WW2 Victory

[simon darkshade]

At what point do chaps think that Allied victory in the Second World War was assured?

I have a position on it, but would like to see those of others before I explain it.

[stevep]

Aug 1, 2021 17:24:44 GMT simon darkshade said:

At what point do chaps think that Allied victory in the Second World War was assured?

I have a position on it, but would like to see those of others before I explain it.

  It depends on what's meant by assured and also the interpretation of certain events.  For instance I've been debating on "The Sietch" with a couple of people who have argued that Germany nearly forced a Soviet collapse in 1942 which would have prompted the US to make peace, forcing Britain to do likewise.  If the 1st happens I could see the US trying the 2nd but I suspect that Hitler, with Russia defeated would be unwilling to accept any peace without ruinous terms for the allies.  Especially since those same people seem to think they could happily continue the war with Japan.

  The more traditional view is that once the USSR survived 41 and the US was brought into the allied camp then the war was lost by the Axis.  Especially given the incompetence of the Axis leaders and their unwillingness to compromise made a war to the end pretty much certain.

  Its possible that some later event or sequence could prompt a peace settlement.  I once posted a short scenario when the US insistence on a landing in N France in 43, which meant no Torch landings lead to a series of disasters that prompted Stalin to seek a separate peace - in part in fear that after the failure of the allied landing in 43 the western allies would leave the Soviets to fight the full weight of the European Axis, especially since butterflies from the western changes had made things better in the east for the Germans.  In turn there would be a danger then that the US would seek peace as well and under those circumstances, having suffered markedly more losses by late 43 would accept it. 

  However the odds are increasingly against the Axis from 10-12-41 after the German dow on the US.

 

[lordroel]

Aug 1, 2021 17:24:44 GMT simon darkshade said:

At what point do chaps think that Allied victory in the Second World War was assured?

I have a position on it, but would like to see those of others before I explain it.

For me when the United States entered the war.

[belushitd]

From an economic standpoint, Allied victory over all three axis powers was assured with the German declaration of war delivered on December 11. From December 7 until December 11, the US was just at war with Japan. It was entirely possible for Germany to not declare war on the US at all, forcing some very odd alliance machinations.

For example.... If Germany and Italy don't declare war, perhaps the US assumes all responsibility for the war west of Suez, allowing the British Empire to focus on Germany. I realize that the US was not in any position to do this immediately, and it would take almost a year to really "take over". Picture this.... Rather than building up for Operation Torch, all the US men and material could have been sent west and turned the tide at Guadacanal FAR earlier. Should the Germans continue the status quo in the Atlantic, the US doesn't need to keep all the destroyers and destroyer escorts there for convoy duties. They can send them west as well. It would be very interesting to see what would happen in that case. I think you'd see the Royal and Canadian navies getting even larger due to lend lease DD and DEs, to allow them to escort their own convoys. With the US running the war from Suez to Panama, the British Empire would be able to concentrate on Germany, and perhaps do a reduced Operation Torch on its own, maybe by mid 1943? Perhaps take Sicily by the end of 1943? I'm not sure the British Empire has the stones to invade Italy on its own due to lack of manpower. I am assuming here that lend lease would continue to Russia and the British Empire, with the US ignoring attacks on American merchantmen as they did from 1939 to 1941 IOTL.

End result, Japan gets smashed as soon as the men can be trained and equipment can be built. This could conceivably knock close to a year off the Pacific War. I strongly suspect that at that time, the US pivots to the Atlantic and issues a declaration of war against Germany and Italy. Germany and Russia have bled each other for another year or two, with it being possible that the Germans have held the Russians further west than they did IRL, as by September 1944, there's not been an invasion of France, and possibly not even an invasion of the Italian mainland.

Belushi TD

[simon darkshade]

US declaration of war signed, sealed and boxed up what was already inevitable.

German defeat was the most likely outcome from September 1940 or indeed even before, but progressive American involvement made it certain. Destroyers for Bases set out the course and Lend Lease finalised it. In the spirit of conservatism, I’d therefore say March 1941.