaware and Connecticut? In 2016, Delaware went 53-41 for Clinton. Connecticut was 54.57 to 40.93. Illinois 55.83 to 38.76, or almost 950,000 votes. Some states do swing and change is possible. Trump winning over a million additional votes in a solid Democratic state needs a bit of explanation. It's a couple of things. First off, voter turnout is different then in 2016, conservative voters turnout in much higher numbers then in 2016 (along par with our timeline) while Democrat turnout drops some. Additionally, high crime rates and general redification of the rust belt have a factor, and Buttigieg being a political unknown leads to many people not voting. It's still a stretch, by no means would I argue that it's not. '' Maybe he comes out stronger in this timeline? Although I do not see IL change into Red quickly. IL is a very democrat state. That's fair, but again its really more about turnout. Turnout in Chicago is depressed and most blue voters don't turnout because the Democrats nominee is a relatively politically unknown moderate. I hate to say it but Buttigieg being gay might hurt him with some voters, sadly. |
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Post by american2006 on Jun 3, 2021 15:38:54 GMT
Florida is a modern swing state due to its varied populace and quite different locales. It was close in 2004, ever so slightly closer in 2000, went for Clinton in 96 and Bush in 92. I don’t think you can really compare it solid Democratic heartland states. Michigan voted for Obama by 15 points in 2008, 6 points in 2012, and then to Trump by under a point in 2016. That's about a 7 point difference from (compared to Clinton) a Progressive Obama to a Moderate Clinton. That and Obama excited voters, as did Trump. That is something Clinton and Buttigieg did not. Without COVID-19, Trump's presidency will also be seen as successful, with the stock market hitting all time highs nearly daily and average household income much higher then the start of the Trump presidency. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 3, 2021 15:40:13 GMT
My gut feeling is that it is a stretch to flip Illinois. There might, might be a chance to flip one of the New England states, but even that might be a bit too much.
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Post by american2006 on Jun 3, 2021 15:45:42 GMT
My gut feeling is that it is a stretch to flip Illinois. There might, might be a chance to flip one of the New England states, but even that might be a bit too much. New Hampshire and Maine won't be a stretch, Conneticut might be one. Massachusetts and Rhode Island, I'd need to have one of there counties flip red first. Vermont is definitely a no. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 3, 2021 20:30:40 GMT
That's fair, but again its really more about turnout. Turnout in Chicago is depressed and most blue voters don't turnout because the Democrats nominee is a relatively politically unknown moderate. I hate to say it but Buttigieg being gay might hurt him with some voters, sadly. Probably people got tired of the constant crime rate and black-on-black violence on the poverty-striken areas. Does not help the mayor of Chicago is a hypocrite. Also Buttigieg being gay will actually help him in areas that vote blue because of progressivism and SJW ideals. EDIT: How does Black Lives Matter materialize here without the George Floyd incident? |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 12, 2021 16:49:18 GMT
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Post by american2006 on Jun 12, 2021 17:40:39 GMT
As in a Trump re-Election or some other aspect? |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 13, 2021 1:49:15 GMT
As in a Trump re-Election or some other aspect? Definitely a Trump reelection. So how does Black Lives Matter and anti-cop protests occur in this timeline without George Floyd's death? |
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Post by american2006 on Jun 13, 2021 3:11:39 GMT
As in a Trump re-Election or some other aspect? Definitely a Trump reelection. So how does Black Lives Matter and anti-cop protests occur in this timeline without George Floyd's death? There are protests (much smaller) centered in Detroit but else wise BLM and the like never rise to prominence in 2020 at least. |
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Going from his minority in 2016 to such a clear majority in 2020 is rather difficult to believe, especially given how divisive a character he is. Even with the sexual and religious bias you would get against Buttigieg as a candidate.