Afghan coup of 1973 fails.

[kyuzoaoi]

I wonder what would happend if the 1973 Afghan coup fails. Would it be a more stable country? Or it will be like Iran or the Taliban but early?

[gillan1220]

Jul 1, 2021 4:17:13 GMT kyuzoaoi said:

I wonder what would happend if the 1973 Afghan coup fails. Would it be a more stable country? Or it will be like Iran or the Taliban but early?

Probably like Iran. There would be a purge of the government to find anyone associated with the coup.

[La Rouge Beret]

That's an interesting question and my understanding is that the Shah was probably the last figure that was accepted by all of the ethnic groups within Afghanistan. From that point onwards it would be promising, given the different cultural, religious & linguistic groups; a devolved federal structure represents the best path.

What does it look like? I really don't know, except for that it is likely better than OTL.

[griml0ck122]

My understanding is that the King wanted to modernise, but slowly and limited to the cities. Without his removal, or any future leader meddling in the affairs of rural Afghanistan, I guess it would slowly modernise, but remain a backwater nation that no one can find on a map. Maybe ethnic tensions would boil over with outside influence but without the Soviets invading to shatter the country into pieces I doubt it. It's nice to think that without the coup, everything is fine.

[stevep]

Aug 3, 2021 5:57:32 GMT griml0ck122 said:

My understanding is that the King wanted to modernise, but slowly and limited to the cities. Without his removal, or any future leader meddling in the affairs of rural Afghanistan, I guess it would slowly modernise, but remain a backwater nation that no one can find on a map. Maybe ethnic tensions would boil over with outside influence but without the Soviets invading to shatter the country into pieces I doubt it. It's nice to think that without the coup, everything is fine.

  That would be the best option for all.  Although if the Iranian revolution and then religious coup occurs there's likely to be tension between it and Pakistan especially if not also the Soviets and all are likely to seek influence in Afghanistan.  None of them want a moderate and slowly modernizing state that is neither religion dominated - albeit that the country is still going to be strongly Muslim in character - nor left wing [in the Soviet case]. 

  Probably if Pakistan doesn't become too militantly religious, which might have been pushed in part by Iran and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the country might also continue to attract western hippy types and some more conventional tourists due to the beauty of much of the country although again this could be something that prompts internal religious extremism.

[TheRomanSlayer]

It could also prevent the Soviets from laying the groundwork for the military intervention that eventually contributed to the downfall of the Soviet Union.